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Hi Folks, This thread is created to discuss the expected value of gold 5 years down the line. I have got a very interesting questing on my mind so I have decided to share the same with you with the help TL. Will gold prices double five years from now ? What do you think ? Why? Shouldn't stocks be flying? Shouldn't gold be closing over $1,800...and on its way to the moon? This was on the day after the Fed announced recently the biggest program of money-printing ever undertaken by any government in history. Forty billion dollars per month. Maybe forever. Or at least until the presidential election. If it continues, that's $480 billion per year. The Federal Reserve website shows current assets of $2.8 trillion. Add nearly $500 billion per year...and it will take scarcely 5 years to double the Fed's assets, which are the foundation of America's money supply. So far, gold has tracked the increase in Fed assets. Broadly, both doubled over the last five years. Does this mean the price of gold will double five years from now?

Success is measured by your current status. You've had losses (we've all had) I was trading in the famed flash crash of 2010 and lost, that was a lesson for me to study volatility and history. These two aspects of the market are absolutely essential to study. I believe personally that we are heading into a deflationary economic situation and would advise you to not be long on the majority of your positions, its already a traders market. 40k in capital is a moderate sum to have aside, remember that being on the sidelines waiting for the right trade is a position in itself. He who runs from a fight lives to fight another day is an adage ive come to appreciate in my current trading of commodities. Common and cliche as it may seem too, "dont put all your eggs in one basket" Also, if you have gains, take them. Cut your losses at 7% Your current status is not giving up, that is awesome I highly respect that. Its like a marathon runner getting back up after falling and losing his first place. Be selective with your trades, small gains make large profits. Another thing to remember, during the gold rushes throughout history, men looked for the large gold nuggets, only to leave disheartened from the area, while others found "flour gold" this is microscopic gold that others passed over. An adage that came from that profit was , "Gold flour makes gold cakes" Small victories are your key. http://www.qdrv.com

I've recently been buying gold because its so cheap right now, just hope it doesn't continue the down trend. But what do you guys think about silver at the moment, good move to buy?

Interestingly during the roaring 20's of the past century, the world saw an economic high, in which underlying economic indicators were mainly ignored. People do not complain when they are making money, the wise investor or trader knows that when people are ambitious be careful. What happened to peoples fear of the domino effect of other debt riddled states? Today the prime minister of russia warns of a "deep recession" in 2015. Japan is deep in recession as well. Also according to bloomberg news, the Jerome Levy forecasting center sees a 65% chance of a recession in 2015. Quote David Levy the current chairman of the Jerome Levy forecasting center: "Clearly the direction of most of the recent global economic news suggest movement toward a 2015 downturn" end quote. Why is this forecasting center any different than the others that may say the complete opposite? Such as Morgan Stanley who predicts a longer run for the market. They most definitely have weight in words since their founder called the 1929 Great Stock Market Crash. He wisely sold his stocks when he saw indicators that pointed to an unsound market. What do you think? Will the market make a correction in 2015? Yes/No & why

http://www.QDRV.com'>http://www.QDRV.com Notice the DJI month chart attachment. Here we see the RSI with the default 14 input, notice its extremely overbought (current 73.94) , we are in for F = Gm1m2/r2, or also known as the gravity formula, "what goes up must come down". Get ready for a reversal. http://www.QDRV.com

