WHY?

LOL LOL LOL Patuca you are cracking me up!!! LOL LOL LOL LOL

Thank you for your comments. Glad you have been helped some this week.

Ravin, What is your take on ES today. If you look at the last 3 or 4 daily bars how do we look for 10-26? Bullish, bearish, sideways? From a VSA standpoint.

I think we calculate the day differently. I don't understand how he does it and I can't tell him how I do it.:\

Where is dogpile. I would sure like to hear what he says about it. Stackm you got anything to say about? Or anyone else care to comment?

You know you may be right. The best we can do is try to anticipate. I would like to know why you think it is strong at this moment, if you would care to divulge that. I would be happy to divulge and tell you why I think it is weak.

Care to elaborate why OAC? If you are thinking of it breaking thru resistance well... that possibility does indeed exist however, it is still a weak market anyway you look at it. That could change tommorrow. It may not. I would be concerned with "how" it breaks thru 1530 area. If it does so with "gusto" then sure no shorting at 1533 area until the tape slows. But if it drags itself up there with the market being overall weak, ...well, I would take the chance if the tape got dull at the 1533 area. Like I said the final entries and exits are determined by the intraday tape. What are you looking at that would concern you shorting at 1530 or above?

Well thank you, Reaver. Somehere along the line we had to have something in common!

Well today 10-25 was an ideal sell day. ES traded up to 1529.50 (I forecasted I thought it would make 1529). Then she slide south reversed, traded up and closed high....a perfect setup for an SS day. You may be wondering why Taylor won't short on a sell day nor go long unless it makes a BV early in the session. Well it is a 3 day cycle system. You could have gotton away with it today but on days where there are strong abberations in the market you can get whipsawed, hard. Anyway, we have a nice setup for the SS day tomm 10-26. This is what we like to see. So, 10-26 is an SS day. I say it will probablly trade up in premarket session or after the open and could go to 1533 before declining. So, I would look at shorting around that point however, as usual you have to read the intraday tape to get exact entry points. Adjust accordingly. Cover same day on any good decline. Not that complicated. BTY my software predicted a daily range today in ES of 24.21 points. We had 24 pts. Doesn't always get that close but did this time!

Hello Patuca. Welcome. I live in Honduras....but born in the USA. Taylor was a trader back in the 50's and developed his own way of trading the markets. His book the Taylor Trading Technique explains his method. It is a hard read but if you keep at it you will begin to understand. Also read the posts here in this thread.

Pull the plug out. Live your passion... 100%. You will never be satisfied unless you do. Forget the job. If you blow out you can always go to work. But you won't blow it. Your passion will find a way for you to make it work. Living secure but having unfullfilled dreams is not good IMO. I'll take the zesto in life. If I bomb out, I'll be back. I'll claw my way back if I have to. Live on the edge. Take the chance. Don't look back. Full steam ahead. But first ask the wife!

I do see great potential in correlating VSA wiuth Taylor. I am working on that. Yes, 10-26 will be an SS day. The close today 10-25 will give you some kind of idea as to what kind of SS day 10-26 will probably be. You anticipate that and prepare to act, or not TO act, on it. NOTHING will negate it. Regardless, of what happens tomm, 10-26 is a SS day day. It may end of being a less than ideal ss day but nevertheless, it is a SS day. Taylors rules are many so in one little paragrah I can't give you the total sum of possible price senarios on the SS day 10-26 but in general the ideal pattern would be for it to close near the high today 10-25 and open up on 10-26 trade up to, or through, the high of 10-25, or the high my software picks, and then one would short it and cover on the same day. It must have this kind of action early in the session, like within first 1.5 hours, to qualify as an ideal SS day. Suppose it closes low today 10-25? That would indicate that a low open on 10-26 and a possible trading UNDER the low of 10-25 (previous day). At this point you recheck the action on 10-25. Did it violate the low of 10-24? If so, then the low open and trading down indicates that when it begins to rally it probably will not make nor penetrate the high of 10-25 which would be your shorting target on the SS day 10-26. Also, the low close on 10-25 indicates a high will probably be made last on 10-26 and that blows your shorting opportunity on 10-26. So you have to stand aside and wait for the close on 10-26. IF it closes high, and probably will, then you look to short on the next day of the cycle which is the buy day 10-29. Today is a sell day NO MATTER WHAT HAPPENS. It can be ideal, or less than ideal, but it IS a sell day. So far, at this point of the day it has been ideal. We will watch the close for final determination. You just can't take what the days action was for each day and then try to fit that into the cycle. The cycle is first. The actions are last. You have the ideal cycle and the not so ideal cycles. But Taylor teaches how to deal with them all. Almost everyone trys to make it a buy day or a sale day after the fact. That is they try to determine if today 10-25 was the ideal buy day or a sell day after the market closes and then after that determination they try to anticipate the next days action 10-26. That is all wrong and you will be forever trying to figure out each individual day and and fit it into an ideal cycle day and then try to anticipate. It won't work. I am telling you it won't work. You will finally throw your hand up in despair. People try to construct the ideal cycle by looking at each day after the close and seeing what day of the cycle it BEST expressed. I guess their thinking is you gotta make the ideal day. The problem: You will be forever rephasing and probably 90% of the time never make a complete cycle that is B, S, SS. Example: your Buy day after rephasing becomes a Sell day. You get to your new rephased sell day and at the end of it, after rephasing, it calls the sell day a buy day. Thus making your original buy day a ss day. Next time you rephase it has become a SS day. Endless confusion. Forget all that. Determine the cycle and follow it. Adjust the days as ideal, or less than ideal. but keep the cycle the same. Otherwise, on a buy day that rephases to a SS day that is less than an ideal SS day you WILL NOT be able to flip back to the previous day (which should have been a sell day but rephasing changed that) and see if a BV was made which would indicate weakness on the now rephased ss day. See what I mean. A confused mess. I keep trying to tell people but it seems most everybody wants to make every day an ideal day and label it thus. They do this after the market close and thus they try to anticipate the next day based upon any rephasing. IT WILL NOT WORK. BELIEVE ME IT WILL NOT WORK. I hope I haven't made matters worse by this explanation. It is easy to muddy the waters when explaining Taylor. In short, first determine the cycle. Then adjust each days action as ideal or less than ideal and follow the rules Taylor puts out on both. You will be pleasantly surprised how easy it becomes..

