Schaefer

Hi DB, where did everyone go? It's been dead across the usual forums. I hope you're doing well. Schaefer BMT. No trolls. Self-moderating threads. Motivated people (at least so far as the SLA is concerned). Granted there are only 2-3 people maintaining journals, but there hasn't been a single harassing post to me or to anyone associated with me. Why I wasted so much time at ET is a mystery to me. I have only one thread at BMT. You won't have any trouble finding me.

Good Morning, everyone. The construction at my office still continues, and my internet may drop any time, so I'll try and get this in quick, while I'm online. Long Term Analysis: The Weekly uptrend is still intact, however, this week's bar has created a pronounced LH, as it is unable to breach the previous week's high. It will also become an engulfing bar, IF the bar completes the way it is right now for the week. Price has breached the mean of the weekly trend channel, and approaching the mean of this last swing. The Daily is looking more bearish with a LH double top, and breached the low of the last swing. However, yesterday was a climatic parabolic drop with volume exhaustion, so we may see some reprieve today. Weekly & Daily. Short Term Analysis: The overnight price action was bearish, as expected, as Asian and European markets took the sympathetic drop, as well. However, price found some buyers, around 4270 (pre market low), created a double bottome, and it is now approaching the pre market mean. It is important to note that, we are now between the weekly trend channel mean, pre market mean, and the mean of the last weekly swing. 130 minute & 30 minute. Plan of Action for the Day: We've just broken out of the pre market range, so look for longs on retracements, and look for shorts from yesterday's mean area. 0935: Longed at 79.50, stop 77.50, really late on that one. 0941: Stop at BE +1. 0947: Target hit at 4300, flat, reassessing. 1031: Welp, I missed out on that "V" reversal from the high, and the second bounce from the bottom due to distractions at the office. So, right now we're in the middle of the range, so will wait till we get to the extreme, and reassess. 1132: We're still stuck in the middle of day high, and day low. However, price seems to be closing in on the day high, and the trend line from over night action. We'll have to wait and see, if it'll break out, or not. 30 minute chart. 1234: Price has tested the previous day low, and immediately got rejected. It may retest the means, and 92 area. 30 minute chart. 1503: Price double bottomed just above the mean, and tested the pre market high. So far, the sentiment has been pretty bearish, even though, we've rejected the bottom pretty hard. 1617: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. Price was unable to close above previous day's low; it tested, but immediately rejected by traders. Price did manage to close in the upper half of today's range. 30 minute chart. Summary: It was an interesting day, as price hovered around the lows of last two weeks, as well as the mean of the weekly trend channel. Price was pretty volatile, yet, trendy in the morning, but that quickly went away with the first range forming around 1100 hours. After that, it ranged up, and down multiple times between previous day low, and the two important means. Learned Today: I need more practice in taking "V" reversals. Schaefer

Good Morning, everyone. A very late start today, as another round of internet problems here at my place of business. Long Term Analysis: The Weekly is still in uptrend, and we're in a pullback from last week's engulfing bull trend bar. Today's already Wednesday, and we've still not breached the high of last week's, so that's weakness. However, we're still above the mean of last week's bar, and way above the mean of last swing. Daily is definitely weaker with a pronounced LH. Yesterday was a weak doji bearish bar, in price action definition, it was bearish, as it tested the previous day high, only to be pushed all the way down past the previous day's low, and ended the day near the bottom. Weekly & Daily. Short Term Analysis: The overnight price action was mixed, as price could not go above yesterday's mean, and could not go below yesterday's low. The pre market action was a bit more volatile, as it tested the low, and created a new high. So we have a pronounced range to trade the market. 130 & 30 minute. Plan of Action for the Day: Already missed the opening sell off, but we still have a long ways to go to the next lower congestion area. So, shorts all day. 1515: Finally got my internet service back, and we've already reached our next closest lower congestion area. Incidentally, it happens to be the low of 03/18. 130 minute chart. Schaefer

DB taught me to always look to the left. It was the pre market low/congestion from 3/19 (I think).

