Gamera

20th skipped due to it being a holiday.

Gamera.

The chart above shows what happens when I get attached to an idea, after getting out of the short I was looking for a long, I had made myself unavailable to a short re-entry when price broke down again. Went through it and realise I have gotten a little wrapped up on what I think and feel, the market will do what it does whether I am there or not, I need to remember that and focus on what price is doing and where it is doing it. EDIT: I completed the above day prior to reading the final note.

As I pointed out in the chart above I have started to make mistakes, I have revisited my journal and reread it to help get back on track and also gone through appendix F as I think I am over reacting in certain areas, i.e spandex tight DL or SL for instance. Gamera.

After the second trade I felt a little lost, I considered a long on the double bottom but, with 2 failed trades I felt it best to watch. Not the best start to the test, PA always seems to be a whole lot messier around the mean of any range. Gamera.

After the third trade price started ranging, any breakout to the downside had a lot of hurdles to overcome before it could get anywhere so I decided to sit out. Gamera.

To start off with the market is in two states, it is either trending or ranging and this knowledge is important as the plan depends on being able to identify which is which, what is happening and how to take advantage of it. And yes, there are ranges with in trends and trends within ranges, but, the focus prior to placing any trades is to identify what the most immediate state of the market is. Preparation. As part of the preparation, one needs to have a general idea of what is happening, the weekly and daily might give a bias to price direction, what I mean by that is, if for example price has reached the upper extreme of the weekly/daily channel its most likely move is away from that extreme to the mean and onwards to the opposing extreme. If the higher time frames are pointing down it would come as no surprise if a breakout to the upside of a 1 minute range fails to get anywhere and results in a losing trade. Even with this knowledge one has decide their own risk tolerance and understanding of the PA. Context. The little 1 minute range that a trader is trading might be a part of a larger range, when price breaks out and trends, context can give one a heads up as to where that trend could be reversed, larger swing points can impede progress as they mark a point that price could not get beyond, a point where one behaviour ended and another took over, just because price gets back there does not mean the reason has gone away, but, again the focus is the behaviour at that level. The basics. The barebones of the plan is to start off with finding the most immediate range, locating the extremes of said range and waiting for price to get to those extremes. Once there, there are two possibilities, if price reverses at the extremes short the upper limit and buy the lower limit (ranges <10 points will be left for breakouts). If however price breaks out, it shall be traded as a breakout into a trend. Management. The theory with ranges goes that once it has tagged one extreme it will most likely head to the other, with that in mind I will keep an eye on respective swing points and the mean, an exit is not based solely on price reaching the opposing extreme it is more on the behaviour. If price breaks out one is already positioned for it so pay attention to what price does there. With a breakout, do not panic over a retrace after the BO, its normal, once the continuation is confirmed track it with a DL/SL. This is where context/(AMT) can give a target and the SLA manages the trade, the line will get broken occasionally but some breaks mean more than others. I collected stats on most likely outcomes with a note of discretion that explains my thinking, last post. It is okay to scratch a trade that is not doing what is expected, and if what is happening makes no sense sit out and take notes. This is barebones and basic, after all it is just a test. I will look to cover 100-200 trades, once this task is completed the next step will be replay untested days then move to sim, I have been taking my time with this process as I all to often rush back in then get disappointed when the results fail to follow. Now that I have waffled for 3 posts I think I can start the actual testing.

Two strategies both of which will share the same entries, the management will differ slightly between the two. 1 Runner. This strategy is set up as a safer strategy that might appeal more to a fearful trader (I have no idea how I will behave should I go live) The strategy is geared up to locking in profit early on half the position which may give one the freedom to let the other half work out a little and endure those pull backs that are to be expected in any move one might expect to see. The numbers below give an idea as to how far a move can go prior to making a more substantial pull back. The first lot in the runner strategy will come off at the relevant number. The second lot will be managed using the trend break continuation number. Trend break continuations: 3 points. I expect a rally or drop to break its stride as it progresses, 3 points is the average the line can be pushed with the trend remaining intact. The breaking of the stride by more than 3 points does not signify a change of trend, it is only more likely that a change will happen. Watch how price interacts with the swing points that constitute the break. Trend break reversal entry leg: 7 points. Price has now broken stride and has retraced forming a lower high or higher low, one takes the trade per entry criteria, how far can a trader expect price to move before it comes back on the entry. I plan on entering trades with 2 lots and taking the first off on the entry leg and managing the other, However I will be tracking the alternative of this versus an all in all out approach. A traders entry is irrelevant the measurement is from swing point to swing point, depending in how one enters the trade the first contract might be taken off after 3 or 4 points or less. Even though a 7 point move might be expected it does not mean that it will, watch how price interacts with the previous swing points, price may range. Range poke: 1.5 points. How far can a range or swing point be pushed but hold, 1.5 points, beyond that and one moves into the territory of breakouts and continuations, an order to trade breakouts could be left 7-8 ticks beyond the range extremes to catch a breakout. Very important to pay attention to what happens next, price can move beyond 2 points then stall and hang around sometimes for hours, however, when there is intent behind the move it does not. If price gets to an extreme the move away is often decisive, if it is not, one would have to question their participation in the trade. Breakout entry leg post retrace: 11.5 points. Had a harder time defining the MFE to a breakout, a lot of the breakouts would often BO by 1,2 or 3 points before making a retrace of some kind (rarely noticeable on a 5 minute chart) but seeing as entries would boil down to a 1 minute chart I felt I had to include the rets as part of the breakout. It seems a large number but I guess it is a reflection of traders intent to move on and find value. AIAO. This strategy is more about maximising gains from trending days, there will be times one has to clench their teeth and endure the pull backs that are inevitable which may pose a challenge in its own right, it is more reliant on the AMT aspect and depends more on swing points being broken or holding for exits. My thoughts have evolved as I have gotten more into this, when I started I would exit on the first line break and wait for a reversal that would never come as price continued on without me, this could happen multiple times, and each time I would be waiting for a reversal. Eventually price would get to a level that meant something to enough traders that price would be turned back, but in the meantime I would only have a caught a small chunk of the move, how far can stride be pushed but leave the trend intact? Stride is less relevant, it can be broken multiple times throughout the trend what do I expect to see from a trend? If it is still doing that what I expect and has not reached a point of interest why exit. I will trade ranges via reversals at the extreme but the ranges must be at least 10 points wide, if they are not one will have to sit tight and wait for a breakout trade. Whilst I will trade reversals and breakouts, there are other tactical sets that will need to be considered as the day unfolds, these will include DT, DB, hinges, dogs etc. When it comes to stops, I will be using danger points (DB PDF) but also looking at behaviour, is price doing what I expect it to do? I am forgetting something but I am sure it will get covered at some point soon. I will try and simplify my plan a little better later on. Gamera.