Trading With Small Account Sizes Now that regular forex trading activity has made its way into everyday households, retail traders have been able to enter the market with the ability to execute high leverage levels with very few limitations. But the unfortunate reality is that most forex traders are caught up in the hype and believe that quick riches are possible even when starting with the smallest account sizes. We have even started to see forex brokers offering micro accounts with minimum deposit sizes of $25 or less. This has democratized the trading environment but it has also made many traders with small account sizes vulnerable to quick market reversals that can wipe out an entire savings balance. For these reasons, it makes sense to assess the rules and tools smaller traders must utilize in order to stay in the game and keep their accounts growing. There are many market experts that will actually suggest there are no real differences when trading, and that a smaller account should be approached no differently than large institutional trading accounts. But while this is largely accurate, there are still some things that smaller traders must keep in mind in order to avoid a margin call situation that could deplete your entire trading account. Starting With Realistic Expectations The first problem that plagues most new traders is the problem of unrealistic expectations. This problem can take many different forms. But in most cases, you will see a new trader with a small account get a few successful trades in a row and then start to expect that those results will be duplicated forever. These traders will then start to do the math and figure out how much money can be made each day, week, month, or year. This is destructive, however, because it is taking your mind off of what you should actually be doing (analyzing the market and isolating high-probability opportunities) and centering it instead on scenarios that could make you rich with little effort. Markets are never this consistent, and there will be always be situations where you do better or worse than you have originally expected. Trading projections are generally not very useful (especially in the early stages) because there are going to be many events for which you are unprepared and many market scenarios that might not necessarily conform to your original trading plan. The unfortunate reality is that you are not going to be able to turn a $500 account into $1 million in a month or a year. Even if you max-out on your available leverage, these are unrealistic expectations that should be disregarded immediately if you plan on being an active trader for the long run. Large/Small Account Sizes: Similarities And Differences At the same time, markets are markets and trading is trading. The argument can be made that a $500 account should be traded no differently than a $1 million account (other than the fact that trade sizes should be proportionately smaller). There is a good deal of truth to this, because the probability for a given chart pattern will not change depending on the amount of money that is in your account. In these ways, large and small account sizes are essentially no different as long as you keep your risk percentages to appropriate levels. (Conventional wisdom here suggests that you should never risk more than 2% in any one position.) It is also important to remember the characteristics of the markets you are trading. One example would be differences in the ways gold prices vary relative to currencies. When viewing the market in this matter, the real issue is the strength of your strategy rather than the size or your position. The key here is to view your account in terms of percentages, rather than in Dollar figures. In other words, look to make back your 2% on the trade, rather than trying to make $100 or $1,000 on your trade. It is amazing how often this mistake is made, as traders start to look at the forex market as a source of income rather than as a living organism that does not care about whether you win or lose (or if you have made enough money to cover your monthly bills). It is also another reason why options trading strategies might even make more sense for new traders. Forex trading simply doesn't work like that and if you expect to stay in the game you will need to view your balance in terms of percentages rather than as a potential Dollar figure. Stop Losses and Market Anomalies Large accounts are better positioned and better able to weather market anomalies. As a personal example, I remember being short the EUR/CHF when the Swiss National Bank (SNB) decided to construct a price floor at 1.20. This was done to prevent excessive strength in the CHF but the move was largely unexpected and took many traders (myself included) by complete surprise. I was in front of my trading station when this occurred and I saw prices climb by more than a thousand pips in minutes. I did not have a stop loss in place when this move occurred and this created the biggest loss of my trading career. Fortunately, my position sizing in this case was relatively small and I was able to avoid the total depletion of my account. (Chart Source: CornerTrader) But what would have happened here if I was just getting started? Would I have been able to withstand the losses taken by such an unexpected move? Prior to that day, I never would have guessed that markets (especially the EUR/CHF, traditionally a low-volatility forex pair) could move 1,000 pips in a day -- in any direction. Of course, I was wrong in this case and the mistake turned out to be very costly. For these reasons, stop loss placement is much more important for those with small account sizes as there is much less flexibility and margin for error. The market can (and eventually will) surprise you and destroy your expectations. For those with small trading accounts, proper preparation here (a stop loss) is vital and could potentially be the only thing that keeps your account active when a market anomaly occurs. Conclusion: Does Size Matter? So here we come to the ultimate question: Does account size matter? Unfortunately, the answer is a vague ‘yes and no.’ “Having a small account size means that you will absolutely need to take certain precautionary measures (ie. having a relatively conservative stop loss that is in place),” said Sam Kikla, markets analyst at BestCredit. “This is the only way to protect your account from market anomalies that can erase all of your previous gains in short order.” Another factor to remember is that leverage is much more dangerous when your account size is small. There is absolutely no reason a trader with a $500 account should ever be taking 200:1 leverage. At this rate, it would only take a small string of losses to completely eliminate your ability to continue trading. On the plus side, smaller traders that obey these rules (and focus on percentages rather than Dollar figures) will have access to the same returns as those with institutional accounts (again, in percentage terms). The real issue here is whether or not you are taking an overly aggressive approach to your trades. This is not a viable option for those with smaller account sizes. So, there are important differences that can put smaller traders in a more difficult positions. The positive here is that most of these difficulties are removed when you keep a conservative trading approach, use active stop losses, and structure your trades so that they are working as a percentage of the whole.

