analyst75

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD only consolidated to the downside last week, in the context of a downtrend. There are resistance lines at 1.0750 and 1.0800, which could check rally attempts. There are also support lines at 1.0500 and 1.0450, which are the targets for bears, since further bearish movement is possible. Any rally attempts that happen in the market should be taken as false breakouts. It is expected that the Euro would be weak in December, and so EUR pairs would be bearish in most cases. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This pair managed to go upwards by an addition of 100 pips last week – in solidarity with the extant bullish bias. Since the great psychological level at 1.0000 has been breached to the upside, price has moved northward by 300 pips, testing the resistance level at 1.0300. This bullish journey has a high probability of continuing this week, for the outlook on USD is bright for the month of December (and so is the outlook on CAD). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD moved further south last week, closing below the distribution territory at 1.5050. Yes, continuous southwards movement is expected for most past the month of December, even beyond the month. On GBPUSD, any rallies that are seen this month should be taken as short-selling opportunities, because the accumulation territories at 1.4900, 1.4800 and 1.4700 would be slashed in December. In fact, GBP would be seen falling sharply against other major currencies, and so, positions that favor GBP are not recommended. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral Since this currency trading instrument only moved sideways throughout last week, the outlook has become neutral in the near-term. A breakout is expected this week, which would either take price below the demand levels at 122.00 and 121.50; or take it above the supply levels at 123.50 and 124.00. For this movement to qualify as a serious breakout, price must close below the demand level at 121.50 or above the supply level at 124.00. Nonetheless, a breakout to the upside is much more likely, owing to the bright outlook on the US dollar. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish It has already been said that this cross would find it difficult to rally significantly as long as EUR is weak, unless JPY itself experiences an extraordinary loss in stamina. The EURJPY cross has demonstrated its willingness to continue moving south: There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. On JPY pairs, we would witness pleasant volatility and predictable movements in the month of December. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Volatility and lucrative market movement should continue for many years to come, providing nearly endless opportunities for the well-prepared trader.” – Scott Andrews Copyright: Tallinex.com

Joe Ross is a trading legend, having made a living from the markets for – hold onto your hats – 58 years. He has been trading and investing since his first trade at the age of 14. Currently, he is a well-known and respected master trader and investor. He has survived all the ups and downs of the markets because of his adaptable trading style, using a low-risk approach that produces consistent profits. Joe is the creator of the famous Ross Hook setup, and has set new standards for low-risk trading. He has written twelve major books and countless articles and essays about trading. All his books have become classics, and have been translated into many different languages. In addition, he runs the website Tradingeducators.com, teaching his trading methods and providing resources for traders. Today, we have the great opportunity of speaking with Joe Ross about his approach to the markets, insights he has gained from trading, and his vast experience from trading for more years than almost anybody else on the planet. TRADERS´: Joe, we can only guess at the wealth of experience you gained throughout the years. But first of all, let us begin with how it all started. When did you first hear about the markets and trading, and how did you get – in a positive sense – “addicted” to it? Ross: When I was 14 years old, it was common for mothers to stay at home and fathers to go off to work at a job or business. However, my best friend’s father was usually at home during the working day. I assumed he had some sort of medical problem – that he was a person unable to work. My friend and his family lived quite well in an upper class neighbourhood, and they owned a new car. I remember asking, “Is your father disabled? Why is he always home?” The answer was, “No. He is fine. He does his work in that room, the one with the glass doors.” “Well, what does he do in there?” “I do not know. Why do you not ask him?” So I tapped on the glass door, and asked “What is it that you do in here?” The answer was, “Well, if you really want to know, come in and I will show you.” My friend’s father walked over to a closet to pull out a roll of paper, which he then unrolled onto a drafting table. He said, “I work with this chart, and others just like it.” All I could see were a lot of things that looked like sticks, and so I asked, “Your job is drawing sticks?” “No, those represent stocks, not sticks.” “What is a stock? Does a stock look like a stick?” He began to describe what stocks were, and to tell me that the sticks represented the prices of a company’s shares of stock. I was fascinated that he could make money from what turned out to be a simple bar chart. At that time, both of my parents worked. My parents had to suffer through the daily rush-hour traffic, which was quite heavy. However, my friend’s father was leading a much more leisurely life, and I decided right then that I would learn how to trade stocks… To read the complete interview, please visit: Tradersonline-mag.com or Traders-media.com Courtesy: TRADERS’ magazine, October/November 2015, pages 104 – 105 PS: Tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets.

“Education is incredibly important for traders. Traders should look to educate themselves as much as they can along their trading journey.” – James Hughes In USA, Thanksgiving Day is around the corner. Thanksgiving Day is a national holiday celebrated primarily in the United States and Canada as a day of giving thanks for the blessing of the harvest and of the preceding year. Several other places around the world observe similar celebrations. It is celebrated on the fourth Thursday of November in the United States and on the second Monday of October in Canada (definition source: Wikipedia.org). This year, Canada celebrated their Thanksgiving Day on October 13, 2014; the US will celebrate theirs on November 27, 2014. The essence of this holiday is to give thanks. In trading also there are many things we can give thanks for. We tend to complain and fret over the disadvantages we think we face, without thinking of the advantages we enjoy. When we ponder the blessings we enjoy in our trading career (as well as in life), those seeming disadvantages pale into insignificance. During my quite time, many reasons to be thankful as a trader came to my mind. Obviously, traders now enjoy great tools and services that were not available to those who were speculating just a few decades ago. Here are some of the reasons to be thankful. There are many more reasons than these. Could you think of additional reasons? 1. We’re grateful for the opportunity to trade and invest our money. 2. We’re grateful for good brokers out there who treat their clients fairly. 3. We’re grateful for funds managers who help us make profits by managing our funds. We’re grateful for great opportunities like copy trading/social trading, winning signals services, etc. which help us make money. 4. We’re grateful for regulatory bodies that regulate brokers, financial institutions, etc. They make financial markets safer for us to trade. 5. We’re grateful for cutting-edge trading platforms, data feeds and other tools that are available to us. 6. We’re grateful for free and paid education materials that are available to us. We enjoy trading education through various means, including books, DVDs, trading rooms, webinars, etc. 7. We’re thankful for many career opportunities that are available in the world of trading. 8. We’re grateful for winning trading systems and software – manual, semi-automated and automated strategies that are at our disposal. There are many strategies out there that work. 9. We’re thankful for those analytical tools and indicators that are available to us. These things help us to analyze the markets objectively. 10. We’re thankful for the fact that trading is a fantastic life-style. We can trade anywhere in the world as long as we have access to a good Internet connection. 11. We’re thankful that the markets don’t discriminate on the basis of nationality, gender, religion, education background, race, tribe, color, etc. The markets are a level playing ground, offering anyone an equal opportunity to be successful irrespective of the aforementioned factors. 12. We’re grateful that there are many good trading coaches the world over. They help us master various aspects of trading psychology, risk management, positions sizing, trading systems, chart patterns, trend cycles, etc. These coaches are selfless and altruistic individuals who love to help struggling traders. As for me, when the going was tough and I wanted to quit, I was inspired by successful coaches who made me realize that there are people who’re making consistent profits and that I can be successful too. 13. We’re thankful for the riches and financial freedom the markets proffer. Many people have made billions of dollars as traders and some of them are among the richest individuals on this planet. You mayn’t become a billionaire (or even a millionaire), but you can become financially free and live a fulfilled life. I define financial freedom as being able to meet your basic needs and still save money for future use. 14. We’re grateful for the availability of positive expectancy – which makes us make money regardless of occasional losses. If there were someone who can’t lose in the markets, that person would soon have all the money in the world. We do the right things to get the right results. The secret to trading success is in controlling your losses and adding to your winners. 15. We’re grateful that the markets don’t offer short-cuts to lasting success. More haste in trading is equal to less speed. Short-cuts are very dangerous. Those who take short-cuts are trying to dodge realities, but realities will face them eventually. 