Good Morning, everyone. Today's going to be a good day to trade. Long Term Analysis: The Weekly uptrend is still intact, and price appears to be in pullback from last week's strong bull trend bar. Last week's bar maintained the HH, HL. The Daily looks a bit more weaker than the Weekly. Friday was a weak bull trend bar, and yesterday was decent bear trend bar, as well as "inside bar". In candle stick world, this is a classic retardation in momentum. It doesn't mean "reversal", but a slow down in momentum. Weekly and Daily. Short Term Analysis: The overnight price action was mixed, but volatility picked up early in the morning. Price tested the yesterday's low, rejected immediately, created a double top (pre market high), and sold off all the gains the bulls made in the last few hours. The 130 minute chart shows a distinct LHs, and LLs. 130 minute and 30 minute. Plan of Action for the Day: Previous day low is going to be the key today. It will either break down, or bounce from there. If you look at the 30 minute chart, you'd see DB's, "Hot Stove" behavior very clearly. 0940: Price looking weak here, it may breakdown, but don't jump the gun, wait for "second chance" entry. 0946: Hot stove; Failed to break down. 0948: High 45.50, Low 32, Higher low 40.75. Longed for a quick scalp to the mean. Longed 36.75, stop 36, target 45. 0952: Stop to 41. 0955: Stop to 43. 0956: Out at 43. Came within 1 tick of the target. Do not move the target, discipline is the key. 1012: Now tested, and rejected from the upper extreme. 15 minute chart. 1018: Rejection of the rejection. 1025: Rejection of the rejection's, rejection..lol Sitting on hands for now. 1031: Long 51, stop 50.25, target prev. day high. 1035: Stopped at 50.25. 1102: Sitting on hands still. The 30 minute bar is showing weakness. High 56, Low 51.25, and LH 54.75. 1107: Breakout; Longed 55, stop 53, target day high. 1108: Stop at 54.50. 1124: Stop at 57.50. 1128: Stopped at 57.50. 1148: Re longed at 57, stop 56.25, target 69. 1325: Okay, came back from lunch, and it was stopped. Will wait until it gets to the lower extreme. 30 minute chart. 1346: Short here at 39.50, Stop 40, Target 28. 1421: Time stop, will assess at end of 30 minute bar. 1436: Target hit at 28, a couple of minutes ago. Now flat, re-assessing. 1620: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. After tagging 28, price retraced all the way back to 40, and then did another run down, and ended at 30.50. 30 & 15 minute chart. Summary: Today was another classic AMT day, and price traversed yesterday's range; up and then down. Price opened up around mean of pre market, again, then tested the lows (hot stove), then it shot up like a rocket to the upper extreme. Then did a "V" reversal back to the lower extreme. Learned Today: No need to be scalping, when you have a pronounced range, just buy, or sell at the extremes, then LITHA (DB's, Leave It The Hell A Lone). Reading the "right tick" at the extremes is the key to proper entry, but do not get too carried away from the actual, "Price Extremes", as it is more important than the "right tick". Schaefer

Good Morning, everyone! Another day of NQ trading. Long Term Analysis: The Weekly is still uptrending, however, approaching the previous swing high, as well as the upper trend channel line. So, we should be seeing interesting price action soon. The Daily concurs, and last Friday was a weak Bull trend bar, with a pronounced wick at the top, indicating sellers started coming in towards the end of the day. Weekly & Daily. Short Term Analysis: Two lower highs on the 130 minute chart, and a SLA supply line is in effect. However, broke through the supply at the open, and forming a range at the moment. Note: The mean of current range, and previous day mean overlapping each other, meaning we will have messy price action around this area. 130 minute & 30 minute. Plan of Action for the Day: Range is too small to play, wait till price leaves this range, and apply SLA. 1143: We're still in that little range, and nothing else happening, so we sit on our hands. 30 minute chart. 1234: We're still in the range. So far, we're seeing some pop up action, as I type this. 30 minute chart. 1346: Still sitting on hands, and now we have a hinge, and traders may seek new equilibrium at a different level. 15 minute chart. 1642: Had internet outage here at my office, so no updates. However, looking back in hindsight; we had a hinge, then breakout to the upside, then double topped at the extreme of the upper range, and sold off all the way back down to the extreme of the lower range. 15 minute. Summary: A classic range bound day. Price opened at the mean of yesterday, and pre market, so high probability that price would be range bound. Right off the gate, it tested the lower extreme, then upper extreme, then the mean, then the upper extreme, and finally, the lower extreme to finish the day. Learned to day: Some days, it's better to sit on your hands, or go do something else, than trying to force the trades. The range was about 15 - 16 points, it's definitely tradable. However, the only worthwhile run was the sell off from 1430, but no one knows in advance. Learning to read the "right tick" at the extremes, kept me out of trouble today. Schaefer

