piejackr

Hi Db, Is there any point at which one should expand an existing long term trend channel to encompass multiple tests of its bounds - especially the upper? My understanding is that the point of the trend channel is not to always be adjusting it to fit the bars perfectly, but am struggling somewhat with determining at what point, if any, an existing channel becomes too conservative. Is it simply a matter of one's own comfort with the number of cautionary indicators perceived from the channel? Should an expansion only be considered if there is a change in the angle of ascent which might necessitate an entirely new trend channel to be established? Thank you in advance. Doing this in real time is always a problem, but the "real time" we're talking about here is months, not days, so as long as one has the general direction right, he's okay. When the bottoming process has ended and the market begins trending again, the initial trend isn't going to last long because the excitement can't be sustained. The trend will then settle into something that can last awhile. You can see here that the most stable channel is the red one (the colors themselves don't mean anything). But price then hugs the UL and never even returns to the median, eventually making it clear that it's taking a new direction. Is it necessary to pick up on this immediately? No, as long as one doesn't try to trade against the general direction. There will be plenty of opportunities for counter-trend trades when price has settled into a predictable channel, as this one did almost two years ago.