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dandxg
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Everything posted by dandxg
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I agree wholeheartedly. As I posted before can't we all get along and show each other some respect? We are all trading price and volume right? Some want that very specific and so VSA may or may not work. Some prefer candles and that's cool as I have used them before. Some like S/R and volume and that works too. I would like to see all outright negative nonsense omitted of this thread and every other thread, call it censorship I don't care. That goes for anyone posting nonsense, me included. That behavior is tolerated at elite trader all the time. That is why I spend less time there and more time here. I don't have a problem with hearing a different viewpoint, that's healthy when its done constructively. So in response to the question should we split the thread my answer is no. If you think VSA is nonsense then stay on your own preferred thread.
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Sledge- I just sent you a PM. I don't want this thread getting off track.
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Sledge consider getting the GTIS feed from Esignal. They aggregate tick volume from a number of broker dealers and ECN's. It's $100 per month I believe but would easily pay for itself if you trade enough. I have never traded forex, but ppl. that do, that I have chatted with, said it's pretty much the gold standard if you are going to trade forex. Now with that said Esignal has had some issues recently in fast moving markets with data lag on ES and CME in general so take that for what's it worth.
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This reminds me of a post you made on ET quite awhile ago I read and I will paraphrase if ok by you? Correct me if I wrong " You have to address someone's belief system about trading before you can teach them and address their issues". How true that is. I don't trade with PV because I think you are successfull and want to copy you, although I am very grateful to the help that you and others provide me. I trade with PV because it makes sense to me. I stumbled around and spent several thousand on trade set ups and methods that I could never trade because the risk parameters weren't right and I didn't believe in the way they traded period. Some of the educators couldn't even explain the reason why their method worked sometimes! The reason why trading with price and volume is for me is that it fits my personality, I seek value, I love a deal. I won't pay what I know is extravagent prices for anything unless my life depends on it. I have to see the value, it has to make sense and be logical to me. Supply and demand drive price in a capitalist market. It's funny on a side note, but you see ppl. speculating is this the bottom in RE market, huh? Generally speaking it can't be otherwise you should generally see increasing prices and increasing volume of transactions which you generally don't except in certain markets. Anyway enough of my rambling.
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I think a lot of us newer to trading PV, such as me, have a hard time with where to exit. You bring up a good point first warning. What is that to you? I am working to define this for me. For me it is capitulation buying or selling depending on my position. So what does this mean? A spike in volume at the high or low, yes possibly. How much higher does it need to be above the average in volume? I think the better I get at defining it and then reading it the better an exit on a trade potentially becomes. The more specific we makes things the more clearly they can potentially become. The con is the more dogmatic you can become and lose sight of the big picture. Kind of like the debate with VSA vs a more pure price volume standpoint. It helps a lot to use suggestions from Db and other to find logical areas of S/R as possible warning areas IMO. This combined with reading price action, and seeing capitulation buying or selling is the key IMHO. The reason it will never be easy is that it is subjective just like trading in general.
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Thanks for posting that $tick. I just got my DTN IQ with market internals so I want to try filter trades with either tick extremes or tick divergences as you posted. Just to see if it gives me an edge. Good trading to all.
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No worries friend. As a friend that helps me says just trade well.
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Right understood. I just meant you would not go long on a no demand referring to Eiger's previous post, a simple miscommunication.
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I am guessing you meant long on a test bar at support? As I recall ND's are shorts only, although I am no expert, by any means. One of the methods I am tinkering with for S/R show significant R at 1377. As I side note it's my sincere hope we can all be friends? We are trying to get to the same place just with different tweaks on price and volume IMHO. I have learned a lot of good things from a lot of folks on this thread. Each method or variation, like life, has it's pros and cons. Some are very specific which makes it easier to memorize and sometimes that causes one to look for a tree and not see the forest, both have their pros and cons IMHO. It's times like these when I reminded of a saying from a trading educational room, use what works for you and leave the rest. Al least we can all agree that trading with price and volume are key right? Good trading to all. Dan
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Santa got me this book based on your reco, it's simple, concise, and logical. Three things I like, and useful, 4. It reminds me of the way you suggest trading do nothing until there is something to do. Its more relaxed for sure. Thanks.
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Sledge, I know it's not VSA per se but I think that's potentially a nice set up. A gentleman named Jason Jankovsky that I learned some good stuff from on price and volume told me that H & S is one of the best TA set ups. I don't monitor this market so I have no idea how it turned out. I have studied these and as I recall you want to see the neckline break on increasing volume and then a pullback on lower volume, possibly a no demand or combo no demand upthrust would be a nice potential set up. Anyway hope you made some $$$ if you took it.
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Zeon, just a suggestion to keep in mind. If you look at a daily chart of the ES, for example we appear to have formed a bottom as off 1/22 and 1/23. Then on the 17th of this month we retested that area on lesser volume. So from a PV we are attempting to transition from bear to bull market. You have alot of folks that look at 50 and 200 DMA on the daily, including big funds. We are struggling at the 50 right now. This is normal action to be expected as the ES, and it's siblings attempt to transition from bear to bull a zig zag back and forth. This zig and zag action can knock us out of perfectly good trades on small time frame. This is actually healthy as long as we don't take out the low of 1255 with increasing volume. The greater the energy built up in the accumulation phase the great the move up with be. The ES is attempting to form accumulation phase right now on the daily. If you look at your own set up how many candles or bars made up that accumulation phase, many not many? If not many than the move up many not go far as there wasn't much stored energy. My point being to all this is be nimble for the next week. I think your expectation of it retesting overhead resistance is correct and it's important to remember that this is game of probabilities not certaintities. You have end of quarter and there may be some bad earnings for banks and others. I don't trade off of fundamentals, but it's silly to not think that some really good or bad earnings isn't going to affect your position. This is debatable, but it's the bigger money which trades off of bigger time frame that propel the big moves, not us day traders we just need to read the macro picture correct and ride the wave. The Macro picture to me is in a state of transition. From bear to attempting to be a new bull market. I think Wyckoff called it hitch hiking, riding the wave that is. Anyway hope this helps. Good trading to all.
