Hlm

Been there, done that...and I wish you the best through the process. There will always be a market to come back to...even if it's dealing chickens out the back of a truck. Take care and see you on the other side.

First of all, glad to have some more fellow quants on the forum. However...I am a little confused as to which way this discussion should go. Are you planning to go into more details about each topic? Or are you only wanting a general discussion about the use of these quant topics? If we ask specific questions are they going to be answered with specific answers? Maybe we could create a new thread for each of the three items you have listed and dive deeper into each one. This may be the best way to keep things clean and on topic. I think the main problem is that no one really knows exactly which way you are meaning/wanting to take this discussion. Again, welcome.

There is a lot of good discussion going on here. Both of these are very true. Being at the right place (many times with knowledge) at the right time and having connections are always big items when looking for success. One should constantly strive to put themselves at the right place so they can take advantage when the time comes. I never had an official mentor, but there were some very important pieces of information along the way that would have flown right over my head without a strong grasp of the prerequisites from constantly studying both new information and the market. A non-trading example is one can't expect to understand and use advanced mathematics to the fullest without first knowing simple arithmetic. In my opinion there are three different types of mentors: Not actively trading (success unknown) but knowledgeable. Actively trading (success minimal if at all) but knowledgeable. Actively trading and being consistently profitable. Most authors fall into the first two categories. If you are looking for a mentor, I would fit your potential mentor into one of those categories and then think about their motivation and what they can realistically provide. If you wanted to, you could split the 3rd category into two...those that can and cannot teach. Just because they can do it doesn't mean they can teach you how. By the way, the first two categories do serve a purpose but most times can only take you so far. Also, the potential mentor should only be placed into the 2nd or 3rd spot upon proof.

Very good job. Keep it up and don't get ahead of yourself. Remember, a losing trade does not have to mean something went wrong. If you followed your rules and lost, then it was still a good trade. It's just a numbers game. Excellent!!

Exactly darthtrader2.0... Prop does have its advantages in certain situations. However, if you can make at "minimum 15% to 20%/month with basically no draw-down" AND you truly fear that there may be "some diluting effect", all those advantages go out the window. It's a cut throat business fueled by greed. Like someone else already pointed out, if you do go Prop the best thing to do is to just confuse everyone around you. Add extra indicators and trades, and only discuss random generic market concepts. Once you tell someone the truth there is very little that can be done to keep it secret.

Getting back on topic with your question... The best thing to do is to talk to a lawyer. I am sure you can get something written for good looks. However, when dealing with ideas (not software) based around market strategies there is very little you can do realistically to protect them. The best you can hope for is that you truly have a unique edge that will be beneficial to the firm to keep it in house (i.e. them making money with it). Other than that, in my opinion you are out of luck. This is a cut throat business and it is very difficult to prove the unlawful spread of unique ideas. The only way to keep something truly secret is to not tell anyone. Also, there is a chance that the prop firm will refuse to sign such an agreement. But you never know, they might already have experience with these types of agreements. I would casually mention it to them and see their response. I personally have no experience with prop firms so can't really help any further.

I agree, I do not use (haven't for awhile) TICKQ as a market internal. Actually overall I have gotten away from using any of the Market Internals even though I still keep a couple up and take notice of their movement. However, that is how I started when I was learning Market Profile. The key is to find an overall market strength indicator that you are comfortable with and works with your strategy. For some it might be a larger Market Profile time frame while for others it may be a simple stochastic. Many Market Profile traders use a hybrid type system. They look for certain momentum setups around the upper and lower value areas to protect their position while the market decides if it will indeed continue the move. Enter on a smaller time frame and exit on the larger. Well...I don't want to get off topic. I guess that was a long way around to just say that I agree with your "quibble".

I am not big into reading so I can't really point you to a book that I know explains some concepts. I have always been the kind who after skimming over a book throws it into a corner to collect dust and then dives in head first to get dirty. The following is a basic idea of how one can look at MP to get an idea of future market conditions. I will try to make it simple and to the point. To get more detailed it is best for the newbie to get dirty with that screen time. Market opens inside VA: One looks for a two-sided range bound day until we exit the VA and find interest. If we test one side with no interest we expect price to return to the POC if not completely to the other side of VA to test for interest. Market opens outside VA: One looks for a test of the VA without any interest. At this point we anticipate that price will continue in the direction away from the VA looking for the new VA (many times behing held up by previous Value Areas). Confirmation: One of the best ways to confirm the above is by using Market Internals (e.g. TRIN). If we punch outside the VA but the Market Internals are not confirming the move one should be very cautious. Many times this will result in a move back inside the VA at which time we would look for a possible 80% rule to the other side. The opposite is true as well. If we are wiggling around inside the VA and Market Internals are strengthening in one direction, we would look to trade the move outside the VA in that direction. Volatility Outside VA: One can usually estimate the volatility by looking at A) Market Internals and B) previous Value Areas. If we exit one VA just to enter another one with two-sided internals you can expect some consolidation. One should also take note of significant highs, lows, and consolidation areas (intraday MP areas) both in rths and overnight. Again, this is VERY BASIC information. In my opinion the best way to learn MP is to throw up the volume by price (or the pretty letters if you feel so inclined) and tpo lines and just study-study-study the chart. This will also allow you to start getting the feel for how the different distributions affect the above.

