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Saudi Arabia comments produced minor support to Oil prices Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

Oil prices can plunge to $25 without OPEC’s action Oil price can soon plunge to $25 level, if OPEC members will stay idle and won’t take steps to re-balance the market, said Venezuela Oil Minister, Euxolio del Pino. During his speech in Teheran past Sunday, Euxolio del Pino said that Venezuela pleaded other OPEC countries to take appropriate measures to boost Oil prices to their equilibrium at $88/bbl. This price level could allow Oil producers to cover the costs of developing new extraction facilities, he noted. According to his words the offer is being considered by Saudi Arabia and Qatar. “We can’t allow the market to keep setting Oil prices, the aim of OPEC is taking action on Oil price decrease and we have to go back to those principles” – said Del Pino. OPEC meeting will be held on December 4th. They keep around 40% of world’s Oil supply and their volume of production has been exceeding the official quote of 30M bbl./day for 17 months. Meanwhile, Russian boycott will be extended for 6 months according to the decision of the US and EU leaders, reports Channel NewsAsia with links to diplomatic sources. According to Channel NewsAsia, the agreement was reached offstage during the summit of “Big 20″ despite the calls to restore cooperation with Russia to effectively fight terrorism. Current sanctions against Russia expire in January 2016. Together with Ruble being significantly overestimated according to Goldman Sachs, this could cause a spike in USD/RUB to the equilibrium of 70 level. We would advice traders to carefully watch this pair. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

Aussie is in deep thoughts: will it go north or south? Let us move to the daily chart. If Monday closes under the broken line and form a candlestick pattern “bearish merger”, this will be the signal to sell the pair: On the other hand, if we break the descending line with the tree candles, then it makes sense to buy the pair on a pullback, considering, that the downtrend lies on three points: Stay tuned with Tickmill Market Commentary Best Regrads Tickmill- ECN Forex Broker Forex-CFD-Metals We want traders to succed

FED October protocols help markets to end the week on a positive note Stay tuned with Tickmill Market Commentary Best Regrads Tickmill- ECN Forex Broker Forex-CFD-Metals We want traders to succed

December rate hike odds give bullish sentiments to US stocks Stay tuned with Tickmill Market Commentary Best Regrads Tickmill- ECN Forex Broker Forex-CFD-Metals We want traders to succed

EIA report finally sends Oil prices up Stay tuned with Tickmill Market Commentary Best Regrads Tickmill- ECN Forex Broker Forex-CFD-Metals We want traders to succed

Dollar rises on the expectations of strong inflation data from the US Stay Tuned with Tickmill Market Commentaries

Paris killing: will the market shock be short-term or extend for some more? Stay Tunde With Tickmill Market Commentary to get lastest update from the markets

Oil prices are pressured again with US building up crude inventories Oil prices fell to the lowest level for two months after EIA’s release showed that US keeps up accumulating crude reserves. WTI declined by 0.34% and currently trading at 41.61 level, while Brent gained 0.23% against USD and now waves around 44.10 level. According to Energy Information Administration (EIA) reports, crude inventories rose by 4.2M barrels exceeding the expectations of only 1M barrels increase. “Market plunged on the negative impact from record high crude inventories and output increase”, – said in PhillipFutures analytical report. Analysts have different views on Oil market oversupply, ranging from 0.7M to 2.5M barrels daily. On Thursday, OPEC reported a decrease of oil output in October and also anticipates sharp cut in Oil extraction next year, first from 2007. “It is not likely to see Oil prices rising at the end of this year, as strengthening Dollar and emerging markets issues present a serious hurdle for that”, – said in ANZ bank report. Last month there was a substantial increase of put options for Oil prices ranging from $40 to $25 in the period from December 2015 to June 2016. It indicates that traders are getting ready for further crash in Oil prices in the first half of next year. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

Crude reserves increase in the US China retail sales rise Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

China deals with deflation trends China continues to struggle with deflation according to the latest CPI release. In October it averaged 1.3% against 1.6% a year earlier. CPI figures have missed the analysts’ forecast predicting a 1.4% rise comparing to the last year. Prices for pork which has significant impact on Chinese inflation have been decreasing in the last months. Prices on main consumer goods rose by 1.15%. PPI index lost 5.9% and maintained a consistent fall for the third month in a row and some analysts see it as a deflationary trend in this sector. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

