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jjthetrader

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Everything posted by jjthetrader

  1. jjthetrader
    Hey Sledge, maybe no takers because it doesn't fit anybody's personal style for long or short at the moment of your chart. From where it was sitting I wouldn't take any postition. I'd have to see how it acted in real-time. FX is funny to. Do we really want to include bars from the Asian session and call them no demand or no supply just because Asians weren't interested in Cable? If I were trading cable then I'd be interested in what London and NY are interested in. Tradeguider doesn't teach it that way but it's just something I'd give more weight to. How about you post a chart and tell us what you would do. I think that would get more feedback. cheers mate
  2. jjthetrader
    Good point Eiger. There was a study done on this in school age children and how the stress of testing actually made them 'stupid'. The fight or flight response actually diverts reasoning to our most primitive part of the brain. It was good of you to bring this up in relation to planning our trade out so we don't have to think while we're in a trade. "Stick to the plan." Tawe, great trade. Your VSA reading skills are excellent. When we get in on a VSA signal we often want to get out on a VSA signal so I see why you did what you did. You had no 'real' reason to get out other than S&R and since you're a longer term trader I think you're on the right track. You're trading your style and I think that's the most important thing.
  3. jjthetrader
    Just a little point I want to make today. This issue tripped me up for the longest time. Tawe Trader was a big help is distinguishing between acceptable breakout volume vs what might be potential hidden selling. Not all ultra high volume bars are weak regardless of what Gavin at tradeguider tells you! Here's an illustration. BAR A: This would be classified as ultra high volume. It broke up through a previous high from 3 bars earlier that also had relatively high volume but was tested and no selling appeared (the no supply bar 1 bar previous to A). So we've got to ask ourselves, did this bar contain selling? Normally a bar like this will be tested right away. What do we get? An unthrust 2 bars later. This is giving us an indication that the market isn't as strong as we may think. Now in the circled blue area we just move sideways. This is not common to testing, it is common to distribution. We know the market is weak. BAR B: We break out of that range we were just in but knwing what we know about there being weakness in the background are we going to go long here? No! Wait for your signal because your short is setting up. BAR C: This is the upthrust Eiger was refering to. We know it's an upthrust more than just it's shape but that it has that high volume and nothing to the left for a long while which would cause this. I personally took a quick short on the break of it's low. That's my quick synopsis of 'when is an upthrust an upthrust and when is ultra high volume bearish'. Like I said, this used to trip me up so just in case it may help someone I thought I'd post it.
  4. jjthetrader
    Sledge, we're trading in contracts so if you buy 2 then you just sell 1 and your other is left on the table. Do you trade multiple lots? You would have to in order to take 1/2 off.
  5. jjthetrader
    Very good tip.
  6. jjthetrader
    Nice Eiger! You meant no supply at C, not no demand correct? This is a cool example because it shows different trading styles. You wait and watch for a cause, get in, and then wait for the reaction to finish what's been built up. I get in and get out based on an indication of very temporary weakness and take it's reaction. It's beautiful beacuse it's all VSA applied to different timeframes but the principles still work. You've got the psycological makeup to hold that long, I don't. But who cares? We both still get to trade VSA.
  7. jjthetrader
    Eiger missed me so I'll post just for him:) This trade I made this morning. It's classic VSA. This is the first time I've gotton this setup right in a long time. I didn't used to wait for confirmation and this would usually work against me. Yes weakness always appears on an upbar but this doesn't mean you should enter short on an upbar. This time however we get a beautiful no demand bar (marked) followed by confirmation down. Being a short timeframe my target was 4 ticks. I shorted at the pink line. Target reached with ease. I hope someone can benefit from this trade. cheers guys.
  8. jjthetrader
    I pointed out this phenomena a couple days ago. An upthrust isn't an upthrust without weakness in the background. Just forget S&R for a minute and look at this from a VSA perspective. See the Selling climax at the bottom? That's your background. The bar you point out is merely a bar with supply on it. S&R traders may have their orders to sell there and this creates a bit of resistance but there was no follow through. This is why you can't follow 'shooting stars' alone.
  9. jjthetrader
    If you're talking abuot the software, it's tradeguider.
  10. jjthetrader
    Before you get too pissy I think you misread 'you' to mean YOU, dandxg. It was a broad statement to illustrate your point that you (not just dandxg)can't take pivot plays. It actually wasn't about you, dandxg, at all although you are included in the all that 'you' encompasses, ie you guys, if you happen to trade that way which I was not assuming you did if you're on this thread.
  11. jjthetrader
    Nice analogy! You had another good analogy earlier about an athlete. I think all these are great when forming an image of the flow of the market and of the workings, inner workings, of a trader.
  12. jjthetrader
    This is true dandxg.......sometimes. The thing with the ES is there was a time when it would never respect them and then six months later it starts bouncing right off them. It's the nature of the evolving beast and as such you always want to put price and volume ahead of anything. You can't just play John Carter's 'pivot plays' willy nilly. I like to have them up there to see if they're going to be respected as this gives you a bit of an indication of sentiment. Sledge, I don't have any good answers for for when to start your pivots session. Some say 12-12, others 2:30 EST. I think Mark fisher has some info on this in regard to FX. BUT Eiger uses true pivots which are highs and lows so I would suggest having a look at Eigers method first.
  13. jjthetrader
    Hey Sledge, FX is a different beast. You'll get a feel for how much volume it will take to penetrate any resistance in your market. It's just like breakout volume. You get an idea if a breaout is legitimate by it's volume. Don't forget about spread of the bars to. Increading volume heading toward resistance is going to signal a possible reversal if the spread is narrow. "End of a Rising Market". I use normal floor trader pivots calculated on the previous days US session only. With FX there's that controversey over when to start calculating them. But you could do weekly and monthly fine. Zeon, it was a close support point between the previous days low and the floor trader S1 for today. That's why Eirger and I appeared to have similar numbers.