TRADING GOLD “ The desire for gold is the most universal and deeply rooted commercial instinct of the human race.” Gerald M. Loeb, EVERYONE’S TALKING ABOUT GOLD – WHAT IS IT ALL ABOUT? Human beings have long valued and treasured gold for its inherent lustre and malleability. In fact, gold has been used in human commerce since the societies of the ancient Middle East over 2,500 years ago, making it the oldest form of money still recognized today.Gold’s long track record as a store of value despite wars, natural disasters, and the rise and fall of great empires means that it is generally seen as the ultimate “safe haven” asset. Therefore, it’s not surprising that interest in owning and trading in gold has skyrocketed in recent years with the onset of the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. Gold prices have risen in sympathy, hitting an all-time high above $1900 in late 2011. In this brief guide we will discuss the major forces that drive gold prices, along with some of the common methods for trading gold and a brief overview of possible trading techniques. THE MECHANICS OF GOLD TRADING Physical gold is valuable because it represents many of the qualities of ideal money. It is scarce, durable, portable, uniform across the world, and widely accepted—in part due to its long history of being widely accepted. However, in the current digital world, few traders actually take physical possession of gold bullion. Instead, most traders focus on trading the current “spot” gold price, which is based on the price of the most active futures contract on the COMEX (Commodity Exchange) in New York. For all intents and purposes, you can trade gold as you would any other trading instrument at GFT Markets. Two of the most common ways to trade the price of gold are through CFDs or spread betting. Both of these products offer leverage, meaning that traders can control £1,000 of gold with less than £1,000 of margin. Leverage can offer great potential for profit if the market moves in your favor, but it can also lead to a large, rapid loss if the market moves against you. Therefore, it is essential to practice good risk management and place a stop loss with every trade. FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE ITS PRICE Gold is one of the most difficult financial assets to value. As we alluded to above, gold is similar to a currency, such as the U.S. dollar or the euro, in many ways; unlike these more commonly traded currencies, though, gold is not supported by an underlying economy of workers, companies, and infrastructure. In other ways, gold is more similar to a commodity like oil or corn because it comes from the ground and has standardized physical characteristics. Unlike other commodities, however, gold often fluctuates independent of its industrial supply and demand. One of the most reliable historical determinants of gold’s price is the level of real interest rates, or the interest rate less inflation. If you think about it, this relationship is relatively straightforward. When real interest rates are low, investment alternatives like cash and bonds tend to provide a low or negative return, pushing investors to seek alternative ways to protect the value of their wealth. On the other hand, when real interest rates are high, strong returns are possible in cash and bonds and the appeal of holding a yellow metal with few industrial uses diminishes. One easy way to see a proxy for real interest rates in the United States, the world’s largest economy, is to look at the yield on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). GOLD TRADING STRATEGIES As with any trading instrument, there is no one “best” way to trade gold. Many traders from other markets have found that the technical trading strategies they employ on other instruments can easily be adapted to the gold market, especially given gold’s tendency to form durable trends. That said, longer-term traders could go a step further by using a filter based on the level of real interest rates discussed above. The below chart shows the relationship between gold prices and the yield on TIPS, a proxy for real interest rates in the United States. The inverse correlation is obvious, but it looks like the recent gold rally accelerated further as real yields dropped below 1% in early 2009. A longer-term look at the relationship would reveal that gold prices generally fell in the late 1990s, for instance, which were characterized by real yields above the 1% threshold. Therefore, longer-term traders may want to consider only buy trade opportunities if real yields are below 1%, a level which has historically been supportive of gold prices. Conversely, if real yields rise above 2%, traders may want to focus only on sell trades. The ability to use a filter based on real interest rates is one of the unique features that long-term traders can use to gain an edge when trading gold, but the trading strategies and opportunities in trading the world’s oldest “currency” are truly limitless.

