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analyst75

Market Wizard
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Everything posted by analyst75

  1. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish EURUSD moved upwards by 250 pips last week, testing the resistance line at 1.1400. That resistance line has proven to be an obstacle to bulls because price was unable to close above it last week (in spite of forays into it). Price might be able to go above the resistance line eventually, but it might not be able to go far north. There is a possibility that this pair would experience a large pullback this week, which might enable it to reach the support lines at 1.1300 and 1.1250. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument went down 200 pips last week, closing below the resistance level at 0.9600. The support levels at 0.9550 and 0.9500 could be breached this week. However, there might be a rally – which would be significant enough to threaten the current bearish bias. In case price moves above the resistance level at 0.9850, it would result in a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish From Monday to Wednesday, Cable went upwards by 330 pips, reaching the distribution territory at 1.4450. Bears effected further movement at that territory, causing the market to experience a bearish correction of 250 pips. The ongoing bearish correction might make price further downwards by 100 – 200 pips, but there would soon be an exponential rally in the market, which would eventually render the current bearish outlook invalid. The outlook on GBP is bright for the month of April, and as a result of this, we would see GBP gaining strength versus other major currencies. Wild fluctuations with other major currencies like AUD and NZD would be witnessed. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish There is a currently a “sell” signal in this market, owing to a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in it. Price closed below the supply level at 112.00, going towards the demand levels at 111.50 and 111.00. Long trades do not make sense in this market, until there is a clean indication of bulls’ hegemony, which would only be brought about by serious weakness in Yen. The movement for this month would mostly be bearish. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Bulls were able to push this popular cross to the upside until it reached the supply zone at 128.00. There has been a shallow pullback around that zone, causing the cross to close at 127.24 on April 1, 2016. Further bullish movement is possible this week, though there could be another bearish run before the end of the month. JPY pairs are expected to continue moving upwards this week (and perhaps, next week), but they would begin to go south before the end of the month. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Most traders… will tell you their success came from finding the approach that best suits them and pushing through it to get better and better.” – Elitetrader Copyright: Tallinex.com
  2. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish As expected, this pair got corrected lower last week, moving downward by 120 pips before closing while consolidating. The support line at 1.1150 has been tested and it would be breached to the downside this week. EUR would be seen weakening against major currencies before the end of this month, except in the case of EURJPY (making the bias on the market go bearish). Therefore, the support lines at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000 are vulnerable this week and next. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF moved higher by 100 pips last week, closing above the support level at 0.9750. It might be possible for USDCHF to go upwards this week, because further bearish movement on EURUSD could help it to rally. In addition, CHF itself has a probability of becoming weak soon (CHF could be weak versus other majors, save CHFJPY). Thus the resistance levels at 0.9800, 0.9850 and 0.9900 could be attained this week or next. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument went south by roughly 400 pips last week, almost reaching the accumulation territory at 1.4050. Although there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, bulls would be seen trying to push up the price this week, with a measure of success. There is an accumulation territory at 1.4000, which would try to hinder further bearish journey. When price turns and goes upwards, the distribution territories at 1.4200, 1.4250 and 1.4300 could be attained this week or next. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY was seen making bullish effort throughout last week. However, the bullish effort was not significant enough to bring about a change in the dominant bias. It is expected that the pair would continue moving upwards this week, owing to a bullish expectation on JPY pairs. USDJPY would move upwards by a minimum of 100 pips during the week, causing a bullish bias to form in the market. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This cross consolidated throughout last week, neither going below the demand zone at 125.00 nor going above the supply zone at 126.50. A breakout is imminent this week, which would most possibly favor bulls. A closer look at the market shows that the bulls are still determined to effect a rally here, which could make price to reach the supply zones at 127.00 and 127.50. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “It's useful to remember that you may not win on any single trade, but after a series of trades you will have enough winners to make a profit in the long run.” - Andy Jordan Copyright: Tallinex.com
  3. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish From Monday till Wednesday, this pair moved south. Price broke upwards on Wednesday as it rose significantly by 280 pips that day and on Thursday. On Friday, price got corrected lower a bit, closing at 1.1269. However, the outlook on EUR is bearish for this week, and bulls would experience serious difficulties in pushing price further upwards. This weakness could also be witnessed on other EUR pair like EURCAD and EURNZD. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Last week, USDCHF took a serious battering as prognosticated, given what also happened to USDCAD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, AUDUSD, etc. After consolidating from Monday to Wednesday, price dropped like a stone on Wednesday and Thursday, testing the support level at 0.9650. While further southward moved is not ruled out, the situation could change this week, especially in the case of EURUSD, for USDCHF might rally considerably when EURUSD trends downwards seriously. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Cable was subjected to strong movements last week. From Monday to Wednesday, price dipped by 320 pips, later to rise on the same day. Within Wednesday and Thursday, price went upwards 440 pips. But bulls have met a stubborn opposition at the distribution territory of 1.4500; they could not push the price beyond that accumulation territory. Should bulls succeed in pushing price beyond 1.4500, the next targets would be the distribution territories at 1.4550 and 1.4600. There are also probabilities of pullbacks along the way. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY, which was quite choppy in the last few weeks, gave in to gravity last week. Price dropped by 300 pips, ramming into the demand level at 111.00. Although there is a clean Bearing Confirmation Pattern in the market, price could rally this week. After all, price has been unable to close below the demand level at 110.00 as it bounced off that level. JPY pairs are expected to rally this week, and USDJPY may not be an exception. So it is rational to assume that the bearish journey that occurred last week simply paved way for the bullish journey that could occur this week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross consolidated throughout last week, not moving significantly upwards or downwards. This bullish outlook is still somewhat valid despite the ongoing consolidation, though a breakout is imminent this week. When a breakout occurs, it would most probably favor bulls, because the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for this week. Traders are advised not to trade against JPY pairs this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “We hope your January through February proves to be profitable. After one more month, March, you can evaluate your quarterly trades to make adjustments. If adjustments are necessary, make sure that they align with your trading plans.” – Tradingeducators Copyright: Tallinex.com