After an eventful summer it is time to knuckle down and start testing the plan that I have been working with for the last few months. I had started this process in another place but circumstances outside of my control had my thoughts elsewhere. The purpose of the journal is to track how the plan I will be trading stacks up through back testing to forward testing and eventually on to sim trading, should the results be consistent throughout each phase I will be able to move into live trading with confidence that I have a thoroughly tested and consistently profitable plan. The backbone of my plan is the SLA/AMT so charts that are posted should look familiar, I will try to briefly explain reasoning for decisions on chart as I have a tendency to waffle. I will be testing 2 strategies side by side (might get a little confusing at times) one is a safer strategy but a little restricting when it comes to maximising gains (2 lot entry with one off early to lock in gains) the other is a little more testing (2 in 2 out AIAO) but allows one to hold on to a trend to its conclusion thus maximising gains. I will go in to more detail in the next post, regarding entry, management and exit rules along with a brief explanation of stats that were collected whilst studying certain price action behaviours. I'm still learning so any input or questions welcome. Gamera.

I was a little surprised to see the extent of the drop yesterday and have noticed that continue into the open today. Price has now dropped out of the daily TR, could this be considered an oversold condition like last time? or could this with the situation elsewhere be a tipping point? Gamera. It's not possible to know whether it's oversold or not except in hindsight. The more immediate concern is whether or not the short was taken and, if so, when and how? If it wasn't, why not? If a long is to be taken, where? How?

I feel a little rusty with limited practice over the last month "If you don't use it you lose it" springs to mind. Similar thoughts to Lajax, Daily is making a series of LL and LH, but, Price is unable to sustain a move below the MP of the up move at 4510 or the century mark at 4500. Price did make a severe move below this level but it was rejected strongly, whilst the trend is down, the rejection of the move lower indicates strength. Hourly chart shows support at 4512 has been broken, price did not get far before the drop was stopped at 4500. 15min - 5min The drop flattened out just above 4500 and price began to range, the upper extreme drops slightly but support holds on this timeframe just above 4500. 1min chart shows a DB at support then a test of R at 07.5 followed by a BO, price rets at 4510. Going into the open I would be looking at an immediate range of 4500 - 4512 it is touch and go as far as a range play via reversals is concerned, but given the MP of the large move at 4510 and the daily hinge, range plays might be messy. Breakout trades initiated beyond the extremes give targets on the upside starting at 28 (15min - 5min) and 55 +/- beyond that, on the downside 4437 would be the first port of call though price might choke a little at 94 as this is the MP of the most recent low - high. 4437 roughly acted as resistance in the early part of July so it was not a huge surprise to see where price was halted in the drop a couple of days ago. Hinge posted might not mean much as it is not filled in, but given where the possible apex lies I thought it interesting. Gamera

I was keeping an eye on the the market as we were hovering just above a range prior to the open and thought it was pertinent to what I am currently looking at. I was curious about the DT / TDTDB 20 minutes prior to open and I thought at the time if I was to get involved that would be a short, but, does the proximity of the range top which has acted as resistance for the majority of the night throw this out. As your chart shows, just prior to open price was below this level (range top) and at open we saw a push up putting in a quick H,L,LH which would have put an entry around 4433 +/-. At the end of the day there is only a few points of difference, is this a price risk/information risk situation? Gamera. A double top suggests a short, not the opposite. The premkt and postmkt charts should be used together, in sequence. I'm not sure I follow. The three premkt charts I posted this morning and the two I posted postmkt are a sequence. I might wonder into the weeds here a little. Premarket: Daily: In the process or has created a lower high/ weak DT, LOLR down? Hourly: Indicates price is dropping off and has pushed into an earlier range where it is hanging around in the upper half. 15min: Price is in a range 27-34, price had tried to escape the range but was rejected, this rejection pushed back into range and beyond the LL where it was also rejected. I understand what a DT suggests, what I meant was, does one take that DT (09:11) as a short where there is a possible risk of little follow through (Range top - support) or should one wait for more information by observing how price interacts with the range top? this interaction would have triggered a short 3 minutes after open. Feel free to move this out of here and into ask DB if you feel it is more relevant there. Whether you take the short before the open or after is up to you. Depends in part on how well you can tolerate potential opening volatility. What is more important here is that there should be no consideration of a long at all. Now I am following, as I am studying these things I wondered what your take on the PA was leading into the open. I'm sitting on the sidelines for the time being but once my mental short was taken off the DT I switched to a 15 min sat tight and saw little reason to get out until price hit 4342, even there I wondered if price being closer to the daily mean than its most recent highs might pull on price overnight or into the next session. As for tolerance, I think I am becoming increasingly tolerant to opening whipsaws as long as they are within parameters/limits. As for longs, 15 min, never a consideration, but as a disclaimer I did not have skin in the game so it might have been a different story. Downtrend, double top, failure to hold above the top of the range, so it was just a matter of waiting for the open volatility to provide an opportunity, which turned out to be the retracement marked. But there was no reason to exit until the close. In terms of a lower time frame <5min there is a possible sla long down there depending on how tight their lines were and where they started them from, but, sticking with the 15 min, other than a 3 tick push on the last swing high there was no exit and with the draw of the daily mean 40 points lower and the fact that by now a trade is worth 90-100 points, I would hope that I would not sweat 3 ticks. I have a long way to go.

