myrtleturtle

yoo-hoo! nice gates you got here. the tendency, from the "other site", is that a baddie would simply start a new thread to continue the fight. or stalk them across other threads. if someone is acting badly, they shouldnt be allowed to post anywhere on the site. ie, warning, then a short ban. its the difference between locking someone up, or imposing an injunction. better to have few rules enforced ruthlessly, rather than many rules with ambiguity. yes, agree with FW, better behaved people here, so these issues should be pretty much unnecessary.

great SHORT on the Dow this afternoon, FW. The trigger was pin-point, and in profit immediately. In retrospect, I can see the basing at 11,810 from yesterdays action. Did you take the initial short from the break of 11,810 or so this morning? If not, how could you be certain it would rise that far back up?

you can get an fair idea of his abilities, since he posted youtubes for a long while. he gets them wrong as well, but he tends to pick the entries and exits fairly well, even pointing to support or resistance on the way to the profit target, and if tou look at the charts, the price seems to stall at these points. he, of course, gets them spectacularly wrong as well, but the stops should take care of that. he has reduced the number of youtubes of late. his site has a forum, and the free calls are generalish, eg, "buy mid-to-low xx". he has a premium room, which I am loathe to pay for. he is one of the few people to post his views/calls in advance for a considerable amount of time, and his reputation stands or falls on that. $50 r/t = a bit steep.

bail out for BE. entry was below the last bit of sideways movement around 6818. SL was close to top of move. happy it broke well. but not happy it recovered - thought it would make a clean move. end of day for me, so not interested in hanging about.

Short DAX daily if it falls to 6815. stop=6840. call valid for next 2hrs.

promise I am not stalking you, but most of your trades seem to be triggered around the main pivot point, with a variance of hardly ever more than 10 points. (on Dow and SPX mostly; havent checked others) is that a coincidence? (good calls by the way; I am sulking from two bad shorts on FX this morning; total losses amounting to -49.)

I chose [2] as it seemed the more logical. option[3] seemed too bizarre, and doesnt explain why some funds and banks have remained in business for so long. option[1] seemed to imply that the markets have a clockwork nature to them. so, being a good Goldilocks I chose the middle one. These discussions are always going to get bogged down in semantics since you have to define how you quantify "known in advance". almost by definition, it implies never making a duff call. the middle option, as already explained by others, is that edges can be found whereby not knowing doesnt stop you from making money. but, I suspect, not nearly enough if you know "in advance". my take on it is "pivotal moments", or "there are tides in the affairs of man, which, if taken at the flood, lead onto great fortune", where I think Sup/Res possibly comes into its own. Their are price points, Sup/Res, which either re-inforce a sentiment, and act as Sup/Res, or if broken, changes sentiment, causing major movements. This big-move from small-zone gives rise to the belief its known in advance. I dont think anyone can say, in advance whether a given Sup/Res will hold/break. However, you can play retracements/pullbacks with some confidence. unfortunately, its not me. also, given a big enough stop-loss, "known in advance" loses meaning. so, lots of definitions need clarifying. (how many wrong calls can you make and still say you know in advance? how stops are calculated. if you get stopped out, and the market goes in your deirection, is that a success because you called the direction, or a loss cos you got stopped out?) sorry about being pedantic, but definitions would be a starting point to have a framework within which to quantify things. phew, thats a lot of typing for a Monday morning.

?? That would take us close to end of July or so. (mid year) What? Is this some sort of Gann thing going on? EDIT: nice forecasting stuff on your last chart, wasp. quite reminiscent of mr.marcus.

aaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!!!!!!!!!!! No, no, no, no, no, no, no. Did I mention, no? drawing lines like that dont work! It gives the illusion that you went short at the beginning of the red-line. Leading upto the red-line [1]... if line[2] is the up-move, at what point do you say it has broken to the downside? breach of line[2] for 2 or 3 consecutive days? but then, line[3] could be seen as another level of support since price seems to waver at horiz-line[4]. If you are long-minded, you would be buying at line[4], since you have no reason yet to suspect its a downtrend. peak being a higher peak than peak[a] (peak[a] only becomes contextualised after peak is in), would lead you to suspect the upmove is still in play, and you are trading a pullback. peak[c], lower than peak may lead you to suspect that the upmove is losing energy, and a H&S is forming. however, a clear breach of line[4] shows the upmove is over. ONLY NOW CAN YOU DRAW THE RED-LINE[1] at peak[c]. Note the huge difference from line[4], the point at which you might go short, and the retrospective red-line[1] drawn at peak[c]. A newbie might be fooled into thinking you went short at peak[c]. (actually you might have, but then you would be trading an H&S pattern and not a trendline break) line[5] could be seen as local trendline, showing continuation of downmove. however, how many days or amount of price needs to breach of line[5] needs to happen before you decide the downmove is over? point[d] has no meaning until point[e] is in place, a higher-high. Only then can you contextualise a higher-high and possibly draw in line[6]. But is line[6] another attempt to dynamically adjust to a down-trend, as happened with line[3] when line[2] broke? the pin-bar over where line[2][ is drawn would suggest action-zone, but a clear breach to the upside would be needed. If you are minded to think the downmove is still intact, you would see the pin-bar as resistance, and might be inclined to short at 1870 or so, after the move after point[d] falters. only point[e] may suggest that an upmove is in the offing. if you thought the downmove started at line[4], and believed the red-line[1] indicated a downmove, and the breach of the red-line[1] was the downmove ending, you would have made very few pips. (the breach of line[4] was at 2000 or so, and price braking above red-line happened at 1950, after several months) There is as much discretionary analysis as Fibs or Eliotts, and open to interpretation. In the words of Fox Mulder: I WANT TO BELIEVE.

wasp: re: your 240-mins charts for S/R: how often does the Sup/Res come coincidentally close to the round numbers? have been thinking about how the "big guys, banks and govts" move the markets, and how they think in larger time-frames. wouldnt it also make sense that the numbers that trigger an interest are big, roundy ones. ie, 164 and 162 and 160, not 164.21 or 161.88.

hey, the FBI witness relocation has given me a new identity, remember. too busy saying goodbye to new_trader on on t'other site. end of month looms, and am coasting. last two months mediocre in the extreme, and I am getting fidgety about bailing from full-timing it. prepping for June, so just playing/testing for small potatoes. (still running a 5-min variant of a 30-mins system, but toying with trading off 1-mins!!) EDIT: spent this morning reading DBPs Zen and the Art of Poker thread. good stuff. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f37/zen-and-the-art-of-poker-3670.html

you mean to tell us that you were not aware of the entirety of this beforehand? (arent you shooting yourself in the foot, since you beleive the 240-mins are the key, yet you are trading off events not near the 240-min pivotal areas.)

one that got away. GBPUSD this morning.

Oz.Fx: whats an "Oz special" ? your site refers to a "squeeze-more" and its rules, but no reference to a "special", unless they are the same thing. or is the "special" a black-box? thanks

GBPCHF. I dont trade it, but tis one you havent posted, so its all my own work. Blue lines are 4-hr S/R lines. joining horizontally lines were most seem to hit. the second chart is on 1-hrs. the yellow zones are tighter ranges relative to previous action, or outside bar with many bars action within it, also possible areas of breakouts. the trendlines are high-high, and close-close. essentailly same angle, but at different places. The ATR(4) is just to show low values, showing tight ranges. sorry if I am going in different directions, but I reckon tight ranges indicate indecision, and likely places for decent breakouts, where I would set my MAs aside. feel free to ridicule.

wasp, how do you draw your trend-lines? I can see the levels, and am getting used to seeing them. I see them as tight Inside bars at extremes, waiting for an explosive break-outs. I have begun to be wary of them, and over-ride my arbitrary MAs. The trendlines I draw either by joining lows to lows, or highs to highs. Havbe tried closes to closes, and get slightly variant lines, but nothing too different. But, you seem to be joining closes to lows, etc. I either use one method or t'other. Have looked at your journal, but still not any the wiser. I can see the 162.3 zone, and where we are now is the 50% retrace of that initial upmove. EDIT: you have been very generous with your charts and views. You should demand that we show our working out first, just to check we are getting it right. Will try to post a S/R and TL chart soon.