Thank you DB, I'm saving these pics. They helped a lot, especially the 15 minute one. Schaefer

DB, Good Morning, I'm still learning the SLA. Did I fan this last line correctly? Thanks, Schaefer Technically, yes, but it is of little value except in hindsight. In real time, each ranging pause acts as a reset, so the current trend doesn't actually "begin" until price exited the range this morning. None of which really matters since the "target" is 4500. The purpose of the SLA is to get you there. Okay, got it. Thank you, Sir. Schaefer

Good Morning, everyone. I woke up early this morning, and saw the market going ballistic, again. My sim swing trade is up 37 points at the moment, and I've moved my stop to 35 to protect the position. Long Term Analysis: The weekly is quickly approaching the upper trend channel line, and swing high of 83 from the week of 03/02. So far, the candle is a strong Bull trend bar. The Daily concurs, and yesterday was a small doji bar, or a pause bar. Weekly and Daily. Short Term Analysis: Strong over night price action, as price never tested yesterday's low. Pre market price action is even stronger, as it breached yesterday's high, and going parabolic at the moment. 130 minute and 30 minute. Plan of Action for the Day: Take profits between 60 and 65, other wise, enjoy the perks of swing trading; surf the net, watch porn, play violent games, watch DB and Fortydraws making fools out of trolls on ET, etc. 0915: First target hit at 60, taking partial profits. Moving stop for the rest to 48. Trade now at 44 points. 0948: 48 is the mean of last breakout swing, so will watch what happens, when price breaches 48. But until then, still in the trade. 0957: First swing low has been created at 48.25. Last swing high is 61.24. 1040: Stop moved to 48. 1118: We're now in a range, not unlike yesterday. Took partial profits again at 61. 1152: Final target hit at 65, and I'm now flat for a 44 point trade. 1301: Apparently, the up side move is not over yet for the day, which makes sense, because most of the move happened pre market. 30 minute. 1614: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. Price made one last swing high, then sold off for the weekend. It is important to note, that the demand line drawn in hindsight on 130 minute chart has been breached, and supply line on the 5 minute chart has been established solid. 30 minute chart. Summary: The Weekly ended up solidly, as an engulfing bull trend bar, and only 11 points to go to test the all time high of 83.25. Price action tells me, that it will surpass next week. Learned this week: - NQ being a mean reverting instrument, tends to reverse at the extremes, more often than it does on break outs. - Re-energized SLA. *Reset SLA, when a range is formed. - Started to emphasize more on swing trading. When jockeying for position during entry for a swing position, and encounter a range; it is far more profitable to day trade the range, and when price breaks out/down, then take the break out/down for swing. Have a nice weekend, Schaefer