Was not sure where exactly this post belongs so I fired it in here, DB feel free to relocate if it is more relevant in another thread. Whilst I am back on terra firma, I have had a lot to think about over the last 3 weeks and most of that is to do with how I tackle ranges. As I alluded to in another post my plan as it stands is heavy on the SLA and weak on the AMT, the observations I made starting 5 weeks ago pointed out a few weaknesses that need to be addressed. I have had a number of ideas and by going through my own charts I believe I can answer most of the following questions. Can I identify a range? Yes, whilst at times I can be a little slow on the uptake, I can identify ranging behaviour. (chart 1) Do I know how to trade a range? Yes, wait at the extremes and ride the PA back to the opposite extreme. Do I know what behaviour I will look for at the extremes? Yes, I have contemplated 4 possibilities for entry. 1: Enter because price hits extreme. 2: Enter because price starts to behave like it has found the extreme (e.g starts to ret at or near extreme) 3: Enter off a lower high (UL) or higher low (LL) 4: Enter when reversal is confirmed. Whilst I could backtest all of the above, observations and experience have taught me some things so far. 1. Taking a trade just because price is at an extreme is iffy. In the time it takes price to reach an extreme the market may have decided that value belongs somewhere else, price might break out, or it might not but if it does I do not want to be on the wrong side of what could be a fast moving market, and if I am trading a range I may already be positioned to take advantage of a breakout so why would I want to limit myself, I can accept giving up a couple of points in order to be available for a range becoming a trend. OTOH 3 and 4 might not happen until price has moved all the way back to the mean or even the opposing extreme. And from my perspective I don't want to take on trades where the potential risk is greater than the potential reward. That leaves me with 2, enter when the behaviour shows signs of changing no confirmation necessary. Entry mechanism would be a trailing entry that could follow price up once price gets to within X points (backtest) of limit. Stops would be at most recent swing point or breach of range (backtest) and if breach does slightly surpass limits an entry could be made just off the extreme as to avoid being triggered on a BO retest (backtest) that might bleed through the limit a little. Do I know how I will manage a trade? this may require a degree of finesse that I lack at the minute, should I be target or bust, should I look for tells e.g DT and DBs that might indicate traders are unwilling to take price further, do I observe how price reacts to the mean? can it get there, what does it do, does it move through it without effort or whipsaw. That brings me onto trade 2 on the chart below it was a late entry as I waited for an HL to form, same as trade 1, price broke above 50% ret'd, failed to push higher then broke down through the 50% and previous swing low triggering an exit. I've thought about this one a lot and I am still not sure about it..... backtest. (chart 2) This is pretty much all covered in the PDF so it should not take long to reaffirm my conclusions but I feel I have a process to go through before I go live again. Gamera. Followed dear DB hint for pasting charts onto post but it has not worked as I would have liked. There are several people on ET who are seriously trying to learn this. My posts to their threads may be helpful. I've been following along and their threads and your posts are incredibly helpful, I seem to have certain ideas that occupy my thoughts, the answer (as if by magic) always seems to pop up when I think about the question. Thanks again.

Very much interested in opportunities that go beyond NY open to NY close, I tend to lean towards intraday trading so I can sleep easy at night, but, I would like to take on interday movements as it is hard to ignore what is on offer when one looks at the bigger picture. Gamera. There's no special technique to it. One just has to hold the trade. This works best when trading off the upper or lower limit, so it's not for the action junkie. But if one can hold on for a hundred points or more, why not? Stops are of course necessary.

I'm sorry to see the time format get changed but I see how the change might actually benefit most of those (if not everyone including myself) who are unable to give the market their undivided attention throughout the day. Whilst I was trading profitably in the last quarter I was missing out on the best of what was available, my plan was too heavily dependent on SLA even within ranges, I realised during my last trip away that although I was profitable I was missing too much, late entries and early exits amongst the many complaints. My big push 3-4 weeks ago when I was available to trade "full time" for the duration of my home time, was to approach AMT as AMT and SLA as SLA when PA dictated one or the other. And even though I was only able to participate for 2 weeks I found the observation/trade hugely beneficial as it pointed out, to me at least, that I had huge weaknesses related to the AMT aspect of my plan mostly surrounding entry criteria. In hindsight the ranging market was a very good lesson in showing me my weaknesses. I've spent my downtime looking over all the charts that have been posted by all those involved and poured over my own in my journal to define what exactly in terms of behaviour I need to be looking for and now have a much clearer idea of how to proceed. I might be putting the cart before the horse but I have reassessed my plan in order to test out the criteria, it will have to wait until I get back to dry land though. As I have the time and I believe the focus/concentration I will likely continue using the shorter TF but as always I will keep my eyes on the higher TF. And yet again, thanks for you continued efforts both here and on ET. Gamera. Good to hear from you. And when logging observations, price behavior is a continuous stream. And you're free to focus on whatever bar interval you like for trading. But when it comes to charts, the shorter intervals screw just about everyone up, largely because those who are using them aren't in sync with them. If one is physically unable to track whatever he's trading, then he has no business trading it. If the point of the continuity of price has not been made, it is most likely because those who don't get it just haven't studied enough, and there's nothing I can do about that. But I don't help struggling traders by enabling their less-than-helpful habits.