Rocky Mtn Trader...you have to remember that we are dealing with derivatives. What is being traded is not the actual exchange index. This is why the futures price does not have to match up exactly to the index. How closely the futures price is to the index depends on the overall market consensus. This is also why index futures are many times used to gauge the direction of the market.

LOL...I wasn't trying to be tricky or anything. I have just seen this topic get messy because of people having different definitions. Hopefully a few more people will jump in here and you can jump back in and comment some more.

So your definition of predicting the market is hitting a high or low to the tick (predicting both the up AND down move)? So a trader saying that there is an extremely high probability that price will move up x points and then the uncertainty goes way up would not be predicting. Would you say that the following statement is an incorrect use of the word "predict"... "I predict that the market will go up AT LEAST 5 points, therefore I will buy here and sell 5 points higher." As you can see, I am not picking a top. I am not predicting a reversal. I am just predicting that price will go up a certain amount. In other words, is the argument more about trying to pick tops and bottom versus using the word "predict"?

Just some thought provoking questions to get this conversation going... Well, I predict that the market is going to go up at least x amount of points so I will buy here. In other words, explain a situation where the trader is doing no prediction whatsoever. So you define predicting the market as picking the top/bottom of the move by a few ticks? Or is it based more of a percentage of error? Are you not predicting that the "flow" will continue for at least a desired amount? Yes, of course...this is what stops are for. So are you saying that it's not impossible, but not practical or worthwhile for the majority of traders? ------------------- So in other words, you all perceive prediction as picking tops and bottoms to a pretty accurate measurement based off of price. Would this be a correct statement?

Whenever I see questions/discussions about this topic I believe that specific definitions have to be given in order to keep everyone on the same page. What does one consider predicting to be? Are we talking about an individual trade and the probabilities associated with it or are we talking about laying out the exact highs and lows for every swing for the next day in advance? Are the predictions based off of price or momentum cycles? In a sense everyone who trades is trying to predict the outcome. However, many traders do not like to use the word "predict". If you do not believe price will go up than why would you buy? This is why I would like to see a more detailed definition to the question before responding any further.

Original question: Why So Many Indicators but Little Strategies in TL? In my opinion the question should be Why So Many Strategies but Little Indicators in TL? If you flip through TL the big discussions are about strategies. My response would be... Here at TL we like to keep the horse in front of the cart by focusing on how to actually read and understand the market instead of playing the curve fitting game via indicators. This helps to keep the new trader on track to success. Maybe the original poster meant system instead of strategy.

Haha...yes, I did not take your comment as pissing on the parade . I just wanted to make clear to others that there are two different paths to automation and they are extremely different. The correct path of automation does not necessarily equal the "chase for the Holy Grail" any more than learning how to "READ A CHART- LIKE A PIECE OF SHEET MUSIC" does. The correct way to use automation, or at least the way I think is correct, is to simplify aspects of your methodology so as to be able to process more information faster and more efficiently. One does not need a fully hands off automated system to take advantage of its use. For example, a simple system can be used to watch several instruments (e.g. the minis) and give you a general idea as to which one is currently the strongest to trade based off of your specifications. The actual reading of that instruments chart for specific entries and exits could still be completely discretionary. I absolutely agree. This level should be obtained before any attempt at automating aspects of your strategy. Sounds like you took the first route (the most popular) of automation instead of the second. I went through a long and painful indicator plug-n-play period as well. It seems like no matter how much you warn a new trader of the dangers, they end up having to find out the hard way for themselves. The most one can hope for is to get through that stage quickly and with as little financial loss as possible.

In my opinion one should only program to automate parts (if not all) of an already successful discretionary system. It is very dangerous for an individual to try and program a new system by plugging indicators together which creates a curve fitting nightmare. My guess is that this is what Sledge was referring to. Many times when individuals disagree with automation they don't specify which route they are talking about...and there is a huge difference. I disagree against the idea that there is no benefit in automating aspects of an already successful concept. If you use anything other than the raw tick data (1 tick chart) than you have in fact already simplified one aspect via automation. Many traders get the wrong idea when the word "automation" is used. However, this is not surprising since the large majority don't make it anyways. Again, trying to build a house without first knowing how everything should fit together, how to use the tools, and what the end result should look like is a long dark road that will lead to endless headaches. Added in edit: Automate to simplify, not to find success.

