pastthepost

The Turkish lire fell short term but didn't really go below its low against the dollar of Sept 2015. After the news of the coup in Turkey, the TRL crashed but found support not long after. The 'dead cat bounce' will run for a short time and so perhaps a 'sure trade' til the market returns to just before the coup. From then on, who knows?

Obviously, post coup and recent S&P downgrade, the Turkish lire will fall at least for the next few weeks. So, taking a leaf out of Soros' book, could I short the lira? I'm assuming there are controls against this sort of thing forbidding amateur investors from engaging in this sort of behaviour but I'm curious to hear about currency speculation.

Well, I know the markets are artificially manipulated. One example is the UK FTSE index going up post-Brexit in spite of the GBP £ going down since the Brexit. I try to take the view though that the 'trend is your friend'. I mean what other measure for a stock can there be than its price, its range of movement (technical indicators), and the possible future movement (futures?). I remember years ago, I was at an introductory trading course and I met a guy who was throwing money at trading. He was desperate and seemed to have lost all perspective and common sense. It occurred to me then that if he's in that frame of mind he must be doing something seriously wrong and that if I'm uncertain about what the market will do, then I'm doing something wrong. Obviously controlling risk through stops is the solution. Getting good at it obviously requires experience of the market, which I've already stated I don't have.

Hi, trying to get back into learning about trading after a false start a few years back. I posted a longer piece in the beginner's forum but it immediately got rejected and I'm not sure why.

Hi, I just tried to start a thread but it's disappeared. What have I done wrong?

Am I on the right track? Years ago, I spent several months reading and trying to get into trading but eventually gave up out of frustration and distraction. Nonetheless, I learnt a bit and got an idea of the general overview of trading. I'm a bit longer in the tooth now and need to think a bit more conservatively about the future. Anyway, I'll give an overview of how far I managed to progress. I started off learning esignal, which I'm sure is familiar to some on here. They had a feature on their software called the 'Rally Scan', which basically compiled a list of the day's biggest stock movers in the morning on the main indices with a view to riding the trend for the day ('Trend is Your Friend'). There was another website, which I think was run by some English speaking Chinese, which focused specifically on analysing volume data with regard to trades. Obviously, understanding volume is crucial to successful trading. I eventually came across this site http://www.programtrading.com/index.html which gave advice on the Emini (ES) and the PREM (program trading) though I never really figured out how to use this information aside from the fact it's just a historical analysis of stock movements day by day depending on the time of year. I have a basic understanding of the indicators but have not really practised with them. I also understand the long/short positions on futures are supposed to be used as an indicator of bullish feeling on a stock. I mean, if the trend is your friend, let's suppose I pick a stock in the morning that's moved up a few % at the start of the day. I look at the stock and decide either to place a stop a bit below the start of the day but then I let the position run and move the stop to a trailing stop. I look at the indicators to gauge bullishness. Eventually I let the position run for the day where I either get stopped out (at a profit) or close the position at the end of the day for a profit. Obviously, I can apply the same logic to short positions, and other instruments like the Emini or Forex. This all sounds good in theory but I've not yet done it. I want to develop a day trading style which is mechanical so that I know where I stand inasmuch as the market will allow it. I don't want to have positions lingering overnight. I'm starting off using NinjaTrader because it's free. Obviously, I want to practice what I'm preaching before I commit any real money. Anyway, maybe my head is way in the clouds and I'm trying to run before I can walk but then someone can bring me back down to earth...