Having issues with my platform so no charts in advance this time around. 09:39 I am going to sound a little lost, I am using another charting package that has slightly different values. 09:40 Hopefully the behaviour will be clear enough to keep track of it. 09:40 PM range 57-60. Price broke to the upside then retested PM lows before breaking out again, it got a few points before failing and dropped back out of the range again. 09:44 Price put in a ret back to the PM range then dropped off again, takes out the ONL. 09:46 My range differs slightly, on the hourly, price has hit range lows. 09:47 Ret confirmed, but rejected quick. 09:49 PD afternoon Low on the downside. 09:52 The MP for my range is roughly the MP of the PM range. 09:54 RET, a little questionable as it happened in one bar, price dropped, pushed higher rejected and is now pushing lower. 09:56 Confirmed. 09:56 PM range up next. 09:57 Another ret, pushes into the previous ret so soon. 09:58 Confirmed, back into PM range. 09:58 Seems to be more joining every morning, maybe they want to see the PM charts then make their own decisions, I think there is real value in sticking around and getting involved as best one can. 10:01 Price blew through the PM range and is now heading for the upper extreme. 10:02 Might get a reaction off the opening high. 10:04 Ret almost turning into a rev, which is understandable giving where we are in relation to the opening high. 10:06 DT and rev. 10:07 Might have an intraday range top on the DT. 10:09 Price dropped to the PM low where it found support, it has crept out the top of the PM range, but, this could be a deep ret on the drop. 10:12 Chewing up the PM range and the mean of the larger range. 10:13 Price breaks down, will we get a DB and have a range to play off. 10:17 Could be a ret back to the PM range but it is deep. 10:19 That deep ret has become a rev. 10:21 I wondered about the construction of the 10:14 bar and there was a REV in there on a faster timeframe but that's just for notes, price could not get to extreme when does one decide to cut it. 10:23 Back into the PM range again, on the upside we have the earlier DT to overcome. 10:32 Activity seems to be slowing down now. 10:38 My charts might be quite a bit different at the moment, the hinge I see is very lopsided, but it does point to a compression, just need to fill out a bit more which it looks to be doing as I type. 10:43 Price was unable to push beyond the PM low and instead went higher this high has resulted in a lower high. 10:47 Price is pushing at its most recent series of highs which for me is 62 but for others would be around 60.5. 10:49 This area is also the hinge top that is being tracked. 11:03 Price has struggled at an area of short term resistance and the hinge top and seems to be dropping off into the PM range. 11:07 This most recent low allows the lower part of the hinge to flatten a little making it a bit more symmetrical. 11:21 Price is again pushing out of the hinge but runs into the pm low and gets a bounce back into the hinge. 11:29 It appears we have dropped out of the range, will we get a ret back to lows or pull back to the hinge again. 11:33 We had a Ret that failed to push lower and now it becomes a rev, which as I type is struggling on the PM low. 11:35 Guess not. 11:43 After a little hassle price makes its way back to PM range top. 11:50 Price was clinging on to the apex of the hinge and the PM high but could push no further to the upside. 11:59 Activity has dropped off and price seems to be meandering through the PM range. 12:13 Not much to do until this resolves itself. 12:26 If hinge low was altered to take in the low at 11:30 price would now be ranging on the mean of this level. 12:53 Price drops out of the hinge and the PM range, will it ret away or pull back up like it has on the last couple of breaks. 13:01 I've attached an hourly chart that shows what I was looking at in regards to the 09:46 reference, also a 1 min covering this hinge and PM range. 13:15 Price now seems to be making a concerted effort to move away from the hinge. 13.22 Might get a reaction off the 10:14 low, still looking towards a DB off the morning low at the range bottom. 13:33 2 points off range bottom 3 points off a DB. 13:36 Range low tagged will be watching for a ret to go lower or a rev to go higher. 13:37 A little push lower to a possible DB. 13:38 Small ret underway. 13:38 Watching the right tick. 13:39 Had a rev on a shorter TF. 13:41 Still hanging under the range..... Price breaks lower but comes back. 13:42 Price is back in range, will have to see if this DB follows through and price moves further into the range. 13:48 Whilst we are back in the range price is sluggish to the upside, maybe my expectations are a little high. 13:52 To the upside there is going to be the PM range and hinge to overcome. 13:54 Ret, might be going for the range lows. 13:58 Messy ret at risk of becoming a reversal, mini hinge in there just now. 14:01 Struggling to confirm. 14:02 Confirmed. 14:04 Another ret that drops onto the last ret. 14:07 Ret or rev? 14:10 Rev it is, push back to lows. 14:12 If price breaks down you have yesterdays afternoon low and morning low below that as potential areas of interest. 14:15 BO to the downside will supply follow through, this ret will find out. 14:19 Everyone is gone, hmmmm. 14:20 Confirmed, but rejected quick. 14:21 Possible Dog. 14:23 Struggling to drop lower, its trying but keeps getting bounced back. 14:27 We appear to be stuck at the minute. 14:31 A little nudge lower, not following through though. 14:39 despite making a little push lower there was no follow through and price had a little run up, as I type price as again heading lower with a bit more energy this time. 14:40 Price gets to yesterdays afternoon low and puts in a ret. 14:41 Ret confirmed. 14:45 Another ret. 14:46 confirmed but rejected quick, seems to be a pattern emerging with rets being confirmed and rejected so quick. 14:52 Ret became a rev. 15:04 Price seems a little aimless at the minute. 15:14 A little range or hinge at the lows. 15:22 Price breaks to the upside. 15:37 Price has returned to the hinge, will it do anything before the week is over. 15:40 Now price break to the downside, there is multiday support in the low 30's to overcome. 15:50 That is pretty much an end to the day, week and rota for me, whilst its not necessarily been the best 3 weeks to be trading it has been the most constructive and I have gotten a lot out of the discussions. There are a few things that come to mind in terms of lessons over the last 3 weeks. 1. If price gets to a level you are watching and behaves in a certain way you understand take the trade, no ifs no buts, you do not know what will happen next the rest is speculation. The winners you fail to take are as painful as the losers you make. 2. Don't sweat the small stuff plan the trade, trade the plan. 3 Prep is as important as taking the trades, understand what is going on around you. More specifically today. Any lines one has should be treated as a guide, price being at support is not as important as price behaving like it is at support. Todays low put in a ret then confirmed into my range low, an order could have been trailed in tight behind to catch a rally, this might require testicular fortitude to take it on, or the ret confirmed and instantly rejects turning into a dog, once the ret high gets taken out an entry could be taken there, or you could wait for a further ret which comes a few minutes later, the problem is you get further and further away from your ideal entry and closer to the mean where price could chew you up. Price rallied again to the opening high, put in a ret and again rejected right into a DT, another dog, whilst there were alot of rets throughout the day that confirmed and failed, the ones that ended up doing anything tended to be at points of interest. To cut a long story short, Behaviour + Context = Opportunity. I'm going to think about this some more, just thought I would get it out whilst its still fresh. Take it easy Gamera.