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I tend to agree that if you are plus some points atleast move your stop to B/E. If you aren't going to move your stop to B/E then you have to be able to tape read and read order flow very well. As mentioned an example of this would be see 2 down bars tells you that order flow is changing again, possibly. I haven't looked at your specific example, so pardon me, but you want to increasing volume on candle closing up, but not excessive, and decreasing volume on the down bars. If you are seeing something other than that expect that your long may be drying up. Just some suggestions for you. By no means do I have the grail. Another suggestion, wait for it to clear that resistance overhead and then buy a pullback on lower volume. You will have missed points, but you want be trying to guess if the trend is going to change. If you attempt to buy that pullback be aware of where the next overhead resistance is to the left of you entry or on the next higher time frame chart you look at. I do think filtering these set ups with NYSE tick or Ticki for Naz would help. Just some food for thought.
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Zeon, FWIW I think you read is spot on, you might want to filter trades like this with NYSE tick, I believe that is what Eiger does? These set ups can be tricky though and IMHO if taking it you would have to defend it to as much as 5 points below the lowest low so depending on where you enter it could make for a big stop. Trades such as these offer the biggest return but also the biggest risk as there is no confirmation as of your chart posting that there is a confirmed change in trend. Just a suggestion you might wait for it to make a set of higher lows and then pullback on lower volume which could give you indication of a confirmed change of trend. You get less possible points but have more confirmation, pros and cons to each. The expectation would be that you could reasonably assume a retest of the resistance just made at 430-450. As it approaches this range you would like to see a burst of volume, Williams' would call it pushing up through supply ( the resistance range ) and then you would most likely get a pullback on lower volume where one could enter long again. Hopefully this is helpful. Didn't mean to steal Eiger's thunder as I think he adds a lot to this thread and will be interested to see his response. P.S. As an important side note I believe, it's necessary to realize that all of these indexes are attempting to form an accumulation base on the daily and this can take a very long time so it's quite possible that the intraday trading can zig zag back and forth in a range. Paraphrasing Williams and Wyckoff accumulation normally take a lot longer than distribution.
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Zeon, a bit of constructive feedback, but it's easy for me to do in hindsight, so take that for what it's worth. 1. I would have the previous day's high and low on any chart, I have found them to work well for S/R. 1334 was yesterday's RTH low. 2. As it approached that area there is what appears to be a selling climax about 32 so that shows strength. Market has a ton of selling volume at the low, but the candle close well of the low. 3. Then the market begins to stair step higher so I wouldn't short that ( ie. market making higher highs and higher lows ). 4. I am not sure if you generated those S/R areas off that time frame , but I would suggest maybe using a higher time frame to generate S/R if they came of that 5 minute chart. Eiger had some good ideas earlier IMO. 5. Lastly you might want to consider drawing a trend line connecting the highs when in a down trend and when broken, which it was no more shorts. Hope it helps.
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Sledge, for the longest time, about a year I used floor pivots for the ES and ER and they worked, but too often price just smoked through them without a pause. Part of problem I believe with using floor pivots is which one do you use? There are 5-6 formulas I believe. I don't post this to rain on your parade by any means, I hope you have better luck with them than I have had in the last few months. Just some food for thought. I do believe in using PDH and PDL and looking to supplement them with some other logical S/R areas. I have been tinkering with MP and to me the it makes sense because it based on PV which is what VSA is, but when the market gaps hard and its far from the previous day MP levels what to do then? This is what I find myself thinking. This is the reason for question above to Eiger about S/R.
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Eiger, thanks so much for posting that info on S/R. I have been working on coming up with a method of just trading VSA/PV when it comes into a "relevant" area of S/R. If you don't mind sharing do you place more weight on high and lows for a given time frame or the number of times an area has hit a certain area. For example, past price action could take out a trading zone by a few ticks and then fall back into the previous zone. Would you place more weight on that new high or the zone with many hits? Hopefully, my question makes sense. I would post a chart, but I am on relative's computer for a few days.
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Too funny, thanks for correcting me. :rofl:
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Nice to see you back PP Your contributions were missed.
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He is doing a free webinar tomorrow with Ninja you could evaluate for yourself.
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I would stay away unless you know what you are doing. If you want to gamble and break your plan go for it, just realize that's what you are doing. Expect to get skidded for slippage if your stop loss gets hit depending on the volatility at that moment.
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Such a interesting debate on S/R! I actually can see both sides and how they make sense. Do I want to hold on and do my best to read price, volume, and order flow and go for what I call the longer dollar? For the "bigger" and possibly "more relevant" S/R area. Or do I see that we are retesting the low or range after selling a pullback on lower volume and trail stop or just punch out? I personally feel this is answer that only an individual can answer for himself no one can profess to "know the right answer" as everyone is trading their own money and no one knows where the market will absolutely go. If we did there would be no reason to read the tape right? It's discussion such a these that remind me trading is much art than science.
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I am glad you are constantly reminding folks to find and use S/R areas they like and work from there. It makes things much easier. I just sit and wait and watch PV as it approaches S/R. Before I was always trying to determine is this distribution/accumulation. It makes trading much more relaxed.
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DB, is this 25 minutes a general rule to be used on a daily basis? How does it differ on days when big reports come out before RTH, like NFP and such? Thanks