  4. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair consolidated from Monday to Wednesday, breaking out northward on Thursday (March 10, 2016). On that day, price first spiked downwards and then rallied significantly, testing the resistance line at 1.1200. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and it is possible that the price would continue going northwards this week, going above the resistance line at 1.1200, and testing another resistance lines at 1.1250 and 1.1300. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF was merely consolidating between the support level at 0.9900 and the resistance level at 1.0000. On Thursday, the market performed a false breakout above the resistance level at 1.0000 and later trended strongly downwards. This has led to a “sell” signal in the market, which might continue this week. USD will be facing challenges from some major pairs, like EUR and GBP (even NZD will rally this week, for it would be strong versus other currencies). So USD is in for a serious battering this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish As it was mentioned last week, this currency trading instrument rallied, testing the distribution territory at 1.4400 and closing at 1.4383 on Friday. Price is supposed to continue going upwards this week, targeting the distribution territories at 1.4450 and 1.4500. Price might even move beyond these distribution territories, but not without attacks from bears, who would show enough desperation in dragging price south. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral USDJPY went through a turbulent phase within March 7 and 11, with no clear victory between bull and bear. On Monday and Tuesday, price moved downwards. On Wednesday, it moved upwards, while Thursday was full of morbid threats from bears. Bulls dared the bears’ threats on Friday, managing to push price upwards slightly on Friday. What will happen next? The current price action shows that price could continue moving upwards from here, although persistent weakness in USD could cause the anticipated bullish movement to be somewhat limited. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross consolidated on Monday, moved downwards on Tuesday and began to rally Wednesday. In fact, the rally that happened on Wednesday took the cross upwards by over 400 pips, as its price tested the supply zone at 127.00. Bulls are still showing willingness to push the cross further north; plus there is a bullish signal in the market. The potential targets for the week are located at 127.50 and 128.00. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Effective traders are willing to get out of their comfort zones and try new things. I know it might be scary to go into the unknown, but to have more in life, you must take smart risks.” – Louise Bedford Copyrigght: Tallinex.com
  5. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish As it was mentioned in the last forecast, EURUSD has been making some bullish attempt, which, however, has not been significant enough to render the recent bearish bias invalid. Bears pushed price downwards, but met a stiff rejection at the support line of 1.0850. Price then moved sideways and later broke upwards on Thursday, trending upwards by at least 160 pips. Since it is expected that the bullish attempt would continue this week, price could reach the resistance lines at 1.1050 and 1.1100 in the week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral USDCHF merely moved sideways throughout last week, with no directional journey to the upside or to the downside. The sideways movement was generally between the support level at 0.9900 and the resistance level at 1.0000. Nevertheless, there is going to be a breakout this week, which would most probably favor sellers, because this pair would continue to be influenced by gravity as long as EURUSD is making bullish attempt. The support level at 0.9800 could thus be tested this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The bias on Cable is now bullish. Throughout last week, Cable made a perpetual journey to the north, going upwards by 400 pips and almost testing the distribution territory at 1.4250 (after price started going upward from the accumulation territory at 1.3850 on Monday). There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and it is much more likely that Cable would go upwards by at least, additional 200 pips this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral Unlike most other JPY pairs, which traded upwards last week, USDJPY simply moved sideways. This is because USD is not strong enough to take advantage of the weak JPY (as other pairs like AUDJPY and NZDJPY have done). In fact, we can see that USD is weak versus other major pairs (like AUDUSD, NZDUSD, GBPUSD, etc.). This week, there is a probability that USDJPY would continue moving sideways or even consolidate to the downside, for there may not be a significant rally here as long as USD is weak. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross traded downwards on Monday, going briefly below the demand zone at 122.50 on Tuesday and then starting a bullish journey on the same day (March 1, 2016), which saw a gain of almost 450 pips at the end of that week. The supply zone at 125.50 has already been tested and it would be breached to the upside as bullish continues to push price upwards. The supply levels at 126.00 and 126.50 are potential targets for bulls this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “How about your trading? What reward/risk ratio do you think is acceptable on your trades? Do you have a defined targeted ratio before you enter a position and an acceptable effective ratio resulting from your trades? Do you manage your current reward risk ratio on open positions? Developing a strong and deeper understanding of your reward to risk management can be a great edge and a path to trading mastery.” - Sam Eder (Source: Vantharp.com) Copyright: Tallinex.com
  6. GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Gold has been going upwards since the beginning of this year, with first 7 trading days in February being quite significant as far as the bullish journey was concerned. Price topped at 1263.13 on February 11, 2016. On the daily chart, a Golden Cross had already taken place in early February; and from the middle of that month till the end, price was very volatile as bears battled bulls for a change in the trend. However, bulls have been able to keep the “buy” signal intact as bearish corrections offered opportunities to join the bullish trend. This bullish bias would be valid as long as price does not cross the EMA 200 to the downside on the daily chart. The Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart remains intact: Price could test the supply levels at 1270.00, 1290.00 and 1310.00 within March and April 2016. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Silver traded sideways in January and broke northward in February, for Gold acted as a catalyst that brought about a serious northward movement on it (as it was mentioned in the last monthly technical review on Silver). Silver reached a high of 15.9150 on February 11 and began to consolidate to the downside after that. Further consolidation for another 10 trading days could force the market to enter a neutral phase in the medium term, while a movement below the demand zone at 14.0000 might lead to a bearish signal. However, there could be a resumption of the bullish trend, especially if Gold holds out its bullishness for the next several trading days. Copyright: Tallinex.com