Good Morning everyone. Long Term Analysis: The Weekly and Daily uptrend is still intact. The weekly is way above the 50% retracement level of the most recent swing. The Daily concurs, and approaching the upper trend channel line. Yesterday was a monster bull trend bar, but volume shows some exhaustion, due to the climatic run, yesterday. Weekly and Daily. Short Term Analysis: The 130 minute chart shows a parabolic climb, yesterday, and due to the new high, we now have an anchor point for a demand line. The 30 minute chart shows a strong overnight and pre market, as it did not retrace much. However, price has triple topped from yesterday's high, and two double tops during pre market. 130 and 30 minute. Plan of Action for the Day: As per DBs recommendations, I will be looking for longer term trades, instead of scalping. This will be on Sim, to get comfortable. I will be looking for retracement from yesterday to go long per the 130 minute chart. 0944: Price retracing nicely here, my buy zone would be between 86 and 96 area. 0949: Price having hard time breaching the pre market low. 0952: Longed at 17.50, as pre market low is providing strong support. 0955: Stop moved to 16. 1000: Stop moved to BE +1 1150: Stopped out by the spike down, will re-enter. 1156: Re-entered long 21.50. 1211: Scratched at BE. Consecutive LHs, and a hinge on 5, and 15 minute charts. 15 minute chart. 1226: Re-longed at 22, Stop at 19. 1321: Stopped out. Re-entered at 16.75. The bulls are fiercely defending the pre market low. 1332: Stop moved to BE +1. 1500: Still in the trade. Some serious roadblock at 28. 15 minute chart. 1629: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. Price pretty much stayed around the mean of pre market, seeking equilibrium. The trade is still on, and stop has been moved to 11 to protect the position. 30 minute chart. Summary: The market was in a pronounced range between 13 and 28, the entire session. I might have chosen a bad day to swing trade, as usually the day after a cliamtic day is problematic. However, good news is my last entry is pretty close to the bottom of the range, so even if stopped out, won't be of much damage. Learned Today: Need to re-examine, when to play the range, and when to let the range play turn into a swing play. Even though, the entries were correct, hoping for the price to break out is less profitable, than simply taking profits at he extremes, and re-entering, when it breaks out/down. Also, trading a larger bar interval doesn't necessarily have to use a larger stop, either. My largest MAE today was 3 points, and MFE was 15 points. Schaefer

Good Morning, everyone. FOMC Day, today and as usual, anything can happen. But typically, we should have a tradable range in the morning, range and chop around noon, and go wild at 2pm. Long Term Analysis: Weekly uptrend is still intact, and still above the 50% retracement on the most recent swing. Daily concurs the bounce from the mean, and approaching 50% retracement on most recent swing. Yesterday was a good bull trend bar. Weekly & Daily charts. Short Term Analysis: The 130 minute chart showing weakness, as it broke the demand line, but still above the 50% median line for the most recent swing from 03/15. The 60 minute showing double top from yesterday's high. It has also breached below the mean of yesterday's range. So essentially, we're back in yesterday's range. 130 minute & 60 minute. Plan of Action for the Day: Today is FOMC day, and it will be messy. Today's playing field will be the yesterday's range, and I will be paying particular attention around yesterday's mean, which coincidentally overlaps with yesterday's pivot point. Longs above mean, shorts below. AMT from previous day high, and low. 0926: Pre market has found the low, and now we have pre market high, and low, as well as the mean. Price stalling at day mean, at the moment. 0934: Price opened right at the mean of yesterday. Shorted for a quick scalp. 0939: Out of low of pre market. 0941: Re shorted. 0945: Stop at 53.25, target 42. 0959: Stopped at 52.50, flat. 1100: Finally, price has breached the mean of yesterday, and the pivot point. Even though, the price has risen from the lows, it has been extremely exhausting, and slow grinding. However, when it drops, it drops very quickly. So, not going long yet, just because, it has breached the mean. 1116: Long 60.50, stop 59.75. 1125: Scratch at BE, not moving. 1131: Sell order at 55. 1135: Scratch -4 ticks. 1148: Reshorted at 55, 3 tick stop. 1158: Stopped - 3 ticks. Okay, I'm making the broker happy today. 1230: Sitting on hands for now, until the report comes out at 2pm. 1330: Quickly approaching the previous day low, and it's almost 2pm. So, fireworks should be here soon. I usually, do not trade this way with extremely tight stops, but on FOMC Day, anything could happen, and I'd rather be on safe side. 30 minute chart. 1427: Okay, apparently the Feds have solved the entire Wall Street's problems, and everything is good to go again. 30 minute chart. 1431: Never too late to join the party. Long here at 02. 1434: Target 17, and 20, Stop 03. 1449: Scratched at 05. 1610: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. Price has gone parabolic in the last hour, and a half, and it still managed to close out the day near the top. 15 & 30 minute. Summary: Market opened at yesterday's mean, tested the pre market low, tested the mean, and tested the previous day low, and took off to the moon. It was pretty orderly for a FOMC day. However, I did not get much out of the day, as aside from scalping here, and there, I don't really trade FOMC days. Note: Price will be retesting the upper trend channel line, a lot sooner than expected. Schaefer

I believe, DB said, no charts under 15 minute time frame in that particular thread. He's trying to encourage more people to swing trade, or at least intraday swing, as most people do not have the luxury of actively day trading the entire session. Schaefer