A few things going on from the ON and the previous days action. 09:26 Also as a note, price is just clinging onto the range that was discussed yesterday. 09:31 Price opens and tests the mid point of yesterdays high low. 09:34 Price pushing the ONL... Breakdown. 09:35 Price pulls back above ONL. 09:37 Price approaching the ONH. 09:40 Could we see a DT off the ONH. 09:41 15 point rally in 4-5 minutes gets halted at the ONH. 09:43 Turns out to be a ret and pushes higher, very quick rejection will we get follow through. 09:44 Ret confirm instant failure, is this looking like a tdtdb? 09:46 Price dropping off. 09:47 Price is putting in a ret, which is confirmed. 09:48 The MP of this rally is 42. 09:50 Price seems to have found a little support and is rallying. 09:52 Price pushes lower then finds itself stopped around 41.5. 09:55 Price trying to push on 38. 09:58 Price made a ret on 38 confirms and pushes on the daily lows. 10:00 Yesterdays low up next at 29-30 to the downside. 10:02 After hitting 31 price is putting in a ret, can it push on and tag PDL. 10:05 No follow through to the downside yet. 10:07 This could be a retrace back to the BO. 10:15 Interesting to see if we reject the PM low or if we move back into the PM range. 10:16 Back in range, will it hold though and can it make it back to 49. 10:18 We got choked up on 42 on the way down it might happen again on the way up. 10:24 42 might be important as it has struggled from both sides. 10:28 Price breaks higher. 10:32 Price unable to maintain above 42 thus far. 10:35 After a false start price BO from 42, 49 up next. 10:39 Tagged 49. 10:41 Price seems to be hanging around. 10:45 And we break higher. 10:53 We got a ret back to 49 but this seems to be failing as it pushes towards previous swing high, might get a rev back into the range. 11:04 Was distracted, missed the hinge. 11:13 Price still moving upwards, previous days range and the top of that range discussed last night might coincide with each other. 11:44 Price struggling to make it to 58, might have a little range 52-58. 11:54 DT, no signs of a drop off yet. 11:55 61 up next, will be interesting to see what happens here if we get there. 12:09 The high low today has a mean at 45, which is the same mean as PDH-L seeing as we have a higher low and a lower high we might be developing a large hinge with 45 as the apex. 12:20 Price got as far as 59 and seems to have dropped off back to the mean. 12:26 Got quite a rejection of the MP. 12:38 If price fails to push below the MP is it a sign that price could be headed higher? will have to see how it reacts to the highs. 12:47 Spiked to 61 is this a DT from yesterday? 12:58 Despite making a DT price is still hanging around the high. could we move higher still? 13:20 Price now drops off from the DT, 45 up next. 13:35 Price made a drop off that got halted at 52 which is the MP of the most recent rally from the test of the larger MP at 45. 13:46 Price seems indecisive, cant push higher cant push lower. 13:58 Might have a hinge developing. 14:06 Price breaks to the downside. 14:08 Ret, will it come back to apex. 14:11 Confirmed. How long is it going to take you to get back up to speed after three weeks? 14:39 I'll be coming off day shift next time, so 2-3 days by the time I have caught up with everything and everyone, This time coming off nights has been harder than most for some reason. 14:41 Price found a top at 61 which was the previous days high and the upper extreme of the our lesson on ranges yesterday, it has dropped, and as if by coincidence the drop is arrested at the range low. 14:46 Now its a case of waiting to see if this range holds, or, will price head to morning lows. 14:52 I've attached a chart, if a short had been taken a stop just above the high would have been safe, although the PA might have been testing, the reaction to the mean might have resulted in a decision being made, it all depends on tolerances I guess. 14:57 There was also a quick fire rev down there that could have been taken as a get out or long entry once price came back to the range. 15:00 Price got to a point -/+ of the mean and has dropped off the the lower part of the this range I am looking at. 45 was the MP that was up for grabs earlier but I wonder if the longer multiday range has taken priority. 15:05 Pushing on that extreme now. 15:07 Seem to be getting a rally off of it. 15:09 Just noticed the low at 14:35 was right on the opening 30 minute high low MP. 15:11 Might have been helpful if I knew that in advance but I deleted my lines as the chart was getting cluttered, still even without the lines I should have been paying attention. 15:13 Spike to the mean, will we pass or will we fail? 15:15 A little choke on the mean. 15:16 Ret. 15:18 Confirmed 61.5 on the upside. 15:19 The apex of that hinge might also be a consideration at 58. 15:21 Another ret. 15:23 Confirmed. 15:23 Rejects very quick though possible dog. 15:24 Woof. 15:25 Has to over come the mean on the downside. 15:26 The confirmation ran right into the hinge apex +/- a tick 15:27 Price struggling on the mean, might still head up yet. 15:29 The ret failed initially, the rev failed on the range mean and now we find price pushing higher again. 15:30 Ret. 15:33 Pretty deep ret. 15:35 Risk of this turning into a rev. 15:37 Almost a rev if it turns down it will have to get past 52.5 on the downside. 15:41 Almost a confirmation of a very ugly ret,... confirmed. 15:42 Still looking at 61.5 price is struggling now, another ret just as it pushes higher. 15:43 Confirmed. 15:44 I'm not saying it again. 15:46 Price halted a point shy of the mark. 15:50 61.5 15:51 62.5 high so far and price rejects, will it move away or hang around like it did last time? 15:53 This is where management decisions get made, exit because price hits the extreme or set some kind of marker once it hits that extreme like a previous swing low, in this case 57.5 you give up a few points but make yourself available to an overbought condition, and who knows how much further that can go. 15:56 Price is out of range SLA comes in now. 15:57 Retest of daily high. if price re enters the range that would give one a decision to make. 15:59 Ret becomes a rev and we re-enter the range going into the close. 16:01 The latter part of the day was very interesting to watch play out, I got a little lost at times in the first half but found my bearings after lunch. Hope everyone had a good day. Gamera.

