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Oil plunges on fears of the U.S. stockpiles increase The pressure on Oil increases ahead of EIA data set to be released today. The consensus suggests that U.S. Crude Stockpiles grew last week by 2.7M bbl., increasing the surplus. WTI futures fell by 3.2% to 27.55, breaking the $28 level at ease, while Brent prices dropped by 2% to $28.16. Market remains clueless regarding the pace at which Iran is planning to return to its pre-sanctions supply levels. This uncertainty creates a possibility for Oil to fall further. Asian indices are dragged down with bearish sentiments on the Oil market. Chinese index ShComp is down by 1.07%, Nikkei 225 decisively entered the red zone with a 3.71% loss today. Meanwhile the U.S. Treasury department has reported on Tuesday that the buy-out of U.S. treasuries had been resumed in November after a sell-off in October, which is the first time in nine months. Risk apprehensions have increased on the impact of series of rate hikes to be done this year so the size of buy-out concluded $31.4B in November comparing to $17.7B of sold bonds in October. Raw data suggested that the amount of bonds sold in October averaged $16.6B. The majority of Treasury Bills (around $36.3B) went in private hands, comparing to the sale of $36.7B in October. Foreign governments, international and local organizations purchased only $2.02B of the U.S. government bonds after a panic sell-off of $18.4B in October. According to the recent data, China holds the biggest part of the U.S. debt: around $1.264T, which is the highest from August 2015. The second largest lender is Japan with $1.145T of U.S. Treasuries on hands. Foreign central banks have controlled about $6.126T of the U.S. debt in November, comparing to $6.048T in October. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

$30 level seems to be broken: WTI heads towards $25 Oil prices fell below $30 on Friday after a 2% surge on Thursday as investors expect that supply of Iranian Oil to the world market will further worsen the surplus. WTI refreshed its local lows plunging as low as the $29.66 level, making this the third consecutive week of a steady decline. The price has already dropped by almost 20% from the start of 2016. Iran Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh said earlier that Oil supplies from Iran will be resumed under any market conditions. With current acute political tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, Oil market is likely to become another arena for confrontation. With prices dropping below the $30 level, tearing important psychological barrier, it is likely that any substantial resistance will be offered only at the $25 and $20 levels. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

Iran’s comeback makes Brent cheaper than WTI Oil prices went into yet another plunge to 12-years lows as market expects a supply boost from Iran which is sanction-free now. By 05:55 GMT Brent Futures declined by $0.12 to $30.19/bbl. while WTI futures rose slightly by $0.31 to $30.79. Earlier on Thursday the ICE benchmark plunged to the lowest point of $29.73 since February 2004. American benchmark is now more expensive than Brent. This indicates that there are serious concerns about Iran’s comeback to the Oil market with boosted supply. When this happens, the price margin between the two benchmarks might become even wider. Gloomy sentiments also deepen with EIA data released yesterday, showing that US gained gasoline reserves by 8.4M barrels and distillate reserves by 6.1M barrels. It is now obvious that the $30 level doesn’t seem so stable. The movement around the $30-31 level for the last several days without any signs of upturn indicates that bears are consolidating their forces to make a breakout of a psychologically important level and then heading towards the $25 and then even the $20 levels. US Stocks extend losses from last week on risk-averse sentiments spurred among investors: DJIA -2.21%, S&P500 -2.50%. European index FTSE100 suffered around 1% loss today. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

