Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

WHY?

Members
  • Content Count

    388
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Everything posted by WHY?

  1. I don't have the info entered into my software as I have to enter futures data by keyboard. I have the software automated for stock data but not for futures. May I make a sugggestion? Why don't we all agree to track for a few days the Mini S&P March contract and I will enter the data into my program that way we will all be on the same page.
  2. Tape says it is unlikley it will break that swing high on wed. In your count what you label a Sell day is really a SS right??? Or is that incorrect?
  3. I understand your concern. However, the funds stay in a money market not actually with the brokerage. I am not sure what money market funds lowtrades uses now but my lowtrades account was connected to The Reserve Fund. Proceeds from a stock sale are swept into the money market account. The card is connected to the money market account. Historically nobody has lost any funds in a market accounts (to my knowledge) since they were instituted in the US in the 1970's. While the risk is there I suppose, nobody has ever taken a loss from monies in a money market account. That I know of, anyway. It is also my understanding that the Reserve Funds is one of the oldest MM funds around. Anyway, I guess each have to decide for themselves. Personally, I think silver is one of the best investments to have during this troubled time. But only silver one personally takes delivery on.
  4. The other option is to have a brokerage account that is connected to a visa card or check card. That way you just withdraw funds at an ATM in the country you live at. Lowtrades.com offers a check card agreement for foreigners. Just2trade.com might also and their commissions at the present are only 2.50 to buy and 2.50 to sell. Both the above are connected to successtrades.com. I think they are like branches of success trades. In my opinion this is the easiest way to go. The funds from stock transactions are swept into a money market account that has the card connected to it. As far as I know all applications for the equities account..money market account..and the banking card can be done from a foreign country via downloading the forms..filling them out signing and fedexing them to the company. Anyway, check it out under FAQ at the websites.
  5. While you are technically correct on your assumptions I am not sure that it would matter that much. Taylor "clocked the market" by measuring rallies declines...etc high lows, lower lows, higher lows, lower highs, higher highs, penetrations and failures to penetrate..averages of such numbers..etc. Regardless of whether you call the days... buy day, sell day, SS day or day 1, day 2, day 3, or any other name what is really important is the rules that govern each day. And the fact of a tendency for the market to have these 3 days cycles sometimes stretched out to 4 and 5 days. I would say two different people could take different "counts" on the same instruments and as long as they followed the entry and exit rules and looked at all the declines..rallies..averages...etc that they could still both make money using Taylor. Even though my software makes ajustments in the count from say a strict Taylor count I find that within one to 3 days, or so, it tends to recycles me back to Taylors count anyway. And I could probally have made money by not recycling the days, anyway. However, the advantage of recycling is that it may give me more than one way of making money on that day. If recycling changes say a sell day to a buy day then I could potentially have 1 shorting opportunity and 2 long opportunites on the buy day but if kept as a sell day only potentially have 1 long opportunity. So, recycling gives me an advantage for the immediate moment. It is really just tweaking Taylor. Taylor taking the low of 10 days as a starting point made sense to him because it was the low of (3) 3 day cycles and theoretically that would be a good starting point for a buy day or a long possibility. I would suggest since you don't have software to make any adjustments just take the count as Taylor did. It will work, I think you will find out. Apparently, it did for him! Or do it as Richbois says which I think is a reasonable and probally a better approach to the problem. He has been quite generous with his info considering he runs a subscription service. Again, while I don't know Richbois nor do I subscribe to his services (I have my own software for Taylor) I would still recommend that if a person doesn't want to try and figure Taylor out subscribe to Richbois services. He has done the hard work. I can see from his posts he understands Taylor well. And his subscription fees are reasonable in my opinion. I did take a look at his web site. That would be the easiest way to get started with Taylor. I really wouldn't worry about others having a different count from you. Just jump in and try Taylor. Remember, the manipulation exist regardless of whether it is a buy day..sell day...ss day. While it is true that you employ different tactics for each day and are looking for certain manipulations for each day it is also true that Taylor developed a complex sort of way of making adjustments when days are less than ideal and his rules cover those less than ideal days. Hence two different people could be on say the ES and one have a "buy day" for tomm and the other a "sell day" because of having started the count on different times. However, because of the complex rules Taylor developed IF the buy day count person played by the rules for that day he would come out ok and if the sell day played by the rules he would also come out ok. I know this sounds as if it invalidates the concept of the 3 different days but the rules for each day handle ideal...less than ideal days..etc. A less than ideal buy day "could" theoretically look like an ideal sell day as the market unwinds. So, the person playing it as a buy day would follow the rules of a less than ideal buy day. And the person playing it a sell day would play by the rules of an ideal sale day. Both would come out in the end. Why? Simply because Taylor "clocked price" around certain objective points and declines...rallies..and averages of such. The important thing to remember is that a 3 day (and sometimes 4 or 5 day) cycle exists and if one uses certain tactics and rules he can take advantage of the days. Don't worry about what count others have. Just follow Taylor. You will soon "see" the cycle. Hope I haven't only muddied the water more with this post. Why?