Good Morning, everyone. Here's what I'm looking at; essentially the same as DB's, but mine are prettier. Long Term Analysis: The daily appears to be turning back up towards the upper trend channel line. The previous swing high was a HH, so uptrend is still intact. Yesterday was almost an engulfing bar, which is one of my criteria for a reversal. It is also a wide range bar (WRB), which is tricky to trade. Daily and 130 minute chart. Short Term Analysis: The overnight and pre market has been in a range, or rather a widening triangle with a pronounced mean. Note: Price is pretty much back to yesterday's close without dropping much, and that is strength. 60 minute chart. Plan of Action for Today: Anticipate breakout of yesterday's high. Look for longs around yesterday's mean. 0930: Price opened right at the mean of pre market, which is usually messy. Waiting for the price to get to one of the extremes. 0953: Price still meandering around the mean, got a quick scalp from the range high, now looking for longs, as price spent more time above the mean, than below. 0957: Longed at 52, target 59.75. 1011: moved stop to 53.25. 1014: Stopped, flat. 1019: Bouncing again from the mean. Price staying above mean for the most part. 15 minute chart. 1031: Small range within a range. Ya think, it's a range bound day, today? 1130: Finally, out of that little range, and tested the bottom or pre market range. Missed a long entry for a quick scalp. 1245: Okay, text book AMT day going on here. Price tested the pre market high, low, and breaching the pre market high. It should breach the previous day high, and continue up. Note: Not posting chart here, as per minimum 15 minute bar rule. I use 5 minute charts for SLA. Since, we've broken out of that little range, I've highlighted on my 15 minute chart, price broke out of that range at 1100 hours, and we're in SLA mode with supply line drawn. It was quickly stopped out. Then we've got a demand line drawn at 1200 hours, and we're still in the trade. 1314: Price attacking previous day high at the moment, but since we're already in SLA long from 5 minute chart, we're staying in. 1350: Demand line fanned on 5 minute chart. 1411: Still in the trade, but notice the waning momentum. 50% level has been drawn for the current swing. Breach below the 50% means, I'm out. 5 minute chart. 1417: 50% level has been breached and I'm out, flat. 15 minute chart. 1426: Will look to reenter, if price holds above 50% of last swing on 5 minute. 1430: SLA short 69 via 5 minute chart. 1433: Stop moved to 70.25. 1440: Stop moved to 68. 1442: Stopped, flat. Will re-enter short, as supply line is still intact. 1444: No, entries. Re-assess. 1450: SLA short re-entry at 66. 1451: Stop at 67.50. 1452: Stopped, flat. 1455: SLA long at 69 at the breach of supply line. Stop at PDH. 1500: Stop moved to 67.50. 1509: Stop moved to 70. 1519: Stop moved to 73. The secondary anchor point for demand line was made available at 1515 bar 5 minute chart. 1531: Price has breached the demand line, and went side ways for just one bar. Still holding. 1535: Moved stop to 74. Unable to fan demand line yet, as no new high has been created yet. 1540: One bar range as Al Brooks would put it. 1540: Stopped out at 74, while posting above pic. Flat, reassessing. 1606: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading is over. The buyers ran out of steam, as evidenced by Bar 24, which was a doji bar, which by the way, is a one bar range, according to Al Brooks. But continuation of uptrend has been further confirmed, today. How far it will go, and will it breach the previous swing high is yet to be seen. Summary: Today was another interesting day, as we had AMT, Range, and SLA, all in one day. The first a couple of hours was quite sluggish, and range bound, but as soon as the range was broken, SLA kicked in kept things in automatic mode. Learned today: I usually do not trade SLA, but today, I was bored, and also, went back and studied SLA per DBs recommendation, and now I'm back with better understanding of SLA. It's pretty nice, really. All my stop outs today were around 5 - 6 ticks, and I was using 5 minute chart for SLA. Thanks DB. Schaefer