One of the main reasons we trade both individual stocks and ETFs in this swing trading newsletter is that trading the right combination of the two equity types increases our odds of being able to outperform the stock market at any given time, regardless of the dominant market trend. In strongly uptrending markets, we primarily focus on buying leading individual stocks (mostly small to mid-cap) because they have the greatest chance of outperforming the gains of the main stock market indexes. However, when the overall broad market begins to weaken, or enters into an extended period of range-bound trading, we reduce our exposure in leading stocks when they begin failing their breakouts and running out of momentum. Thereafter, we have several choices: 1.) Sit primarily in cash 2.) Begin initiating short positions in the weakest stocks 3.) Seek to trade ETFs with a low correlation to the direction of the overall stock market. Most the time, we do a combination of these three things in weak or weakening markets, the proportion of which is dependent on overall market conditions. Since our rule-based market timing model shifted from “buy” to “neutral” mode last week, we have immediately begun easing up on long exposure of individual stocks. With the NASDAQ Composite just below near-term support of its 20-day exponential moving average, and the S&P 500 right at key, intermediate-term support of its 50-day moving average, it is fair to say the broad market has NOT yet entered into a new downtrend. As such, we are not yet aggressively looking to enter new short positions at this time. However, when our timing model is in “neutral” mode, one thing we find works very well is trading ETFs with a low correlation to the direction of the overall stock market (commodity, currency, fixed-income, and possibly international ETFs). One such example of profiting from an ETF with low correlation to the stock market has been the recent performance of the US Oil Fund ($USO). Even though both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2% last week, $USO actually gained more than 2% during the same period. Because $USO is a commodity ETF that tracks the price of crude oil, the ETF has a very low correlation to the direction of the overall stock market. As banks, hedge funds, mutual funds, and other institutions were rotating funds out of equities last week, it is quite apparent these funds were rotating into select commodity ETFs such as $USO: As you can see on the weekly chart of $USO above, the ETF is now poised to breakout to a fresh 52-week high (from a five-week base of consolidation). If it does, bullish momentum should carry the price substantially higher in the near to intermediate-term. We are already long $USO from our buy entry last month, and the ETF is presently showing an unrealized share price gain of 6.5% since our original entry. However, if you missed our initial buy entry because you are not a newsletter subscriber, you may still consider starting a new position in $USO if it breaks out above the range (existing subscribers should note our exact buy trigger, stop, and target prices for adding shares of $USO in the “watchlist” section of today’s report). Two other commodity ETFs that definitely saw the inflow of institutional funds last week were SPDR Gold Trust ($GLD) and iShares Silver Trust ($SLV), which track the prices of spot gold and silver respectively. Of these two precious metals, silver is showing the greater relative strength. Check out the weekly chart of $SLV below: Notice that $SLV has convincingly broken out above resistance of a downtrend line (dotted black line) that had been in place throughout all of 2013. That breakout above the downtrend line also coincided with a sharp move back above its 10-week moving average (roughly equivalent to the 50-day moving average on the daily chart). Furthermore, last week’s rally in $SLV was confirmed by a sharp increase in volume. This, of course, indicates institutional money flow into the ETF. Like $SLV, $GLD has also moved back above its 10-week moving average (and 50-day moving average), but $SLV showed substantially more momentum and relative strength than $GLD last week. Moreover, last week’s volume in $GLD was only on par with its 50-week average level ($SLV traded nearly double its average weekly volume). Between $GLD and $SLV, the latter is definitely more appealing to us on a technical level. Now that $SLV has confirmed its trend reversal on the weekly chart, and has also formed two “higher highs,” we will be stalking $SLV for a low-risk buy entry in the coming days. Ideally, we would like to see $SLV retrace back down to near the prior downtrend line (which has now become the new support level). However, even if $SLV does not pull back that much, we will be looking for either the formation of a bull flag type pattern on its daily chart, OR a pullback that forms a bullish reversal candle (at which time we would look to buy above that day’s high in the following session). To reiterate, $SLV is NOT actionable at the moment because we do not chase stocks and ETFs that have already broken out too much above resistance. Nevertheless, most breakouts are followed by a pullback shortly thereafter, or at the very least, a short-term period of consolidation (such as a bull flag). As always, will be sure to give subscribing members of our swing trading service a heads up if/when we add $SLV to our watchlist as an “official” swing trade setup. In the meantime, don’t forget we are looking to add to $USO if it breaks out above the high of its recent consolidation. We are definitely seeing the rotation of institutional funds back into the commodities markets, which we plan to take advantage of and profit from.