16. We’re grateful for the movement and liquidity present in the markets. Super rich individuals don’t seek to double their portfolios overnight. Instead, they seek slow and steady returns (which translate into great wealth over time). Retracements in the markets can be played by any trader, since they reflect smoothing of positions by large financial establishments. The smoothing of positions by large financial establishments sometimes cause contrarian movements in the markets, which are sometimes called significant rallies or dips. 17. We’re thankful that we’re free moral agents who can choose what our fate will be. Being active in the markets is a matter of interest and choice. When you’re interested in something, no-one needs to beg you or persuade you constantly before you do it. You’d even be willing to spend your time, resources and energy in order to master what you’re interested in. But if you aren’t interested in something, you won’t do it no matter how much noise is made about it, even if you’re persuaded again and again. The list can go on… The tools and services we enjoy as traders ought not to be taken for granted. Can you think of any other reasons we should be grateful as traders? Conclusion: We wish Americans a peaceful, blissful and rewarding Thanksgiving Day celebration. At the same time, we are grateful for wonderful opportunities the markets offer us. Yes, there are many reasons to be grateful as traders. When you taste success in your trading career, you’ll be hooked, and as such, you’d do well to strive for permanent success, not temporary success. May you become a successful trader. I end this article with the quote below: “Remember, trading from your highest and best self is all that matters to getting your desired trading results.” – Dr. Woody Johnson Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD did not make any serious directional movement last week, for what was seen was slow short-term movements to the upside and downside (and they were nothing significant). On Friday, price closed at 1.0645, highlighting the ongoing weakness in the pair. There is a possibility that the support lines at 1.0600 and 1.0550 might be tested; otherwise a strong bullish breakout could take price towards the resistance levels at 0.0700 and 0.0750. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This pair moved upwards 150 pips last week, reaching the resistance level at 1.0200, which is our suggested target for the last week. Nonetheless, price was unable to go above that resistance level, and this week would see whether that feat would be achieved. In case the resistance level is overcome successfully, the pair could move further upwards by another 150 pips. Failure to achieve this could result in a bearish correction, though it seems unlikely that the great support level at 1.0000 would be breached to the downside now. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish In the context of a downtrend, Cable made a noteworthy bullish attempt – even going temporarily above the distribution territory at 1.5300. This upwards bullish attempt later proved to be a bogus “buy” signal because bears came in and pushed price back to the level it was at beginning of last week. Further downward movement is a probability, plus the bearish bias would hold out as long as price is unable to go above the distribution territory at 1.5300, (and staying above it). USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This market consolidated throughout last week, though there was no price action that suggested the end of the extent bullish bias. Should the consolidation continue this week without a directional bullish movement or bearish movement, then the bias on the market would turn neutral. One thing has been noted: Some pairs and exotic crosses have begun trending strongly and this could extend across the FX markets, including USDJPY. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument went further south last week, closing below the supply zone at 131.00, just in conjunction with the ongoing weakness in the market. The southward movement last week was not a serious thing, but price could still go further south. On the other hand, the hope of bullish JPY pairs has not been lost for this month. In case the Yen loses stamina versus other currencies, EURJPY could be enabled to trend upwards. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Brilliant traders are being made today, and if you shelter without taking action, your next few years could be wasted. Leaps in skill development occur when tests are presented. Smooth sailing doesn’t prepare the sailor. It is challenges that focus the mind like no other.” – Louise Bedford Copyright: Tallinex.com

A STEP BETWEEN PENURY AND SOLVENCY “Once you take the desire to make money out of your trading and put in the desire to do what good traders do, your mindset shifts and allows you to make more good decisions.” – Craig Cobb Alan* has reached the end of his tether. His handiwork is not enough to feed him with staple foods, not to mention paying his rent. He’s getting old and he needs to get married so that he can start a family, but he can’t even afford the lowest-key wedding ceremony. He wants to gather some money for his wedding. He applies to a chemical factory and he’s hired immediately. It happens that anyone who applies there will be hired immediately because no educational background is required. Besides, the strongest man in the world can’t work in the factory for one year. Alan discovers that the working conditions are so ignominiously abject. Apart from the fact that you must work for a minimum of 12 hours per day (84 hours per week), with very hard labor, factory safety is zero rating and the pungent chemical itself carries a major health hazard. If you get injured, you’ll be fired with no first aid. The monthly salary is less than 100 USD. You’ll be penalized for coming late to work and 3 USD would be deducted from your salary per day if you’re absent, even if your absence is due to heath issues. Alan likes to work hard and he’s hardy, yet he quits the job in less than 3 weeks. The stinking chemical is taking tolls on his health. Samson’s wife is dead, leaving 3 children for him. Samson believes the only way to honor the memory of his dearly beloved wife is to take good care of her children. Although his income is not that much, he manages the money well so that the children can attend school and have access to basic balanced diet. Suddenly, Samson’s boss announces that the firm is no longer making profits and all the employees would be laid off in a month’s time. The firm folds up. Since then, Samson has been looking for a job – any job – without success. He lives in a country where over 40% of able-bodied citizens aren’t employed. The kids are now suffering: they’re out of school and malnourished. Alisa is a full-time housewife and a responsible mom. She’s resigned from her work in order to attend to her kids, for she’s worried that her kids may suffer some disadvantages if she and her hubby have to stay away from home for economic reasons. Alisa, however, perceives that her husband’s income would be barely enough to sustain the family. Therefore, she needs to look for some passive income to supplement the family’s income and possibly safeguard their future. Life is full of risk. Someone loses an election after a huge amount of money has been spent. That doesn’t make it improper to spend money on elections. Someone starts a transportation business and ends up running at loss. That doesn’t mean that transportation business is bad. Someone loses his child after spending a fortune to bring them up and educate them. That doesn’t mean it’s wasteful to take care of one’s children. Someone purchases some valuables that are eventually stolen, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong to buy valuables. A movie or an album is produced, but it does not sell well (a floundering title or a crashing failure). Do we then need to tell people to abstain from movie or album production? A dear Christian brother is ill and hospitalized. We pray fervently for his recovery; yet he dies. Does that mean prayers are useless? Someone’s house is destroyed in a natural disaster, but it doesn’t mean we should be preaching against owning a home. Someone’s marriage crashes after spending huge sums on the union. Does that mean it’s wrong to get married? Someone has an accident with his car. Does that mean one shouldn’t buy a car? The list could go on. Doctors jailed. Ferries capsize. Mines explode, etc. The list of professional hazards out of trading is inexhaustible. The fact that some people lose in trading doesn’t make it a bad career. This is in a huge contrast to what members of the public believe. If they see one negative trade, they start preaching to people to avoid trading like a plague. These are the people that suffer losses in other areas of life but they don’t see bad things in them. If you don’t know successful traders, there are many of them. Many people see trading as being risky. Yet, they lose heavily in other aspects of life. Majority of people start small scale businesses; but statistics shows that over 90% of small scale businesses fail within their first 3 years. Think of an easy job, millions of people are also thinking of doing that job. The economy is already glutted. Generally, the jobs and trades that every Tom, Dick and Harry finds easy to do or start scarcely bring financial freedom. The kinds of jobs that bring real financial freedom – like trading the markets – are what most people abhor and find extremely challenging. Some educated people are suffering because they believe in ‘I beg to apply’ mentality. After all, that’s the reason why most people go to college. One of the most difficult things one can do now is to seek and get a good job. The number of school leavers would continue to outpace the number of jobs created and the situation has high chances of getting worse. I know somebody who wanted to get employed in a popular oil company. He was told to get a master’s degree, for he’d only a bachelor’s degree then. He enrolled in a master’s degree program. After he completed the program, he went back to the oil company, only to be told that there was no vacancy for him. While his degrees aren’t a disadvantage to him, must he work for an oil company? Can you ask Deron Wagner or Anton Kreil to go for master’s degrees before you employ them? Without financial freedom, the future looks bleak indeed. Most private companies don’t have retirement plans for their employees, even in developed lands. Most companies and organizations now prefer contract staff. Do you want to put your financial destiny in the hands of your boss? You may be working right now (or even self-employed), but do you think people will still need your services at old age? If you’re a plumber or a driver, would people still give you jobs to do at old age, when there are numerous young men who’re also competent? Have you even saved enough money for your old age, or do you expect your children to support you then? Growing older is no offence: it’s a privilege. Nevertheless, some employers wouldn’t consider you if you’re above a certain young age. They’ll tell you: “Applicants who’re above the age of 25 need not apply.” Can they ever say that to David Tepper or David Harding? Nothing ventured, nothing gained; and to do nothing is to become nothing. If you can become a successful trader, you’ll attain financial freedom. You aren’t going to be retired, for you’ll continue to trade at your old age. You’ll trade leisurely and effortlessly and get rewarded. People like Van K. Tharp and Joe Ross are elderly traders and they’re successful. The older you become and the more the years of experience you gain, the more valuable and the more sought-after you’ll become. Trading is as serious business. We want you to become a successful trader. While people complain of economic hardships, you’ll only be smiling to you bank. This article is ended by the quote below: “…Trading is the art of paying the price for something you want. It is the art of regarding fear as the greatest sin, and giving up as the greatest mistake. It is the art of accepting failure as a step toward victory.” – Roy Longstreet *Names in this article have been changed Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD did not move upwards or downwards significantly last week, though the outlook remains bearish. Last week was the week in which the FX markets consolidated the most this year, with certain pairs and crosses not going up or down by 50 pips throughout the week. EURUSD simply vacillated between the support line at 1.0700 and the resistance line at 1.0800, but there might be a breakout this week, which would favor the current bearish outlook (although the consolidation could continue for some time). USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Just like EURUSD, USDCHF moved in a tight range last week. Price moved between the great psychology level at 1.0000 and the resistance level at 1.0100. The ranging movement could keep on happening for some time, but a breakout would eventually happen, which would probably favor bulls, as price goes further upwards, targeting the resistance level at 1.0200. It would require a serious bearish force for price to breach the great psychological level at 1.0000 to the downside. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish In the context of a downtrend, Cable made a determined bullish correctional movement throughout last week. The market rose from the accumulation territory at 1.5050, topping at the distribution territory at 1.5250. This is a bullish movement of 200 pips, but it cannot render the downtrend invalid unless the distribution territory at 1.5350 is broken to the upside. Until that happens, long trades might be opened with caution. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish After reaching the supply level at 123.50, this currency trading instrument got corrected downwards a little, reaching the demand level at 122.50. Apart from this, there was nothing significant last week, as it is true of other pairs and crosses. Even most fundamental figures that were supposed to impact major pairs were shrugged off last week, save the Australian employment figures, which impacted AUD pairs. USDJPY might also continue moving sideways, but a breakout is in the offing. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The EURJPY cross was simply choppy; and that might continue this week. The cross would find it difficult to trend seriously upwards as long as the Euro is weak, and so, the movement in the context of a downtrend could continue. Nonetheless, there is still a possibility that most JPY pairs could assume a measure of bullish effort this month; and that could be when EURJPY would trend upwards. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “One of the most common misconceptions is that a retail trader cannot successfully and profitably day trade – I can tell you now that’s a load of tosh and don’t believe those naysayers… This belief normally comes from people who have royally failed and so try and take others down with them.” – Chronictrader (Trade2win) Copyright: Tallinex.com

“You do not need a PhD in math or physics to be successful in the stock market, just the right knowledge, a good work ethic, and discipline.” – Mark Minervini Imagine. There’s someone who borrowed a total of $13 million to make a movie. She’s a credit officer at a big financial institution who’s helped many candidates secure loans to finance their ambitions. She herself was unable to get a loan to finance the production of her movie. In fact, it took her more than 6 years to get money to produce her movie. After going to the States to learn how to direct movies, she’d to sell all her property and borrow money from some friends and banks, before they could get the needed $13 million to finance the movie. The movie could’ve been a crashing failure, but fortunately, it was a roaring success. This courageous woman took a great risk. Can you see the length people can go in order to achieve their dreams? The risk I take as a trader is even far less than this, with the assurance that my possibility of success is high because I’m a veteran trader. Have you been touched by sadness in trading? You might feel that’s a problem without solution. But there’s a solution – namely, the necessary mindset and principles that are necessary for your happiness. A losing period is a terrible problem, but there are wonderful solutions to that. If people discourage you, you could begin to think that the sacrifices you make in your trading career aren’t worthwhile or that you can’t attain permanent success. Since we’re surrounded by people that don’t understand the truth about trading, we must strive to keep our focus on the ultimate goals. If You Can Draw a Straight Line, You Can Become a Successful Trader This subheading was taken from one of the titles written by DbPhoenix of Trade2win.com. Contrary to what most people tend to think, you can become a permanently successful trader if you’ve a positive expectancy methodology and a winning attitude. The road to profitability is to think positively and take steps. This doesn’t mean that your steps would often lead to what you want. There are times when you’ll feel that you can’t become a winning speculator. You can even contemplate quitting. I know this. It’s happened to me. There were times when I was discouraged by poor trading results and I thought of abandoning my trading career. Nonetheless, I was aware of the potency of perseverance, and so, I didn’t quit. After many years of grappling with the markets, I’m eventually able to make money in the markets, surviving trendless and choppy periods and moving smoothly ahead when the markets trend strongly. I’m now able to keep my funds safe despite the vagaries of the markets. Sometimes, I make more than I even anticipate in a month. The Providence used Forex to remove me from poverty and launch me onto my way to financial freedom. Conclusion: Like the veterans of the markets, we don’t feel that the years we spend trying to bring our best trading self are a waste of time. Rather, we’re sure that the challenges are transitory and the rewards are permanent. I think of someone like Adam Jowett, who’s an entrepreneur and a developer who trades anywhere possible, like in the toilet, in the bus and in his garage. I know another trader who travels worldwide and trades on the go, raking in lots of money in the process. This piece is ended by the quote below: “Learning by trading may be the school of hard knocks, but in the end that is the best school you can attend. Just keep standing up over and over again, until you learn how to profit. Until that point, trade small and make sure to stay in the game. Make sure you will still be there once the profits arrive. And do not forget to enjoy the ride.” – Marko Graenitz Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair dropped 300 pips last week, testing the support line at 1.0700. The largest southwards movement last week occurred on Friday – a result of positive fundamental figures coming out of the US. The outlook on the pair remains bearish, which would be valid as long as USD is strong. The Euro could rally against certain other currencies this month, but it is not likely that it would rally seriously against the US dollar. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish The movement on this intriguing pair has been nicely predictable. Price moved further north by 200 pips as the US dollar reached parity with the Swiss Franc (as it was forecasted last week). There is a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, owing to the stamina in USD. As price has closed above the great psychological support level at 1.0000, it would no longer be easy for bears to breach the level again. In fact, further upward journey is expected from here. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Last week, Cable was the strongest moving pair among the majors. It fell by roughly 400 pips, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5050. The selling pressure in the market is quite strong and this might continue further this week. Any upwards bounces that are seen here should be taken as opportunities to sell short, because price could go further south by at least, 200 pips this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This currency trading instrument moved smoothly upwards last week. The movement was especially serious on Friday, November 6, 2015. Price is now staying above the demand level at 123.00, targeting the supply levels at 124.00 and 125.00. Since the outlook on most JPY pairs is bullish for the month of November, it is logical to conclude that this currency trading instrument would continue its uptrend. There are other demand levels at 122.00 and 121.50, which are supposed to check any large pullbacks along the way. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Although this cross did not move seriously last week, it remains in a bearish mode. Price tested the demand zone at 131.50, but it could not breach it to the downside. The cross would be weak as long as the Euro is weak. Nonetheless, it could only be pushed up by a surprise weakness in the Yen, which might eventually happen this week or next week, since it is expected that most JPY pairs would be bullish this month. On the EURJPY cross, predictable directional movements would be witnessed from now till the end of the year 2015. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “I notice that today there are much larger movements occurring much more quickly than in the past. That’s a good thing for us traders since the large [movements] will also result in good opportunities for making a profit.” – Oliver Klemm Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair first moved sideways in the first few days of last week, and then price broke down again on October 28, reaching the support line at 1.0900. From that support line, price has bounced upwards a bit, testing the resistance line at 1.1050. The bias on this pair remains bearish and further downwards movement is possible in the month of November, principally because the outlook on USD is bright for the month. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF went upwards smoothly last week, reaching the resistance level at 0.9950. However, bulls have been unable to push price above that resistance level, as price eased by almost 100 pips, testing the support level at 0.9850. USDCHF should continue its upwards journey this month, possibly reaching the great psychological level at 1.0000, which means USD could probably reach parity with CHF this month, given the bullish expectation on USD for this month. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBP shall undergo strong and fast movements this month as bulls and bears struggle for supremacy, which would also be visible on GBP pairs. Price tested the accumulation territory at 1.5250 and then spiked upwards on Friday. In spite of the upwards spike, the bias is bearish. A movement above the distribution territory at 1.5500 could end the current bearish bias, and until that happens, long trades are not recommended. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish USDJPY did not make any serious directional movement last week, since there were transitory upswings and downswings in the market. Should this kind of price action continue throughout this week, the market could enter another equilibrium phase. Nonetheless, the bullish bias is supposed to continue this month (certain JPY pairs would make attempts to rally in November, except AUDJPY and NZDJPY, because the outlook on AUD and NZD is strongly bearish for the month of November). EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument cannot make any significant bullish movement as long as Euro is very weak. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market: Long trades would be illogical unless the supply zone at 134.00 is overcome. Until that happens, rallies could be taken as short-selling opportunities. In case Yen becomes weaker than Euro, a meaningful reversal would be witnessed. Euro itself would make effort to rally against some currencies in this month, save Greenback. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Fortunately, the positive expectations of full time trading prove to be true. Every day is exciting and the world of trading never bores. There is always a lot going on in the financial markets and there is plenty to discover.” - Christiaan van der Meer Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair traded in a tight range from Monday to Wednesday and then broke out southwards on Thursday. The southward break was strong enough to cause a new bearish outlook on EURUSD (plus most other EUR pairs), which would continue for the rest of this month. Last week, price fell 350 pips, testing the support line at 1.1000. That support line is a psychological level – a breach of it to the downside would result in further southward movement. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish In most cases, the movement on USDCHF is largely determined by whatever happens to EURUSD. As long at the latter had stamina in it, the former was under bearish pressure. As soon as EURUSD broke down, USDCHF skyrocketed, rising from the support level at 0.9500; with price almost reaching the resistance level at 0.9800. This is a movement of roughly 300 pips, and it has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Further upward journey is expected this week: The resistance levels at 0.9850 and 0.9900 are potential targets. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish There is a bearish signal on GBPUSD, owing to its inability to trend upwards. All previous northward attempts were foiled at the distribution territory of 1.5500, which is now a major barrier to the bulls. The bias on this market can never be bullish as long as price is under the distribution territory at 1.5500. In the last few trading days, price made a bearish move, now very close to the accumulation territory at 1.5300. Unless the distribution territory at 1.5500 is breached to the upside, short positions are recommended. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish As it was mentioned in the last week forecast, there has been an end to the recent equilibrium phase on USDJPY, which lasted for several weeks. One of the conditions for the end of the equilibrium phase has been met: A close above the demand level at 121.00. The current bullish journey began on October 15, but it was not counted as been significant until price closed above the demand level at 121.00, almost testing the supply level at 121.50. USDJPY now looks sexy (attractive) to swing and position traders. Price should continue its bullish journey for the rest of the month (even beyond October 2015). EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross initially made a faint bullish movement in the first few days of last week, as price moved above the supply zone at 136.00. However, the sudden loss of stamina in EUR caused the cross to tumble. The cross dived smoothly, reaching the demand zone at 133.50. The cross would find it difficult to rally when EUR remains very week, unless JPY itself becomes weaker than EUR. There is still some hope of JPY pairs strengthening before the end of this month. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Sit down, observe the markets and go trading!” – Marko Graenitz Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair initially moved upwards last week, but it could not reach the resistance line at 1.1500 before it got corrected downwards. On Friday, price closed at 1.1348, though the bias is bullish. The bullish bias will remain valid as long as the support line at 1.1250 is not broken to the downside. Any bearish attempts that are seen here should be interpreted as an opportunity to go long, unless the aforementioned support line is broken to the downside. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish As long as EURUSD makes visible bullish effort, USDCHF would not perform any meaningful rally. Price went south last week, testing the support level at 0.9500 many times without being able to close below it. On Friday, price closed below the resistance level at 0.9550. There is a need to breach the support level at 0.9500 to the downside so that the bearish trend could continue. There are resistance levels at 0.9600 and 0.9650, which should try to defend the current bearish bias. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This currency trading instrument went sideways on Monday. It went south on Tuesday, but rallied seriously on Wednesday in conformity to the existing bullish outlook. Price headed into the distribution territory at 1.5500; being unable to break above it. That distribution territory is now a challenge to bulls – they must overcome it so that the current bullish outlook could continue to make sense. The pair is supposed to continue moving upwards. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral USDJPY experienced a bearish breakout last week, and price went down 200 pips as a result of that. This would have led to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, but the upwards bounce that happened after that has pushed back the price into the recent neutral territory. Price bounced upwards by 150 pips, just before the demand level at 118.00 could be tested. The condition for the end of the current neutral bias is this: Price must either close above the supply level at 121.00 or below the demand level at 118.00. That condition can still be fulfilled this month. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross moved sideways from Monday till Wednesday (October 12 - 14), and then performed a large pullback on Thursday, testing the demand zone at 135.00. Unless the demand zone at 134.50 is breached to the downside, EURJPY the uptrend would be rational. It is likely that EURJPY would go up this week or next week. Most JPY pairs could also go up before the end of the month. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Your best bet is to think like a four-year-old. When prices go up, I am bullish, and when they go down, I am bearish.” – Dennis Gartman Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish EURUSD went north last week, closing above the support line at 1.1350. This seems to have ended the recent choppy movement in the market. By every indication, it is much more likely that the pair would continue going upwards this week, breaking above the resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450. The support lines at 1.1300 and 1.1250 should try to defend the current bullishness in the market. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This market has become bearish, dropping from the resistance level at 0.9750, and testing the support level at 0.9600. This has led to a bearish signal in the market, which might enable price to continue going further south. As long as EURUSD keeps on going up, USDCHF would be under selling pressure. The support lines at 0.9600, which has already been tested, could be re-tested. It could even be broken to the downside as price targets another support line at 0.9500. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Contrary to the sideways movement that was witnessed two week ago, GBPUSD performed some bullish movement last week. There is no longer a bearish outlook on GBPUSD. Price rose from the accumulation territory at 1.5150 and closed above the accumulation territory at 1.5300 (though it briefly went above the distribution territory at 1.5350). For this week, the outlook on the pair is bullish: something that is true of GBP pairs. We may thus see price attaining the distribution territories at 1.5450 and 1.5500. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This currency trading instrument has not yet made any serious direction movement, except that price vacillates between the supply level at 121.00 and the demand level at 119.00. This has been going on for several weeks. However one thing is sure: There would be an end to the present consolidation in this month and it might happen this week. When a breakout happens, it would most likely favor bulls. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The rally that happened on this cross has caused a nice Bullish Confirmation Pattern on it. On Friday, price closed at 136.58; on a bullish note. This means the cross is much more likely to continue going further upwards and thus, a northward movement of at least, 200 pips, could be witnessed this week. The outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week; partly owing to the ongoing weakness in JPY. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “The most important thing is to understand that the “holy grail” in trading is the combination of discipline and a strategy with a positive expected value. Once you have that, you just have to be successful.” – Oliver Klemm Copyright: Tallinex.com

INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 14 “Most traders will quit and stay away from trading after blowing up a few trading accounts. But those with grit will constantly reflect upon their actions and seek to better themselves, which separates the winners from the losers.” – Rayner Teo Name: Martin Schwartz Year of birth: 1945 Nationality: American Hobbies: Professional trading and professional horse racing Career In 1967, Martin attended Amherst College. He also earned an MBA from Columbia University in 1970. He served in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserves from the year 1968 to the year 1973. He also worked as a financial analyst at E. F. Hutton. He saved about one $100,000 USD and went into full-time trading, buying a seat on the American Stock Exchange. That year, he made a profit of $600, 000 USD and in the following year, he made a profit of $1.2 million USD. But we need to know that prior to that time, he was a consistent loser in the markets. In 1984, Martin became famous when he won the U.S. Investing Championship. He’s made great wealth from the markets. He authored a book titled “Pit Bull: Lessons from Wall Street's Champion Day Trader.” He loves to go for short-term market fluctuations, and being successful at doing that, he began managing money for other people. From the year 2002 till now, Martin Schwartz has been winning in professional horse racing. Insights 1. Contrary to some people’s opinion, it’s possible to become a successful trader using technical analysis. When Martin was trading based on fundamentals, he was losing. When he became a technical analyst he earned a fortune. However, there are also successful fundamental analysts. The lesson is that, you shouldn’t say something can’t work for others just because it isn’t working for you. 2. You need to approach the markets as a serious business; those who comply with this fact get paid from those who don’t comply. 3. You need to work hard before you can become a profitable trader. There’s nothing worth having which comes easily. Hard work is part of your probability of attaining success as a trader. 4. We want to make money, without being necessarily right. We need to master our ego and realize that making money is more important than being right. We make money by cutting our losses, and we lose money by letting them run. Martin Schwartz says that by preserving your capital through the use of stops, you make it possible to wait patiently for a high-probability trade with a low-risk entry-point. One of the great tools of trading is the stop, the point at which you divorce yourself from your emotions and ego and admit that you´re wrong. 5. Prepare for each trading day, for it matters much. No trades, no profits. You need to pull the trigger before you can hope to make any profits. Conclusion: There are traders who’ve spent many years in the markets without being profitable. Isn’t it so frustrating when we keep on losing money in spite of the vast knowledge we’ve in the markets? We’ll be tempted from time to time to conclude that it’s impossible to make money trading Forex, yet we won’t give up because there is a kind of inner hope that would keep on pushing us to success. We definitely need to be courageous. We shouldn’t make things difficult for ourselves when trading. Majority of traders don’t want to agree that using difficult trading methods don’t increase profitability. This article is ended with a quote from Martin: “Trading is a psychological game. Most people think they are playing against the market, but the market doesn´t care. You’re really playing against yourself.” Further reading: Advfnbooks.com Copyright: Tallinex.com

GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Gold has been trending downwards for several weeks, with intermittent rallies along the way. The intermittent rallies were sometimes strong enough to threaten the existing bearish bias in the short term. On October 2, 2015, price spiked upwards seriously, threatening the existing bearish bias again; but the bias would not be over until the resistance levels at 1160.00 and 1170.00 are overcome. In case this happens, it would lead to a serious bullish phase which could hold out till the end of this year. Until that happens, buyers should approach the market with caution, for price could still go downwards to test the support levels 1105.00 and 1100.00. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Just like Gold, Silver shot upwards on October 2, 2015, without much retracement. From the demand level at 14.3600, price went significantly upwards, testing the supply level at 15.2800, without easing that much. This is a great challenge to the extant bearish outlook on Silver (there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market), which could render the bearish invalid in case price goes above the supply levels at 15.5000 and 15.7000. Should this happen, bulls might keep pushing the price upwards for the rest of the year. The demand levels at 14.4000 and 14.2000 could be tested in the event that the bearish movement continues. Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD was volatile for most past of last week, and there is not yet a strong directional movement, though the bias is bearish. Even the bullish breakout that was performed on Friday could prove to be a false breakout unless the resistance lines at 1.1350 and 1.1400 are overcome. On the other hand, there are strong support lines at 1.1150 and 1.1100. This month, there could be some selling pressure on EURUSD as a result of an expected strength in USD. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish In spite of the large pullback that was seen on October 2, this pair remains a bull market. For the bull market to be rendered illogical, there is a need for the pair to breach the support levels 0.9600 and 0.9550 to the downside, staying below them. It would not be easy for bears to achieve this aim because the outlook on USD is bright for the month of October (and so is the outlook on CHF). What can be a noteworthy challenge for the bullish bias on USDCHF is the expected stamina in CHF itself, which would be visible on certain CHF pairs within the last two weeks of this month. In addition, a significant rally must happen on EURUSD before USDCHF can go south protractedly. Unless that happens, USDCHF would remain bullish, meaning that the last pullback might be another opportunity to join the uptrend. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The rally that happened on this currency trading instrument last Friday was not strong enough to jeopardize the existing bearish trend in the market. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and there is a possibility that price could continue going south. Since the outlook on USD is bright for the month of October, price would find it somewhat difficult to make a protracted northward journey. Large movements are expected this month. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral There is not yet any directional movement on this currency trading instrument. This is a choppy market and it would be prudent to stay away from it until there is a directional movement. For this currency pair to go into a trending mode, price must either close above the supply level at 121.50 or below the demand level at 118.00. Without this happening, the market would remain choppy and trendless. One thing is sure: There would be an end to the present consolidation in this month. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The movement of this cross was somehow flat last week – all in the context of a downtrend. This cross, including other JPY pairs, would perform strong trending movements this month, and this week is likely to be bullish for some JPY pairs, including the EUR/JPY cross. There could be an upwards movement of 200 pips this week, which would lead to a brand-new bullish outlook, should it happen. A major factor in the direction of this cross in this week is the condition of Yen, which could be weak. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading can be an intellectual stimulation, as well as a way to make money…. A well-conceived and executed transaction is a thing of beauty, to be experienced, enjoyed, and remembered. It should have an essence transcending monetary reward.” - Mark Minervini (a trading legend) Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair fell 200 pips last week, almost touching the support line at 1.1100. Afterwards, price bounced upwards by 180 pips and then got corrected lower. The price action in the market reveals that bulls are still making noticeable effort to push the price upwards, all in the context of a downtrend. This week, serious volatility would be witnessed as bulls continue to make more bullish effort, which would not jeopardize the extant bearish bias until the resistance line at 1.1300 is overcome. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF moved upwards in a directionally mode last week, breaking above the resistance level at 0.9800, but closing below it at the end of the week. The short-selling that occurred on September 24, 2015 simply provided an opportunity to go long at better prices. Unless EURUSD experiences a significant bullish movement, USDCHF cannot plunge significantly. So whatever would happen to USDCHF this week would be determined by the movement of EURUSD. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Last week, this pair dropped almost 400 pips, testing the accumulation territory at 1.5150. Last week, it was mentioned that the pair would have difficulty going upwards: That statement is also valid for this week. Any rallies that happen on this pair would be good opportunities to sell short at better prices. Another southwards movement of at least, 200 pips, is expected this week. So that accumulation territories at 1.5100 and 1.5000 are potential targets. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral There is not yet any directional movement on this currency trading instrument and it would be nice for swing and position traders to stay away from it until there is a strong breakout. However, this instrument is currently great for scalpers and intraday traders. Before a breakout can be termed as being strong here, there must be a bearish or a bullish movement of at least, 300 pips. Most of the month of September 2015 has been trendless. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish EURJPY cross first moved downwards 200 pips, and then started going upwards gradually on September 23. There is still a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which cannot be violated as long as the cross is unable to go above the supply zone at 136.00. Once that supply zone is overcome, then things would be bullish; but until that is done, this is a bear market. Any rally that is seen could thus be deceptive. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “I do not trade for sport or hobby. I trade for a living. So it is important for me to quantify trading opportunities and determine that I do in fact have an edge before I enter a position.” – Rob Hanna Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Though this pair was trendless in the first few days of last week, it was characterized by high volatility on Thursday and Friday. Price moved upwards On Thursday and got corrected downwards on Friday. However, the outlook on the pair is bullish: we may witness further bullish journey this week (which may also happen on most other EUR pairs). Price could reach the resistance lines at 1.1450 and 1.1550 this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF also consolidated in the first few days of last week, broke down on Thursday and bounced upwards on Friday. The overall bias remains bearish, nonetheless. As long as EURUSD is strong and CHF refuses to yield to gravity in a significant mode, it would be difficult for USDCHF to experience any meaningful rally. The resistance level at 0.9800 is a strong barrier to the bulls. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish From the accumulation territory at 1.5350, this currency trading instrument moved upwards by 300 pips, testing the distribution at 1.5650. From that distribution territory, the trading instrument has been corrected lower by 110 pips. Price could find it difficult going further upwards this week, but the uptrend would be valid as long as the accumulation territory at 1.5350 is not broken to the downside. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral There is no yet a clear direction on USDJPY, for price did not make any large directional movement last week. There can be a serious breakout this week; which would most probably favor the bears, owing to a measure of weakness in USD and a bearish expectation on certain JPY pairs. There are demand levels at 119.00 and 118.50. There are also supply levels at 121.50 and 122.00. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish In spite of the bearish correction that occurred on Friday, there is still a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which would not be violated until price crosses the demand zone at 134.50 to the downside. For the EURJPY to trend upward this week there must be an exceptional stamina in EUR as well as a measure of weakness in JPY – otherwise a serious bearish movement could start before the end of the week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Yes, my profits and losses are ultimately nothing more than a “productivity report.” – Dan Gamza Copyright: Tallinex.com

