MC

Totally distinct though then could be mixed just like any other styles used for the markets.

Very nice chart analysis. I like it.

Long term investing right now could be an incredible place to be, I feel the market has a VERY good shot at breaking into bull trend mode again soon. In January I predicted the 14k dow level to be tested (if not smashed) this year, let's see how much doom n' gloom is left and if I'm really crazy. Here's the monthly where we have a nice channel we are in. Why would I call this a correction and not a bear market? Well for one the upwards channel has held up thus far and on top of that the 8ma hasn't crossed below the 21ma. We have been and are still in a "bear trend" but a bear market to me is not a accurate assessment yet. The 50ma and trend line are acting as confluent support. Note the ATR curling down which is often a sign of bullishness. ATR goes up when emotion is injected in the game by gloomy news to shake people out of shares. The wedge we are in looks more descending to me. SO the path of least resistance technically is down. That being said the range is getting tight and much of my other evidence points up. The macd is near crossing for the bulls. Watch for the downtrend line and 21ma along with structure resistance to break. The worst should be over if we can break all those down. The next hurdle will be the 50ma. The uptrend that's held so far actually stems back to late 2001. Yes the y2k bear broke the line down but TA is an art. Don't think that a trendline can't be broken yet remain valid. Look at how many times we have successfully tested this trendline, that cannot be ignored. Support wise we are backed by the confluent 200ma and trendline. Volume is concentrated at the bottoms which is accumulation, also the volume has decreased as the price has taken out new lows which shows selling could be drying up. On the mini runs the volume is pretty light so it appears they are not flipping and that confirms accumulation IMO. I do my analysis from the top down, starting with monthly and then getting more granular. Why is simple, because look at a daily chart and you will get whipsawed to hell. You need to go out further to reduce the noise on the charts. As always JMHO MC

Weekly is kind of what I'm focused on for the mid term. Week isn't over but that macd cross is tasty looking. Can't wait to see how we close tomorrow.

Great input from you all. This post was funny BF, I work in a helpdesk/consultant role over the phone but the challenges are much the same as IT really. I often, even before I started watching the market would always throw a slight disclaimer in there to cover myself on calls. In the technology industry you kind of have to since you often have only a partial picture from the customer. Good thing too, it carries over well to the market since we often have a bias that can be upset by one sideline participant coming in and changing the game for us.

Same here...I am leaning towards ninja and want to automate but don't have a clue on programming. What does it cost to have something coded I've wondered and how can you be sure your edge won't be compromised as well? Also can code or indicators be locked down so they can be sold without fear of the actual backing code being given away? Of course with the talent here we've had almost all hot indicators duplicated from looks alone, so that's never gonna go away 100%.

I just watched a video and something clicked on the issue of taking profits early. First let's look at why I (and many others) have this psychological issue of taking profit early... 1) Fear of being wrong and to end the pain of not knowing what will happen next. 2) Feeding the greed with quick profit to gain temporary pleasure. I have known of and clearly defined my above issues some time ago, but breaking down your psyche and rebuilding is a difficult task to do by yourself. I still have some work to do myself, but I am getting better as I practice and focus on the below facts. Maybe they can help you also? 1) Focus on remembering that we can't possibly know whats coming next and just to use your edge and execute. We have back tested and clearly defined the edge to prove it valid and profitable, now it's time to use the edge to make money through consistent execution. Fully embracing the risk and truly believing we don't need to know what's next should remove the fear and pain we create from issue 1. 2) Then think back to all the times we have taken $30 early to feed the greed, only to realize when it's too late that the move was worth exponentially more. :-\ Had we just executed the edge those few runner trades would have more than made up for the stop outs and we would be making great money. It's not small profit often that will make us net positive, rather just one good move caught and executed on could make a traders week, month or even make the year. The short term pleasure turns to negativity when you realize you are not executing and leaving $$$ on the table, costing you net profitability! There's a cycle in place stemming back to the values we were raised to believe in. In the market these values are incorrect and they need to be broken in order to succeed. I will continue to work this out and I will become a successful trader. To my point about the speaker in the video, something he said made me think... Don't look at profit as something that causes emotions, look at it as a risk free trade. A trade in the green is a risk free trade, all you have to do is manage it. Good trading and Happy Easter, MC