If you have set rules to recognize a divergence from a hard right edge then it should not be hard to program. In other words, without hindsight, at which bar do you consider it to be confirmed or of high probability? I personally do not use divergences but I have seen simple indicators that use a zig-zag concept as a simplistic approach to recognizing them. There might even be divergence code already out there for EasyLanguage that just needs to be tweaked to work with TRIX (Silly rabbit, Trix are for kids!). As for your question about there being enough information, etc...I would suggest starting another thread in the coding section. ----A Few Notes---- For a discussion about programming a specific indicator you should start a thread here. A new thread should also be started for other discussions about automation that don't specifically pertain to the current thread title. This will help keep information organized and clean.

A little bit of background from me to put my answers in context: I am not a "professional" programmer, but I have been doing it across several languages for around 15 years (much longer than I have been in the markets). I also have a few very close friends that also enjoy programming as a serious hobby. The result is that I have not had to go out and look for a programmer. Only just recently did I interview a couple of local college students that were priced at the lower end of the range I give below. Due to certain reasons I have decided to hold off on outside help for the time being. In other words, my experience for hiring external help is very limited. It would depend on the amount of information you wish to extract from the divergence. For example, to program an indicator that detects divergence based off a specific threshold is much easier than doing a full blown statistical analysis of the information. With a quick search online you can most likely find some code samples to detect simple divergences. The easiest way to find out if someone is willing to program the "easier" parts for free is to describe in detail what you are looking for. Many times there are programmers out there that have code laying around that might fit what you are looking for with very little tweaking. However, even though we do have programmers on this forum, there are other forums that have a larger community for programming and may be of more help. There is a large variety of answers to this question. Depending on the programming language, skill, native tongue, etc, you are talking anywhere from $15/hr to $300+/hr. I have also heard of people doing it per job but don't know of specific examples. That is about as for as my knowledge goes in this subject. I do not know of any specific places off the top of my head. The first question would be what you are wanting it to be programmed in. This would include the language and software. After this is answered others may be able to help you out more effectively. Make sure you have a well defined and detailed blueprint. Really take the time to sit down and cover every aspect of how you trade. Once you have all the information laid out, go back through and simplify as much as you can. Run through the list several times while reordering and combining potential areas. The better this process is done, the less headaches you will have in the future.

Yep...strap yourself in and enjoy the ride. Exactly. What one believes to be a very simplistic discretionary strategy can quickly turn into a programming nightmare. Well, the brain may or may not actually do the calculations exactly like a computer does (again, you are dealing with the subconscious so it makes it hard to prove) but it recognizes patterns that in reality give you the same end result. The main concept I was trying to portray was that even if you remove all indicators you are still working with lagging information unless you trade with absolutely no context. I find the importance of oversold or overbought from a stochastic to be of little use. The only aspect I care about is the direction and ease of movement in relation to price. Also, I believe a stochastic is best used as a filter instead of a trigger.