“I’ve not failed. I’ve just found 10,000 ways that won’t work.” – Thomas Edison “…If trading is only about money, you have very little chance of success.” – Dr. Van. K. Tharp In recent times, some people have questioned the morality of online trading. Obviously, the question comes from lack of real understanding of trading. Trading had long been done before the advent of the Internet: the Internet technology simply made it easier and easily accessible. In other areas of life and business, most things that were done before the advent of the Internet have now gone online. Think about hotel reservations and university applications for examples. There are different types of markets, and Forex is just one of them. For examples, one can speculate on the prices of agricultural products online, and the risky nature of doing that doesn’t make it immoral. It’s clear that trading online isn’t a sin – just as reading religious literature online and joining a service online isn’t a sin. We can now listen to sermons online, which wasn’t possible 50 year ago. Does that make it a sin? With fast advances in science and technology, the ways we do business will forever keep on changing and evolving. A few or several decades ago, trading was done mainly in the pit, but things have changed now. Thanks to the Internet. James Altucher says that when he was 13 years old, the job he’s doing now didn’t exist. His daughter might end up doing a job that didn’t exist when she also was 13 years old. Those who don’t adapt to the changing technological ways of life will pay a heavy price for their myopic views. At the beginning of his book, “Tough Times Never Last but Tough People Do,” Robert H. Schuller (RIP) mentions what happened to his dad as a farmer. All his labor, crops, property and so on, were all destroyed by a violent storm. All his hard labor was in vain. Does that make it immoral to be a farmer? Apart from the fact that there are certain factors beyond the control of the farmer (like weather conditions, poor harvest and economic forces); the farmer can sell at loss or at profit. That doesn’t make it a sin to be a farmer. In fact, farming is a noble profession. Trading is a noble profession too. Robert’s dad continued working as a farmer. Though he seemed totally hopeless and helpless, but there was inner hope in him. What later happened to him? He was already a successful trader when he died. One popular celebrity said she doesn’t believe in marriage. She was married about 32 years ago, and the marriage crashed in less than 2 years. Since then, she’s been preaching against marriage. Certain male and female celebrities also don’t believe in marriage. Does that make it wrong to get married? I know many people whose marriages are super successful. Marriage isn’t compulsory; neither is it evil. A trading legend makes money trading stock and loses money trading futures, options and Forex, and he concludes that one can’t make money from Forex. Another legend that makes money from stocks, options and Forex says they’re excellent markets. What can you conclude from that? It means that the fact that one person is losing in a market doesn’t mean that others can’t make money from the same market. The world-famous Dr. Van K. Tharp has been using what he calls “oneness formula” to transform lives of traders. He mentions something like an inner guide who leads and guides traders to become successful not only in trading, but in other areas of life. According to him, if you are not organized or tend to procrastinate or run away and hide each time you encounter some major psychological issue that impacts your life, then you don’t have a chance at becoming a successful trader. This is what one of the beneficiaries of Van Tharp’s works has to say: “There was a time I identified a negative association about God and trading, and sometimes I felt uncomfortable with the idea of trading. But then, I learned how it was just a belief. Just that. And I can always change any belief I want, and when I see things in a different way, there is no conflict between God and trading.” - J. Ernesto D. M. (Source: Vantharp.com). Anne-Marie Baiynd is a successful trader as well as religious. This is what she’s to say: “I strive for God to be in charge of my life. I live as a speck of dust, flawed, sinful and self-serving by nature. My existence is defined by emptiness without the existence of the All Mighty God. I am accepted and loved, nonetheless, and that creates within me, a great joy and contentment knowing that all my triumphs and successes come from God.” Sir John Templeton, a market wizard, also said: “We are trying to persuade people that no human has yet grasped 1% of what can be known about spiritual realities. So we are encouraging people to start using the same methods of science that have been so productive in other areas, in order to discover spiritual realities.” (Interview with Financial Intelligence Report). Bruce Bower, a hedge funds manager, is a Christian who goes to Church regularly. Joes Ross, one of the most experienced and the most eclectic traders in the word, is a good Christian. There are good Muslims who’re also traders. There are good Hindus, Buddhists, etc. who’re good traders as well. There are proficient traders all over the world who belong to major or minor religions. This is a level playing field. Failure Is a Good Thing Please see the quotes from Thomas Edison and from Dr. Van K. Tharp above. Failure is embedded in success. It’s part of success. It gives you opportunity to do your trading intelligently. Failure helps you to see how not to trade. When you do trading and fail, you learn how not to trade, and you use another method. Even if the new method fails, you try another method… Until you come across a trading approach that works for you. Those hugely successful people that you now envy took risks. They could’ve failed just like many others, but they were fortunate. If they failed, they’d try again and again. Mark Zuckerberg, who thinks of himself as an atheist, says the biggest risk is not taking any risk... In a world that’s changing really quickly, the only strategy that is guaranteed to fail is not taking risks. The fact that you fail or the majority fail in something doesn’t make it sinful. Good trading is a serious business, not gamble. However, it’s not without risk, just like any other things in life. Trading is definitely no sin. Good trading principles aren’t against any other religions. This piece is ended with the quotes below: “I pray to Jesus Christ every day, but that is not a means to handle trading. I ask Him to guide my decisions, and that I would do my investing to glorify Him. Because I use my rules, there is little, if any, stress over trading. My processes are designed to take my emotion out of my infrequent buying and selling.” – David J. Merkel “I love the markets: They are alive, they move, they have spiritual energy. They are an expression of the universe and of course they are my mirror, just as they are your mirror. They are the medium through which I choose to express myself and grow. I am grateful for this and the technology that allows me to participate and trust that the markets will always be there, no matter what change is upon us in the coming years.” - Mercedes Oestermann van Essen (Source: Thebuddhisttrader.com) Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish As it was mentioned in the last forecast, bulls made effort to push EURUSD upwards, and they were successful in doing that. Before this, the market consolidated for the first few days of the last week and then broke upwards, giving the resistance line at 1.1350 a close marking. In case the resistance line is broken to the upside, the next targets for bulls are located at the resistance lines at 1.1450 and 1.1500. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This currency trading instrument moved largely sideways last week, not going above the resistance level at 0.9800 or going below the support level at 0.9650. Bulls made futile attempts to go above the resistance level at 0.9800, and also, bears were unable to dominate the market. Looking more closely at the current price action, it can be seen that the market has started threatening to break down. Nonetheless, the impending breakdown would not be taken serious unless the support level at 0.9600 is breached to the downside. Two factors will determine the direction on this currency trading instrument this week: What happens to EURUSD (which will most probably move further north) and/or the situation around CHF (which could make it strong this month). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD made sincere effort to go upwards last week – with a measure of success. It is possible that the pair would continue moving upwards this week, owing to the presence of a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The distribution territory at 1.5450 has already been tested and it could be broken to the upside. GBPUSD could move further north by at least, 200 pips this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral Apart from a slight upward movement, there was no clear direction on USDJPY last week. Price closed at 120.57 on Friday, in a consolidating mode; and there can be a breakout in any day of this week. Price would either break above the supply level at 121.50 or break below the demand level at 119.50. That is when there will be a directional movement. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This EURJPY cross is now one of the most predictable instruments among the majors which moved in a directional mode last week. The EURJPY cross moved north by 400 pips, now close to the supply zone at 137.00. Given the ongoing weakness in Yen and strength in EUR, there is a high possibility that the uptrend would continue, enabling the supply zone at 139.00 to be attained before the end of this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “I have everything that I need to live well, that is true, but I enjoy the mental stimulation and the challenge [trading offers]. I can see myself still trading when I turn 100.” – Paul Nojin Copyright: Tallinex.com

INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 13 "Losing money is the least of my troubles. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight." - Jesse Livermore Name: Kenneth Heebner Nationality: American Education: MBA, Harvard University Occupation: Funds manager Career: Ken runs Capital Growth Management (CGM), Boston, Massachusetts, which was started in 1990, and part of his funds were performing very well in the year 2005; until recent huge drawdowns, which should’ve be controlled more effectively. Between the year 2000 and the year 2010, the fund enjoyed a cumulative growth of 290.2%, when compared to the S&P 500's 16.4%. He’s really a good speculator who respects his own hunches and stays away from what he doesn’t understand. Insights: 1. Ken was once ranked No. 1 stock picker in USA, but recently his predictions were less accurate and his funds also suffered. Nevertheless, he doesn’t lose his love for the markets. Good traders remain passionate about trading in good and bad times. 2. There’s one thing that’s unsavory about Ken, especially when compared to Michael Platt. Ken isn’t that good at risk management because the losses he suffers when he’s wrong are always substantial. For example, CGM Focus lost 48 percent in 2008 as the global recession hurt commodity prices and a move into beaten-down financial stocks proved premature. You can agree that someone who losses less than 5% in bad trades is better than someone who loses 35% in bad trades. Why would Ken’s fund plunge from $10.3 billion to $1.9 billion? It’s because he wasn’t trading defensively. It’s better to trade not to lose money, instead of trading to make money. That’s a defensive form of trading. Ken himself acknowledged that he’d have done better if he’d been more defensive. However, he always bounces back with time, which is the most important aspect of all – the ability to survive losing streaks and recover losses. 3. Based on his quote at the end of this piece, he doesn’t go with the crowd (for they tend to be wrong always). He’s like a countertrend trader. 