  6. Your confusion is understandable. I m quite sure Richbois has a different viewpoint on it than I do but what I have done is built into my software a calculating mechanism whereby I calculate the "count". I will not divulge just how I do this as that is my secret. I also have recycling mechanism built into the software to allow me to recycle the days under certain conditions (which I also won't reveal) to take advantage of aberrations in the market. I am sure that if Taylor lived in the era of computers he also would have come up with a better mens of "starting" the count. Suffice it to say; it can be done. That is all I will say about it. Sorry I can't help more in this area but those are 2 of the secrets of my software. Hope you can understand my position. But I might add if one will take the time to think through it there are ways to better a starting point for the "count" than the way Taylor did it. He had to do the best he could with what he had to work with back then.
  7. Richbois,Certain abberations in the market cause my software to recycle the 3 day cycle thus causing say a short sell day to become a buy day, Thus allowing for a short or a long. However it only applies to that trading session with any certainty. Generally after one or two sessions the cycle reverts right back to where it was. But, the recycling afforded one the opportunity to say go long on the short sell day when recycling changed the SS day to a buy day. I suspect that your discovery of the positive 3 day cycle caused you to change rules and allow a long on an SS day while my software might would simply re-cycle the day and call it a buy day "for the moment" thus allowing me to go long as you would. The net effect is the same. That is, an opportunity to go long when Taylor would have only allowed a short. Perhaps you and I are simply taking different roads to the same destination??? I kept Taylors rules the same but change the day (FOR me it is easier to do it this way) while you change the rules but keep the day with the same name. In the end we both are probally doing the same thing. Of course, the above is just an example. My software may recycle back or forward on either day. For instance, in certain abberrations the sell day may become an SS day or even a buy day. The buy day in turn may become a sell day or an SS day. However, any change in the "count" is generally short lived and only for that trading session. I must say I have come across no one else that understands Taylor as well as you do. If folks want to save the time to learn Taylor I would say they could suscribe to your services and I would imagine they might would get some good insight. I have had my software now for a number of years. It is propietary and I do not know if I will ever get in to selling it or not. I am not sure I want the trouble that would come with selling software and supporting it. You may have the right idea doing things your way. Taylor amazes me the more and more I study and practice his principles.
  8. In what Taylor termed DAYTRADING these are the strategies and tactics for each day of the cycle. 1) On a buy day short and longs are allowed depending on what the market does. Shorts should be covered the same day. 2) On a sell day only longs are allowed IF a BV is made early in the session. No shorts on a sell day. Any longs held overnight from the buy day are to be exited on the sell day. 3) On a SS day only short selling is allowed. No longs. In essence, you have 3 long opportunities and 2 shorting opportunities in the DAYTRADING scheme of things. a) Long on a buy day low made early in the session. Long on a buy day HB or higher bottom in the afternoon (usually best to wait to within an hour or so before the close but is discretionary). Finally, long on a sell day BV made early in the session is permitted however, your exiting point changes to any rally towards the previous days low that gives a profit or a rally towards a penetration of the previous days low. b) Short on a buy day high made first or made early in the session. Should cover the same day. Short on a short sell day on a high made first or early in the session. Cover same day if decline is fast and rapid. May hold on and cover on the low of the next day (buy day) if decline is slow but steady. Swing trading (Taylors 3 day method) and the trend trading (Taylors longer term method) are somewhat different. Hope this helps on the DAYTRADING side of things.
