Hlm

Pappo had some good points... ...but it also would depend on what you mean by "right indicator combo". Do you mean throwing up random indicators and settings for running back tests on them looking to look for a historic positive expectancy? Or do you mean picking a very simplistic indicator such as the stochastic and/or a moving average and creating a rainbow type gathering of information to measure a large spectrum of time frames to which one can better analyze how they interact with one another. Though the latter is an "indicator combo", I would still consider it as reading price action. I personally feel that many people get confused with the concept of "lagging" information. Even if you are using pure price tick by tick you are comparing it to something that has happened in the past. People get in trouble with indicators when they mix and match different ones with random settings. I would guess that the major majority of people that play with indicators do so in this fashion which is why if one is new, it can be a slippery slope. However, if you simplify it by using one over different time frames, the fractal nature of the market can be seen and read no differently that using pure price action in my opinion. Getting a little off topic from the original quote above, one could ask the question... I wonder if 2 identical people started at the exact same time. Both learned the basics of reading price action and put in the required screen time. At which point one kept on using nothing more than price action while the other simplified aspects of their process via indicators...how do their path to consistent profitability look as time progresses. Note: I am all for spending a significant amount of screen time with just pure price on different time frames and truly learning the ebb and flow of the market. This is invaluable information that one should not take lightly. In order to be a good surgeon you need to first know how to hold the scalpel. However, I disagree very much with the concept that indicators cannot be used to simplify and potentially even make one more profitable. Just because it's not needed doesn't mean it can't be used. Different strokes for the different folks...and something about skinning a cat.

Again, I hate that this is getting off topic, but if you are NOT strictly a technical trader how can you say that the charts did not show it? I must be missing something. :hmmmm: That's like a dentist telling a brain surgeon how not to do a procedure. I always get a kick out of people who use absolutes when dealing with things that "can't be done". Ignorant/Arrogant ground to walk on unless one has an underlying scheme to use such emotionally driven language. Why can't people spend more time specifically explaining how they do it versus telling others how it can't be done. Am I the only one that finds that concept as common sense?

I just got one from jayaftnt. Let me see...that link brings me to a page with a contact e-mail address. I know a few dozen mailing lists that address would like to subscribe to. :rofl:

I just looked outside...still in Kansas for me. :hmmmm: Let me guess..."Never Lose Again...In Bed!!" Thank goodness for good ole Macallan :cheers:

I haven't used Oanda for a couple of years so I can't say anything about them. Check out MBTrading (efxgroup is now with them). They allow mini lots and have very tight spreads during active market hours. Don't be turned off by the commision until you demo it along side one of the other brokers. You will also find that one broker may be better than the other depending on you strategy, pair traded, and time of day.

You are exactly right...sorry for leaving that out. That would give a better clue about the potential downside.

Today we had three Value Areas we were potentially dealing with: 819.25 829.75 852.75 855.50 863.50 872.50 888.25 898.25 903.75 Yes, we opened well below today's value area and inside the one that was created on 12/5. However, look at that bar on the open. Right at the beginning there was signs of no interest inside that value area and we went right into the next one up. It's very important to look back to previous areas when we are so far away from the current one. It's always nice to have the Volume By Price Histogram up as well so you can see the type of distribution you are working with.

Yes, I am sure that there are a large amount that do. My comment was mainly based on the idea that I know professionals that use them. Not so much as there are non out there that don't. Also, many times one finds themselves surrounded by what they themselves preach. I would agree that the majority of professional traders are able to trade successfully to a certain extent via the simplest definition of a trend. But the benefits between leaving it at that and automating certain aspects are very muddy and can be argued til the cows come home. Also, a quick note that's a little off topic...I find it interesting that you use the phrase "some of the most recognized ones in the world". From my experience, it seems like a big portion of the extremely successful traders out there try their very best to stay out of any spot light. Now I am not putting down any of the so called "most recognized", but one should not get confused and assume that they are the norm in the professional field.