Taylor is an EOD system. First, I at the moment I only correlate VSA with Taylor in EOD time frame to confirm, or help anticipate, the price action of the Taylor cycle. That is, penetrations, failures to penetrate, possible BV, BU...etc However, another way VSA could be useful is perhaps using it as an intraday tool to help in tape reading for more exact entry points. The tape in the end determines the entry/exit points, even in Taylors system. Taylor helps decipher the direction of the main trend of the day.To be honest I do not yet know enough about VSA to use it on an intraday basis. But I see great potential in correlating VSA with Taylor. I am learning.

I meant 10-25 not 10-15 in the above quote

For 10-15 is a Taylor sell day- my take on ES is we will trade up thru and penetrate the high of 10-24 early in the session perhaps even in the pre market hours. I would sell 10-24's longs at or around 1526 to 1529 area and look for a reversal. Taylor wouldnt short this decline. So, most likely no position will be taken tomm unless it trades down first and makes a BV early in the session. Alot of demand came in today near the close however overall it is still a weak market. It remains to be seen how much demand came it before the close. I am pretty sure it was enough to push on through the high of 10-24 and perhaps take it to 1529. Just have to wait and see.

This is really neither, here nor there, and perhaps not really worth commenting on but just thought I would say that Taylor language would call it a penetration or failure to penetrate on the high and a violation on the low side.

You are welcome. Glad I was able to contribute a little here and there to help folks understand Taylor. I have gotta say you, Dogpile have been the most knowledgable on Taylor of anyone I have talked to, in any forum. I can see you have at least read the book and tried to think thru it. I think the other StuMp poster understand alot of taylor too. Most people, I would speculate, give up reading the book before they finish it the first time. In terms of the days it really doesn't matter the label of the days. They could be called Bad day, Good day, and So so day! The important thing to remember is that there is a cycle and that cycle has all the days in it and to be MOST effective you have to get the placement of each day correct in the cycle. Otherwise, one is just daytrading each day (going long or short) much like Angell said one could do. But, if you get the placement right and follow Taylors rules then one can't necessarily go long or short on any of the days. For instance, tomm is a sell day. You NEVER short a sell day..NEVER. Sell days are for selling longs you bought the previous day. Now, you are allowed to go long on a sell day but it has to be a BV (buying day low violation..i.e. violated the low of the previous day- a buy day) and it has to make that BV early in the session. So, not shorting on 10-25 can keep you from getting whiplashed. I seriousley doubt it will make a BV tomm 10-25 so the only play is to sell longs you already have (i.e. bot on 10-24). Those you chickened out on and sold early! The temptation will be to perhaps go long on the strong open tomm 10-25 but that could be a mistake. It should easily penetrate the high of today on 10-25 but it will then decline off of that. The problem is knowing when the rally will stop tomm. A long taken early tomm could get you whiplashed. You could probally capture 2 or 3 points but it would be hard to capture the main trend. I would look for it to make a higher high early taking the market on up and then retrace down to the low of the day and possibly retrace back up, and close high. That would be a great setup for 10-26 which should be an SS day in the cycle, unless something weird happens. So, I wouldn't short tomm. I would wait for 10-26 to short IF it closes high on 10-25. IF it closes low on 10-25 then we can expect further weakness and one would not go long on 10-26 (for it is a SS day and you don't go long on SS days) but wait for the following day 10-27 (buy day) to go long on a BU or lower low. Neither, would one look to short on 10-26 (an SS day) if the low was made last on 10-25 (sell day) for that would indicate that the high would be made last on 10-26 and one does not short a high made last on an SS day. Better to wait for 10-27 (buy day) and put out short on a high made first. That puts the play in your favor. Taylor was all about positioning yourself for the best play. It is possible that no plays can be made tomm 10-25 except a selling of longs bought on 10-24. It is also possible no plays can be made on 10-26 (ss day) if the high is made last on 10-25. You NEVER go long on an SS day. Your only opportunity is a short. Also, if the high is made last on the SSDay you pass the shorting opportunity thus better positioning yourself for a better short the next day 10-27 (a buy day). Sometimes, that is the price you pay for ferreting out and trading the longer trends of the day. However, most of the time there are plays to do. But it doesn't hurt to be tracking the ES, YM, ER ...etc. If can't play in one hit the other. Know what mean? See, the cycle must be kept intact and the days placed correctly to get the most out of Taylors system. If you do as Angell did then IMO you are messing with the integrity of the system and will get hammered quite abit as you get caught in intraday cross trends or currents. But, I can understand anyone playing around with Taylor theories and trying to apply them in different ways, in todays markets. I have even thought of 3 mini cycles in day. Maybe one day I will check that out. Dogpile you will understand my train of thought here in this in this post because you know something of Taylor. A newcomer to this thread who doesn't understand Taylor may well think this is gibberish. I can't help that. I would advise anyone to read Taylor.

