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Everything posted by Hlm
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What I have done so far...get recruits, train them, and rest them. Get a lot of them since it will help you gain cash and levels. Go raise funds to get cash and levels. Then start nuking countries. Make sure to keep the training up and soldiers rested. Also, don't forget to bank some cash in case you are attacked. I have yet to fight anyone yet though.
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I am curious as to some of the specifics such as: What were the "inactivity fees" and how long did it take for them to come into play? What percent were your commissions bumped up? What was their response when you confronted them about you "explicitly" asking them if there were minimums? How long ago did this happen? After reading this I contacted a friend that has accounts with several brokers and that I knew hadn't taken a trade through Infinity this year yet. He confirmed that he has never received a "no activity" fee and his commissions were still mid $4. Any more specific information about your situation would be greatly appreciated. Also, with your comment about going through Infinity versus Transact...many times it's about customer service and being able to get through when you need them the most.
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Another question... So pretty much what you are looking for is a "Bid Volume vs Ask Volume" on a tick chart that will determine the cumulative difference over three periods of time ?
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A few questions: Do you use time charts or tick charts? Would it be okay for the results to be displayed in a lower chart region (below chart) and have the three time values displayed with lines (would give historic look)?
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What exactly are you trying to program?
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Everything you need to know is right here. Just be sure to read everything carefully. Also their support board can be very useful and is pretty active. I hope this helps.
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That is EXACTLY what I do. I day trade the ES/YM and with my strategy the charts tell me everything I need to know. I don't watch or listen to anything market related while trading. As for news announcements, I write down the time and possible importance of the event before I start trading. This is only so I know when to expect higher volume and volatility so I can manage my trades (or stand aside) accordingly. The numbers themselves mean nothing to my strategy. If there is a huge unexpected move I may or may not turn on the news (would have to be really big). I do know people who are successful trading market correlations, but for me if I have a chart open I plan on trading it. My advice: Try it and if it helps...continue, if it doesn't...don't.
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Sure, no problem. Market internals are used to help show the current sentiment. Some of the more popular ones are the TRIN, A/D, and TICK. Again, you don't want to use these by themselves and the exact number is not what's important. What's important is where it's coming from and at what speed. I hope that helps.
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Support and Resistance areas are levels at which price is expected to be supported or resisted based on historical movement. Keyword here is "expected". A Pivot Point is just a calculation based off of price movement (e.g. Open, High, Low, Close) to determine a possible S/R area. Daily Pivot Points can be calculated by most charting software. For an online calculator check out MyPivots Calculator. Also, for simple definitions Investopedia is a good place to look.
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With the combination of market profile and market internals you can usually get a very good indication of the trading environment shortly after the open. Market Profile is the process of using statistics to define the previous days fair price. In general, a market that breaks out and/or finds S/R outside the value area (with market internals behind it) will trend in that direction looking for the new fair price (many times previous value areas). A market currently inside the value area will move from one side to the other until interest is found outside, usually with increasing internals in that direction. Of course this is based off a normal distribution day. In my opinion you not only need the price action (daily candle, market profile, opening range, etc) but also the market internals to make educated decisions about trading conditions.
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A high probability setup is one in which the combination of win rate AND risk/reward give you a positive expectancy. Just like dandxg said, someone with a ninety-nine perfect win rate can still lose overall if the risk/reward is too great. For me, a highly positive expectancy trade is one where you enter on the turn of a pullback around S/R in the direction of the larger trend. In other words just a simple continuation trade. This type of trade allows you to place a relatively tight stop (usually last swing high or above S/R) while having multiple levels of momentum on your side. Usually there is enough momentum that you can safely take a breakeven or a smaller stop if the trade fails. It is even a greater plus if the S/R areas are based off Market Profile. How you determine the setup depends on the individual. Some use higher timeframe candlesticks or internals for the larger trend while others just use moving averages and oscillators. Also, many use tick charts below their setup timeframe to time their entries more precise. Hopefully that answered your question.