  7. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD traded lower on Monday, and then moved sideways until Friday, when it traded further southward, closing at 1.0931. Altogether, price moved downwards close to 200 pips, while the outlook on the market is bearish. There are support lines at 1.0900 and 1.0850, which would attempt to challenge more bearish movement. This week, EURUSD may be seen making attempts to rally, which might become serious in case bulls are determined enough. In fact, all major pairs would been seen making short-term significant swings in the month of March. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral This pair merely traded sideways last week, meandering its way between the support level at 0.9850 and the resistance level at 1.0000. There is going to be a break above that resistance level or below that support level this week, although a break below the support level is more likely, because the resistance level at 1.0000 is a great barrier and because EURUSD could be seen making some bullish attempt this week. Whatever happens this week should put an end to the current neutral bias on the market. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD dropped over 430 pips last week, almost testing the accumulation territory at 1.3850. Further bearish movement is possible this week and next week: Upwards bounces should be taken as short-selling opportunities. Just as it was predicted at the beginning of February 2016, GBP pairs are trending significantly downwards and they would remain under bearish pressure. However, around the end of March, GBP pairs would start rallying significantly. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish In the middle of last week, this currency trading instrument started a bullish correction that has actually become a threat to the recent bearish outlook on the market. This trading instrument should continue going further upwards this week, until the recent bearish outlook is rendered completely invalid. On timeframes lower than the 4-hour chart, there are already bullish signals. The bullish correction is also visible on other JPY pairs, which would most probably be seen making commendable bullish efforts this week and next. The outlook on JPY pairs is bright for the month of March. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish EUR/JPY cross moved lower last week, reaching the demand zone at 122.50 on Wednesday, February 24, 2016. Since then, price has gone up more than 200 pips – a sort of bullish correction that is also visible on other JPY pairs. Further northward movement of 250 pips would lead to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market; otherwise price could test the demand zone at 122.50 again, owing to bearish reprisals (though it is unlikely that price would go below that demand zone). This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “I love the lifestyle of being a trader. I get to run my own business and set my own schedule. They say you should do what you love, and this is exactly what I love. What is there not to love? I wake up, take a few trades during the day, and I'm done! I can move on and enjoy the rest of my day. The best part of this life for me is that it allows me more time to spend with my children. I would not have this flexibility if I worked an 80-hour week in corporate America.” - Richard Mazur (Source: Collective2) Copyright: Tallinex.com
  8. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair went slightly downwards on Monday and moved sideways for the rest of the week. A closer look at the chart revealed a consolidation to the downside, which threatens the recent bullish bias. For the bias not to turn bearish, bulls must prevent bears from pushing price below the support line at 1.1000. In case bulls succeed in doing this, we may see the price going upwards this week, thereby ending the threat to the recent bullish bias. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF went up 170 pips last week, but it met a strong opposition at the resistance level of 0.9950. Price was unable to go above that resistance level in spite of several attempts to breach it. This week, the movement of USDCHF would be largely determined by whatever happens to EURUSD. USDCHF may experience great difficulty in breaking the resistance level at 1.0000 to the upside (an event that could end the current bearish bias in the market). Failure to do this could reinforce the bearish bias, which is currently under threat from bulls. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral From the high of Monday, Cable dropped by 280 pips, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.4250 on Wednesday, February 17, 2016. The accumulation territory at 1.4250 has proven to be a recalcitrant barrier to bears, for the price could not go below it in spite of forays into it, and this has forced Cable into a neutral phase. The market ended on Friday with a strong upward bounce, which might be a short selling opportunity unless the distribution territories at 1.4550 and 1.4600 are overcome. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This market rallied 120 pips on Monday – resulting in a better entry price for sellers. From the high of Tuesday (114.87), price dropped by 240 pips, to close at 112.64 on Friday. There is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which indicates the possibility of price going further south, reaching the demand levels at 111.50 and 111.00. The chances of JPY pairs rallying significantly this month are now slim. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish In the context of a downtrend, EURJPY cross went upwards on Monday and started coming down from the high of Tuesday. From Tuesday, price came down gradually by 300 pips, reaching the demand zone at 125.00 on Friday. There is an ongoing bearish signal on this cross, which may enable it to move further southward by at least, 200 pips this week, reaching the demand zones at 124.50 and 123.50. Only a sudden weakness in the Yen would cause this cross to skyrocket. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “As you fully understand “your trading game” and know how the markets are functioning, you greatly increase your probability of success. Most of all, you will have “fun” trading — independent of winning or losing. If you do not enjoy yourself trading, then you are probably not trading the right systems – ones that fit you.” - Gabriel Grammatidis Copyright: Tallinex.com
  9. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish EURUSD moved upwards by 230 pips last week, topping at the resistance line of 1.1350, before the current bearish correction. From that resistance line, price got corrected by 100 pips while the bias on the market remains bullish. There is a need for price to go above that resistance line this week, aiming for other resistance lines at 1.1400 and 1.1450. Otherwise, bears might overcome bulls and manage to push price further south. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair has proven to be one of the strongest trending among the majors. Price dropped by roughly 260 pips last week, moving briefly below the support level at 0.9700. Then price turned upwards, making a shallow bullish effort. The bullish effort cannot render the current bearish bias invalid unless price goes above the resistance levels at 0.9900 and 1.0000, which is not an easy task, given the ongoing bearish sentiment in the market. USDCHF is suffering from all-round attacks, for EURUSD is up, causing USDCHF to remain under pressure, and CHF itself is strong (see CHF pairs). Eventually, the shallow bullish effort in the market might turn out to be another shallow short-selling opportunity. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Cable merely consolidated throughout last week, in the context of a medium-term uptrend. The presence of bulls is still visible in the market, though it is possible for them to be subdued by bears any time. A movement above the distribution territories at 1.4600 and 1.4650 would reinforce the current bullish effort, while a movement below the accumulation territories at 1.4350 and 1.4300 would invalidate it. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The price has gone down by 600 pips this week, and it has gone down by 1000 pips since January 29, 2016. The demand level at 111.50 was tried before the upward bounce that happened on Friday, February 12, 2016. The upward bounce is another opportunity to go short while the bearish trend lasts. The bias on JPY pairs is currently bearish, although that does not rule out the possibility of them rallying before the end of this month. . EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross experienced a large pullback last week, going down by 450 pips and reaching the demand zone at 126.00. Thus time around the stamina in EUR has been unable to cause it to withstand the assault from JPY (as it is true of some other EUR pairs). It is logical to assume further southerly movement in the market, due to a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Along the way, upward bounces might be ignored as long as it is clear that bears are in control. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Almost all of my trading is mechanical — 100% based on rules I have tested and found to be valid. I tend to ignore news of the day, fundamental information and adverse “big picture” scenarios because these do not impact my systems greatly. Sometimes, these factors affect my results in the short term, but over the long term, the systems have a positive expectancy.” - Kevin J. Davey Copyright: Tallinex.com
  10. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair was engaged in a smooth bullish run last week, moving upwards 420 pips before the bearish retracement that was seen on Friday (February 5, 2016). The bearish retracement could be taken as a sale in the context of an uptrend, for the uptrend might continue this week. As long as price is above the support line at 1.0950, the bullish bias cannot be threatened. The resistance lines at 1.1250 and 1.1300 are the potential targets for bulls this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Owing to the perceived weakness in USD, USDCHF dropped 340 pips last week, ending the recent bullish outlook on the market. The support level at 0.9900 was tried, before the current upward bounce, which is, however, shallow. That support level at 0.9900 could be retried again and get breached to the downside, as price possibly attains the support levels at 0.9850 and 0.9800 this week. It must be noted that the market is now below the psychological level at 1.0000; so it might be difficult for bulls to effect any bullish changes that would take the price above that level. In case the psychological level at 1.0000 is broken to the upside, then a rally that would eventually threaten the bearish bias might begin. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish From the low of January 29, 2016, Cable rose steeply, testing the distribution territory at 1.4650 on Thursday, February 4, 2016. From that distribution territory, price has come down by 200 pips, on the following day. That correction is a proof of the vulnerability of the ongoing strength in Sterling, for the outlook on GBP pairs remains bearish for this month. While GBP is strong versus USD, it is weak against certain other currencies, for instance, GBPJPY, GBPCHF, EURGBP, etc. The market might resume a rally this week, albeit further bearish correction of another 200 pips would put an end to the current bullish outlook. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The sudden and unexpected weakness of this currency trading instrument was partly due to the weakness of USD. On January 29, 2016, price touched the supply level at 121.50 and dropped 500 pips in the following week, which has resulted in an undisputed Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Long trades are not currently logical until there is a clear indication that bulls have taken control again. Right now, bears are the ones in control. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Unlike other JPY pairs (e.g. NZDJPY, AUDJPY, etc.), EURJPY did not come down significantly because of the strength in EUR itself. Last week, price came down only by 160 pips – a movement that was not strong enough to invalidate the bullish bias on the market. Only a movement below the demand zone at 128.50 would put an end to the extant bullish bias, as price is expected to rally this week or next. It would be mentioned that JPY pairs still have the possibility of rallying this month. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “As I have matured as a trader I have become better at dealing with the emotions that come with trading. That has come simply from exposure, self-awareness and time.” – Rachel Shasha Copyright: Tallinex.com
  11. GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Gold started a persistent bullish journey a few weeks ago, and this is strong enough to threaten the current bearish bias on the market. Should the bullish journey persist for the next few days, that would lead to a new clean “buy” signal, leading to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. There are possibilities of pullbacks this month, but as soon as price goes above the resistance level at 1155.00, then bearish positions would no longer make sense. There are support levels at 1110.50 and 1080.50, which might prevent possible pullbacks from being significant. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Unlike Gold, Silver has not assumed a noteworthy rally. Instead, price has been consolidating within the last few weeks, and there is nothing to pose a threat to the extant bearish outlook on the market. On Silver, there is bound to be a rise in momentum this month, which might take place this week or next. Price might drop heavily or rise sharply. However, a significant rally would be more likely in case Gold continues its journey upwards. That means a bullish Gold might act as a catalyst for bullish Silver, since both are positively correlated in most cases. Should Gold experience a serious pullback, then Silver would fall further south. On the downside, price could test the support levels at 13.6100 and 14.0000. On the upside, bulls might push the price towards the resistance levels at 15.1000 and 15.5000. Copyright: Tallinex.com
  12. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral This pair went up from the support line at 1.0800, reaching the resistance line at 1.0950. From that resistance line, price went down 120 pips. There is a neutral bias on this pair, which would remain in force until price goes below the support line at 1.0800 or above the resistance line at 1.0950. For a few weeks, that resistance line at 1.0950 has been refusing bullish movement above it, and therefore it is more likely that price would go further downwards this week, breaking below the support line at 1.0800, owing to a bearish outlook on EUR pairs for this week and for most of February 2016. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Last week, USDCHF moved sideways from Monday to Thursday, in the context of an uptrend, but broke upwards on Friday, reinforcing the existing uptrend. The resistance level at 1.0250 has already been tried, and there is a high possibility that price would go above that resistance level, targeting another resistance levels at 1.0300 and 1.0350. This would be easier especially in the wake of a weaker EURUSD. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish As it is always mentioned, long trades will usually be traps on GBPUSD until it is clearly confirmed that the bearish bias is completely over. Bulls made commendable effort to effect a rally last week – all of which proved futile with what happened on Friday, January 29, 2016 (a 200-pip pullback). The outlook on GBP, and therefore, GBP pairs is bearish for the month of February, even beyond the month. Bullish signals in this market should be ignored, because GBP would face challenges at many fronts, including the strengthening of AUD and NZD in this month. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This currency trading instrument moved in a tight range from Monday to Thursday, but there was a significant bullish breakout early Friday. This bullish breakout took price upwards by 300 pips, testing the supply level at 121.50; plus the rally would continue this week. There were strong bullish breakouts also on other JPY pairs: a beginning of protracted bullish movements on those pairs. Yes, bullish movements were already expected to start on JPY pairs around the end of January, and as a result of this, traders are advised to shun bearish signals on JPY pairs in February, because the outlook on them is bullish for the month. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross had already started moving upwards before the massive bullish breakout happened on Friday. Altogether, price went upwards by 400 pips last week, reaching the supply zone at 132.00. Here, pullbacks should be seen as opportunities to go long, because JPY pairs have high probabilities of trending further upwards in the month of February 2016. Currencies like EUR and GBP, which would be weak against some other currencies, would be seen going up against JPY in February. EURJPY could go further upwards by at least, 200 pips this week This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “One major aspect of Forex I really value is that trends are easy to find. Trading a trending chart has a big edge for two main reasons. First, trends generate good follow-through. In many instances they go much further than anyone might have expected.” – Gabriel Grammatidis Copyright: Tallinex.com
  13. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish As it was prognosticated, EURUSD did not experience a significant movement last week, though price moved lower. The lower movement has resulted in a bearish signal, since there is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. There are bearish targets at the support lines of 1.0750 and 1.0700, which would be reached as price continues meandering its way further south. EURUSD, and of course other EUR pairs, could become weaker. Generally, very strong movements should be seen on most (major) pairs and crosses this week and next week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This currency trading instrument moved higher last week (by around 140 pips), resulting in a bullish outlook on it. The previously adamant resistance level at 1.0100, which is now a support level, was broken to the upside. Price is currently above the support level at 1.0150, threatening to go further north. The outlook on USD is now bullish, which should reflect on other USD pairs, save USDCAD. This is also true of CAD pairs, for other currencies are weak against CAD, which should continue for some time. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Cable reached a low of 1.4078 and a high of 1.4362 last week, making a bullish effort in the context of a downtrend. The bias remains bearish, unless price goes above the distribution territory 1.4500, which is a daunting task for bulls because they would be faced with a strengthening USD. Therefore, Cable might experience some pullbacks this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This pair tested the demand level at 116.00 and bounced upwards by roughly 280 pips, closing at 118.77 on Friday. This rally was strong enough to become a threat to the recent bearish bias – which would be rendered useless once the supply level at 119.50 is overcome. The possibility of further rally is high, owing to the expected strength in USD. There would be strong volatility on JPY pair from this week till the end of the month. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish EURJPY consolidated throughout last week. Even bearish breakouts were quickly countered by bullish corrections. Bulls and bears are presently engaged in a deadlock struggle that will come to an end soon, for this cross will start a directional movement this week, though a rally might be difficult as long as EUR is weak. High volatility would be witnessed. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Learning the business of trading is basically no different from learning any other business. Winning means learning major guidelines and concepts that you repeat so often in your own behavior that they become good habits. These good habits then become automatic behavior patterns…” - Andy Jordan Copyright: Tallinex.com
  14. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral This pair experienced short-term upswings and downswings, with no directional movements in the medium term. Just like last week, there may not be very strong movements this week, though there could be significant movements around the end of this month (which could happen on other major pairs as well). There are support lines at 1.0850 and 1.0800. There are also resistance lines at 1.1000 and 1.1050. Price must go above these resistance lines or support lines, paving way for a strong movement expected around the end of this month. It is likely that EUR would rally, which would be visible on all EUR pairs. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral Whatever happens on USDCHF would be determined by what happens to EUR. The bias is now neutral, owing to the recent erratic movements in the market. There are support levels at 0.9950 and 0.9900. There are also resistance levels at 1.0050 and 1.0100; and so it is expected that price would go above these resistance levels or the support levels. A movement to the downside is more likely because the resistance level at 1.0100 is now a major barrier to bulls. That resistance level has successfully thwarted rally attempts within the last two weeks. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument came down by, at least, 250 pips last week, almost testing the accumulation territory at 1.4250. Price has come down by 950 pips since the middle of December 2015. There is a very strong bearish bias on the market – it does not make sense to go long until there is a bullish retracement of about 300 pips. That is the only condition that can threaten the existing bearish bias; otherwise rallies would offer new short-selling opportunities. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY consolidated last week, though it showed determination to continue going downwards. Price has come down by close to 600 pips since December 18, 2015, testing the demand level at 116.50 on January 15, 2016. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market and it is possible that the market would continue its southward journey, just as certain JPY pairs have done. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross, which fell sharply in the first week of this year, simply moved sideways last week. The outlook on the cross is bearish. However, the bearish outlook might be overturned by events affecting the Euro. In case the Euro gains lots of stamina, a rally attempt might be witnessed on this cross, contrary to what other JPY pairs might be doing. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “An ideal trading methodology should allow for limited risks and unlimited gains.” – Anonymous Copyright: Tallinex.com
