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jjthetrader

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Everything posted by jjthetrader

  1. jjthetrader
    Please post a chart if you want to discuss a trade. We don't even know what market you're trading.
  2. jjthetrader
    Yes that was a good article. He's basically outlining no demand and no supply. Todd being such a big proponent of the background failed to mention that though. No supply (doji's) are found at the bottom and no demand (doji's) are found on tops but the background is key to trading these.
  3. jjthetrader
    Exactly, even 1 and 2 lot traders can push your trade into profit as long as there's enough of them. As for Sam using MA's, those types of things rarely work on their own. I was discussing them in relation to VSA.
  4. jjthetrader
    Ok, I've opened up a new thread so we can discuss your different VSA styles. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f151/combining-vsa-with-other-modalities-5245.html#post56547
  5. jjthetrader
    There was some interest expressed for a thread where folks are free to post charts and to ask questions regarding "rogue VSA". In an effort to keep the VSA thread 'pure' in it's original teaching people can feel free to post here how they've adapted VSA with other forms of technical analysis. There will be no bashing here for being 'un-VSA'. This will also not be a thread for bashing VSA, one already exists for that.
  6. jjthetrader
    I think Kiwi is correct. Maybe it is best to keep the original thread clean and start an offshoot. I would be into that. Even my own personal style is diverging from the orignal 'pure' teaching. I use Market Profile and Pivots and, don't tell anyone, an indicator! lol. The thing with VSA is that you need these things to create areas of opportunity. Often in a rally you'll get thrusts and no demand etc but in the middle of nowhere and even though the market will come off a bit, it's these areas where professional money will actually step in to push the other way. Even MA's represent areas of interest. Do the professionals watch MA's? Probably not but they will support a certain price and this often lines with with the cycle of the market (ie 20 EMA on the ES). We look to these areas to see if indeed they are supporting price there. If so we'll see it and can take a trade off of a moving average!
  7. jjthetrader
    I don't agree with Sebastian either. You can indeed trade this intra-day. Plus who can afford to trade these leveraged instruments with the stop necessary on daily bars? I lost money in the very beginning using their software to. The biggest loss was the price of the software. But I learned the truth behind the crap and developed a way to trade. 5min & 15min are good timeframes. Because of the stop size I am willing to keep I have to trade smaller timeframes. Taz, you should post some of your trades on the VSA thread so others can see how to actually apply it.
  8. jjthetrader
    I'd have to agree with Blowfish that you just get a feel for it. Ultra High is just so obvious of a spike on the volume histogram. I usually use volume less than the previous 2 bars and less than the average for low volume bars. It's all relative to the last few bars. You can't compare lunch volume to opening volume, it's not relevant. As for the spread of a bar I take into account the last 5 bars or so. Look at your current bar in relation to the previous 5 and you'll know if it's narrow, average or wide.
  9. jjthetrader
    Monad, good to see you man. It's been a long time. The VSA club is not worth the price at all. I thought it would be worth checking out for a while and had access to all the archives while there. Not good. With comments from Manby like "day trading takes up too much time" and "I don't think anyone should trade these instruments intra-day", you gotta ask yourself what can they teach you if you're a day trader? How to lose money? Honestly the VSA thread here is much better and actually has real trade examples with limited hindsight analysis (which is necessary a bit in teaching). If you feel the need to see one of these archives then PM me and I'll get you one. I'd rather you save your money for something else but be your own judge. However, if you are a true beginner then you will learn about the basics. There is value there for some but having spoken to you in the past Monad, not you.
  10. jjthetrader
    On the December 4, 2008 VSA club event Sebastian stated that he doesn't think anyone should trade these instruments intra-day. He said he lost a pile of money trying to do that, always getting stopped out. He uses his analysis on a daily timeframe now only. Again, this doesn't mean VSA doesn't work, it means TradeGuiders VSA doesn't work bar by bar intra-day even for the one who brought bar by bar to the scene. So nobody should be discouraged if they haven't been able to get that to work like it does in hindsight. If you're a market profile trader then you're looking for specific events to occur at set price levels to take your trade from. If you're not at these price levels then you consider the price action to be noise in the market and don't trade it. The same is true for VSA. Not every 3min bar could possibly hold enough significance to take a trade off of. A lot of it is noise. BUT we can use the principles to take trades off of bars or bar combinatins of interest, in areas of interest. Taz, you mentioned you were a sceptic. Do you see that even though you felt this way you still stuck at it and are finding benefit now? You probably sensed on one level that there was some truth in all this but it was buried under a whole lot of marketing giberish. Good job for sticking it out and getting beyond the surface layers. It's almost like religion, you get a sense there's truth there but getting past all that surface crap is hard.
  11. jjthetrader
    That's fantastic that you're finding your own style within the principals which are simply supply and demand. I could never get the bar by bar to work. Bars of interest haven't let me down though.
  12. jjthetrader
    They're leaving the room open for 10 hours. It would be worth it if I could stay up cause Brad is an awesome trader but I just can't do it. Enjoy it if you go.
  13. jjthetrader
    Yes, and like you have said before DB, Wyckoff never did the bar by bar thing. I wonder if the original VSA did either. I don't recall Todd Kruger teaching bar by bar or Tom Williams. They point out bars of interest but I think it's Sebastian who's brought his own style in and made TradeGuiders VSA bar by bar. I think this thread should more aptly be called "TradeGuiders version of VSA: Crock or Not?" I think those that have found VSA to be so helpful have also found a different way to apply it than tradeguider does. I use it everyday but I don't do bar by bar analysis. So maybe it's not VSA I'm using at all.
  14. jjthetrader
    In the US we do the exact same thing as Tawe with our day session. Our levels are calculated from 9:30 - 4:15 for futures traders. The ES trades overnight but that doesn't impact our levels. The volume that trades between cash open to cash close is the most relevant for us.