It's strange how I have yet to meet a professional chart trader in person (and I have met many) that trades with absolutely no laggers. Of course a few of them only have a couple moving averages here and there. However, that doesn't mean they aren't out there. I have never been to Australia in person but I hear they are nice people . While the pure Price/Volume guru may claim "you don't need it"...one who uses them would respond "yeah, I know...but why not". In other words, they know how the market moves and know exactly what information they can extract from indicators to simplify and expedite the discovery process. Yes, the majority of indicator junkies put the cart before the horse, but that doesn't mean you need to get rid of one of them. Once one goes through the indicator stage and finally learns how to read the market, many (that I know of) go back and get the tools needed to show the specific information they want. Also, the fractal nature of the market actually helps remove much of this so called "lag" if used correctly and if the limitations are known (like everything else). As for trading via comparing large and small volume...imo it lags as much as your standard indicators. If big volume comes in, the longer time frames have already taken their positions. If you get a restest on smaller volume is that not just the smaller time frame playing since the larger one already has their position. Of course you have to wait to be sure that larger volume doesn't step in (ie lag). However, I am probably in the minority that don't believe reading volume is necessary in a 'efficient' liquid market. But of course me saying it's not needed doesn't mean someone can't find it useful. Just like with indicators, you have to know it's limitations. To summarize...indicators (including volume) are not needed to trade successfully. The important thing is that one spends the time watching the market and learning the all important ebb and flow. After enough time and understanding is gained, if one wants to simplify the gathering of information via indicators then whos to stop them.

We should probably try to stay on topic here and not turn this into fundamentals versus technicals . Feel free to start another thread/poll and link it here, but keep this thread focused on the credibility of the losing statistic.

Suggestion: Add "Book Reviews" under "Reviews" in the top menu.

Very good points stanlyd, and that is why I find it more beneficial to focus on starting calculations at the trend changes (HH/HL - LL/LH) versus just at the open. In my opinion, in order to truly get the big picture, you must understand and be able to spot the fractal nature of the market. For me, there is no such thing as a consolidation or trending day when dealing with my strategy. If we spend the majority of the day in consolidation it's most likely because there is a larger time frame in transition. What does this mean for me? Well, look at the next higher time frame for a possible swing setup (if this transition is a pullback) or play the smaller time frame trends. By getting rid of these "stuck" time frames such as 15M or Daily, you start to truly understand how to read what the market is telling you. In other words, think of those as settings to simplify the information for quick reference, and not time frames. Also, by understanding the current cycle these fractal time frames are in, target profit and stops come very natural.

There are some people like you on every forum. Oh wait, you are on every forum...well, at least the ones you haven't gotten banned from. I tried to be nice. I tried to be polite. I tried to give you the benefit of the doubt. I tried to ask some simple questions that newer traders may not think of. I am done trying, and done with this thread unless I see something horribly wrong that may hurt a newbie. Btw, if one just has to watch price and have no set rules, then I guess you are done with the thread as well. I mean, if you have nothing to add why continue? Oh, but wait, you started this thread with rules didn't you. I guess the new linear regression stuff is different. Hmmm...you could use this thread to call trades, but then you would have to post both entry and exit while price is still near both. Or even better yet, do it via Collective2. Trades can be sent automatically through MT4. Enjoy your thread Neo...and as always, happy trading.

Wow, did I hit a nerve? I have been very polite and have only been trying to get some simple questions answered. Maybe you should take one step back and look at my comments versus yours. By rules I meant how you started this thread...remember...H1 crossing this or that number, buy/sell. You started this thread out very mechanical in entry. If there is a mechanical type entry system to your most recent images, they have not been explained (or I have completely missed them). If you don't want people asking the same thing multiple times, try answering it fully the first time around...it does wonders. Take the hint, if it gets asked more than once, someone doesn't understand. Who knows, maybe this forum is a little more mature than many of the other forums you have been on (for now at least...as I watch so many new people flood in :\). Either way...happy trading. Btw, I took your last question as being a rhetorical one.

You missed the main purpose of my comment... ...which is you seem to have randomly jumped off track without any explanation whatsoever. The hindsight comment was geared towards the idea that posting charts and saying one should of made money off of it is quite worthless without rules. Also, if you want people to take you seriously on this forum, you might want to try and actually answer some questions with more than a few words. It will save everything some time. For example, you think attended automation is fine but have never tried it yourself or have had others try it with your system? If you did, and it failed, why?

Interesting comments Warren Forex. I would suggest that you open a new thread to discuss how you trade Forex with fundamentals. We should all try to keep this thread on topic. I have yet to find (in person or other form of solid verification) an individual that is consistently profitable trading spot currencies short term via mainly fundamentals. Of course I am not saying that they don't exist. Yes, technical traders (who like you said make up the majority of the boards) who fail miserably tend to lean more towards Forex. But my guess is that is highly affected by the ease of entry and minimal amount needed to take it serious. Again, I highly suggest that you start a thread. It would be quite interesting to see your thoughts.