Old, reliable, forex broker with two platforms. Streamster - Awarded for Best Retail Platform in 2013 with integrated chat channels with traders and support. Also MT4 world known trading platform. Contests: - Facebook based weekly forecast forecast contest with weekly prize of $100. - Master Of The Month, mothly prize of $100 for best virtual trader.

Private Currencies tend to be backed by commodities (such as gold or silver) so there there is some validity to their use in trading. Backing these currencies with commodities will increase the security of the currency and protect against inflation changes.

The Gold Standard is the first example of a formalized currency exchange system in human history. The system was largely abandoned, however, because of the necessity for country to keep large Gold reserves in order to maintain currency values.

Gold is generally thought of as a hedge against inflation and market instability as it is one of the most well-established ways of storing value that is not currency based.

In My personal views Gold posted its Short term Low on last Tuesday which was 1663. NOw if it will close above 1730 then it will be move again throughout 1800 or more.on 1730 its 50% retracement will be complete and if it will fail to break that level than we can open our sell again for 1670 or 1660.

I just want to Buy Gold Spot @ 1690 with the stop loss of @ 1685 and take Profit on 1705..is this good or bad...i just want a Second opinion...

Dow: Basically, we're in for a major crash very soon. (possibly the largest in known history)... What would invalidate that prediction is prices rising above the '07 high (about 14,200.) The basis for this prediction is that normally a crash is ABC down... But in this case it is a major impulse wave down, that started with the '08 low. Gold: To-do Silver: To-do Oil: To-do About me: I'm 15 years old and I'm interested in the markets. I don't stick to one hobby for long though... So I may not be around forever. Please feel free to correct my predictions (maturely, of course). I will adjust them to any good tips you guys make!

I traded Gold (ZG) over the past couple of weeks and found it to be much more friendly to me than index futures. I've found that most of my intraday setups work very well with a 2.50 point stop limit. That ends up being a little over one ATR for 5-minute charts, depending on the day's volatility. That's equivalent to a 50 point stop level on the YM. A 2.50 point swing is a little rough to sit through waiting for the price to turn back in my favor. I know the easy answer (and the right answer) to stop placement is to let my Reward Risk Ratio determine what my stop should be. Also, my entries could certainly be finessed, and I will focus on that next week. Just curious what kind of stop offset other gold traders use. Does this seem a little high? Thanks, Bam-Bam