I'm going to jump in here and share some thoughts/opinions. It's been awhile since I have had a good rambling on here. 1) It's not the indicators; it's the people who use them. For many it's like giving someone that has never built anything all the raw materials and tools to build a house. An individual not only needs a solid understanding of the final product, but how to work the tools and the correct steps to be taken as well. 2) Those that "only" use price action and volume are still using indicators. During thousands of hours of screen time the brain is learning and doing basic calculations (moving averages, stochastics, etc.) subconsciously. Now don't get me wrong. There are great benefits in doing this and I strongly believe everyone should go through this phase before using indicators. This process keeps your learning fluid and dynamic and in turn increases your learning speed by brute force scenarios. 3) One of the easiest ways to use an indicator it to filter out the times you shouldn't trade. This instantly increases your probability of trading during times when you can be successful. For example, someone mentioned moving averages. To show people what I am talking about I have them throw up a few simple moving averages (usually fib numbers). I then have them look back over the chart and tell me what they notice. The majority come back with the answer that when price nears the larger moving averages while they are flattening and coming together (many times when price is between them) price gets choppy and fades off the smaller ones. After some discussion they realize the concept that it's because they larger time frames are in their decision stage and positioning is taking place. The end result is that by just using a few simple averages to get a basic idea of several different time frames they can now estimate the potential market condition around that time. In other words depending on their strategy they have filtered out times when they should not trade. It is very important for one to know specifically what an indicator is telling them. A simple 5 3 3 stochastic is also a good example. If an individual does not pay attention to how high or low it is, but solely on the direction it is moving and how fast when compared to price movement, it gives a great internal like reading especially in instruments like Forex. You need to know how to use that power tool or else you will get hurt. Wow, now that's some rambling. 4) In the majority of cases one must first be a successful discretionary trader before they can move to automation. At this point the object is not to be fully automatic (that will come in time) but to simplify/automate certain aspects of your trading. You will first need a blueprint. List every single process you go through when taking a trade. Make sure to be as detailed as possible. Then order these by how much time and thought goes into answering this step (level of discretion). At this point you start from the easiest decisions and look for indicators (remember, you must understand its limitations) that answer that specific question. I believe this to be the correct way to use indicators in systems. An indicator is used to answer a specific question you have. It must have a specific purpose. As you work further and further down your list you will learn a lot about your trading style and yourself...trust me. 5) As stated many places, no one is going to sell a fully automatic system that works. Also, most systems you find that no longer work won't help you as well. These systems are no different then you curve fitting something over the last couple of months and it working for the next couple of weeks. Remember, there were always be some individuals that just get lucky. Also, in my opinion the only thing one should ever pay for is education. Let me be more clear...education that isn't based off of some specific system/indicator. 6) This may get a little controversial but I truly believe a market is a market. I disagree with individuals that say you must pick one instrument and become an expert. Of course when first learning how a market works it may be a good idea to stick to one (keeping things simple). I am not saying that an individual can't learn certain characteristics of an instrument to find an edge/arbitrage situation. However, this is where the risk comes in for that edge to disappear. By all means if you found such an edge max out your leverage and try to squeeze every single cent from it before it vanishes. The word I used above was "must". If you want to be in the game for the long term and be able to effortlessly adapt, you should also learn that concepts that every market has and how to profit from the bigger picture. 7) If you plan to go down this automation route strap yourself in. It's going to be a long and wild ride. Also, if you are not both a successful discretionary trader and a talented programmer it's going to get even more painful. It may be easy to have someone else program the first few items on your list, but as you get further down it gets more complicated. If you want quality work, this back and forth discussion and research translates into a crap load of $$$ being spent on a programmer. Remember, the concepts and theory may be simple, but it takes extreme creativity to keep it that way when translating it into code. 8) BEWARE OF VISUAL BACK TESTING. Our minds are amazing machines. However, they can be tricked very easily. In my opinion visual back testing is more dangerous than statistical back testing via automation. Well...there were a couple of other things I wanted to discuss but the current nagging from my four year old has made me completely forget. :hmmmm: 1) This completely depends on your coding ability. A creative and talented coder could knock out in one line what another coder does in ten lines. It may be different depending on formatting as well. In a very general context unless you are a superbly talented programmer (remember, simple strategy doesn't necessarily translate into simple coding) I would guess a few hundred lines minimum with a high probability that it will be much much more. The same uncertainly goes with the time. Most likely only half your time will be coding. The other half will be in research and development with trying to find the most efficient ways to program the code. Oh...and unless you are a very talented programmer don't forget the time for debugging. :bang head: 2) Again, it depends on how you program it. If one takes a branching tree concept there could be dozens. However, if an individual builds a system that gathers information and derives an indicator off the statistical analysis it could just be one simple if/then statement. 3) I hate to sound like a broken record, but again it depends on how one programs it. Does the individual go out and look for the indicators to fill in the gaps? Or does the individual just use the basic concept of several indicators and merges them together. For example, you could make a rainbow by using 20 moving averages and then base your analysis off of the relation to one another. Or you could just create one indicator that internally does the statistical calculation across 1000 moving averages and displays it with one or two simple lines. Much of this depends on how much discretion you use with your current successful strategy. In my personal experience one usually starts by plugging in the holes with simple indicators. However, the further you get down that list, the greater the need is to extract the specific concept you need from the indicator and to create a more personalized/fluent indicator for analysis. I see this as the natural progression.

Sorry, nope. However, you might want to check out the SierraChart help forum. You might be able to find some information over there.

¡¡Welcome back mi amigo!! :cheers:

Password: macx (same as the pw for the rar).

I would suggest using the search feature over at the OTHER site. Don Bright is an active poster over there and there is plenty of information to read. For example...a quick search brought up the thread "Bright trading and any thoughts" with 181 posts (last one by Don Bright himself). You could also do a search for all the posts by him. Of course, if someone has some good information there is no reason why the couldn't still add it here.

I take it you mean just the individual thread? Because there is an option at the bottom of the main forum page to mark all forums as read.