Thanks for sticking around and explaining things from your point of view today, I was wondering about the 59 level you pointed out. I assumed it was worked out when the ONH was broken then acted as support, if this was correct PM range low (or opening low) to ONH mean would result in a 59 target, but I noticed on ET that this was revised upwards later on which made me think there was something other than range expansion at play. My daily has been slightly overbought for the last couple of days but I went over it and tweaked it slightly for accuracy and the result dropped it in right above 60, is this the reason behind the call, I'm just curious as we definitely got a reaction off that level you shouted out hours before it happened. Thanks again. Gamera. If it were Friday, I'd give you homework. But since it's only Wednesday . . . The lateral "support" and "resistance" suggested by PDHs and PDLs and ONHs and ONLs are useful largely because even those who trade daily charts can see them. Even those who don't follow the markets at all know about them because they're reported even in the Podunk daily paper. So of course they matter. How could they not? But if you understand AMT, there's a whole 'nother layer that enables you to amaze your friends. Plot an hourly chart of the last week's prices. Include at least the 20th and preferably the 19th. Look at the daily highs. What do you see? Each daily high is higher than the last. Now draw a line across them. Chart attached. I think I see it, if it is right timokrates, I would draw in my lower line slightly differently to take in those 3 or 4 lows whilst the 24th low is left out as it is oversold in my eyes (might be wrong) but this would fit in with it being oversold under 42 as DB mentioned. I was playing around with the diagonals and thought nah cant be that. The upper diagonal would have been shifted off the 23rd high on the 24th, the first break in the morning is overbought the afternoon HH is more or less in line and as price reacts again as if it has found an extreme I would have considered shifting it I think. You guys are getting ahead of yourselves, and if this isn't done deliberately, you'll fuck yourselves up. Remember these? If I use the high of the 20th to the high on the 23 it projects forward to 57 today and with the low line matched to the 23rd low it gives a target for any drop at 39, whilst the 24th high adjusted ties in with the levels we saw today should I be keeping the originals in place, am I being to precise? I think I am being pedantic and trying to get things to fit in with the commentary. The proper lines if they are right fit pretty well too. Bear with me. You have to get the lines started correctly, as you have done. How price relates to those lines thereafter will tell you whether the instrument is overbought or oversold. Shifting the lines defeats the purpose of drawing them in the first place. Now. Draw your median equidistant between the upper and lower limits you've drawn. Line drawn. OK. That's the "money line", the median. The upper and lower limits are not all that critical. They can be slightly off away from the median or toward the median. What matters is the median, since that represents the "value area". And if you can confirm it with a lateral line, as we can here, either along 49 or 50, then you know approximately how far from the median price can travel either way, as it did today with 60 and 40. If it overshoots, again as it did today when it dropped to 30, so much the better, but at least you have some idea of what to expect. And that is pretty much all there is to it. You may want to reread the AMT section of the pdf. It may make more sense now. Now you can amaze your friends. Thanks for clearing that up, I had no idea there was a channel there so it came as news to me when you called out the highs, guess I have gotten to focused on what is right in front of me that I don't see the bigger picture. I have some reading to do. I keep saying it but thanks again. Gamera