  14. jjthetrader
    Hi Zeon, now that you've posted the chart, did you have a question. One thing I noticed about the one with the SC is that you drew your Support from the bottom of the body of the candle. If you're looking for VSA setups then you may want to consider the whole bar. This may be out of alignment with candle people, I have no idea, but something to consider. Eiger and I had support drawn at the same levels purely because these were floor trader pivots. When trading in the 'middle of nowhere' your support is the background strength. Background strength with a nice test on a subsequent rally is a good place to go long even though it's not on support. In that case your support is lack of selling after a climax.
  15. jjthetrader
    Zeon, would you mind posting the chart in here? I think I may have been looking at the wrong one of yours. I think you may be putting a little too much attention on S&R. But if that's how you like to trade then posting over where DB is answering questions is your best bet. For me S&R is sort of a side note. I'm aware of it but it's second always to price and volume activity. For example I don't want to jump in long if resistance is only 1 point away whether it looks like it's going to hold or break through. I take trades in the middle of nowhere sometimes because VSA is telling me to. The trade I posted today wasn't on any S&R, just reading price and volume.
  16. jjthetrader
    Zeon, had a look at your chart. Not exacly sure what you're looking for. But if you're wondering why price fell through the line you have drawn at C then here's what I see. Prior to your A that line is broken. Going up it doesn't act as resistance either so when it comes back down again there's not a whole lot stopping it. Is that what you were in question about?
  17. jjthetrader
    Sorry, forgot to attach chart to my last post. Here it is.
  18. jjthetrader
    I'm with Eiger on his analysis. Although the upbar with ultra high volume that I've marked at 10:03 was a deal breaker for me for any long position. For me that was now my background, weakness. Then the upthrust we get just about touched the Value Area Low from yesterday and was forced back down below the 20ema. This is indeed weakness. If you didn't get short after that then you had another opportunity, and this is Sebastians setup, to get short on that no demand I've marked. Zeon, this is why we fell through support so easily, weakness in the background. Then we have a nice little drop and once again we get massive volume on a pretty narrow spread closing off the low. I jumped in long on the next bar. Since I didn't wait for any confirmation I had a preset target of 2 points. But this also gives us our new background.....for now:) Good trading today guys (and gals).
  19. jjthetrader
    Exactly as Eiger suggests, there's no hard fast rules. For example the trade I posted from yesterday, going short on an upthrust without weakness in the background, I didn't use anything other than a small predetermined target. Being long after that selling climax yesterday you could have held longer. For me the more strength/weakness, the bigger my objective. Of course the market is dynamic and I'll change my tune at any time. VSA doesn't actually focus on entries OR exits. It is simply the reading of supply and demand with the price and volume bars and figuring out your own entry and or exit. I've never heard Tom Williams give entry or exit advice. He's always eluding to it by saying you'd want to be long here or short here but never gives you trading advice. But if you'd like Zeon, we can post our exits with our trades but I assure you mine will be boring. More often than not they're preset and equal to my stop. This is a whole other topic actually. But it is intertwined with VSA because the psychology of trading this way is part of your maney management.
  20. jjthetrader
    Zeon, this is a personal thing. VSA doesn't actually teach you how to TRADE. If you're long on a sign of strength then you could exit on the first sign of weakness. You could also have a preset profit target of a couple points. Or maybe you would just trail your stop and let the market exit for you. Honestly this is something you'll have to figure out on your own. What's your tolerance? Can you hold for 5 minutes, 30min, and hour? Determine what your personality can take and then build from there. I agree with Eiger about BrownsFan posting stuff like that. It's not an argument over who's way is better or who came up with it. Controversy and candles only derail the thread.
  21. jjthetrader
    I thought I'd post a counter trend trade I made today to illustrate a point I made a couple days ago. We get our big selling climax this morning, test it and 'rally' (quotations because it wasn't strong). Then you see the bar I marked which looks like an upthrust but as Tom Williams says, an upthrust isn't an upthrust unless there's weakness in the background. At the time of that bar there was still strength in the background. There was pretty decent volume on that bar but it closed on it's low. I was in the mood for a small counter trend trade and a bar that shows that much supply seemed to indicate time for a small pullback so I went short on the following bar. So we typically see upthrusts at the top of a market AFTER weakness has appeared. This was just price hitting a 'supply pocket', possibly the first profit target of the pros. They don't wait till the very top to unload. Good trading.
  22. jjthetrader
    Here's what I meant by programming your own. In volume spread analysis volume lower than the previous two bars is pretty important when looking for potential exhaustion in either direction. On my charts you can see I've got little dots to tell me if an upbar has volume less than the previous two or a downbar. These are all only potential 'signals' because often they won't get confirmed. They're there just to give me a heads up. I plan on doing a couple more 'signals'. When we've got so much information coming at us it's nice to let the computer so some of the comparing for you. But in VSA they're only small pointers.
  23. jjthetrader
    Welcome Turning Point. This thread is a great place for someone in your position. Are you trading with VSA yet?
  24. jjthetrader
    Only if you learn it and program 'indicators' yourself from your own observations of how VSA works in real-time. VSA is not an indicator based trading system. It's not mathmatical. It's very discretionary. Please read VSA thread #1 onwards and Tom Williams Master the Markets to get better aquanited with what we're talking about here. Links for the book are in the first VSA thread. Good reading.
  25. jjthetrader
    I thought I'd add this to your chart. I think you were focusing on support too far back and missed the most recent swing low break which signals weakness. The low volume pullback to that area was a great short entry.
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