no. sunny?

thanks for posting your trades, and esp the reasoning behind them. but how can you decide whether it was a good week or not? surely, your pips must be seen in context of, say, the weekly range, and see what proportion of that range it is. the weekly EURJPY range this week has been about 250 pips. (161.50 - 163.90 or so) thats pretty good. have a good weekend. (and dont forget to sweep up the thread. :o )

whats your max stop-loss on trades, or are they variable? I suspect you are taking trades off 30-mins?

I acknowledge that its not just the lines. I chose the lines in the DAX example, because the lines had been bounced off more than once, so they were re-inforced. And the upper blue line even more so, as they represent the lows formed during the US session, that were breached during yesterdays action, indicating to me a shift of sentiment. As an aside, another potential SHORT from 7045 would have given a 15 pip move. I would also check the amount of time spent at the lines, to see if there was some bias to one line. Sharp rejections of the res lines would indicate to me continued down-strength. However, failure to hit the support, or smaller moves away from the res line may indicate strength brewing to challenge the down-direction. I am making this all up, of course. I think I have said this before, but the real beauty of geometry (horiz as well as trendlines) is that they remain true in ALL time-frames. An indicator setting may give different signals depending on the TF used, but a sup/res line rmains there no matter what TF you use, so I recognise its strengths. EDIT: of course, if you place the lines in the wrong place, you will be trading wrong in all the TFs!!

DAX, with only horiz-lines. The resistance line is the upper-blue line, as it was tested and ultimately broke. A new res line has formed lower, blue-dotted line, as it has been tested and rejected. Since the market has moved down, I suspect that the lower dotted-line should be good shorting opps. The new active range is 7,045/30. This is what does my head in: Although the upper blue-line may be another res point, and thus potentially shorting opp, the fact is, it will have broken the lower blue line, weakens the lower blue as res, and may switch to being a sup point. nothing is conclusive until a number of lines are taken out. also time-frame is pertinent. NB: as I write, the lower blue line has been hit, and price is moving towards the upper blue line at 7055. EDIT: I suppose my point is, you could potentially short any number of res points until YOU decide to change your mind as to whether direction has changed, and you are better off buying at sup points. Arent you still having apply some personal level of discretion as to the key sup/res and how to trade them?

the quality of debate here is so high I feel reluctant to add my paltry observations. I haver tried developing a trend/range switch method, whereby you have two separate methods. What I found was you will still get losing trades. I called them "transition losses"! If you are trading a range, you would be most likely fading spikes. At some point there will be a breakout and a losing range trade, as the market switches back to trend. Hence the transitional loss, as the fade fails. You then revert to following an MA or whatever. I tried using ADX. Mediocre results, and I abandoned it. Some pennies are beginning to drop for me, as this site is about S/R, hardly an indicator in sight. I have revisited bbmacs thread on Sup/Res on the "other site", so thanks for that. I still cannot understand WHEN Sup/Res will hold or break, which is what stops me from using it. Why must it be correct or incorrect? Isnt it all a numbers game? Without some Level-2 on FX, how can you possibly get them all right? The smaller TFs are supposedly more noisy. Have you been getting them wrong completely, or would you have been right if you had wider stops?

thats good going wasp, especially keeping at it after that string of 5 losses. You still managed about 30 per day. I agree that fast reversals are not good; for me, they mess up my MAs, and I have had a very poor week this week. Scary. EDIT: your 12-HMA on the hourlies would have got you possibly twice what you got this week. :doh::embarassed:

out for -14. (6,998) poor entry; should have got in around 95, would have given me more breathing room.

DAX: Short 6,986. I think it is generally down, and am positioning for better shorts, unless it swithces to up. (ideal short would be 7,015 (low of yesterday) (dont normally play indices, so bear with me) EDIT: sorry. the LOW of the afternoon part, not the absolute end of day.