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To give specific suggestions about stops I would need to know more about you strategy and how consistent it is. Ten ticks on the YM is usually not considered a lot to risk. However, it depends on your setup. But from my experience these may help: First...your daily stop should be something you can get back in a timely matter. For me, this is about 1.5 days worth of earnings. You will be amazed how much better you trade the next day knowing there is a good chance you will be back to even or green at the end of the day. This works much better than being faced with the psychological aspect of trading more aggressively trying to make up for days if not weeks of earnings too fast. Second...not having a hard daily target might help a lot with figuring out your daily stop. Try having a soft target where at that point you move up your daily stop. Give yourself the chance to continue being in "sync" with the market. When you start trading multiple contracts this might be a point where you drop down in size. You can also be EXTRA picky at this point knowing that it's no big deal if you don't take another trade. Many of my biggest winners have been in the last two hours of trading (time squeeze). Third...figure out when you statistically trade the worse and don't trade it. For many people this is during lunchtime when volume is low. Fourth...I follow the rule that if I have three stops in a row I stop, push back, and take a short break. I will then come back and review the reasons why I got stopped out. Obviously something is going terribly wrong be it psychological or just a market that isn't in sync with my strategy. If this is in the morning I may or may not trade the afternoon. If this happens in the afternoon I am done. In trading there is no room for revenge. The market doesn't care and will destroy you without skipping a beat. Fifth...try to find a good combination of targets and trailing stops. There is usually no reason to take a losing trade when the target is missed by a few ticks. Many times at worse a breakeven can be achieved. Also, when trading with one contract you can still have more than one target. The first target could be an area where when reached you start a tight trailing stop. Many times this is very useful when S/R areas are in close in proximity.
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Just to throw this thought out there... I am NOT sure about this statistically, but they both seem very similar if you look back over time. There are days in January where the ES trended down much nicer than the GBPUSD (on the same day). FX also has a tendency to skip levels at times with news announcements and create congestion zones for the rest of the day. If you are trend trading it just depends on what levels and timeframes are currently being hit (where Market Profile steps in). I do think both are VERY tradable. In my opinion the factors that will determine which is best include such things as capital, hours you can trade, and strategy.
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Not sure if this concept has been discussed already but here is a thought: Treat your daily stop no different than you treat your trading stop. It is kind of like trading off your PnL. Trail the stop as the day moves on and your PnL goes up (hopefully). For Example... When I start trading I have a daily stop that is determined by both how much I can make in a day and the type of market condition I expect. In general I do not like to lose more than I can make back the next day. As the day moves on I will move my stop up depending on what the market condition actually is and how well I am doing. During lunch times I usually have another stop above my daily stop. This allows me room to play the lunchtime (if I want to) without getting whipped out for the day in slow volume times. For example, many of you in the chat room saw me hit my lunchtime stop a few days ago. As for targets, I can’t really say I have any (personal choice). Of course this may work for some of you and not for others. It also depends on how well you are at trailing stops. However, I do feel that it is VERY important to have a daily stop that you can make up quickly. Every trader has a bad day. Yes, some days you would have made it all back and more if you kept trading. But I assure you, there are many more where you would have been wiped out.
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Fear of losing unbooked profit due to greed and perfectionism...
Hlm replied to MC's topic in Trading Psychology
Yes, great post James and glad to hear it. Just remember... Trade from the charts (wealth and growth), not your PnL (survival). The market only has so much movement to give at any given time. If you have a finely tuned strategy that is consistent and fits your risk tolerance, you can always add another contract if you want more from your PnL. -
If anything maybe Ben would agree to allow it to be played once or twice during certain times of the day. My guess is that it would be illegal to straight out restream it the whole day on a forum. At that point why would anyone pay them?