  15. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish From Monday till Wednesday, this pair went south. However, it started a bullish journey from Thursday till the close of the market on Friday. Bulls would continue making attempts to push the price further north, but their action would not jeopardize the extant bearish outlook unless price goes above the resistance lines at 1.0000 and 1.0050. A close below the support line at 1.0800 would reinforce the extant bearish outlook. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USD/CHF went upwards from Monday till Wednesday, testing the resistance level at 1.0100. In spite of desperate effort, price was unable to break the resistance level to the upside. As a result of its inability to break the resistance level to the upside, price pulled back by at least 150 pips. There is a risk of further pullback, especially before the end of this week or early next week. The probability of CHF becoming very strong is possible this month, and therefore, we may see this effect on USDCHF (plus other CHF pairs). It cannot be said precisely how long the effect would last if it does happen. This is simply a seasonal tendency on CHF pairs, which have been happening for many years; only that the event of last January was unprecedented. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Cable came down by 250 pips last week. Since December 14, 2015, price has come down 700 pips. There is a clean Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and there is a high probability that the bearish movement would continue. The accumulation territories at 1.4000 and 1.3950 could be tested this week. Any rallies we see here would be transient; as the outlook on GBP pairs remain bearish for this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This is a bear market, which started a few weeks ago. Price went down 250 pips last week (and it has come down by 500 pips from the middle of December 2015). There is a lot of trading activity around the demand level at 117.50, which stands a good chance of being breached to the downside. Additional targets for this week are the demand levels at 117.00 and 116.50. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The EURJPY cross plunged by 350 pips last week, reaching the demand zone at 127.00. From that demand zone, price bounced upwards in the context of a downtrend, testing the supply level at 129.00. This is merely a bullish effort in the context of a downtrend, for the cross cannot go upwards significantly as long as the Yen has lots of stamina in it. Price could retest the demand zones at 127.50 and 127.00. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Be ready to take advantage of very lucrative opportunities. Traders can make the most money when volatility is high.” – Joe Ross Copyright: Tallinex.com
  16. Hi Forumers, Please I’m having an issue with my blog (….blogspot.com). The Google Adsense application on it was running for more than 4 years without any problem. Nevertheless, I recently saw it in my Dashboard that I needed to apply for Adsense to show on the blog and track my records, which meant that the Adsense ads that were running on the website were just doing so for nothing. I called a tech guy who helped me look into the issue, but we couldn’t solve any problem. I’m at loss as to what to do… I now think that the best solution to this problem is to contact Google people, especially the ones in charge of Adsense and Adwords, so that they can help me check my blog and fix whatever errors they see there, while giving me further advice where necessary. Please I need your answers, I don’t know the EMAIL ADDRESS(ES) I need to contact so that this kind of issue would be solved once and for all. Please who can provide me with relevant email address(es) to contact, so that their attention can be drawn to the problem, for a possible solution. You objective and precise answers would be forever appreciated. Many thanks!
  17. GOLD (XAUUSD) Long-term bias: Bearish In 2015, Gold topped at 1307.35 and later reached a low of 1046.21. Gold was engaged in perpetual and persistent downtrend, trapping bulls with short-term bullish movements. It is completely irrational to open long trades in the market, because the bears have really made their presence felt for a long time. Years 2013, 2014 and 2015 were all strongly bearish, which explains one of the reasons why the Thanksgiving effects did not take place in those 3 years. Since this is a market that currently favors sellers, it would be rational to seek short trades only (using upward bounces opportunities to sell short, especially when bearish candles form following such upward bounces). SILVER (XAGUSD) Long-term bias: Bearish Just like its Gold counterpart, Silver has been in a persistent downtrend since the year 2013. In this kind of market, the best trading approach is to ignore bullish signals and capitalize on bearish signals. Bullish signals could also be taken as chances to enter short at better prices, which offer lower risk as long as the long-term bias remains bearish. Last year, price reached a high of 18.4500 and a low of 13.6100 – a low that could be breached to the downside this year. In this market, it is recommended that rallies should be viewed with suspicion until there is a “Golden Cross,” which is a situation in which price closes above the EMA 200 on the daily chart, trending upwards. This is when it can be safely said that the bearish trend is over. Copyright: Tallinex.com
  18. Here’s the market outlook for the year: EURUSD Long-term bias: Bearish EURUSD was generally bearish in 2015, reaching a low of 1.0462 and a high of 1.1712. The last week of that year was bearish, and the bearishness could continue till February 2016. From February to April, we would witness serious bullish effort, which would be eased at the end of April, because bears would come in again and make their presence felt in the market from April to June. However, a new lease of bullish journey would be resumed in the market around October/November, which would last till the end of the year (it would even go beyond the year, into 2017, ending around February 2017). The ongoing bias is now bearish and this should be honored. USDCHF Long-term bias: Bullish Since the large pullback that was seen in January 2015, USDCHF has been making perpetual effort to go upwards. Along the way, there were occasional instances of medium-term bearish phases in the market. The bearish phases would last for few weeks or months, only for price to recover and go up higher. In 2016, there could be intermittent phases of weakness in January. Then the market would most likely show further weakness in the months of February to April; but we can witness a smooth rally in the months of April to June. Right now, price is making attempts to go up, and it could reach the resistance levels at 1.0100 and 1.0150 in the first full week of January. GBPUSD Long-term bias: Bearish The short-term, the medium-term, and the long-term biases on GBPUSD are all bearish. Price reached a low of 1.4565 and a high of 1.5929 in the year 2015. Since June 2015, price has come down by 1100 pips, closing at 1.4732 on December 31, 2015. The year 2014 saw far more predictable movements on GBPUSD than the year 2015 (as it was true of other major pairs and crosses). This year might be different. At the present, the bias on the GBPUSD (and other GBP pairs) is bearish and this would continue till March 2016. The market could rally between March and May of this year. It could even continue to rally in June and July; but not without visible gravity attempts from the bears. Following this, there might not be another serious weakness in the market until December 2016. USDJPY Long-term bias: Bearish On this pair, bears won a pyrrhic victory in the year 2015. The struggle between bears and bulls were so intense that the market phases for that year were mostly consolidations and fake-out phases. The year 2014 was even better than the year 2015. The current bias is bearish, but bulls might gain upper hands before the end of January; plus their victory could last till June (though not with occasional pullbacks along the way). The market might go through some phases of weakness within July and September. Nevertheless, the bulls would push the price higher around October – an action that could last till December. EURJPY Long-term bias: Bearish Last year, the EURJPY cross was characterized by high volatility, choppy movements and deadly struggles between bulls and bears. The extant weakness might continue till February, when price would be strengthened till April 2016. The best action to take in the market would be to seek shorting opportunities between April and September. Additionally, the market might rally from September to November; while we would witness another phases of choppy and volatile movements in December 2016. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “You will have to stick to your process as much as you can even when things do not go as expected. If you can build such a process and manage to follow it 100 per cent of the time, then you will be trading like a professional.” – Pierre Veyret Copyright: Tallinex.com