  9. Today 1-21-09 was a buy day by the "count" we are following. Per Taylor one has an opportunity to go long or short or both if certain conditions are met. Those conditions today were met. The opportunity was there to go long then reverse and go short and cover all before 11 a.m. If one missed the first trip long then one could have shorted and then covered by 11 then reversed and gone long then sold out before the close or even hold for selling early tomm 1-22-09 on any penetration of todays 1-21's high. The interesting thing about Taylor is no moving averages...no stochastics..no indicators at all.....just a following of price action within the framework of a three day cycle that has daily tactics for each day if the cycle. Before the market ever opens you already know what you will do depending on what the markets does as the day unwinds. As Taylor would say we don't make the market; we follow the market and anticipate the market. As Taylor would put it you don't need to hear the news...or the daily "dope" on the markets. Of course, the system requires some tape reading skills for entry and exits but those skills can be learned by most anyone who is willing to learn them.
  10. 1-20-09 is a SS day by the "count" we are taking. It is important to take note that Taylor says weak closing on a sell day tend to forecast failures to penetrate the high of the sell day on the next day (i.e. the SS day). He says "when stock makes a high first on a selling day (1-19-09) with a penetration of the buying day high (and it did on 1-19-09), then reacts and is selling nearer the low of the day at the close (which is what happened on 1-19-09 the sell day), the indications are for a lower open on the Short sell day (1-20-09). Should the lower open occur (odds favor it will), after the decline the stock or future will make an attempt to rally, in most cases, and this rally will penetrate the high of the selling day (1-19-09) if the immediate trend is higher, however, should the rally fail to reach this objective and at the top of this rally the activity dies and the trading range narrows down to a few transaction at about the same price, then begins to 'sell off' we put out a short sale on this declining trend and just as it starts." page 48 8th paragraph.... The Taylor Trading Technique. Parenthesis mine for clarification in this market we are tracking. He later goes on to say in on the same page if after one puts out the short sale and it shows signs of tightness by going quiet and not making new lows then cover. The above is senario one for tomm 1-20-09. Another senario is it opens down and continues down without any rally. In such a case leave it alone. In a third senario if it fails to make the objective (penetrate the high of the selling day.. 1-16-09) because of a SEVERE decline at the open on 1-20-09 then it is better to also by pass the trade and not short it. Why? because a rally could start later in the session and may make the closing price near the high of the SS day (1-20-09) and in such a case it would be best to wait for the shorting opportunity on a high made first on the next day i.e. 1-21-09 (following buy day) . Senario 4 it opens and trades up immediatley...one watches for it to hit resistance and then puts out a short sale and covers same day on the decline. This is the most favorable play for making money by shorting on an SS day but perhaps not a likely senario in the present situation. But, it could happen. The odds just don't favor it. Weak closing on rallies on a sell day tend to indicate failures to penetrate the high of the sell day on the next day and also indicate possible violation of the low of 1-19-09 on 1-20-09. Since the very immediate trend is a bit higher senario one above may be what we see tomm. But, whatever happens one has a strategy to deal with it. Tomm 1-20-09 is a day for shorting ONLY (no longs per Taylor). Whatever happens one should try and close out (cover) cover the short the SAME day IF the decline or sell off if severe after taking the position. If after taking the shorting position the decline is "slow" and in no hurry, and it appears it will close near the low then one can stay short and anticipate covering on the next day (buy day 1-21-09) on low made first. And as usual, the earlier in the session that the senarios play out the better it is for making money. You want to short on SS days fairly early in the session otherwise, it is probably best to wait and short on the following buy day ..on a high made first. It is not recommended one short on a SS day on a high made last. The odds will not be in ones favor is such a case. We will see what the market brings us on 1-20-09. The odds slightly favor senario 1.