  15. jjthetrader
    Very nice trade Tawe. You gave us all the heads up 2 days ago on that one. So much for not being able to call a VSA trade in real-time eh.
  16. jjthetrader
    Ok, I finally found the bar you're talking about. Pleae post a chart next time you have a question. Yes a spike came in at 3am EST. I wouldn't call this the best setup of the day. Again, not sure what you're actually asking. You thought a selling climax came in there? Technically the next bar should be down to indicate a selling climax. This had the following bar up. It wasn't actually a no demand becuase the volume wasn't less than the previous two. There was less demand but still a bit of momentub buying I imagine. Please ask what you'd like to know specifically and someone may be able to help you out.
  17. jjthetrader
    Very good points. We run into a catch 22 with needing a confirming downbar and wanting to short on an upbar. I don't mind taking the break low of the no demand bar. At least on a downbar you have a bit of momentum on your side. I agree that we shouldn't be too focused on only certian kinds of bars. Like in my cable trade I posted, I was focusing on the failure of a pattern being a good entry as well. Yes the 4min is a good mix of the 3 & 5min. This stuff happens on all timeframes.
  18. jjthetrader
    I didn't know if there would be trading today but I guess FX doesn't sleep. I took two trades on cable this morning. I was inspired by VOlumeJedi's 4min chart and thought I'd try it out. As Borat would say "Very Nice"! Bar A: Wide Spread Upbar with ultra high Volume and the Next bar down equals weakness, for the time being. Bar B: This is a Test but in order to complete the pattern we need the next bar to be up. Bar C: This does not end up confirming our test but rather confirms it's failure. This is also a trap up move which comes down to close lower than the previous few bars. A failed test is our second sign of weakness. I short it there on a small retrace. I now have to sit through a little bounce but I'm not worried with weakness in the background. They have to do this to shake people out. I covered on the close up the upbar at the bottom marked Cover 1. Bar D: This is actually over two bars. It's a shakeout pattern and happened right on the open of the NY session. They mark it down only to rally off of it. And notice all the while we're making higher lows. It appears we're in a short term uptrend. Bar E: We get Ultra High Volume on a level bar and price did not go up on that as we approached a trendline. Bar F: This completes our 'effort without result' pattern. Lots of effort on the previous bar but no result. Bar G: This is our potential no demand right on the trendline with the next bar down confirming it. I short the retrace of the confirming bar. I ended up covering that second position after a wide spread down closing in the middle appeared. I don't want to mess with this bar.
  19. jjthetrader
    Welcome. If you would like comments on a chart then please post the chart. Not everyone has forex data or the psychic ability to know which timeframe you're speaking of. I've attached a 20min USDCAD for the day you mentioned. If you would like to make comments on it for what you actually meant then we can help out. Alternatively let us know the timeframe and date and time of the bar you're speaking of and I'll post another chart for you if you wish. VolumeJedi, nice post. I like your 4min chart. Do you live in the UK to be trading those hours or are you a night owl? For me, even though we moved down off the highs a good deal, the 4th No Demand, which wasn't really a no demand but the bar previous to it along with it are showing no upside demand, would have been my entry. We broke down out of the channel and there was no demand to re-enter it. I like those. Plus in forex I like there to be a move to the downside already take place to give you that downward momentum because of how liquid that stuff is and how it can continue up despite weakness entering. I like it to be well confirmed. Although #3 is pretty awesome. It's a no demand with a trap upmove confirming it. It doesn't get much clearer than that. Nice work. CandleWhisperer, Thanks for all the thanks. We miss your forex trades and posts. It would be good to see what you're doing these days.
  20. jjthetrader
    Hey Winnie, does your data provider give you access to markets which you don't subscribe to real-time? IQ feed offers delayed data for everything that you don't subscribe to. Personally I've started to use the YM daily data for what you're talking about. Happy holidays all!
  21. jjthetrader
    I'm with Tawe trading the forex market today. Here's my cable trade. Strength entered into the market but those lows still need to be tested so I felt goof about the R:R on the no demand trade I took. The enclosed chart is marked up with explanations. Currently cable is still moving down.
  22. jjthetrader
    A wise trader I know says "a line is just a line until we have reason to beleive otherwise." In VSA we're looking for areas for our setups to occur. We don't just want to take them in the middle of nowhere. I use market profile levels as well as floor trader pivots. I also use Fibs, here's why. Every move has to have a retrace right? Professionals have to pull back to reload, it's the nature of the market. So where will they pull back to? Well they'll pull back as far as the have to until they find support or an exhaustion of supply (in a rally). They keep testing until they find this area. Because of the enormous amount of support and resistance traders, this often happens on Fib levels. If I do not see any weakness in the background then I will watch these areas for a reason for the line to be more than just a line. So there is a reason for the professinals to test these levels. All day they move, test, move, test, move, test and on and on. I have no experience with murray math or anything like that but the market does move with symatry so these points can be areas of interest to strengthen your convicion in your VSA setup.
  23. jjthetrader
    Hi all, I've put Friday's action on the YM into a pdf if anyone is interested. The chart is already embedded but I've attached it here to for reference. Nice analysis VolumeJedi. Cheers 19-12-08 YM.pdf
  24. jjthetrader
    If I were trading this stock then I would want a whole lot more information on my screen. Your 20 bars don't cut it. If you tell me what it is then I will look at it for you, if not then I cannot help.
  25. jjthetrader
    It's hard to tell without seeing more of the chart. We'd need to be able to see past support and resistance. This could just be a dead cat bounce. It would also be good to know where your short position started. I'd at least be moving my stop up to protect profit. What stock is this?
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