  19. INSIGHTS INTO THE MINDSET OF SUPER TRADERS – Part 20 “Books are great mentors, but where else can you learn? By standing on the shoulders of giants. When it comes to making money, here is the million dollar secret...follow someone smarter than you...” – James Altucher Name: James Tisch Date of birth: January 2, 1953 Nationality: American Occupation: Investor and businessman Career James, who’s of Jewish ethnicity, was born in Southampton, New York, USA. His dad was co-chair of Loews Corporation, plus his brother Preston Tisch. He went to Cornell University and later got his MBA from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. James has held prestigious positions, including having a seat in the directorate of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. He’s been the CEO of Loews Corporation since 1999. One thing special about him is that, in terms of percentage, his investments have outperformed Warren Buffet’s. He’s married to Merryl and blessed with 3 children. James has a mansion which is about 8,000 square feet in Southampton, New York. James is an avid philanthropist, and a supporter of certain politicians. He and his wife donated $40 million to found a cancer research institute, named after them. Insights: 1. Transparency matters in business success. If you claim you’re good at trading/investing, then you must make your audited track records known. 2. Transparency leads to credibility. Credibility leads to more and more success. Simply look for ways to make your career credible. Success would then be very easy. 3. James has been investing for many years. He’s really a veteran of the markets. Successful trading needs a commitment of a lifetime – just like a successful marriage. Commitment is what you need to realize your dreams, not mere interest. 4. If you’re good enough, you can outperform the bigwigs. This means you can gain better than they can, in terms of percentage, though their portfolios may be bigger than yours. You can make 40% per annum on a $100,000 portfolio: whereas someone who’s managing $10 million could only make 6% per annum. Can you see the difference? As mentioned earlier, one thing special about James is that, in terms of percentage, his investments have outperformed Warren Buffet’s. He may not be as rich as Warren, but he outperforms him in terms of percentage gains. Since the year 2000, James has grown by almost 400% while Warren has grown by only 100%. Conclusion: Do you think you’re a god who can predict the markets, Can you predict football matches with utmost certainty, even before the matches start. If you could do that, would you do that for other types of sports? Can you predict exactly when you will die or when a healthy person will die? Why do you still think future can be predicted? Why do you still think you can predict the markets? People get frustrated only because they think they can predict the markets (but they can’t, in reality). When you agree that it’s unrealistic to think that you can predict the market with whatever tools you may have, then you’ll find a solution to your trading problems. You’ll develop a system that enables you to make money without predicting the markets. James Tisch was able to attain good performances because he’s formulas that make him victorious while not being able to know the future. This article is ended by the quote below: “Event-driven trading can be very lucrative.” – Dr. Adrian Manz Copyright: Tallinex.com
  20. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish EURUSD moved upwards 100 pips last week, still showing determination to go further upwards. The market would experience some equilibrium movement this week, owing to thin activities in the markets, but possibilities of surprise movements cannot be ruled out (especially on some other EUR pairs like EURAUD, EURNZD, etc.). Bulls might target the resistance lines at 1.1000 and 1.1050 this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair did not make any significant movement last week, and it is more likely that the sideways movement would continue this week; which could make the bias on the market turn neutral. There are support levels at 0.9850 and 0.9800. On the other hand, there are resistance levels at 0.9950 and 1.0000. It is expected that the price would oscillate between these support and resistance levels for the rest of this year – breaking them to the upside or to the downside within the first week of January 2016. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish From Monday to Tuesday, Cable dropped by 100 pips, to rise by 110 pips from Wednesday and Thursday. The current price action in the market could be rightly called a rally in the context of a downtrend, because the bearish outlook cannot be invalidated as long as price is under the distribution territory 1.5050. A very strong bearish movement would likely resume on GBP pairs on the first week of January 2016. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument performed a steady southwards movement last week. From just under the supply level at 121.50, price was able to move below the supply level at 120.50, to close at 120.27. There is a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which would enable this currency instrument to dive further by 100 pips this week or next week. At the present, long trades do not make much sense in this market. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross moved upwards 100 pips in the first few days of last week, before it went down by 100 pips, reaching the demand zone at 131.50. This action supported the extant bearish bias on the market. At this juncture, the movement of this cross would be dictated by the events surrounding the Euro, which means that we might see a rally in case the Euro is strengthened further. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Money is perpetual in the markets and the objective is to keep as much as you can when it passes through your hands.” – Alpha7 (Trading Academy) Copyright: Tallinex.com
  21. What Super Traders Don’t Want you to Know - Now Available Free? CANDID BOOKREVIEW Succeeding as a Trader after Learning the Necessary Facts and Skills This book profiles 22 renowned super traders from around the world. Great traders who know what it takes to be successful in the markets. In this follow up to his previous book: “Learn From the Generals of the Markets,” the author gives an overview of their careers and explains what lessons can be drawn from their success. The book emphasizes on the kind of friends you keep will have impact on your life, and of course, on your trading career. When you hang out with those who hate trading, those who have been floored by the markets and have sworn not to have anything to do with the markets again, those who are afraid of the challenges the markets offer, those whose job is to discourage you from attaining your goals in life, you cannot become successful in the markets. Trading is a wonderful experience that can transform lives. We need to surround ourselves with successful traders or at least, read about them, plus the principles that can be learned from them. The super traders featured in this book will inspire you and reveal the principles behind their success. For you to eventually reach a position of a super trader (one who makes profits consistently and effortlessly), you definitely need more than strategies. There are certain timeless truths, principles, mindsets and beliefs that super traders cannot do without. Since using the best strategy without the essential requirements would not improve any statistics; the catholicity of those seamless requirements cannot be overemphasized. Super Traders with Enviable Achievements Kenneth Fisher – a billionaire trader who is featured in the book – is an exceptional trader who was introduced to the trading world by a market legend, Philip Fisher, who was his dad. This shows that when