Gamera

Prep for 30th January 2017. Weekly and daily is trending up and the hourly is in a range. Trade off the extremes or on the breakouts.

Moving onto live replay in order to improve and work on live interpretations of PA as it unfolds.

Both strategies had 61 trades, the runner is showing 122 as they had different exits and I was not sure how to put it together (excel noob). Some thoughts for moving forward. The runner strategy gets one off early which might feel good initially but, when one gets a hold of a winning trade a trader will miss it as it goes into profit. Majority of my losers came from failed breakouts, whilst these often resulted in the biggest trades they also had the highest fail rate. Taking the ret after the BO would increase success rate, context adds weight to whether a BO in one direction or another will work out. I tend to over think which leads to not taking valid trades, I am not 100% consistent at following the plan. I'm going to play around with my charts and see if I can sync up charts for replay to track price as I do when watching live, if it is a hassle switching around time frames I'll do things in real time. I am going to move forward with an all in all out approach as it is a little problematic at times tracking two strategies at the same time.

A couple more back tests to load with the results at the end.

Static charts scrolling bar by bar, intentions were to backtest until I'm executing plan consistently, forward test via replay, then sim. Reviewing static charts bar by bar is useful for formulating and preliminary testing of hypotheses, but once one gets into actual testing and record-keeping, I suggest moving to live charts, either real-time or replay, with a display that includes at least a daily chart, an hourly chart, and whatever bar interval one is trading. If one is trading the 1m, I suggest including a 5s chart or a 1t chart. Otherwise, what I've written about the continuity of price and the various classes of traders and even demand/supply imbalances will be of little or no value.

When it comes to breaks of the DL/SL the number was 3 points, beyond that the most likely outcome would be a lower high or higher low. The runner strategy is working off this number and the AIAO is more reliant on swing point breaks. In an effort to hold onto trades as long as I can I often miss the first ret after a break if the break is less than 3 points, it's noticeable on a few of the charts posted. This means I end up trading the second ret which is (if the reversal is good) several points off the ideal entry, and often a much riskier trade (5 posts up is an example) I'm looking to trail breaks of less than 3 to catch a reversal should one occur, in conjunction with context and behaviour leading up to and through the break. I'm spending a lot of time watching the markets live and feel a little restricted with backtesting (I cant see how the bars form like I can watching live prices), but, sticking to the plan is proving profitable so far. If you're trading the 1m, I suggest you monitor the 5s alongside in order to catch the RETs. Also watch for the tells (see what I posted today at T2). The tells after REVs will also help you avoid entering "REVs" that turn out to be dogs. This is after all about changes in demand/supply balance; the lines are there only as an aid to detecting these shifts. I also suggest you review your objectives in backtesting. The SLA has after all been thoroughly backtested to begin with, and to continue backtesting can become an avoidance mechanism. As to the three points, remember that Livermore used 3pts above/below the last swing high/low. This is often the same as 3pts+/- a DLB or SLB but not always. Also remember that he was tape reading, as was everybody else, so a 1m chart is pushing the edges of tape reading. So if you have a move > 3pts in both the DLB/SLB and the last swing high/low, then postulate that the trend has been at least temporarily broken, get out, and re-assess for re-entry. Unless there is a continuation, you have only two choices left, a reversal and a lateral move; dogs are relatively rare in these circumstances. If there is a continuation, it will occur out of the lateral move, so exiting and re-assessing is a sort of reset. If you've made enough, you also have the option of quitting. Remember also that you're seeking to determine probability, not surety. Read again "Please Sir", "What Am I Bid", "Equilibrium", "Danger Points", and "The Price of Admission". And remember that there are diminishing returns to these tasks. Some people think that they have to spend weeks staring at tick charts in order to understand continuity of price, but the point should be made in five minutes (if it isn't, then they probably won't get it and ought to move on to something else). When are you going back to work? I kind of forgot I was testing myself and not so much the plan, and from that point of view I'm not doing my job as best I can. As for the tells, I think its lost on me, I read through the continuity of price and the part on ticks and got a little lost, are the tells to do with the class of trader that might be involved, volume, waves or am I missing the point. Are you using static charts or "live" charts via replay?

Two quotes that I really need to bear in mind. And if price keeps running over your stops like a rogue truck? After you have traded for a while, if you find that your stops are being caught too frequently, it will mean that you are not careful enough in starting your trades. Thereafter decide to use more discrimination. Refuse all but the best opportunities. Wait for them. Take your positions as close as you can to the danger points, as shown on your charts or on the tape. Place your stops [at or just beyond the danger points]. Study your mistakes and profit by them. Know every minute why you are starting a trade, why you are holding it, and why you should close out. (Wyckoff) One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do. Most people always have to be playing; they always have to be doing something. They can't just sit there and wait for something new to develop. I wait until there is money lying in the corner, and all I have to do is go over there and pick it up. I do nothing in the meantime. Even people who lose money in the market say, 'I just lost my money, now I have to do something to make it back.' No, you don't. You should sit there until you find something. -- Jim Rogers

I was not so keen on taking shorts at the ONH as this was in an area the conflicted with the hourly break of the SL and subsequent retrace. However, given the daily LOLR being down towards the LL, and the hourly/LTF choking and chopping on the MP of the last HI/LO the secong long was perhaps questionable.

I have spent the last couple of weeks reading as I feel I have wandered into the weeds a little and find myself making mistakes that I thought I had moved beyond. Some of the more apparent issues seem to revolve around losing sight of context, it can be tough not to get sucked into what is happening on a 1 minute timeframe and still bear in mind what traders are doing on the higher timeframes. At times I am excessively rigid, I feel obligated to stick with the numbers and end up holding on far later than I should ignoring the change in behaviour, for example, waiting for a 3 point break of stride before exiting a trade, problem is that for a DL break of 2 points can lead to a DT or LH which could be cause for a short, but, waiting for the 3 point stride break will happen much later and increases the risk. I will have to loosen up a little, keep my eye on the context and be a little more sensitive to what traders are doing.

WEEKLY>DAILY>HOURLY>15>1 minute.