EUR/USD and a few words about inflation Last year, the Fed rose interest rates. The hike was very insignificant at best. Now, the market has another question: will the rates be increased in 2016 and how fast? Despite having some success on the labor market, there is nothing good to say about inflation. Below you can find a line graph with two lines: blue is inflation level in the US, yellow is CRB commodity index. The latter shows the overall trend within the commodity block: It is clear from the graph that the inflation is closely correlated with the commodity index. Also, you can see that the CRB index is way ahead of inflation. In layman’s terms, it means that as commodity markets suffer a decline, inflation is sure to follow shortly after and vice versa. Now however, we see a steady decline of the commodity market, which may result in further decrease of inflation in the US or so called ‘standstill’. In this situation, it is pointless to wait for desired inflation rate of 2%. On the other hand, interest rates are usually increased as inflation grows and vice versa. Now the Fed is faced with a simple question: will the rates continue increasing with such low inflation? Maybe the rate increase in 2015 was just a gesture of good will? A signal to the markets that the Fed does not sleep? Moreover, was there a desire to tighten the monetary policy in the first place? As of today, we can draw just one conclusion for certain – as long as commodity markets do not grow, we will not see inflation at desired levels. We will not see a steady rate increase either. The Fed observes the market and waits. Thus, we shall wait as well! Now, let’s review the situation with currency pairs. USD/RUB The Russian ruble has broken the key resistance level of 71.50, so now we wait for the pair to grow up to 79.50. The rapid growth of oil market can ruin our plans there, although there are no prerequisites for the restoration of ‘black gold’ yet: GOLD We will sell gold near the breached ascending channel at the newly formed reverse candlestick signals: EUR/USD We can see a potential bullish flag forming with the Euro – the long white candle (flagpole) and a nice flag. If the flag gets broken, we shall buy the Euro on rollback with our take profit at 1.1450 (height of the flagpole): By the way, according to the latest data from COT CFTC, the operators are up to their ears in buying the Euro, while other market participants have short positions open with EUR/USD. The current disposition indicates that the Euro continues its movement: If we look at the weekly chart, the last candle had closed with a hammer, which pressed against the level of 1.0820 and potentially points to growth of the Euro:

Oil prices burst a $31 level, while ShComp shows moderate gains Oil prices keep their ordinary bearish routine breaking the last barricade of $31/bbl. before reaching an important $30 level. WTI plunged as low as $30.41 currently hovering in a range of $30.50 – $30.60. In only 10 days, the commodity lost about 20% and rock bottom seems not somewhere near current levels, analysts say. Brent futures also crashed to a $30.62 level, which it the lowest since April 2004. According to the latest CFTC report, the disparity between bearish and bullish bets on the commodity increased to 5-year high with bearish bets prevailing. Major world banks like Barclays, Macquarie, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Standard Chartered and Society Generale reduced forecast on Oil price in 2016. In 2016, Barclays expects an average WTI price at the level of 37$/bbl. comparing to the last forecast of $56$/bbl. Standard Chartered released the most pessimistic outlook: according to its analysts, the prices may drop to $10/bbl. The US indices are still depressed with no signs for upturn as the performance of Chinese economy is insufficient and low Oil prices pull the US Oil and pipeline companies down: DJIA -0.17%, S&P 500 -0.16%, FTSE 100 +0.36%. Chinese index Shanghai Composite is in a moderate gain today (+0.2%) as Chinese government managed to maintain Yuan exchange rate ramping up interventions. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

WTI weighs anchor as CFTC shows significant cut in bullish bets Stock markets in Asia are extending their diving ahead of important economic releases in the region and Tokyo Exchange is closed on holiday today. The S&P index is down 1.95%, ASX 200 shows the same drop and the main indicator of Chinese economic health – Shanghai Composite – extends last week’s losses by 0.93%. Investors are keeping tabs on fuel tensions in the Middle East expecting another spin in the collision between Saudi Arabia and its allies and Iran. Another point of focus is official economic statements from China, which actions (as was proven last week) can deliver serious distress to local and world stock markets. This week, investors expect the release of China Trade Balance (Wednesday), which will indicate the pace Chinese economy recovers with and give clues on further monetary policy of Chinese authorities. Important economic data from the US to be released this week might also be worth looking at, especially the US Retail Sales (Friday), Manufacturing Prices and Consumer Sentiments. On Thursday, a protocol of BoE meeting will be published, so volatility for GBP is expected. WTI resumed decrease in Asian session and is likely to ripple over next trading sessions. Economic growth in China shows no substantial signs of upturn and Hedge Funds exit from their bullish bets on Oil cutting them to 5-year low (-50,000 contracts) according to CTFC report. The prices depressed by 2.5% extending last week’s significant 10% loss finding daily low at 32.26 and then bouncing to 32.35 as of 07:42 GMT today. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

US Payrolls: Quick Take - CIBC The following is a quick take on today's US jobs report as provided by CIBC World Markets. We may be moving into 2016 but the general theme of strong job gains but still tame wage pressures remains. Payrolls were well ahead of consensus expectations at 292K in December, with a net upward revision of 50K to the previous two months. Construction and service sector hiring once again drove the increase in payrolls. However, despite the continued sharp intake of jobs, wage inflation remains largely subdued. The annual rate of average earnings may have accelerated to 2.5%, from 2.3% in the prior month, however that was largely due to favourable base effects rather than any real strength in the current month. Indeed, wages were flat on the month in December. And with less favourable base effects in January, the y/y rate is likely to move down to around 2¼% next time. The strength of the job gains should keep the Fed on track for one more hike in interest rates in March should financial market volatility subside, but signs of inflation picking up will likely be needed to convince more dovish members to support further hikes beyond that. Elsewhere in the report the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0%, and the wider U6 measure was also unchanged at 9.9%.