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I agree with brownsfan about it being a distraction. However, it can be very interesting to listen to during large news announcements such as FOMC. I also find the commentary interesting when a top ten local comes in and pushes the market his way during a slow lunchtime. Such a service gives you a better look at the human nature behind the market...but I would never trade off of it. As to using it just as background noise...it completely depends on the individual. I am only familiar with tradersaudio.com
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Apparently this individual went long 10 ER2 contracts at the close on Friday. For any new traders out there, this is an excellent example of what NOT to do. Yes, to the outsider looking in it appears so obvious that it was a stupid decision. However, without a solid system that includes stops (and discipline to take them) it’s very easy to find yourself in a similar situation. Blog: http://highprobability.blogspot.com/ Blowup Video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rCtQL5b_rCM In one of his other videos he gets a sell signal when he is down approximately $7,500. Hindsight is going to haunt this trader for a long time.
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Tradestation: The good, the bad or the ugly?
Hlm replied to timokrates's topic in Brokers and Data Feeds
Infinity data is FREE. You can trade through the their DOM without having the charting service. As for the instruments you can trade, they have the standard futures. (ER2, ES, DAS, ESX, NQ, YM). So yes, if you are looking for only one broker that can do all (more than futures) Infinity will not suite your needs. It's the charting that cost money and I have never used OEC's charting so I can't compare. However, this is why I stated that many people trade the min amount with TS and do the rest of the execution through another broker. I personally believe that any serious trader should have two brokers anyway. For example, trading with TS and Infinity gives you free charting (with TS) and fast execution (with Infinity) while being able to trade anything you want while hedging some connection or data feed risk with two individual brokers. But yes, I have NO affiliation with Infinity and I have NOT used (having nothing against) OEC. So who knows, OEC might be the best for some. I am just stating what I have observed. -
Tradestation: The good, the bad or the ugly?
Hlm replied to timokrates's topic in Brokers and Data Feeds
My thoughts on CHEAP services- TS has very nice charts and a big community, but their execution for aggressive daytraders is very poor. Also their support is lacking imo. It's selling point is that it's an "All in One" package where you can trade many different instruments. Note: I do know people that trade their 10 round trips a month to wave the fee and then use another broker for execution. If you are looking for a cheap solid service Infinity is great. I have never had a problem with their execution and their charting software is only $26/mo. Even during FOMC announcements I have had a flawless feed. (Futures only though) I have heard good things about OEC but have not used them. From what I have heard they sound very similar to Infinity with their quality of service. -
50 contracts for scalping would be pushing it on the YM (not saying it isn't possible). ES would be a much better instrument. Also, what is your definition of "scalping"? Is it for ticks or was that just an example?
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For pure scalping and smaller positions YM is better in my opinion. ES becomes better when trading higher volume or longer intraday swings. However, it all comes down to what works best with YOUR system/strategy.
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Nice clean blog both visually and informatively. It's always good practice to journal your trading days. I am looking forward to reading more. Quick suggestion (take it or leave it) with your offsite blog...go ahead and put information about your trading style, etc, under the "about" page. Also, remove the wordpress links under the "blogroll" section and add sites you check daily.
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I wait until my target is hit, but I have more than one. Your "target" has a certain probability of being hit (being known or unknown to you). It's amazing to watch newer traders just throw targets out there off the top of their head. There is no "one rule" for what your target(s) should be. It depends on your system/setup and risk tolerance. I take partial positions off at the higher probability targets so I can concentrate on reading the markets for the lower probability ones. For me, it's not so much about fear but more on the simple concept of capital conservation. In order to be a successful trader you MUST make money. It's very black and white (or red and green ). Remember, psychology is a BIG part of trading and scaling out (depending on your system of course) can help a lot in certain situations. Just like picking your targets for all in and all out...you can pick wrong scale-out areas that WILL lower your PnL some. It's easy to look back and say "if only I didn't scale out". However, if you didn't scale out and take a small win on that trade would you have had the ability to jump right back in for that next trade? It's a big mind game and visually backtesting your PnL can give you false perceptions.
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http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/chat/flashchat.php Old chat seems to still work with your TL username and password.