Still inside yesterdays high low range but over the last couple of hours we seem to have found support on the mean which is also the lower part of the PM range with a top at around 45, there is also an ONH at 49. 09:34 Price breaks down from the PM range and below the previous days hi-lo mean. 09:35 Ret underway. 09:36 Price re-enters PM range. 09:36 PM range + breakdown = ONH. 09:39 Price choking on PM mean. 09:41 Price was unable to move all the way to upper extreme of pm range and now it drops out again. 09:43 Could change that possible ONH thought if it pushes past here. 09:44 Two attempts to push lower have so far failed with the second one creating a HL, now back in range. 09:46 Could be creating a hinge with the LH and HL. 09:50 Price looks to have busted the hinge but this is still a lower high than the starting high. 09:53 Price makes another stab at the lows and is so far being rejected, might be early to say it but range is looking like 38-45 with PM low as the MP. 10:01 BO to the upside with ret underway. 10:04 Fourtiwinks, I might be misreading your chart example so I attached mine which might explain better than I can. 10:06 Price drops back into PM range, this push higher is almost equidistant from the mean as the drop was to the downside. Range expansion, 48 again - 38. 10:09 Where did price get stopped on this most recent drop. 10:09 We appear to be testing the ONH. 10:13 Price seems to be respecting the ONH but it is not making much of a drop off. 10:18 DT at possible range top. 10:18 Now we seem to be dropping off, might get a choke as we pass into the PM range. 10:23 We seem to be making a deep ret that is struggling to confirm by pushing past the PM range top. 10:26 Ret now a rev, looks like we could go back for a test of the highs, note: mulitple overlapping bars show indecision. 10:30 Back into PM range. 10:32 Price broke the PM mean but failed to get all the way to lower extreme and takes off to 48 range top. 10:34 Price seems to be rejecting the move to the upper extreme. 10:43 Price pushes higher. 10:45 Looking like a BO. 10:45 PDH at 55.75 10:53 Not acting like a BO yet. 11:00 Price broke higher but rejected immediately. DOG? 11:03 Price approaching expanded range, resistance becomes support. 11:11 Back into range. 11:13 And back out again. 11:17 This latest rally up has so far ended in another LH, is there a lack of intent from demand to push higher, wait and see. 11:21 Whilst we have reached a DT I get the feeling price has to check out PDH before it will do anything else. This feeling is not a trading decision. 11:31 Price does indeed break higher and is putting in a ret. As far as rets go, you may want to come up with some criteria for yourself regarding validation/invalidation 11:47 I might be wrong, I'll use the 11:28 up bar onwards and break it down, 11:28 bar on my chart closes on its high, 11:29 goes a little higher and closes on its low, the start of a possible ret, the next bar pushes a little lower and a little higher but fails to break previous bar high, 11:31 bar is an inside bar, the next bar equals 11:30 bar high but fails to go any higher and drops lower than said bar, this is a small rev. it fails to break the previous swing low and rallies again, if price had gone higher I would have called that a ret. Dont know if that was a clear definition or not. RET Validate, movement+pullback + continuation beyond the pull back origin. RET Invalidate, Movement+pullback + inability to move beyond PB origin, also add continuation beyond PB swing point, in which case it becomes a rev. Clear as mud. 12:00 Price got to within a tick of PDH and seems to be dropping off. 12:30 we seem to be drifting lower now. 12:34 Price has approached ONH area. 12:50 Price has tagged PDH. 12:52 Price pushes higher still but seems to be rejecting. You're about due to go back, aren't you? Yeah back to the "office" this Monday coming, I'm getting the impression everything imaginable will happen starting that same day. You'll be missed. You're doing very well. Thanks, it helps when there are others involved and a few have been doing so which is good to see and hopefully people are getting something out of it. I will be looking in now and again but I cant trade or watch charts, I just hope everyone keeps it up as it could really benefit some of those that get stuck in. As you said in another post "pedal to the metal" 13:26 Price has been churning sideways for the last 30 minutes between its high and most recent swing low 13:09. Not much to do until demand or supply takes the reins. 13:31 Price broke higher but has quickly come back into this range. 13:32 Again the question has to be asked, if this is a BO is it behaving as such. 13:34 Price making another push higher. 13:36 Stop go stop go from a behaviour standpoint price seems hesitant, but we have been on an slow upward grind for a while now so it might continue upwards like this. 13:39 Just as a note, I have not seen any real hype on the grind, its slow and methodical, actually boring might be a better description there is nothing telling me yet that this is it for the move on the upside. We are overbought on the daily so who knows, we could drop off any minute, but, I don't think demand has been exhausted yet. 14:00 Price has been slowly dropping off from its 13:34 high at 61. 14:16 Price is testing an area that was resistance at 11:51, then support at 13:09 there is no exact price but 54 takes both these swing points in. 14:23 Price pushes lower. 14:25 Ret back to possible resistance. 14:33 Whilst the ret was confirmed price failed to make much of a follow through to the downside, it then went back for another swing at resistance and now seems to be dropping off. 14:34 Price now interacting with ONH. 14:37 After a brief ret around the ONH price has dropped to the PM range top. 14:41 Dropped through PM range and testing lows. 14:42 Possible DB a no go as price blows through it. 14:43 Climactic drop with possible secondary reaction. 14:44 Or breakdown of PM range with retrace. 14:59 Price broke lower and came back to the PM low, though it is trying price is struggling to move higher at this point. 15:05 Price breaks lower. 15:33 Wrapping it up for the night. Gamera.

Looks like we might open inside yesterdays range. 09:33 Price breaks below the PM low and MP of the rally going into yesterdays close. 09:36 Price is pushing on previous days low. 09:39 Price dropped close to yesterdays afternoon low put in a ret that was confirmed but has failed to follow through so far. 09:42 40 is a PM DB and MP of yesterdays afternoon rally, might choke if price gets there. 09:50 Price is putting in a ret on the MP. 09:51 Confirmed. 09:52 Previous days range top is in the 43-44 area. 09:53 Price dropping off, and back below that 50% area, watching for a DT at lows. 10:01 Possible breakdown unde rway, watch for a possible ret. 10:02 The BO failed to follow through and price came back in to the range. 10:08 Price tagged the opening low which is the range low and has failed to break lower, this also created a HL, the previous swing high at 41 may prove to be tricky. 10:11 Price might make a range top on this area in the short term. 10:17 LH and making our way back to the lower extreme. 10:28 Price pushed higher, next level on the upside is previous days high. 10:37 Price broke above the 50% area and has retraced back to it where it now seems to be acting as support. 10:48 Upper extreme of range is around 49, if we take in the the failed breakdown as a movement from the mean it puts the top around 54. 10:55 Price is struggling at 45 which was fridays PDH and yesterday range top. 10:56 Price making a small range for itself 40-46. 11:09 Price now approaching the upper range. 11:10 Tagged the ONH, stopped 2 ticks shy of PDH. 11:12 Price breaking to ATH, see if it follows through. 11:16 Not exactly looking like a BO thus far. 11:26 Price has made a push at the projected range top and so far seems to be failing. 11:31 Price pushes past projection, wondering if we are going into an afternoon grind now. 11:38 Price has dropped off, on the down move we might choke on the PDH. 11:50 48 on the downside really not giving up at the minute. 12:01 Back in range. 12:03 Price might ret back to 48, this is just a test of supply. 12:11 We have tested the upper part again at 48, price seems to be holding in this area, we will have to wait and see if it breaks higher or drops into range again. 12:16 Price did not make it too far to the upside before dropping back into the range. 12:20 Price seems hesitant to move to the downside, pushes a little lower then retraces. 12:29 Have to go, back in 30. 12:32 Nice drop past the MP, I'm gone this time. 13:13 Back in action. Price is still in range but failed to push to the lower extreme, after a couple of pushes of the mp price broke higher and seems to be heading back to the upper extreme. 13:23 Not a whole lot to do until price gets to an extreme. 13:37 Price has made it back to 48, this is the earlier range top, whilst the breakdown to 27 and the breakout to 55 represent possible range expansion, I wonder if these merely represent failures of price to move beyond this tighter range. 13:40 Should we still respect 48 as the range top? 13:59 Whilst price broke a little higher it is back below 48. 14:08 Price makes a lower high then drops back into range. 14:14 And we move back out again. 14:15 Price seems to be chewing up this area at the minute. 14:20 Range at 48 2 up 2 down. 15:03 Price has moved to the upside of this small range but is not following through with much fanfare. 15:09 We could be building up to a double top. 15:29 Could this be a DT, or will price continue to grind higher, the behaviour in the lead up might suggest the latter. 15:36 Initially price seems to be dropping off but it is a lethargic move so far. 15:41 Price pushes higher. 15:45 Prices dithers and has failed to follow through to the upside so far. 15:51 Price seems to be dropping off, but it will have 48 to get past in order to keep going. 15:56 I'm calling it a day, a little hard going with what at times feels like PA malaise, with 3 trading days left on my rota feels like the market is keeping its best moves for next week. Nothing new there then. Gamera.