  11. Yes, and any long entered on 1-16-09 (buy day) and held into the trading on Globex 1-19-09 (sell day) would have ended an excellent exit on the gap up. 1-19-09 was sell day and since it closed in upper range on previous trading session 1-16-09 (buy day) the odds favored a penetration of the buy day on 1-19-09 which is what happened. The immediate trend was up. Again this is clasic Taylor keeping one on the right side of the immediate trend.
  12. ON 1-16 Buy day the market did recover a bit of the decline as I mentioned in probally would in a previous post (#349) Also, the best Taylor opportunity on 1-16 was a shorting opportunity as the high was made first and the low made too late for going long EARLY in the session. On the flip side of the coin here is Taylor making money and doing it by shorting on day that a bit of recovery from the decline takes place! Again classic Taylor. Catching the real move of the day and not getting whip-sawed. Finally, a long position could have been taken on 1-16 between 12 and 2:00 on what Taylor calls a higher bottom. A HIGHER BOTTOM is when on a buy day, all day, it has held a higher low than the low of the previous day (SS day) and it is in the afternoon. This long position HB can be held until the next day or it can be sold same day on any decent rally. By the end of the day on 1-16 it could have been sold for a profit but the odds in this case favor holding it for an even bigger profit on the next trading session. Why? The bit of recovery made on 1-16 and the higher close on 1-16 indicate the immediate trend to be up. We will see on the next trading session. It immediate doesn't continue up as expected then Taylor has rules to cover that too.
  13. In reference to my post #349 the lesson to be learned is that his rules will save you from a larger loss. And potentially give you a better position. I refer you to his book (The Taylor Trading Technique) page 37 5th paragraph "When a purchase is made on a buying day low and should this gain be partly lost on the opening of the selling day or opens at the buying day closing price - sell out 'at the market' without waiting for the next transaction to appear on the tape." He gives his reason in paragraph 8 of the same page. In a nut shell what he says there is that trend up is weak and it will probally fail to make the penetration of the buying day high. He says that it should have opened up and continued up if the immediate trend was really up. He says it is better to take a small loss than to hold on and chance a bigger loss. He also says in the same paragraph should the opening on the selling day be down and decline sell out on any rally thru and above the low of the buying day. On page 37 2nd paragraph he says "A buying day purchase must show a profit-that is-the spread from the low to the closing price and not lose it on the opening of the sell day." If it does he says to get out as it doesn't favor your play. In paragraph 8 of the same page he says "if going higher should have opened up and continued the rally......we follow the market and never try to make it" On page 35 1st paragraph he says if after buying on a buying day you get caught in a BV on the following sell day then you must try to get off the hook with as little a loss as possible. So, 1-13-09 was a buying day, One could have gone long and then sold, reversed and shorted and then covered all before noon and been flat at the end of the day on 1-13. However, if one chose he could have went long on 1-13 and held the long until the next day 1-14 (which would be a selling day). This was Taylor daytrading method. If one had done the latter he would be in a loss right after the open. To avoid further lose from having gotton caught with a long position, in a weak rally, he would have sold right after the open. Again, it opened down and declined further making a huge BV. It DID not hold its gain from the close on 1-13 to the open on 1-14. According to Taylor you must always play for the odds in your favor. Cut the losses, wait for the decline of the BV, and go long from that point. Classic Taylor trading. Rules, that if followed on a selling day can save you from bigger losses lpus give you a better position. Another thing to take note of is that up until the long position taken on 1-13 it had been a bear market which favored a BV being made on the next day that is on 1-14. If you know it is a bear market and there is little, if any, indication the bear market is at an end, then your best play is to be flat at end of the day on 1-13 and not carry the position overnight. Why? The reason is more BV's tend to be made in downtrends. It would be much better to take whatever profits your long position gives you on the buy day 1-13, and be flat at the end of the day, and wait for the BV and a better long position on 1-14. See how the three day cycle and its rules both works to your benefit?? Hope this helps.
