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jjthetrader

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Everything posted by jjthetrader

  1. jjthetrader
    Yes I agree. The inside bar, no demands are preferable.
  2. jjthetrader
    Don't you love when you get another go at the same trade? The background is still weak and we're trying to go up on reducing volume. Finally we get our no demand completion pattern and we head south again right to the Value area Low. But this time, not shown in the picture, we break it. We found a bit of support there on the first trade but this time around there weren't as many S/R traders with their orders parked there. Notice that the background never changed. The bounce off the VAL was only temporary with weakness like that in the background.
  3. jjthetrader
    How about a YM trade this morning? I can honestly say I like it much better than the ES and find it much easier to read. This is a 5min chart. Check out the Ultra Wide Spread bar with Ultra High Volume, closing in the middle. Could it be any more obvious what our background is at this point? Next bar is a potential no demand. The bar that follows it confirms it and completes the pattern. A short can be taken now. I waited for a bit of a retracement of the completion bar. I exited at the Value Area Low, our first level of possible support.
  4. jjthetrader
    VolumeJedi, you make it look easy brother! Nice.
  5. jjthetrader
    Great posts everybody! Eiger, I gotta see a screenshot of your multi-monitor setup. You're looking at so much, how do you keep things organized. Do you also have market profile up? One last update to my cable setup. On the last update we were breaking up through the supply line. But check out the volume it tried to do this on! Two bars later we get effort to fall and cut back into the channel. With this low volume attempt at a breakout and an effor to fall I'd be willing to short on a bit of a retrace of the effort bar.
  6. jjthetrader
    Here's an update. The trade is obviously cancelled. The bar I pointed out earlier ended up closing down which made it a no supply or test on the top of the channel.
  7. jjthetrader
    Just a heads up if anyone is interested. 30min cable is forming a potential trade. The current bar is almost formed. If it closes up then it's a potential no demand. Remember this is just potential at the moment. It's always good to see how price reacts around these levels. Next bar down would confirm this for us and we could see a nice downmove.
  8. jjthetrader
    I don't think anything can be set in stone here. Some days one leads and other days it follows. But as the day progresses you can tell which is which and use it accordingly.
  9. jjthetrader
    On 1. you're right. I'm not saying futures volume is better, I'm just better at reading it. Tick volume is harder for me. Tick volume portrays tests better but futures volume portrays the spikes better. For 2. I use infinity for futures. That's all they do, no spot. They have a branch for spot, proedgefx.com. That who Sebastian uses. I use a spread betting firm in the UK. As a Canadian I don't pay any tax on 'gambling' income but I do on futures. That's another benefit. And for 3. yes you can scale into spot positions a little better if that's the way you trade and put up higher stakes for higher probability trades and lower for ones you're unsure about.
  10. jjthetrader
    Eiger, nice work man! Since you wrote your trade did hit that level. Great work. What's always interested me is where selling actually comes in and where the top is. You rarely see them in the same place. Look how momentum carries us so much higher. This is why you have to be patient like eiger and wait for the signs of the top and even then you could get stopped out. One of my trades today was on the YM. The ES wasn't setting up as well as the dow so I took it there. The ES actually showed me that the YM wouldn't be going up much further. I shorted a no demand after weakness came in at the top of the trend channel. I came so close to getting stopped by a thrust. Second chart I've posted is going with our theme of FX. The way that it trends combined with it's ease of reading professional activity makes these instruments great. I've attached a 10min cable futures chart from today. The story is short and swet. We get tons of volume coming in on a bottom reversal. When we come down into this area to test it check out the volume, ultra-low! Out of the 160pips thats visable you'd very likely have been able to catch 100 even if you were late to the party.
  11. jjthetrader
    Hey, I actually place my trades on the spot and just use the futures data to read the activity. I have traded the actual futures but prefer being able to adjust my sizes a little better on spot. Fills were always good though on infinity. It's not that the VSA club is useless, it's just over priced. It's trading well above the trend channel If it was 24.95 per month then I'd be more inclined but for the number of events per month 99.95USD isn't worth it to me, especially with the dollar against the loonie. It kinda makes me mad to that they alienated their customers by ceasing to do customer only events which I thought was included in the price of tradeguider when I first bought it. "We don't sell software, we sell education" they used to say. There are no such events anymore. You have to pay and what you pay for isn't worth it. No offence to Seb and Tom, their portions are worth something but not $100 per event (they only do 1-2 events per month).
  12. jjthetrader
    This is an excellent example of why to wait for the completion of a pattern. Right on this trendline formed what 'appeared' to be a no demand. But if you had shorted it you'd be hurtin' a bit. The bar after that was an upbar with increasing volume, not a downbar that we'd need to short, and then we get our real effort to break the old top. Large volume comes in, it looks excessive, but with the following bar forming a test on ultra-low volume, you know it was absorption and price would likely move higher. A buy-stop could have been placed above the effort bar. This is a 15min cable futures chart from December 4. I picked it only because the VSA club was looking at it live and expecting it to test the lows. This is why we must be able to turn on a dime.