This is what I have come up with. I've also attached the daily as I think it might be relevant. The daily is very much relevant, though I'd leave off the green lines unless their intent is to show overbought and oversold levels. 09:12 You are right about the green lines, my focus for the time being is on the highlighted extremes in red. 09:34 Price has reached the bottom of the PM range and is so far reacting off of it. 09:38 41.5 is an area where price made a DT in the hour prior to open, might get a reaction at this level. 09:41 Price is pushing higher to the upper extreme. 09:42 ONH at 45, price appears to be rejecting this upper extreme. 09:46 Ret on the drop at the mean. 09:49 Confirmed. 09:51 Heading for the lower extreme. 10:02 So we had a drop from the range highs that was stopped at 35 (range lows) price pulled back to the mean before making another stab lower, this move was rejected faster than the last and resulted in a higher high after a DB. 10:04 After this HH price failed to push lower making a HL and is now pushing higher. 10:12 Price seems to be grinding in range. 10:17 Price breaks down. 10:18 Ret. 10:20 Ret confirmed, supply seems hesitant to follow through. 10:24 Little in the way of follow through so far, is this acting as a BO should? 10:25 Another Ret to retest the lower extreme of the range. 10:28 Since we are out of the range SLA takes over. 10:31 We appear to be stuck just below the range low, the BO did not follow through as one would expect it to do so. 10:32 We are back in the range, back to AMT. we had a test lower and demand was sufficient to arrest the drop. 10:37 Price pulled back to the range low for a test, we will see if demand can step in and push higher. 10:42 For the time being AMT is doing its thing. 10:46 Hit the contracted pm range high and is putting in a ret back to the mean. 10:52 This ret has turned into a rev, H,L,LH,=L,LH,LL. of course if one had the correct entry they can let it play out without risking much of a loss. 11:02 A little late to point out this most recent drop was stopped at the 50% level of the rally from lows. 11:08 Price is back at mean and chewing on it. 11:11 Fourtiwinks, hinge? opening high low or the shorter hinge starting on 10:36 low and through the highs? apex on the mean. 11:13 Got it, see your chart now. 11:14 If it does not blow out soon it might just dribble out the apex. 11:17 BO to the upside of hinge. 11:18 Given that we are right around the mean any move out will have to overcome the range extremes. 11:19 Just as a thought, the BO moved about 10 points down from the mean, if we break out an equidistant move to the upside it would put a possible range top at 48-49. 11:22 A trade would still be taken as it is not a proven level. 11:38 Pffffft surprise surprise, price tags the opposing extreme at 43, if one had entered and had endured the PB and hinge around the mean you'd have hit your other extreme now, at least according to my charts. 11:43 Price is now dropping off from the range top. 11:46 Interested to see if price follows through to the downside or if it will push previous highs 43.75 or ATH at 45. 11:48 A few things could happen here, DT, LH or a BO. 11:55 Price did not really drop off and is again lurking around the top of the range. 12:02 Possibly forming a hinge. 12:07 Price breaks out to the upside and into range highs. 12:08 Price has tagged opening high and drops off again. 12:13 This lack of activity is pretty dire, is the market waiting on something? 12:16 Price seems to be balancing on 43 which is the upper extreme and ONH, does this signify anything? perhaps. 12:19 Could this be the start of a breakdown from the upper extreme. 12:20 Lower extreme at 34. 12:21 Price seems to be choking in the area of the mean. 12:29 Ret is deep and is yet to be confirmed. 12:40 Price pushes lower. 12:44 With price failing on the push of the upper extreme, AMT would suggest a return to the lower extreme. 12:47 If price does breakdown I am aware that the last failure could result in a DB, time will tell. 12:49 Price is tangling with the mean of the range. 13:07 Price is grinding in range and looks like it is forming a hinge, apex around the mean. 13:14 Break to the upside of hinge. 13:32 Tagging the upper extreme again. 13:39 Back to the mean. 14:09 Price has been unable to push beyond the mean and is now approaching the upper extreme again. 14:13 Just to cap off the day so far, we had a breakdown that failed to follow through, we eventually made our way to the top of the channel and dropped again, this drop stopped a point +/- or so from the lower extreme, we tag the upper extreme again and drop off to the mean making a higher low. Each push down is weaker than the last, what could it mean? 14:18 We have a BO from the range which rets off the ONH, will it follow through to the upside. 14:23 ONH at 45, no follow through yet. 14:29 We tag ONH at 45. 14:36 Hovering above the PM range top. 14:38 Back in range. 14:41 Price drops off and into the mean where it is retracing. 14:45 Ret may have become a rev. 14:48 This most recent low was a HL than the last drop off from the extreme. 14:58 Looks like a DB in the short term. 15:00 Price appears to be giving up on the mean and moving lower, breaking the series of HL's in the progress, if they ever meant anything. 15:03 Testing the DB and the mean from below. 15:03 Here we are at the bottom extreme, is activity actually picking up now? 15:06 Looking like a breakdown. 15:09 Little in the way of follow through same as the last breakdown. 15:10 Ret confirmed but still little to get excited over. 15:16 BO failed, now back in the range. 15:24 Price is testing the lower extreme. 15:30 Wonder if AMT will see price to the upper extreme by close. 15:45 And here we are. 15:47 We could yet break higher, but, with such a strong move into the upper extreme I would not be surprised to see a quick failure and drop. 15:50 BO to ATH. 15:54 Ret confirmed. 16:00 I'm done for the day. Take it easy and have a good night. Gamera.