Yes, I guess you did. I just expected more since those reasons aren't really meaningful unless you only equate automation to set and forget. If those are your only reasons...great (whatever works for you). However, you have to understand that those are pretty meaningless to many who aren't looking for black box execution. The reason why I ask is because you start this thread out with a very mechanical ENTRY system for FX. Then you randomly jump to a linear regression chart saying you saw something that looked like support and made over 150pips. There was no system explained such as where to start the linear regression and where one should look for entry, etc. Again, very random and pointless to anyone other than a complete newbie who has not fully realized the danger of hindsight perfection.

You didn't really answer his question. As you stated, automation does not mean unattended. However, attending a trade via observance does not have to equal manual exection. All the reasons you gave are removed if one attends an automated trade. So I guess the original question still stands unanswered. Now on to a question of mine. What speficially was the purpose of posting that chart with linear regression? In my opinion it was extremely random, and you expressed it in a way that implies everyone should find it obvious. It's as if I drew a trend line or had a moving average that priced bounced off of and replied "can you say T R E N D L I N E" or "can you say M O V I N G - A V E R A G E. Some clarification would help.

Metalhead, a few comments from what I see. (all in my experience and opinion) One should not take a trade on a vwap crossover (transition) without signs of a)failure and b)restest. By failure I mean a solid break to the other side. The market must show interest in that direction. As for retest, this usually is a classic flip/pullback with no interest found in the previous direction. Most of the trades shown on the first chart are done right at crossover which I would suggest against. Now, as for what I find to be one of the most important concepts. Jperl talks about the idea of "randomly" starting the charts. Though I personally would not suggest this, it will give you similar results to starting at the beginning of each day in today's market. I say this, because nowdays markets can be decently active during off market hours. We are also dealing with much larger timeframes than usual so a one day profile for the pvp/vwap may not be enough. This is why I suggest to traders idea of starting the calculations and "important" areas. For example...swings highs and lows. At which point wait for the "failure" through that area and then watch for the "flip point" on the other side of the vwap. A move up away from the vwap, and then a break down below it creates a nicer distriubtion (created by significant market action - swing high/low) to work with. In other words, base your statistics off of the basis of the market (hh/hl - ll/lh). Not only will this keep you with the trend, but it will allow you to see what time frame you are dealing with. Maybe this will give you some ideas.

Haha, no problem. I was just curious, that's all. It's most definitely not for everyone. Each individual needs to decide what they find important and what fits them best and choose accordingly. Same way with a trading strategy. I am mainly using my own software now anyways. Happy trading.

Not currently at my trading computer...but anyone who is interested, it can be found on the SierraCharts Forum. Just do a search for "vwap".

I would start off be reading and re-reading the thread located HERE. At which point I would start reading some of the threads located HERE.

First of all, I mostly agree with CandleWhisperer. Before using anything else (including volume imo) one needs to study pure price and the ebb and flow of the markets. After you have a good grasp at how price moves, then one may look at using indicators to extract information that is wanted. Trying to use indicators without first knowing the information required is putting the cart before the horse and I HIGHLY advise against it. However, I do not agree that the price only camp is the only way. Although price IS king, there are tools out there that can be very helpful in simplifying the market (for example, not many people use single tick charts). Now on to your question... Even though I currently don't use any "out of the box" indicators...the two that I have found the most helpful in the past are the slow stochastic and a few SMAs on a time bar chart. The stochastic setting of 5/3/3 doesn't change. If you are wondering, the setting is based off the golden ratio. I don't never use the oversold/overbought section of a stochastic. You can always become more oversold or overbought. In my opinion, a stochastic is best used as a filter. Which way is it going? How is it moving with price? For example, price barely moving up while the stochastic continues to stretch up, could be a good sign to watch for a reversal. As for SMAs, I would suggest throwing up several with fib number (because they do a good job at seperating themselves) settings starting at 9 and noting which ones tend to hold price, or when broken create a "failure" type momentum. There are two methods with SMAs. First, you can actually take trades off of them. For example, if price holds one and is sloped...and then retraces back to it (with stochastics agreeing) you can take a continuation trade off of it. The second way is to use them for estimating potential price action. Are they conflicting with each other? Are they coming together? Are the seperating? Is price sandwiched between them? After spending some time observing them, you will start to find patterns. I would also highly suggest that one looks into both TPO and Volume Market Profile.

At the beginning of lecture 21 he talks a little more about efficient market theory and makes some good points....