Oil hits 11-year low and PBOC lets up Yuan drop Mounting Oil stockpiles around the world shatter hopes for the commodity bidders to see prices picking up in the near future. WTI was sent in a deep 2.45% plunge to $34.92, while Brent sunk to 11-year low point falling below $35. Traders are riveted to the crude stockpiles report from EIA that is due later today. Experts’ consensus anticipates that the report will show an increase in US oil reserves by 500,000 barrels last week. Today Brent futures extended their Tuesday decline losing more than 7% in two days and hitting rock bottom in the last 11 years. WTI price slumped by 2.45% with gloomy outlook to sink further – near a 30-point level. The Middle East conflict failed to induce sustainable upward movement in Oil prices as global surplus still exceeds shrinking consumption pace. European equities are trading in the red zone today as Asian stocks fell after PBOC loosened Yuan rate to US Dollar, what resulted in over a 2% depreciation of Chinese currency to its US rival. FTSE 100 is down 1.51%, S&P 500 lost 1.57% and DJIA fell by 1.46%. Russian currency is following the sinking Oil in a rapid decline against its American peer. USD/RUB broke 74 level today with potential for further bullish movement. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

European indices are in upbeat mode, while WTI shows no clear trend Source : Tickmill market Commentary

First Monday of 2016: oil prices rally, touch-and-go assets show decrease Best Regrads Tickmill Forex-CFDs-Precious Metals

China PBOC Adopts New Macro-Prudential System To Prevent Risks Best Regrads Tickmill - Forex-CFDs-Precious Metals ECN Forex brokers We want traders to succeed

No chances for Oil bulls: yesterday’s sharp fall and global surplus Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

The market is thinner and thinner near Christmas! source : Tickmill Market Commentary Best Regrads. Tickmill - Forex - CFDs - Precious Metals

Fed has increased the interest rates. So what? Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

Fed lifts up the rate, USD strengthens, US builds up crude inventories source : Tickmill Market Commentary

Stock markets rally ahead of Fed’s decision while Oil outlook is gloomy Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

Ruble entered another wave of devaluation, Oil is in a free fall Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

Sanctions against Russia are about to be extended Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

USD weakens before the FOMC December meeting Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

yeah i heard many reputable brokers out there suffering big loesses and some of them closed their business it is a big move of Forex Currency pair that i always remember. price moving so fast, brokers have problem managing their leveraged risk in their liquidty and some of them even charge and pursue it is customer to pay negative balance i am in luck, my broker Tickmill survive that storm, and even pay any profit generated from CHF crazy moves i think Tickmill is smartly managing their risk in their liquidity

US stocks closed with a loss on Monday, Oil prices dropped sharply source : Tickmill Market Commentary

Euro suddenly surged against Dollar. Oil prices increase. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary Best Regrads Tickmill - Forex , CFDs , Precious Metals We want traders to succeed

China’s economy stalls.USD bulls eased the pressure on Euro and Yen. Source : Tickmill Market Commentary

This is going to be a fun week for EUR/USD Upcoming week is crucial for the EUR/USD pair and especially for the US Dollar. There is the ECB meeting and the US Non-farm payrolls scheduled for this week. As for the ECB meeting, we anticipate a continuation or even an increase of the QE program as well as further decrease of the deposit rates. In fact, falling Euro is a good tendency for the Eurozone, considering its deflation perspective. As for the US Dollar, it is worth expecting a strong data on the labor market, although the Fed officials’ comments can weaken Dollar. Let us remind, that the Fed’s committee is not pleased by the Dollar’s strengthening in the world market as this starts to harm American exporters. In general, there are chances of Euro’s correction considering that we have come to the important support levels for the EUR/USD pair. source : Tickmill Market Commentary

North correction on the commodity market Commodity assets and currencies signal about a possible correction to growth. However, it is only a correction as the market is waiting for the interest rate increase in December. If this happens, then the commodity unit has all the chances to continue its movement south. Gold NZD/USD Silver