4. Trading, for serious traders, should be a passion of a lifetime. At a relatively old age (71), Ken’s still passionate about trading. Unlike John Arnold, who retired from active trading at the age of 38, Ken doesn’t show any intention to retire. That’s the kind of freedom trading offers: you choose when to retire. 5. When you’re really good, you’ll be a role model to some great traders. One great trader has other role models who’re great traders as well; and the other way round. Conclusion: James Altucher says something which is true of trading. He says, with art, you have to deal with perfection. Nobody is perfect. For everyone who loves singing, there is always someone who sings better. For everyone who draws, there is always someone who draws better. You can't make art if you are trying to be perfect." This is also true of trading. This piece is ended with a quote from Ken: "I am completely outside the mainstream. I see the mainstream in the distance." Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Though EURUSD consolidated in the most part of last week, the bias on the market is bearish, for bullish pressure has seriously lost steam. The pair has consolidated to the downside and it might reach the support lines at 1.1100 and 1.1050. Nonetheless, bulls will make desperate effort to push the pair higher this week, and there is a high probability that their effort may yield some result. Any movement above the resistance line at 1.1350 would indicate that bulls have achieved their aim. Should EUR gain lots of stamina this week, the effect would be noticed on other EUR pairs. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF went up by 150 pips last week, running into a barrier at a resistance level of 0.9750. Bulls made several abortive attempts to break that barrier before the market closed on Friday. For the bullish bias to continue making sense, the barrier at 0.9750 must be overcome. That mean price would need to target the resistance levels at 0.9800 and 0.9850. On this pair, there could be two possible obstacles to bulls’ interests: (1) Any rally on EURUSD could send USDCHF south. (2) In case CHF gains enough strength (which is possible this month), USDCHF would experience some difficulties going forward. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Since August 25, this market has dropped by 630 pips, following a test of the distribution territory at 1.5800. Price is now close to the accumulation territory at 1.5150; plus it could even reach other accumulation territories at 1.5100 and 1.5050. However, the market looks overbought, and while the aforementioned accumulation territories could be reached, a serious rally would not be a surprise (if it happens) this week. It should be noted that movements on GBPUSD (and other GBP pairs) would be significant this month, whether they go up or down. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY went down by over 230 pips last week, closing at 118.97 on Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market – the bearish trend ought to continue. This week, price could attain the demand levels at 118.50 and 118.00, providing that JPY is able to maintain its current strength versus USD; otherwise there could be a bullish breakout. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish There was a strong bearish movement on this cross last week. From the supply zone at 136.00, price went down to reach the demand zone at 132.50. This is a movement of 350 pips. The bearish movement looks overextended, though there could be more bearish movement this week. On the other hand, there is also a possibility of a strong breakout to the upside before the end of the week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “When you make an unshakable commitment to a way of life, you put yourself way ahead of most others in the race for success. Why? Because most people have a natural tendency to overestimate what they can achieve in the short run and underestimate what they can accomplish over the long haul. They think they have made a commitment, but when they run into difficulty, they lose steam or quit. Most people get interested in trading but few make a real commitment. The difference between interest and commitment is the will not to give up. When you truly commit to something, you have no alternative but success. Getting interested will get you started, but commitment gets you to the finish line.” - Mark Minervini, a trading legend (Source: Tradersonline-mag.com) Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Last week witnessed the greatest volatility in the markets since January 15, 2015. Between August 19 – 24, price went upwards by 680 pips, topping at the resistance line of 1.1700. Immediately the resistance line was tested, price began to retrace steadily and gradually. From the weekly high of 1.1700, price has gone downwards by 520 pips; thereby threatening the recent bullish bias. The threat to the bullish bias is so serious that a movement below the support line at 1.1100 would ultimately result in a bearish outlook. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish From August 19 – 24, this pair plunged by 500 pips in what can be called the biggest USDCHF move in the last few months. From August 25 till now, price has nevertheless, rallied by over 300 pips, which is another threat to the existing bearish outlook on the market. In case price goes above the resistance level at 0.9700, things would turn cleanly bullish; whereas failure to do that could strengthen the existing bearish outlook. Since the outlook on CHF is bearish for the month of September, bulls would be having some difficulties pushing USDCHF upwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish When the hope of a weak GBPUSD was almost dashed for the month of August 2015, the pair eventually became weak. This formerly trudging pair managed to test the distribution territory at 1.5800 before bulls lost all their power. From that distribution territory, price nosedived by 450 pips, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.5350. This means that bears are the overall winners on GBPUSD in the month of August, since their action overturned all the bullish gains for the month. In September, we will see very serious volatility on GBPUSD (and of course on all GBP pairs), coupled with fast bearish and bullish movements. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The expectation of a bearish USDJPY pair for the month of August eventually materialized; and so was the bearish outlook on some other JPY pairs. From August 19 – 24, price plummeted by 800 pips, going briefly below the demand level at 116.50. Since then, price has been making a noteworthy bullish recovery - a movement of 500 pips. Should the price move further upwards by another 200 pips this week, the bearish outlook would be rendered ineffectual. However, an upward movement of 200 pips could be difficult to achieve because it is expected that most JPY pairs would be bearish for most of the time in the month of September (with a few exceptions); and USDJPY would not be different. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Owing to the strength in Yen, which was already anticipated, EURJPY fell sharply, resulting in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern. Though there is an ongoing struggle between bull and bear, price was able to attain the demand zone at 135.50 last week, in a downward movement of 300 pips. The demand zone at 135.50 was battered several times without being permanently penetrated. That demand zone ought to be breached this week or next so that the bearish bias can continue to make sense. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “The market provides the greatest opportunity on earth for financial reward. It also teaches great lessons… It is the greatest game on earth.” – Mark Minervini (a trading legend)

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish From the support line at 1.1050, this pair went upward by 330 pips, going above the support line at 1.1350. EUR is now one of the strongest among the majors (and so is CHF) and this has reflected on most EUR pairs. The next targets for EURUSD are now at the resistance lines of 1.1400 and 1.1450, which could be breached easily with an ongoing bullish pressure in the market. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This is a bear market. The massive bearish breakout that was seen last week has resulted in an end to the recent sideways movement in the market. The weakness in USD and the strength in CHF, coupled with the fact that this pair has to trade in the opposite direction to the strong EURUSD, have contributed to the current tailspin. Price dived by 300 pips last week, and it is now close to the support level at 0.9450. With a continuation of the current situation, bears may be able to attain another support level at 0.9300 this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBP may be weak somewhere else (as seen on GBPCHF and GBPJPY), but it is not weak against USD. Last week, GBPUSD managed to go above the stubborn accumulation territory at 1.5650. Bulls tried to push the price further upwards, but bears came in against them and started their bearish efforts. Another serious fighting is taking place around an accumulation territory at 1.5700, but the bulls must eventually win for the current bullish outlook to continue being logical. The hope of a weak GBPUSD has been dashed for this month, because stubborn distribution territories, if breached, become stubborn accumulation territories (and the other way round). After all, GBPUSD is positively correlated with EURUSD. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Following the recent equilibrium phase – which lasted for several weeks – USDJPY finally broke south in a predictable manner. A weak USDJPY has long been anticipated; and with the fact that bulls have failed to push price significantly northward, the current bearish plunge is no wonder. In a strong trending market like this, demand (and supply) levels would be easily cut through; just like a hot knife through butter. Further southward movement is anticipated this week, though bulls may make some faint effort to reverse the trend. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The EURJPY cross initially went down by 100 pips last week, but the movement was later reversed and price went vividly upwards. The next point of attack is the supply zone at 139.00. Price is very close to that supply zone and it may be breached to the upside. The bullish bias will exist for as long as EUR is strong. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “If you are just starting out, you should trade with real money as soon as possible… Do not fool yourself into a false sense of reality. Get accustomed to trading for real because that is what you are going to have to do to make real money.” – Mark Minervini (a legendary trader)