  14. I was wondering if any of you out there reading Taylors book and IF you were using what Taylor called his daily method of trading (not the 3 day method mentioned above...that was an error on my part that should read daily method of trading) what do you think would have happened if you went long on the on 1-13-09 (buy day), held overnight (allowed in Taylors daily method of trading) and then sell off came the next day 1-14? Have any of you been able to extract from his book his rules about what would have happened to you in such a senario IF you followed his rules? The lesson is pretty important. Look at pages 35, 37 and 38 of his book. In addition, what about today 1-15-09 according to the "count"we have been taking it would be an SS day. A day for shorting however, it was failure to penetrate the high of the sell day. Failures to penetrate can be read on pages 47 and 48. BTY we should see something of a rally on 1-16-09 in the S&P. I would say we should see a bit of recovery from this decline.
  15. I am extremely busy the next few days but will post as I am able and will deal the other 2 days.
  16. This BV made before noon gave one the opportunity to go long, grab a few points, and get out before the days close. In a break to the downside like this you do not try to sell your long you just bought at the previous days low (buy day) but you would sell on any rally back TOWARDS the buy day low that gives you a profit. Odds are the rally would not make it back to the buy day low. This is an extreme example of how you go long in a selloff and make money using taylors rules. Now if you were trading the 3 day method and took a long postion yesterday on 1-13-09 holding it overnight what would have happened right after the open today?
  17. Monad, First, I am not sure just how Rich calculates the cycle but following his calculation here are my comments. jan 8 - I would have probably grabbed the 8 to 12 point opportunity that presented itself early in the session simply because I am a believer in taking any decent profit the market gives me. However, per Taylor if I would have desired I could have held all day and sold the next day close to the open and I would have grabbed a few more points. Jan 9th - Sell day according to Rich and you..Early in the session a BV was made. Since it is a sell day my only opportunity to take a position (as per Taylor) is to take a long position on a BV. No short-selling is to be done on a sell day. So, I would have entered long early in the session near the bottom of the BV (tape reading would determine my entry) and I would have exited on the first rally back up thru the previous days low (which would have been around the 898 area). If the intraday tape indicated to me that the rally off the BV would be continuing up, I might would have held longer and captured more by selling out near the close. Taylor says when on a selling day the when the high is made first and penetrates the previous days high and sells off closing low (thus creating a BV) then th indications are for a lower opening on the next day i.e. the SS day. Jan 12th - SS day per Rich according to you...This a a case of a failure to penetrate. Normally, this is a risky trade to go short on (you can understand more about this type of senario on page 48 of his book). Generally, it is best to "pass trading" on this sort of action. However, if you don't mind taking more risk then early in the session on the first rally back off that quick decline (that took place right after the opening) IF the rally stops (and it did...see second paragraph) then you are allowed to put out a short sale providing the trading range at the top of this rally narrows down and makes few transactions. It did this, so, if you were so inclined you could place your short sell at this point but I would watch it closely. Any decline of any consequence that starts would be my covering point and by all means be flat at the end of the day. Jan 13 - buy day according to Rich and you. Yes, I would watch for an early decline and watch the tape and once it appears to stop I would look at going long. However, since we are in a decline IF no rally of any consequence is forthcoming, after taking my long position, I would grab whatever profits the market gives me. On the other hand if the rally back up is strong I would hold for more points but be ready to jump ship. If, it opens and trades up immediatley and penetrates the previous days high (SS day) then you have a shorting opportunity. So,depending on how the markets play out today you could go long (odds favor at least some sort of decline first). If so, one could go long then on any rally back up sell the long. Then, IF within first hour or two it trades up one could short it once it gets tanks at the top, after selling out the long position. If, after the open it trades up and penetrates the precious days high then the tactic is to short it near the top (tape reading again for entry). And then on any decline cover the short and after that IF still within first hour or two one could possibly look at reversing and taking a long postion. The point is that there are 2 possible opportunities that present themselves today. Short and long. Either order depending on what the market does within the first 2 hours. Odds favor some sort of early decline then some rally but I have some doubts as to how much rally. To me it appears there will be some sort of decline early creating a long position then a rally back and IF that rally proves out to be weak..narrow range...tanking...there is a possible shorting opportunity. I say this because the bigger picture indicates we are in a decline. And the low close yesterday indicates weakness still in the market I would expect a lower low to be made today than yesterday. Again, the tactics taken depend on the actual market action of the day within the framework of the 3 day cycle and Taylors rules for employing the tactics for each day of the cycle. Again Taylor is discretionary trading within a framework of 3 day cycle and specific rules to follow for each day of the cycle. When daytrading his method the goal is to capture "small but sure" profits. That is, to get at least a fair portion of the days move without getting whipsawed around. Once must be content with a slice of the profit and forget about what the market does after one exits. I gotta run as I some things to do...we will see how the day turns out. PS... I am in no way suggesting or advising anyone to follow what I comment on here. These comments are simply informational and my opinion. Nothing more. It is NOT specific trading advice.