October NFP release beats all expectations December rate hike possibility surges to 70% The estimates on the pace of the US economy recovery were different from very pessimistic to full hopes. But October NFP report seems to beat them all. Outstanding US Labor data exceeded all expectations of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, who ranged the change from 75,000 to 250,000 increase. Actual number of jobs created in October was 271,000, the biggest from 2009. Unemployment claims declined to the seven years low and averaged only 5%, while hourly earnings increased to the 2008 pre-crisis level. As it might be expected USD added to all majors with EUR/USD tumbled from 1.089 to 1.070 during the NFP release then returning to 1.07660 level. USD/JPY rose from 121.900 to 123.300 level, GBP/USD started to fall from the start of Friday session then plunging to 1.50370 level during the release. US indices such as DJIA, Nasdaq and S&P 500 erased their weekly loss, while US treasures tumbled. The odds of rate hike rose from 56% to 70% after the US non-farm payroll release as signs of recovery that Fed is looking for are obvious now. The assumed effective benchmark is 0.375%. In addition to growth in payrolls and wages, “we’re also seeing a number of other important bellwethers of progress,” Labor Secretary Tom Perez said in a phone interview: “We’re continuing to have the wind at our backs.” The conditions for rate liftoff are becoming very comfortable, the requirement of “one further improvement” in labor market is fully fulfilled and the “live possibility” that Fed’s chair Yellen mentioned last month in her speech, turns to be much more solid than expected. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

October Non-farm Payrolls: the key report for December Fed decision Today traders around the world are keeping tab on major US report, released by labor department – Non-Farm Payrolls. October report is especially notable because it is one of the two job-related reports at the US Fed’s disposal for making decision on the US key benchmark in December. The report has outstanding importance as US Fed stays pat on its rate for about a decade (from 2008). Its change could be a token of deep transformations in global economy, to be precise, the end of the “cheap money” age. “Their case for whether or not to go in December could be made or lost with the October employment report,” said Ryan Sweet, a senior economist at Moody’s Analytics Inc. The August US labor data, reporting a reduced number of jobs created, was released together with the Chinese troubles in stock market and talks of a global economy slowdown. In such amount of information one could miss the start of downturn in the US labor market and most probably the October Non-farm Payroll report may reveal a true picture. Non-Farm payrolls hit their peak in 2014 with 260,000 jobs but started to decline with around 200,000 jobs for January-July 2015 period and around 140,000 jobs in August-September. According to the forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, October report will show 180,000 new jobs created, 40,000 more than it was in September. “The book is far from closed on the last few months,” said Conrad DeQuadros, senior economist at RDQ Economics: “It’s not clear that the labor market actually did slow down.” The condition on which Fed would raise its rate is “some further improvement” in US jobs situation. Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen emphasized again that there is a “live possibility” in raising the rate if Non-Farm figures look up. Source : Tickmill market Commentary

EIA report shows increase in reserves, December rate hike odds are over 50% EUR/Dollar is heading south… on all fronts Therefore there is an option to sell EUR from this broken-down flag, or by pacing a limit, or focusing on the candlestick signals: Source : Tickmill market commentary

US indices hit new highs on strong macroeconomic data from EU and China US Indices rose on Monday, with Nasdaq Composite reaching new high for 15 years, writes Bloomberg. Its only 1% left for S&P to hit new peak recorded in May, Dow Jones lacked 2.6% to climb to the new record. DJIA gained 0.94% on November 2nd and totaled 17826.76 points. S&P added 24.69 points (1.19%) and totaled 2104.5 points, while Nasdaq Composite rose 73.4 points (1.45%) and closed at 5127.5. Strong macroeconomic data from Euro zone and US corporate data along with promising figures from China boosted US stock markets. October Purchasing managers Index (PMI) in processing industries published by Chinese agency Caixin and Markit leaps from 47.2 to 48.3 points. Same index published by China National Statistics Bureau remained unchanged and averaged 49.8, missing expectations of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, who anticipated the rise to 50 points. PMI for manufacturing industries of 18 EU countries rose to 52.3 points, according to the data of Markit Economics. Tentative data showed that the indicator would remain unchanged at the September level of 52 points and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg didn’t expect an abrupt change. Web-retailers Amazon surged 35%, Microsoft 32%, Facebook 24%. This week analysts expect the publication of Q3 data for 100 companies included in the S&P 500 index. From the companies reported their return data, 75% beat expectations, while only 45% to report turnover data which was higher than estimates. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

USD drops on weak China manufacturing data A drop in China factory activity sends USD way down… Investors are quitting China equities fearing that a slow growth will further increase debt burden of Chinese companies that keep production at the same pace. USDX declined 0.21% to 96.740 while USD/JPY dropped 0.17% to 120.41 level. Official China manufacturing activity report released on Sunday showed a decrease for three months in a row, with manufacturing PMI remaining unchanged at 49.8. The figure released misses the forecast of median 50.0, according to the WSJ’s poll of 11 economists. BoJ announced on Friday that it will keep its QE policy and fiscal rate intact despite the deflation forecast and the country’s slowing down economy. “Someone could be frustrated with the BoJ decision, so the focus is shifted to the Non-Farm Payroll report from US to be released on 6 Nov.”, – Said Kaneo Ogino, CEO of foreign exchange research firm in Tokyo. The Non-Farm employment data to be issued by the US Labor department on Friday will shed some light on the rate hike decision in December. Fed decided to not change the rate in October but it was clear from the report that strong enough macroeconomic data may urge them to increase Dollar borrowing costs. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