I am glad you had a good day. I want to make a few more points about the action in ES today. When possible try to watch some premarket action especially as it is getting near the open. You will notice that Taylor called for a buy day so one would be looking to go short and could go long (one or the other or both) as long as the tape confirms the forecast. Notice, in the premarket there was a failure to penetrate the high of the previous day and shortly before the open the decline had started. All that indicates FURTHER weakness. The market is tipping it's hand and confirming a short first on a high day. However, since it didn't penetrate and the decline started just before the open you gotta pull the trigger and jump in with a short right after the open. Forget the target entries. The tape is saying pull the trigger or miss the ride. Why? Well, a failure to penetrate is a sign of weakness (to some degree), it is a buy day, the decline has started before the open Time to go for the ride. Now, since it was a buy day when the bottom hit it was time to go long. It rallied back up hard for a huge close. Heavy...heavy demand coming in before the close. Boys we are headed up tommorrow. Smart money is taking her on up on 10-25. It is a perfect setup for a sell day. Longs bought on near the bottom today can be sold at even greater gains tomm on 10-25. See what I mean by catching the main trend for the day. The cross -currents will whiplash you unless you are are very nibble on your feet. I just like taking the main trend.

RESULTS for 10-24 GE-It was as I said a SS day. It didn't quite make the target of 40.56 to short but once the tape reveals the decline has started you take it. As I said exact entries are determined by the intraday tape. It would have been hard to get in the high at 40.48 so the short would have happened about 40.43. Shortly before 2:00 one would have covered at around 39.50 thus capturing about .93. This is what Taylor is about. Ferreting out the main trend and riding along. ASTM (not ASTF like I accidently typed above in the forecast) - The only opportunity was an opportunity to short a failed penetration from the open to shortly before 11:00 it just hung out at the 1.13 1.12 area indicating it would make it to 1.16. So, it is a discretionary thing on this one. If so inclined one could have shorted at 1.13 and covered shortly after 1:00 at around 1.08 thus capturing .05. On 10,000 shares that is 500.00 minus commission. Again the point is going with main trend of the day. CRGN - Buy day - Shorting at 1.00 and cover just before 2: p.m. at .94 - again the main trend captured. Made low too late to reverse and take a long postion before the close. Captured .06 10,000 shares X .06 = 600.00 minus commissions. INSM - Buy day- No real play developed on this one. MOVI - Sell day - LOng at .14 on a BV around 11:30. Looking to weak to make it back to .17 before the day ends. Dumped at .15. 10,000 shares X .01 = 100.00 minus commisions. Again trading on the main trend of the day and going long on weakness. That can be done but one can't expect as much gain. POTP - Sell day- Another BV made early. Long position 10,000 at .30 Sell at .32 on weak market on a posible failure to rally to .34 Profit .02 = 200.00 minus commission. PTN - Sell Day - Short at .38 covered at .36. Then reverse and go long at .36 and sell at .38 5000 shares each way = .02 on short and .02 on th long for 200.00 minus comm. This was an example of out to play a narrow range penny stock with Taylor. This stock has an average range of .03 the idea is to capture a slice from the middle. Either .01 or a max of .02. However, since it was a buy day one can go both ways on it (long and/or short) depending on how price action does. In this case, price action do both early in the session thus giving one the opportunity to capture .04 for the day on a stock that averages .03. Again following the trends. CMGI - It made a BV but after noon so it was too late in the session. No play. This is how one uses Taylor to daytrade the pennies with the exception of GE above. Again, it is capturing the main move of the day and grabbing that slice in the middle. It is easier to do on pennies that have at least 300,00 shares a day and over 500,000 makes it fairly easily to play in 10,000 or 15,000 share lots. One more point I want to make. In CRGN you would be in essence risking 10,000.00 to get a return of 600.00. In GE if you risked the same 10,000.00 we are looking at about 248 shares with a gain of .93 a share = about 231.00 profit on your 10,000.00. However, with the pennies the same 10,000 got you 600.00. That is why I say the pennies give a higher rate of return on capitol invested. Remember, you are daytrading them not investing.

