Gamera

Not much to pick out on the lower time frames.

Frustrations around the upper limit of the range.

Plan to wait and take trades at the upper or lower limit of the range.

Days trading results.

I was thinking along those lines at the weekend as I often find myself avoiding trades because I think something is likely to happen and ignoring what is happening. I was trying to word my prep today with what I saw on the various time frames (one of them will work out) without a bias either way. I'll likely still prep ahead of the bell but the focus would be more on where the opportunities lie than on where I think price will go.

At the risk of sounding ignorant of what is happening on the higher time frames I would say that my answer is about the same as the last one regarding the higher time frames, I can tell you that 85-90% of my larger trades (>20 points) are sourced from Hourly/Daily/Weekly levels in the form of a stride breaks, reversals or breakouts. These levels are not exact, I focus on behaviour as price approaches, reaches or surpasses major swing points or medians of prolonged ranges. More often than not (cant give accurate number as exit notes have multiple reasons) the behaviour would change by enough of a margin to exit or flip, this does not mean that price stopped at a level just that the behaviour changed. As for lower time frames, when I was collecting stats for the metrics I use I weigh them up at what point a certain scenario becomes more probable rather than measuring win or success %. I'm bad at explaining things but I'll try my best. I don't know what is going to happen after a trade is triggered so I don't set targets I only define risk, I'm not so sure on how to project outcomes without targets, a profitable trade is not necessarily a good trade and a losing trade is not necessarily a bad trade. I cant say that a stride break trade has a 67% chance of being profitable by say 10 points, I know that the average entry leg on a stride break ret is 7.5 points, a ret that holds beyond a range limit following a BO will have an entry leg of 11.5 points but just because price moves this distance is, in my mind, not a reason to exit. On the other hand, a stride break of a certain value will have an outcome that means price is unlikely to progress further in the direction it has been travelling, this could be a reversal or a range but an exit is the safest option. Clear as mud. Most of my rules are in the first few posts to the thread, I'm considering re-evaluating these metrics as they are often getting caught, doesn't help that I'm executing the plan as poorly as I am.

Prep for the day ahead.

As I trade off the lower time frames (1m) I did not go into too much stat collection on higher time frames such as the weekly and daily. These time intervals are more for gauging the overall market direction and major turning points or opportunities, I like to get a sense of who's side I'm on when I take a trade. I know what my metrics are through back testing and studying swing point breaks, stride breaks, breakouts, continuations and retracements. If behaviour changes (enough) as price approaches an hourly or greater level, I am reasonably confident that there will be a change of direction, but, as has been the case lately, if PA does not move quickly doubts set in and I tighten up, or I don't take the trade or the stop out rule is just tagged.

A little frustrated with myself again, I keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result. My expectations regarding PA in the opening moments of a trade might not be as realistic as they should be, my lack of patience is problematic. Skipping trades or waiting for extra confirmation is a fear of the unknown and it tilts me a little knowing I pass on a reasonable trade that works out, the ones I do take more often than not fail which shows the importance of taking every trade. The only real problem I have today was my reasoning around the exit of trade 2 and the miss after the BO of the pre-market range. Positives, its not all bad, I think I am picking out the context and turning points reasonably well I just mess up the management. Notes: A little woulda, coulda, shoulda as I lost interest once price dropped off after the stop out on trade 2.

Daily has confirmed the ret after the break of stride, LOLR is back down again.

Not the best of days for trading.

Possible change on the daily in preparation for a move lower, hourly time frame has price ranging and the lowest time frame is showing weakness to the upside.

Managed to butcher what seemed like a good day for trading.

I have been wondering what the point is myself recently as the charts look close to identical. I just quickly look to see if there are any levels within the hourly that stick out that might not otherwise be visible on the 60 minute time frame, but, flat PA leaves the chart looking like the scale has gone a little off on the 1m. I prep activity related intervals that condense the overnight session and was thinking I will go back to using those along with the hourly unless something sticks out on the 1m prior to open.

Price is still within a messy range and the LL still hard to define.

3 trades undertaken during the session.

A little tougher to see what is happening on the lower time frames.

One trade for the prep above, price formed a hinge by the time it cleared this I was away from my desk.

Preparation for the day ahead, previous days action was choppy, PA is back under the daily UL, the LOLR is down.

An interesting day in terms of movement, but, my pessimistic outlook on current PA led me to overthink on the first trade. Notes: I could see a few things of interest as they occurred but I was trigger shy and expecting chop so sat out and took notes as the rest of the day unfolded after trade 3.

PA is still flopping around at highs but the range is tightening a little.

Another indecisive day of sorts.

Prep for the day ahead.

1 trade and then shut down as I was expecting more of the same in terms of odd PA. Notes attached.

There is a potential of price to chop around again, or maybe not.