GDP data below expectations, domestic consumption saves the US growth Oil prices are falling on release of the US GDP report, which has shown considerable lack of growth of the US economy. According to the report, Q3 GDP growth is 1.5% comparing to more solid 3.9% in Q2. The figure fell short of expectations which predicted growth of 1.6%. Despite strong domestic demand, dollar strength and cheaper gasoline slowed down inflation. Analysts are expecting reduced trading volumes on the eve of China PMI data publication next week. “The guts of the report were healthy, they still show strong underlying momentum in the economy and that puts a December rate hike firmly on the table,” said Thomas Costerg, a US economist at Standard Chartered Bank in New York. The view of Fed on US economy could be described as “satisfactory” according to the FOMC report, US economy is growing at “moderate pace” which leaves food for thought for investors regarding December rate hike. Weak GDP data is caused by a decline in inventories accumulation by US firms with the total of $56.8 billion in Q3 comparing to $113.5 billion in the Q2 period. The decrease included manufacturing, retail and wholesale inventories. Another reason of US growth slowdown is spending cuts in the energy sector. Oil producers are continuing to reduce their spending as cheap Oil prices make it difficult to keep production paying off. We continue to keep an eye on US economic reports as its analysis is crucial for accurate forecast of FOMC decision in December regarding the rate hike. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

Fed rate is untouched, December decision is unclear US Fed Reserve postpones the decision to hike the rate with insufficient labor data and missing inflation targets. The rate remained unchanged at the level of 0-0.25% and will stay as it is during next two month until it is revised in December. The odds of rate hike in December increased as worries regarding the US being affected by global risks were eased, according to the Fed report. This gives additional cues for traders as stagnating global economy which was mentioned in September report was one of the reasons to postpone the rate hike. FOMC also reported that job creation in US is slowing while jobless rate stays still. “The committee continues to consider the risks of economic activity forecast and labor market balanced”, – reported Fed, which considers US economy grows steady. Majority of committee members expect the rate to rise in 2015 and two of them underscored that weak world growth may harm US economy and keep inflation too low. In the final report Fed officials said that they want to be quite sure that inflation targets of 2% will be met by the end of the year. Market participants expected this decision: 90 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg were convinced that rate will remain on same level. So no severe market response noticed. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

Twitter Q4 revenue report may disappoint investors Twitter revenue forecast for Q4 falls short of estimates because of slowing growth of new users. As a result, shares of the company dropped by almost 13%. Twitter expects its Q4 revenue to reach $695-710M, which is considerably lower than expectations of analysts surveyed by Reuter: $739.7M. Company’s management doesn’t reveal the reason of a decrease in the forecast, but analysts suggest that it is due to the weak growth of new users and Instagram market share increase in mobile ads sector. The number of active users have increased by 4M and totaling 320M, though failed to live up to analysts’ expectations of 324M. New Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, who took his office in September, undertook significant personnel cut of 300 employees. He said that resources released will be spent on solving other important problems. Twitter shares dropped to $27.38 during the extended trading session then recovering to $31.34 level. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

Do traders still believe in rate liftoff in October? Most traders completely abandoned their expectations of Fed rate hike this year as world economy continues to slow down. Analysts have the same opinion, Bloomberg survey showed: 63 of market analysts said they shifted their estimates of Fed Rate liftoff to March 2016 and it is very unlikely that it will happen this year. Interest rate futures estimate the odds of October rate increase in just 4% and 34.7% in December. Fiscal policy in China presents yet another obstacle in increasing the costs of borrowing in US which has been kept unchanged from 2006, WSJ says. Last Friday China’s CB lowered its rates on borrowings and deposits, removing the rate cap on all types of bank deposits. Meanwhile Japan reports a drop in exports and ECB continues to fight back with deflation, extending its QE program till September 2016. Macroeconomic data from US were mixed in the past months. Fed’s official, Daniel Tarullo, said he sees an increase of borrowing costs as an unreasonable measure. However some of his colleagues noted that rate hike is still possible if the US economy shows signs of stability. “Bond markets do not believe anymore in Fed rhetorics on rate hike, so Fed is put in a bad box now”, – says Jason Evans co-founder of NineAlpha Capital LP hedge fund. We remind traders that tomorrow on 28th of October at 1pm ET, FOMC will hold its minutes and announce Fed Funds Rate. We advise traders to keep a close watch on these high-impact fundamental releases and manage trading risks properly as market volatility is expected. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