Dogpile, I have been studying Taylor for years. I think my posts reflect that. I have debated as to whether I am going to sell my software or not. I just haven't made my mind up yet. I don't know if I want to get involved in all the technical support/training issues..etc. With Taylor a few things are key. I do not want to openly reveal the secrets of my software. I think you can understand that??? I do not mind discussing Taylor and helping folks along but I suppose at a point I would stop. If I decide not to sell it I may decide to give it away. If I decide to sell it it will be at a good price but not outlandish. But it won't be cheap. Whatever, I do I won't give the code away unless I am about to kick the bucket and want to pass it on to someone like my son or daughter, or close friend. Hope you guys can understand my situation.

The ES on 10-24 traded down first (typical of classic buy day) on a failure to penetrate (slightly less than ideal buy day). Shortly before 9 a.m. the decline started so by the open it was already under way. Such tape action with call for an immediate short at whatever price you could get in. The real trend is down and it started before the open. So, Seeing this type of action (knowing it was a failure to penetrate before the decline) one would short at or close to the open. In this case around 1515. Notice how it blew through the 1505 zone? And indication to hold the short for more decline. Between 10:15 and 10:30 one could have seen the decline was over by the tape action. That was the point to go long. On a buy day you can go long. So, long at 1499. Close to noon one could have taken profits on the long around 1506 or just hold on for the next day in the cycle to sell your longs.

Monday was clearly a sell day that made a BV early not a buy day. You have to remember there are ideal buy days and not so ideal buy days. Same for the other two days in the cycle. Monday was a less than ideal sell day that gave one the opportunity to go long on a lower low than the previous day 10-19 (a buy day). If you don't recognize this you will forever be confusing one day with the other and call many BV days a buy day because they tested the low and did so earlier. Just because price action tested the low early in the session and then rallied does not automatically make that day a buy day even though that is the action an ideal buy day has. You can have a less than ideal SS day that that goes under the sell day low early in the session and trades up and closes high. That doesn't make it a buy day just because it tested the low first. It is still a shortsell day but a less than ideal SS day. You would never short that day even though it is an SS day. Why? Because it will most likely open the next day (abuy day) trade up and make for better shorting. See what I mean? If it were a Short sell day Taylor would only allow shorting IF it made the objective first i.e. penetrated the high or came close to the high of the previous day (buy day). How it does that doesn't matter. Straight up.... gap up....inching don't matter except in terms of knowing when the top has been reached. But 10-24 is a Buy day not an SS day.

Taylor would say that 10-24 is a buy day for ES. Now remember on an ideal buy day it will trade down low first and make the objective early in the session. It could open low too. The point is the low is will made first and soon after the market open in the ideal buy day pattern. On the other hand on a less than ideal buy day it trades up first making the high first. But since it is a buy day I can short it if that happens. So, I have two potential shots tomm. Short in the 1526 to 1529 area and go long in the 1506 to 1509 area. Or do both if the action allows me within taylors rules. Of course, the live intraday action determines the exact entry. But depending on what this does I determine the real trend of the day early on. That is what I want to be on. The real trend.

Vivaldi Baroque has been known to activate both sides of the brain something that could be very useful in trading. They are using his music in accelerated Language Learning courses.

BY all means buy the book The Taylor Trading Technique. by George Douglas Taylor. Since you studied law you should grasp the book in a jiffy:) Linda Bradford Rascke bases much of her trading ideas on Taylor's concepts. I have alot of books in my trading library. This one is the best. Learn it and put it into practice and with good money management you will succeed. Check out the thread here on Taylor Trading Technique started by dogpile. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f110/taylor-trading-technique-oct-2007-a-2623.html You will make it if you act now. Losing 200.00 is nothing. Just take the steps to learn so you won't KEEP losing. As you get confidence play some more with real money. Nothing like real money to test your system and your abilities. Always ask why? WHY?