“However, it is pleasant to win over the long term. Contrary to popular opinion, losses are part of winning. Take sports for example.” – Markham Gross A drawdown is the peak-to-trough decline during a specific record period of an investment, fund or commodity. A drawdown is usually quoted as the percentage between the peak and the trough. A drawdown is measured from the time a retrenchment begins to when a new high is reached. This method is used because a valley can't be measured until a new high occurs. Once the new high is reached, the percentage change from the old high to the smallest trough is recorded (definition source: Investopedia.com). As you can see, drawdowns (or roll-downs) are periods when you experience losses and your account goes down. If you open an account with $10, 000 and it drops to $9,200, then you experience a drawdown of 8%. Causes of Drawdowns Let’s put the issue of trading with no stops and high risk aside. Let’s imagine someone is using a good strategy that makes him cut his loss at 50 pips and runs a profit until it reaches 200 pips. That’s a good trading idea which makes money when currency pairs trend nicely. Nevertheless, when a period of drawdowns comes, more stops would be triggered and take profit levels would hardly be reached. The few take profit levels that are reached would be too few to recover the too many stops that are triggered. You open many a trade and it moves in your favor by a few or several pips and then turns negative, hitting your stop. For days, weeks, or months, false breakouts wouldn’t be a curiosity and sustained trending movement would be scarce. Trading ideas that let profits run are the best, but they generally suffer when the markets enter equilibrium phases. As in real life, doing the right things doesn’t always make you appear smart. In fact, you may sometimes look stupid by doing the right things. A trader that uses a stop may appear stupid when they are stopped out on a trade that eventually reverses and turns positive. A trader may appear stupid when a position they are trying to ride fails to meet its target, turning from positivity to negativity. But in the end, we’ll reap the benefits of doing the rights things. Soon, a time would come when the situation will change and the person will recover the losses within days, weeks or months. Treacherous Statistics Look at the long-term results of the strategies below: Strategy A: Growth: 343.80% Drawdown: 37.45% Monthly: 19.09% Strategy B: Growth: 119.40 Drawdown: 22.08% Monthly: 10.51% Strategy C: Growth: 12.04% Drawdown: 11.16% Monthly: 0.49% You can see that the strategies above have made nice profits in the long run, but not without roll-downs. Strategy A has earned a profit of 343.80% over the years, but it also went thru periods of losses amounting to 37.45%. The users of the strategies obviously deal with the roll-downs successfully; otherwise they’d have disappeared. One marketer was recently creating hype that he’d a strategy that could turn $500 into a growing monthly income. As you know, the job of marketers is to emphasize the bright side of what they sell, while glossing over the dark side. It’s like when a religious preacher is telling people nice things that will happen to them if they join her/his religion and become responsible, without telling them the reality that religious people aren’t also immune from suffering. For instance, when an earthquake occurs, it doesn’t avoid the religious people in the region. I never tried that hyped strategy – though I’ve tested over 250 strategies in my entire career. There’s no perfect strategy and there won’t be one. All excellent trading strategies experience drawdowns. All super traders experience drawdowns, albeit victoriously. Sadly, the subject of drawdowns is the least mentioned in the trading industry, and there’s only scanty literature about the subject, in spite of the fact that it’s one of the most important topics in trading. Drawdowns must be experienced from time to time by all traders irrespective of age, intelligence, expertise, years of experience, risk control ability and strategies. This is where majority of traders fail. Your ability to deal with drawdowns triumphantly is the greatest determinant of the end game and your ability to enjoy a long-lasting career. The smaller a loss is, the easier it’s to recover. The bigger a loss is, the more difficult it’s to recover. There are periods when you’ll make money; there are periods when you’ll lose money, and there are periods when your performance would be flat (you’ll never go up or down). There’s no way around this fact. There is no way around the fact that you must sustain losses that you must eventually recover. Flat and drawdown period may even be longer than you expect. Switching strategies isn’t the way out. Can a rolling stone gather any moss? That’s why it’s unrealistic to set a weekly or monthly target in a world in which you can’t really predict the future. That’s why it’s realistic to open a trade only after you’ve imagined the worst-case scenario. With that kind of mindset, you’ll realize the folly of not using stops and the folly of trading with large lot sizes. However, most of us have serious psychological and emotional problems. One of the most frustrating things is to keep on trading when you keep on making losses. Your hope of a monthly income would be dashed and your courage will evaporate. The frustration would even become more intense, especially if you live in a country where you’ve to generate your own electricity and fuel is extremely scarce and expensive. What Good Traders Experience I remember what happened to me in the year 2011. I was making good profits for about 4 months: up to 30% (6000 pips). Then suddenly, the market conditions change and I was having losses after losses. I kept on managing my risk, being faithful to the system I used. The losing periods lasted for about 3 months and I went down from 30% pips to 15%, and suddenly… the market conditions became favorable again and I finished that year with 49% profits. In a typical year, you can make 10% in January and 6% in February. You can make 3% in March and lose 9% in April. You can lose 4.5% in May and lose additional 5% in June. You can gain 4% in July and lose 4% in August. You can gain 11% in September and gain another 6.5% in October. You can gain15% in November and finish December with another 2.5%. How much would the trader end up with in the year? This is the reality of trading, which you must accept or go do something else. Many so called Forex traders are gamblers who think they’re good. They lose hugely or earn margin calls during drawdowns. Anton Kreil says you will have about 3 months (or more or less) in a year in which you’ll experience drawdowns no matter what you do. How do you explain this to your investors? How do you explain this to your family? When you limit a loss, you accept the fact that it won’t have any major impact on your portfolio anytime, no matter how terrible the situation may be. You can check your account history or past trading results in order to get comfort, knowing full well that your system will soon start working again because it worked in the past. You’ll be encouraged to keep on taking new signals (for you don’t know the ones that would win and recover your losses), maintaining discipline and calm. To be a permanently victorious trader, you must control your loss and limit your roll-downs. It may be emotionally satisfactory to refuse to accept a mistake and ignore the use of stops, and the temptation to do silly things will balloon. In most cases, prices may go back to your entry points after harrowing periods of waiting and hope, which may be longer than normal. There’ll also be cases in which the hopes would be dashed as prices refuse to come back in your favor, going further and further against you instead. All the profits plus the capital you’ve would vanish. All market veterans acknowledge that the importance of loss control can’t be emphasized enough, because that’s the reason why over 95% of traders can’t be successful as traders. On Trade2win.com, Barjon says… Perhaps all this makes it sound as though our trader’s reasoning will be spot on or that he is a fortune teller who can foresee the future. There is not such a trader. All trading is about making assumptions based on experience of what has happened in similar circumstances in the past. Those assumptions may be right or they may be wrong and from the business perspective the aim is to gain the necessary advantage when they are right and limit the damage when they are not. This piece is ended by the quotes below: “Our worst case scenario for the basic strategy is where the trader can lose 70 per cent of the time with a reward-risk ratio of 3:1. With these statistics the trader can still be consistently profitable. The winners take care of the losers.” – Manesh Patel “The difference between top-notch winning traders and those who barely get by is the attitude they take toward losses. Trading is a tough business where setbacks and losses are commonplace. If you aren't careful, you can feel beaten, knocked down, and afraid to get back up. It may be difficult at times, but it is often necessary to forget about the past.” – Joe Ross

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair rose by 150 pips last week, rising from the support line at 1.0950 and reaching the resistance line at 1.1200. Price has really met a challenge at the resistance line at 1.1200, but it would need to go above the resistance line so that the bullish journey can continue. There are support lines at 1.1050 and 1.1000: the bullish outlook would make sense as long as the support lines are not breached to the downside. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish In recent times, both USDCHF and EURUSD are making bullish efforts. This is unusual because the pairs ought to go in separate ways (and they would soon do so). After testing the resistance level at 0.9900, USDCHF got corrected by 200 pips, testing the support level at 0.9700. However, this does not render the recent bullish bias invalid. The pair is now making some effort to go upwards and this week would see the result of that effort. The recent bullish bias could only be rendered useless in case the support level 0.9650 is breached to the downside. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral Cable remains highly volatile; characterized by large upswings and downswings in the market. There is no clear directional bias on the market because bulls and bears enjoy only transitory victories. There is an accumulation territory at 1.5450 and there is a distribution territory at 1.5650, which is an adamant distribution territory indeed because it has rejected all bullish effort for the past several weeks. Since the expectation for GBP is bearish for this month, things would become really bearish when the accumulation territory at 1.5450 is broken to the downside. On the other hand, a break above the distribution territory at 1.5650 would mean the bearish expectation may not materialize this month. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral Based on the current price action, it can be said that USDJPY has hitherto defied gravity. Occasional bearish corrections are quickly followed by rally attempts – and all these are not even significant. This week, it would be intriguing to watch what would happen to this currency trading instrument. A movement below the demand level at 123.50 would result in a ‘sell’ signal while a movement above the supply level at 125.50 would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross rallied massively last week, closing at 138.11 on Friday, August 14, 2015 (just above the demand zone at 138.00). While the cross may journey further northwards this week, that would not rule out the possibility of a bearish plunge. The cross would be going upwards only as long as EUR is stronger than JPY. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “After playing in front of large football crowds and having the spotlight on me, I really enjoy having my own destiny in my hands now. I miss being as physically fit as I used to be, and the fun times with the other players, but I also like the freedom of trading. As a professional sportsman you have no freedom. But in my second career I have all the freedom I need, and that is through trading.” – Lee Stanford (Source: Tradersonline-mag.com)