  18. Yes, it can happen more often in an uptrend. However, not always. It can be at the start of the uptrend. In up trends as you trade Taylors system you will get more pentrations of the buy day's high on the sell day and the Sell day's high on the SS day. In uptrends you may also find that you will be buying higher bottoms on the buy days. In downtrends, you will see more BV's as the long opportunity. I know this is bucking the trend but it is generally fairly easy to make money on a BV in a downtrend by going long on the BV's. You just can't get greedy and must exit same day (if in a downtrend) as you took your long position and your exit point should be at or just thru the previous days' low (i.e. the buy days low). However, this BV play must come very early in the session. That is, the entry should be early and the exit the same day however, you can wait and exit in the afternoon. I would exit on ANY rally back up towards the buy days' low that give me a good profit, even it it takes place 5 minutes after my entry. It is generally dangerous to hold a BV overnight in a downtrend so it is best to be flat at the end of the day. However, a BV can be held overnight if price is tracking sideways or in an uptrend when the BV takes place. But generally speaking I think it best to exit all BV before the day ends. When daytrading the system.
  19. All traders out there need to check their fingers. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090113/ap_on_sc/sci_financial_finger
  20. 1) True statement provided that the Taylor rules are met to go long or short on the buy day a) That is correct. If the high is made last on the previous day (SS day) and today is a buy day then when the markets open today look for an early opportunity to short. b) Correct and I also would be on the alert for a lower low to be made on the buy day. It takes tape reading skills to determine just when to enter long on a buy day when the previous day (SS day) has made the low last. Therefore, some tape reading skills need to come into play. c) That is true however, when the low of the previous day (SS day) is higher than the low of the day before the SS day (which would be the previous Sell day) then the price may not make it down to the low that was made on the SS day (i.e. the previous day). One needs to be at least alert to that possibility. Monad, I need to clarify something. I did not take note of your statements above as being pegged to the buy day when I first looked at it so that is why I said that was not Taylor. Some how I related your statements as being statements about what you would do on a SS day. I missed the fact that this statement were under your description of what to do on a buy day. I don't know how I missed that. It was in plain view! In summary then, you ARE basically correct in your observation of what to do on the buy considering the action that took place on the previous day i.e. the SS day. Sorry about that. I will reference your other days later.
  21. This of course is one of the big sticky points in understanding and applying Taylor. I maintain the cycle IS quite important as the strategic element of Taylors system. Therefore, I think it beneficial that one have a means whereby the cycle is, or can be adjusted, when needed. I won't reveal exactly "how" I do it but suffice it to say that there are ways it can be done. Just think thru it.
  22. Just for clarification...the three examples given in post #314 correlate respectively with the 3 tactics listed under the BUY day explanation that is found in post #314 above the examples given. Just wanted to make sure that was understood.
