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Date: 26th March 2025.   GBP Comes Under Pressure From Tough Budget and Low Inflation!   The British Pound is one of the worst-performing currencies of the day. The poor performance is due to pressure from low Inflation and what investors expect to be a tough budget. Why is the UK announcing a stricter budget and for how long will there be pressure on the GBP? Let’s find out! Reasons Investors Are Cautious About The New UK Budget The Pound has fallen 0.32% against the USD and more than 0.50% against the Australian and Canadian Dollar. The Pound is not the worst-performing currency of the day yet, but if the GBPJPY continues to decline as it has over the past hour, the GBP will be at the bottom of the table. The downward momentum is due to the inflation rate which fell from 3.00% to 2.8%. Previously investors were expecting the rate to remain at 3.00%. Many investors fear the fall in inflation is due to weak economic growth and struggling consumer demand. If this continues to be the case, the Bank of England is likely to consider a rate cut.   GBPUSD 30-Minute Chart on March 26th   The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) released its retail sales index for March today, showing a decline from -23.0 to -43.0, the lowest level in eight months, compared to the initial forecast of -28.0. According to CBI experts, businesses in the retail and wholesale sectors are experiencing pressure from global trade challenges, while the new government budget, which entails a substantial rise in debt, is further straining demand. Another key factor contributing to the Pound’s downfall is the UK’s budget and the chancellor's speech. The new UK budget will be released today and the Chancellor will speak in parliament at 12:30 GMT. Investors fear that the chancellor will announce further austerity measures and cuts to the budget. This is mainly in order to spend more on defence and adjust the budget to the weaker economic performance. The chancellor has also stated that 10,000 public sector jobs may be eliminated, with additional savings potentially coming from changes in the accounting treatment of billions of pounds reallocated from overseas aid to the defence budget. The question that traders are asking is whether the Pound will continue to decline. This will primarily depend on how strict the budget is, the chancellor's growth projections and how the bond market reacts. Nonetheless, the technical analysis continues to provide a bearish and dim bias for the upcoming 24 hours. GBPUSD - Technical Analysis Points Towards A Weakening GBP The GBPUSD has now been declining since 18:00 GMT Tuesday and failed to form a higher high. Therefore price action is partially indicating downward price movement and this signal will likely strengthen if the price falls below 1.29011. The price is also trading below the 75-bar EMA, 100-bar SMA and below the neutral level of the RSI. These factors also strengthen the bearish bias of the currency exchange. The US Dollar index is currently trading higher this morning but traders will monitor how the index will react to the European open. This is because the index has fallen 0.08% since the European Cash Open. Nonetheless, the momentum continues to remain mainly in favour of the Dollar. The only concern for traders is the support level at 1.29011.   USDX (US Dollar Index) 30-Minute Chart on March 26th   Key Takeaway Points: Pound Weakness: The British Pound is struggling due to lower inflation and budget concerns. Retail Sales Drop: The CBI retail index hit an eight-month low, signalling economic strain. Austerity Fears: Investors worry about public sector cuts and defence spending shifts. The bond market reaction will be key for the Pound. Bearish GBP Outlook: Technical indicators suggest further decline, pending budget impact. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.   Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.   Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar.   Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding of how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!   Click HERE to READ more Market news.   Michalis Efthymiou HFMarkets   Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in Leveraged Products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

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