EUR/USD is just heading South If you take a look at the latest CFTC report regarding Euro, then you will soon notice that operators continue to build up the short positions on EUR compared to the other market players who are trying to build up the long positions: It becomes quite clear that it would be wise to expect a drop in the exchange rate of the common currency taking into consideration completely opposite monetary policies of the two central banks. In the daily graph, upstream channel will soon become very interesting to us as we will not only be able to jump off it, but also to break it through: For now we will place a pending order for sale away from the broken down internal uptrend before the EUR touched the upstream channel: Sell Limit 1.1075, Stop Loss 1.1125, Take Profit 1.0925.

US increase its Oil reserves, prices suffer US increase its Oil reserves, prices suffer Oil reserves were increased by 7.1M barrels and reached 473M barrels by the end of last week, reported American Petroleum Institute (API). Although analysts expected the supply increase only by 3.9B barrels, the actual data exceeded the figures twice. Distillate reserves shrunk by 2.6B barrels. WTI fell by 0.89% upon the data from the US with a potential to drop further. DJIA and S&P 500 lost 0.08% and 0.14% yesterday with Asian stocks are struggling to overcome a weak US lead. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

Will ECB prolong its QE program? AS ECB meeting is coming, EUR/USD continues to rise on a forecast that EU policymakers will keep up with their QE program, preparing additional measures to give a new impulse for the economy. EUR/USD added 0.04% in London session today rising to $1.1330. Cheap Oil brought a steady deflation on consumer goods so some analysts believe that ECB may expand its program in asset buyout. This program may be extended to September 2016, with monthly buyout volume equal to 60 billion EUR. The meeting regarding this question will be held this Thursday. According to the Chief Analyst of fixed-investment markets of U.S. Bank Wealth Management, Jennifer Wale, ECB will be likely to prolong its program, but the decision can be made no earlier than the December meeting. After the ECB event, FOMC meeting scheduled for 27-28th of October will be in the spotlight. According to the interest rate futures, the odds of Fed’s rate hike in March 2016 are 52%. Fed officials supply public with confusing messages: some of them say that the rate hike could be an appropriate measure for this year. USD Index declined by 0.04% to 94.893, USD/JPY rose by 0.03% to 119.45. We continue to closely monitor ECB and FOMC decisions and update you on the most recent and important economic news. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

US Indices are following the world economy recover US indices had a gradual rise on Monday with S&P 500 index increasing to 7-week high reaching 2017.46 at yesterday’s session closing. Investors are waiting for the fiscal reports releases from large US companies to see how world economic slowdown affected their returns. Around 35 US firms included in S&P Index will be publishing their return financial data this week, like Intel, Johnson&Johnson, General Electric, Schlumberger and others. According to Bloomberg analysts, companies from S&P Index had their net profit shrunk by 7.2% last quarter comparing to the same period last year. On October 12th DJIA rose by 47.37 (0.28%) and reached 17131.86 points. Nasdaq composite increased by 0.17% with 3838.64 points on the session close. As expected EMC, US data storage manufacturer, rose by 1.8% after its merge deal with Dell became known (EMC were bought by Dell for $67 bn.) Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

China’s slowing economy keeps investors in suspense – safe haven assets are in focus China’s slowing economy keeps investors in suspense – safe haven assets are in focus China’s Industrial Fall continues to erode confidence in markets – investors are steering clear from excessive bullish activity and switching their focus to safe haven assets. The data on industrial performance released on Sunday fell short of expectations showing only 6.1% growth instead of expected 6.6%. According to the report, the fixed-asset investment figures were also lower than anticipated: 10.9% vs expected 11.2%. China’s weak data had an immediate response in European stocks: STOXX Europe 600 index fell by 0.5% after the start of a trading session. Volkswagen AG experienced another acute fall of 5.5%. Even with their new CEO Matthias Mueller market is too shaky to take this change as a favorable sign. Glencore Plc. shares continue to lose their buying interest with the Iron Ore prices completely seized by bears. Vodafone has plummeted by 3.9 percent after stating that the negotiation with Liberty Global Plc. on exchange assets matter is over. On the flip side there is an increased market appetite to Japanese Yen as a relatively stable currency considered as a safe haven now. On the wave of European stocks decline JPY is strengthening against USD, with USD/JPY heading to new low 119.50 – 120.00 level. Bearish movement on this pair is likely to continue in today’s NY session. Source : Tickmill market commentary