  23. I have tried to investigate Taylor and learn more about him but there is little to learn. I am quite sure he would have been "up" on the systems of his time or at least been aware of them. Angell and Linda Bradford Raschke both adapted Taylor in their own way. I would not say that their way is wrong but I would say it is not pure Taylor by any means. However, neither is my adaptation of Taylor 100% pure Taylor. But, there are certain things in Taylors method that in my view are imperative to the functioning of system and must be adhered to for best results. I suppose they felt or thought otherwise???
  24. Yes that is correct. That was a error on my part. It should read as you have typed it. Just blame Taylor for messing my mind up!!! As concerns Taylors writing style. It is very difficult to understand. It takes many reads to finally enter into the way he thinks and expresses himself. I do not know if he did this on purpose (as a disguise so that only those that really took the time would understand his concepts or if that was really his style of communicating). I admit, he is extremely hard to understand and I think that is why most people give up on reading his work or trying to figure out his trading system. A person who cannot take the time to ferret out his concepts would in short order chunk the book in the garbage or sell it, to get rid of it, thinking it was a bit of gibberish from some sort of derranged mind. However, to the contrary, it is full of nuggets and trading concepts that I know work in the real world of trading. At least, in my experience they work. They have to be dug out over a process of a couple of years and perhaps 50 reads but they are there waiting to be dug out. Unfortunately, most folks don't have the patience nor the time for such an exercise.
  25. Monad, Not sure how you came up with the tactics for each day but it is not Taylor (at least some it). On the other hand, it shows you are seriousley engaged in learning Taylor, which is good. Remember, the mission is to capture a goodly portion of the days move (when day trading), or a goodly portion of the swing move (when swing trading 2 to 3 to 4 days), or a goodly portion of the trend move (when trend trading..several days to several weeks). That is the mission. The strategy is to accomplish this by recognizing the cyclical nature of the market and the manipulation (by insiders..etc) and and employing mechanisms to recognize and take advantage of those cycles. The tactical side is what you do for each day of the cycle. That is; the techniques you use to accomplish the strategy. I will summarize the days tactics according to Taylors rules. I am very busy at the moment but will give you the tactics you employ for the BUY day. In other posts, as I get time, I will give you the tactics for the Sell day and the SS (short-sell) day. I am also giving you an example or two. Buy Day 1) You look to short if the high is made early in the session (preferably within the first hour or two of trading). You want to capture the move down towards the low. You don't want it to make the high first then trade to the low then back to the high for you to short it. No, you want to capture the FIRST move down. That is generally the best move. Not always, but generally. 2) IF it trades down to the low early in the session (must be before noon break) then you go long or reverse and go long (when you have previousely shorted) and wait for any decent rally towards the projected high...that could be an afternoon rally. 3) If the stock bounces around all day and holds a higher low ( a low that is higher than the previous days low...i.e. the previous SS day low) and it is late in the session (with last 2 hours ....preferably last hour) I am allowed to take a long position and hold it until the next day (sell day). Taylor called this buying a higher bottom and it is usually profitable according to him. Note: While these are the tactics you use when daytrading on a buy day you must be able do some intraday tape reading to determine IF it is advisable to follow the tactics for that day. Again exact entry points are discretionary. Second, you must have some means of calculating probable highs and lows...etc (that is what Taylors measurments were all about) and employ some tape reading at those points to detect IF the market is likely stoping at those points or will most likely continue breaking thru those points. This, of course, determines whether you will employ the tactics for the day or whether you will "pass by" trading for that session. It also affects your decision as to your exact entry point. Example 1 - For instance, lets say that on a given stock the projected and calculated/probable high is 43.00. The market opens. I am watching the action closely. It immediately trades up to 43.00 within 30 minutes of trading and it is a buy day. I am therefore poised to implement tactic 1 above. However, I must watch the "tape" and determine if prices are tanking at 43.00. I may watch it go up touch 43 trade down a little..trade back up to 43.25 trade down to 41.75 trade back up to 43 and just sit there. Not much movement for several minutes. There is a lull in the move. Suddenly, it starts down. That is when I employ tactic 1. It is early in the session (1 hour) and the projected high has been made..it appears to have tanked..and the FIRST