  13. jjthetrader
    Eiger is travelling and noted he won't be posting for a while. As for the VSA club. I do have experience with it and it's basically a waste of money. There was never anthing 'new'. No new setups etc. As usual Gavin talks a bit much. Sebastian and Tom's parts are good but the percentage of time they actually get is minimal. This thread provides better information. I agree with BlowFish that it's too bad TG and VSA get lumped together. One one had they served a purpose bringing VSA to a larger audience but on the other had they corrupted it a bit. Bump: VolumeJedi, here's the Euro futures contract for the same time as your chart you just posted. It infact tells the same story that your tick volume did. You get the high level of activity which knocks the market sideway. Once we start moving up we get our no supply and test bars. These are excellent places to take a long with strength in the background. Chances are on another timeframe this looked a lot more picture perfect. I don't do the bar by bar thing so this doesn't really matter to me but all this activity together gives you your background. I'm glad you're able to trade FX on tick volume. Any FX position I put on is based on the activity of the futures.
  14. jjthetrader
    HI Winnie, it's hard to say. It would depend where we are in relation to support and resistance as well. Chances are the little guy is taking profit or it's an attempt to scare them out of thier positions. Look what happens on the following bar or a higher timeframe to get a better idea. When you see a bar like this the market is very thin, at that time, and easily manipulated.
  15. jjthetrader
    Nice post Jedi. Since we're on the topic of completing a reversal pattern I'd like to share this trade I made yesterday. My first area of interest was when we approached R2. It was the reluctance to move up with any conviction that gave me the sense of weakness and falling off so hard from R2 showed me it was easier for the market to go down than up at that point in time. This is good enough for me. I'm not looking for the market to change direction and go that way forever, just get my points. The first no demand was awesome, couldn't close above R2 and closed in the bottom half of it's range. Next bar down was the completion of this pattern. Not only that but it broke the upward trendline. So now I'm looking for my entry within the range of that completion bar. The low of the first no demand is a good spot. This works out perfect as we get a low volume upbar to test that low and the broken trendline. I took the trade right there where marked. I entered before the second no demand completed but having the first completion pattern was enough. A low volume upbar after a pattern like that is a sweet short entry.
  16. jjthetrader
    Yes that is correct. Clayburg supplies all the ones in his videos but I came up with my own.
  17. jjthetrader
    If you're interested in the Universal system then don't bother reading up on the DDF system. It's really crappy. The Universal $600 per month isn't that bad actually. I have it running on the 10 yr notes and it brings in $400 per day on just one contract. I've been running it since January and it forward tested very well.
  18. jjthetrader
    I have his universal system. It's quite profitable if you trade multiple instruments and miltiple timeframes. Big drawdowns but in the long run it's very profitable. You can lease the universal system and have the first few payments count towards the purchase price if that's what you decide. This isn't my main way of trading but I do have it running in the background.
  19. jjthetrader
    Thanks Tawe, and what's one point worth on the FTSE if you were to trade direct access. Would it equate to one YM point?
  20. jjthetrader
    Eiger, that was a nice looking setup. It's a shame to get stopped out of an otherwise good trade. Did you re-enter? I took a short on a no demand shortly after that hidden upthrust at 1:27 EST off the 3 min chart. Today was a beautiful day for VSA signals. It's my best trading day in a week.
  21. jjthetrader
    Eiger, nice trades. I took the exact same one this morning on the no demand. The added bonus to that one was it was right on S1. I love those. Thanks for sharing. I like how you use the tick.
  22. jjthetrader
    Hey, a test can have an upclose. This is where things get tricky. It would be a hidden test. Tom Williams says there's about 10 different kinds of test. For now look at the volume and low of the bar. Did we go down further than the previous bar then come to close up? Could be a test. But this is all in the context of the background. You'll get it once you see it more. As bars form you get an idea of what's happening. This is something you can't see from a historical chart. Bar D closes up and off it's high. This is no demand. Yes, Bar J closes up making it a potential no demand. The following bar doesn't close down though so it's really just a low volume upbar. Bar N, sometimes no demands will resemble thrusts but in the defenition of no demand is a narrow spread. Thrust are usually wider than the average. You've got the defenition correct for the no demand. The close in relation to the open doesn't come into play in the VSA methodology. This isn't to say it's not important, it's just not part of a no demand's defenition. ND = low volume, up close, narrow spread, next bar down NS = low volume, down close, narrow spread, next bar up
  23. jjthetrader
    Bar I is an upbar, that's why it's a no demand. You put the defenition right from MTM and it fits perfect. Second reason, the next bar closed down. Yes J would be considered a test. In futures tests can be high or low volume. They don't necessarily have to test high volume but rather test for selling. In an uptrend they'll constantly test for sellers before they continue the next leg up. This would be a test in a rising market. This is reading VSA bar by bar though and not a great idea. Know your background and trend and look to enter on those bars that confirm it.
  24. jjthetrader
    I'll let Tawe take the technicals on this one since he's the resident FTSE trader AND spread better. First thing, you're not stupid for taking a trade ever. You could be wrong but not stupid. Second, you can trade just off of EOD data but you'll have to be comfotrable with bigger swings against you. If I were trading EOD then yes I would have intraday data to narrow down my entry. Lastly, you said we're in an uptrend. On a daily chart we're actually in a pretty bad downtrend and that's the chart you're trading off of. Now over to Tawe.....
  25. jjthetrader
    Thank you. Very interesting stuff. I love point and figure charts.
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