ALL the index ETF's are showing similar traits with divergence and volume based support. One set stands out from the others to me though and thats the SPY/ S&P. I think this guy has a chance at leading the way for what's to come in the broad markets. Here is my view. I remain bullish mid term and think we could get a large rally before the herd expects it. Shorts will probably SCREAM and cover from this next wave also. Macd divergence is fairly large and macd histogram divergence is backing us up as well. Volume, volume, volume. Folks volume like this down low is bullish, that's not retail, that's big bucks moving around and in this case buying in at the lows. Why do I think it's buying...look at the support level and how it's been fought with big $. Go to the intraday charts and look where the volume is focused at...down low. Pros don't buy high and sell low folks. Yes we have a descending triangle, yes we have both volume by price and the top trendline as resistance. BUT the top trendline is pinching off and building pressure like a spring. This spring is getting tight and that's why I feel whichever direction it breaks will have some great momentum behind it. Based on the above backing reasons I have to carry a bullish bias and fade the herd here mentally. All that being said, a wise trader may have a bias but rarely trades on it. You should be ready for momentum to either side for the best odds of a winner. If your aggressive you could buy at support down low. The more conservative approach will be to have a buy stop AND sell stop in place just outside the triangle so whichever way it breaks you would capture some of the momentum early and then just trail the stops and manage the trade. Good trading MC

Congrats Blu-ray...you earned it for all the awesome input and stuff you to here.

WOW...I didn't even notice. Thats a ancient bump. :o Now you got me wondering also, I guess someone actually did use the search tool perhaps? :o

Every indicator is good if you have defined an edge with it and execute signals without imparting your emotional wisdom. That being said, as already mentioned the main purpose most traders use RSI for is divergence at peaks and bottoms or at key levels. I do the same thing on my setups. Divergence at key levels gives you a high probability trade and if you back it with certain volume traits as another filter your odds are even higher. Good trading.

They are selling into the strength IMO. That's what changes trends, when all the big money is out and bad news or something else hits the herd runs too little too late. Buy low on panic, sell high on news that creates herd greed. Scaling in at lows 1,2 and 3. Hype rally then selling at 4. Rinse and repeat. Also noteworthy is the supply line (volume by price)...they sold at the same key level both times with large volume. Then notice the limited volume that follows the hidden selling, that's big money showing no demand. This is how the market cycles and why I say retail moves nothing and big money is the coattail to ride. It's also why I suggest noting key levels at least as heavily as trendlines if not more so. Good trading guys.

Most people I've seen take BIG losses were overextended for their equity level. Swinging for the fences will get you knocked out at one point or another. It's a combo too of not knowing when to cut a loser and freezing up though. Double whammy.

Poor money management more than overtrading. Over extending might be a proper word for that...or just gambling even. Good point though.

DOM ladder shows waiting orders aka Depth Of Market. Some of which are real and some that are fake and will disappear before being filled. Tape as in T&S is actually printed orders that have filled.

Agreed and I know this first hand. Sample size with no edge is a pointless sample set. And the fees will ruin the odds as you stated. Almost all my losses on my 70 stock and 54 future trades were commish. $1100 in commish, down $1300 lifetime. I now have a new perspective on fees and how it impacts the bottom line bigtime.

Choicetrade for brokers I could also write a review for.

There are great chart examples and user input all the way through. Buckle down and get a readin.

I 2nd this book. Even somewhat for investing the psych game is big on when to take profits etc...

I added a full Tradestation review and paid for a translator to read me the book. :o Good luck to all in the drawing.

I've been all over the Tradestation review page with my issues with them. Not sure if that qualifies, if not I'll gladly do a bigger write up to get in the mix here. I've already put an ad in the local paper for a translator in anticipation of winning. J/K Thanks for the chance James.

Very graphic so weak stomachs...don't watch. This oddly enough was another time (way back) in a Buffalo game with a neck cut. Both were freak accidents and really have nothing to do with violence. Considering how sharp skates are and how much falling and what not it's amazing to me there aren't more cuts IMO. The sport isn't all fights like the ESPN's of the world make it out to be. Which personally for me ruins the game, I think they need to let em fight personally. They break up fights way too fast now and it's not as entertaining to me. Of course I can always watch some MMA matches to see fights so maybe it's best left as a sport of skill not aggression?

When are stocks bad and futures better? TAX TIME My stock nightmare...YES they had to be hand entered. YES my 54 trades on futures get entered like this. Not the P&L I'm looking for, but that was my first full year of trading so I came out pretty much unscathed. Let's see if I can make 2008 a better year.

Excellent. Another solid guy in a mod role. BTW....those firefox tips have me FLYING!!! Thanks

I'm always looking for more tape reading guides. Could someone PM me DB's guide? Thanks. Looks like DB is a great addition here! Whether called "VSA" or another style of tape reading we all are looking for similar things. Welcome aboard DB...I've not used T2W but of all the other sites I've used this is the most mature and skilled of boards and I'm glad to have another great member on board. I'm sure you'll like the crowd here. Have a good weekend guys. MC