real move down has started. I am on board and looking to exit close to the projected low but again I do some tape reading for the exact exit point. If it trades down real fast..hits the projected/calculated low I might want to wait a bit and see if it trades on down more before exiting. Once the tape indicates to me that it has probally stopped going down I exit and reverse and take a long position (it is still early in the session on 1.5 to 2 hours have passed). So, I am out of my long and now short waiting for any decent rally. If it makes the rally in the afternoon FAST I exit the long on any decent profit. If is grudgingly heads back up I may want to wait and exit the long the next day (sell day) if the tape indicates to me that there is still demand. Example 2 - The same stock opens at 42 and immediatley trades down to the projected low of 41. Prices hold there. There is a lull and little action. We are 1.5 hours into the session and prices are lingering near the projected low however, everytime in breaks a little below 41 immediatley the stock is bought. Large blocks are bought at the ASK price. It pops back up to the projected low. I decide to get on board and go long. Now I am poised for any decent rally towards the projected high. The rally starts.... gets halfway there and it is lunch and things just kind of sit there. Not much movement. About 2 p.m. things start to hop again. It trades up within one hour to the projected high. It hangs around there and doesn't seem to want to go up any more. Lets say this action continues and now it is 30 minutes before market close. I can do one of two things. I can exit my long or hold it and exit it early on the the next day (sell day). Why would I wait to exit. Well from all appearances it looks like it will close out near the high price. This puts the probabilities favorable for and even higher price early on the next days session (sell day). So, I might decide to hold overnight and capture a little more of the rally. But, if I wish to be flat at the end of each day and am satisfied with capturing a good slice of the days move, then I can go ahead and sell out. But, it since it is late in the session and the high of the day was made last and the next day is a Sell day in the cycle I do not even think of shorting it. Per Taylors rules I only short on a BUY day if the high is made early in the session. I never short a high made last. Why? Well Taylor gives the reasons in his book for this rule but in a nutshell the very fact that it closed high puts the odds against me shorting as the odds are the move will continue up some more the next day (sell day). So, if I short at the close of the buy day on a high made last then I may very well get stopped out early in the next session. Then I would be giving back some of the profits I made on the long. Example 3 - The same stock has been trading between 42 and 44 all day long. It is the last hour of trading. It is hoovering near 42 and the tape seems to indicate no further decline. The projected low was 41. It is late in the session it has made a higher high than projected and is holding a higher bottom. The odds favor a rally the next day off of 42. Thus I go long as close to 42 as I can and hold overnight probally exiting early the next day (sell day) on any decent rally towards 44. The fact that it broke thru the projected high and is holding a higher bottom favors a continuation of some sort of rally the next day. That is why I can take a long position late in the session. This is much different than taking a long position late in the day when it is at the projected low or even lower (Taylor's rules do not allow you to take such a long position). The latter is much more risky. Again, it is about keeping the odds in your favor. Taylors rules were all about keeping the odds in your favor and being ruthless to get out immediately when you are wrong or the system fails in its calculations. Being ruthless and disciplined protects your capitol. Again, Taylor WILL not work for an undisciplined trader. Actually, no system will. In summary, on any BUY day I have a potential opportunity to short or to go long ( 2 possible long senarios) or do both (a long and a short) but it depends on the actual market action. As the trading unfolds if affects the decision as to what tactic/tactics I will employ. I may do both - a long and a short. I may do only a short (for example if the low was made late in the session I DO NOT want to go long. Why? Again the odds favor more price decline the next day (sell day) thus it would behoove me to wait and take my long position on the next day on a BV (buying day low violation). I may do only a long when the low was made first as no shorting is allowed on a buy day when the high is made last. The exception to this is the "higher bottom senario" mentioned in # 3 above. There are many more examples I could give you but just follow Taylors rules when employing the daily tactics. Be ruthless in this. Sure, following the rules will inevitably cause you to miss out on some moves but you will also save your hide when things go wrong and you lessen your chances of being caught with your pants down. It is all about having system that puts the odds in your favor and FOLLOWING that system. It takes a heart of steel and a disciplined mind.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.