Good Morning, everyone. This is going to be an interesting week, as we are near the influential zones of the market, and important econ news though out the week. Long Term Analysis: The Weekly is in pullback to the mean, after creating a new higher high. The previous week was a solid strong bear trend bar, which would require an engulfing bullish bar to reverse the trend, and or a weakening bear doji bar to indicating waning of selling pressure. The Daily ended with an outside bar, which is very hard to read price action. So, better to wait a bit, and see how things resolve itself.Weekly and Daily charts. Short Term Analysis: The overnight, and premarket has been bullish, as it kept creating HHs, and HLs. However, it's rapidly approaching the top of the range, and we'll see how price plays out at the extreme. Note:: The means of last Friday, pre market, and Daily pivot points are generally overlapping and it is a very powerful support/resistance line. Plan of Action for the Day: Watch the upper extreme area. 0932: So far, rejection from the pre market high. 0937: Low 19.25, High 30.25, HL 21. 0940: High 30.25, Low 19.25, LH 30. Pre market high still holding. 0944: Higher has been created 32.50, still unable to close above the pre market high. HIgh 32.50, Low 25.50. LH 27.75. 0950: Break out. 0958: Double top at 42.50. 1000: Double bottom at 39, and break out, next stop 48. 1025: Rejection from 48 area, day high from 03/11. 1040: First lower swing high of the day from 48. 1042: Showing weakness at the extreme edge of this range. Hourly chart. 1045: Three consecutive lower highs on 15 minute chart. 1100: Breaking out of 48 area, next stop unknown. 1130: Up, up and away. Next stop could be 4425. 130 minute chart. 1200: It is lunch time, and we have a bull flag forming. 15 minute chart. 1314: Head & Shoulders pattern on 15 minute chart. 1500: H&S pattern failed, as it normally does, price broke out to the new highs. Switched to SLA, since 1330. Will we get to 4425? 130 minute, and 15 minute chart. 1605: As usual, with the closing of the last 15 minute bar, the trading day is over. There was nothing really to do since 1330, as SLA kept the traders in a straight line, until almost to the end. I will not be posting my 5 minute SLA chart here, as per the thread rules. Summary: Today was an up trend day, however, it was no walk in park kind of trendy day. Price basically went up in two segments. The first segment was already in the making with the range above the means of pre market, and previous day, as well as the daily pivot. The second segment happened after the failed head and shoulder pattern. Learned today: When trading the extremes, if price doesn't want to go back into the range, then only two things left to happen, either breakout/down, or range. Anticipating range would save one from pain most of the days. 130 minute and 15 minute charts. Schaefer

Okay, back in business. Long Term Analysis: The down trend is still intact, and strong on weekly, and daily charts. Yesterday was a small pause bar for the daily, during a strong down trend. Short Term Analysis: We're still in the "box" from yesterday, and pre market. The overnight, and pre market gave away all the gains made from yesterday's RTH session. Plan of Action for the day: Plan to play the range, as it is wide enough, and take the breakout, if the reversal range plays fail. 1210: Price unable to break into the chop zone from 02/11/2015, for now. 1230: Buyers are coming in around 84 - 86 chop zone area from 02/11, and trying to push the price back up. Not sure, how far they will go, but judging by the price action, it shouldn't be that far up, before the sellers push 'em back down. 1335: As anticipated, price continued downward, after retracing to shake the weak hands out. We may see 70s, and 60s, if this keeps up. 1530: Unfortunately, price double bottomed out, and is now in a range. High is 4301.75, and low is 4281.50. 1630: As usual, the trading day, as well as the week is over with the closing of the last 15 minute bar on the chart. It was an interesting day, but not so difficult day to trade, as the extremes were already in place, even before the market opened for RTH. Price retested the pre market low, and took off to test the previous day high, when it was rejected, it tested the previous day's low. It tested the waters in the chop zone created on 02/11, but the buyers fiercely defended the 81 - 83 area, and bounced all the way back up to the mean of the day. So all in all, it was a picture perfect day for AMT traders. Summary: Things learned this week: - Thanks to DB, finally learned how to incorporate the Hourly chart into the overall big picture. Yes, I had Daily, and Hourly charts up on my screen for years, but did not incorporate well into presenting me with the bigger picture. I was focusing too much on the pre market, and previous days data only. - The proper use of the Hourly chart allows me to swing trade, as well as, day trade with solid direction due to the understanding of the bigger picture. - Learned to have better faith in AMT. Have a nice weekend. Schaefer