we teach young people the art of trading, we prepare them for financial freedom as early as possible. James Chanos, another highly profitable trader featured in the book, testifies to this fact by saying: “Life intrudes – as when you get older you end up with more responsibilities and your ability to take risk diminishes. If you are 25 and have a great idea and you fail, no one is going to hold it against you, and future you will be able to take more financial and career risk. If it does not work, you still have your whole life ahead of you.” You will also come across some celebrity traders like Dan Loeb (the Kanye West of Wall Street) and Ray Dalio (the Steve Jobs of investing). More interestingly, the book features some female super traders like a high earning hedge fund manager, Leda Braga; an influential female trader, Maria Boyazny; a world trading champion, Victoria Grimsley; and a happy market player, Toni Turner. The author advises that women should never underestimate their right to become a trader, including their limitless potential to become financially free. It is very sad that some people still underestimate women when it comes to online trading. It is unfair to underestimate women in the trading world because there is no level of achievement that cannot be attained by them. In fact, female traders have been a blessing to the trading world. In addition, they are a source of inspiration and encouragement to us. The Inevitable Trading Experiences According to the author, the gallivanting neophyte will pass through two phases of experiences. The first phase is when she/he loses money no matter what she/he does. This is a phase where the majority quit trading, and not many people go beyond that phase. The second phase is when one begins to make money easily. These are the people that the public call “market wizards,” “super traders,” “pros,” “expert speculators,” “gurus,” “witches,” “mad geniuses,” et cetera. The public think something is special about them, but these people know that there is nothing special about them. What makes the difference is that they decided to continue fighting for success at the stage that most others quit. This book will definitely be of interest to those who are determined to become super traders. Adapted from TRADERS’ Book Review, June/July 2015 (pages 60 - 61) “What Super Traders Don’t Want You to Know” is available right now for the Kindle at the flash sale price of just 99p. This essential guide could start you on the path to becoming a super trader. NB: To get the almost free book, please visit: What Super Traders Don’t Want You To Know: Advfnbooks.com/books/supertraders/index.html Tallinex.com wants you to make money from the markets
  22. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Although the dominant bias on this pair is bullish, the bias is seriously threatened. After testing the resistance line at 1.1050, the price went down by roughly 250 pips, almost reaching the support line at 1.0800. Based on the bearish expectation on EUR (and EUR pairs) for the rest of this month, it is likely that EURUSD would go further south by 100 pips this week. In case this happens, the bias on the pair would turn bearish. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish After bottoming at the support level of 0.9800, the USD/CHF has been making a noticeable bullish attempts in the context of a downtrend. The price reached the resistance level at 0.9950 on Thursday, and then consolidated till the end of the week. At this junction the direction of the USD/CHF would be determined by what happens to EUR. There would be mixed signals on all USD pairs, for the US dollars would be weak against some currencies as well as strong against some currencies. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish What happened on Cable last week has resulted in a “sell’’ signal, in solidarity with our bearish expectation on GBP pairs. Cable went south by 300 pips to test the accumulation territory at 1.4900. This has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and it is likely that the southward movement would continue for the rest of this month. Therefore, any rallies that are seen should be approached as short-selling opportunities. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This volatile currency trading instrument swung wildly last week. Price tested the demand level at 120.50, and then rose sharply to reach the supply level at 123.50 (a movement of 300 pips). After the supply level was tested, price fell by 200 pips on Friday, due to the fundamental events affecting the Yen, which gave strength to the Yen. The current bias on USD/JPY is bearish, and this should be respected as it long as it lasts. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This market traded sideways from Monday till Thursday; and experienced a bearish breakout on Friday. The weakness in the market, coupled with its inability to trend higher, has made the outlook on the market become bearish. As EUR is weakened further, EUR/JPY might trend further south. There is a need for a serious weakening in the Yen before this bearish movement can be reversed. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Quality of trades matter, but a trading career does not depend on one trade, it is rather the sum of all trades. Acknowledging that a few losing trades cannot hurt me released me from anxious trading.” - Christiaan van der Meer Copyright: Tallinex.com
  23. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish EURUSD has been able to maintain the bullish breakout it performed on December 3, 2015. Last week, price moved further upwards by 170 pips, closing above the support line at 1.0950. There are resistance lines at 1.1000 and 1.1050, which could be tested as the bullish journey continues. However, there is a strong possibility that EURUSD would experience a vivid pullback this week or next week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Since November 30, 2015, this pair has trended downwards by almost 500 pips. The bias is bearish, and it would be difficult for the pair to trend seriously upwards now (in spite of the fact that USD could be strengthened against some other currencies), due to the stamina in the Euro and the possibility of the Swiss Franc amassing strength. The support levels at 0.9800 and 0.9750 stand chances of being tested. The support level at 0.9800 was almost tested last week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This currency trading instrument first trended lower on Monday and Tuesday – only for further bearish movement to be rejected as price assumed a smooth rally. Since Tuesday, price has gone upwards by 250 pips, leading to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The possibility of further bullish movement is not downplayed, but it should be remembered that the expectation on GBP pairs remains bearish for the month of December, thus long positions on GBPUSD should be handled with caution. There could be a large pullback before the end of this month. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The bears were able to push USDJPY lower last week, ending the recent neutral bias on the market. Price fell by 250 pips, closing just below the supply level at 121.00. This price action has brought about a “sell” signal in the market, but the odd against the signal is the bullish expectation on JPY pairs, which could still happen anytime this month. Until there is a rally owing to the bullish expectation on JPY pairs, the “sell” signal currently in the market ought to be respected. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish EURJPY consolidated last week, and later went downwards. The downward movement was shallow; all in the context of an uptrend. The consolidation and shallow bearish movement were considerable enough to pose a threat to the extant bullish bias. A movement of 200 pips to the downside might be the end of the bullish bias, although there is a hope for further bullish journey, and that is when JPY loses strengths significantly. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Although the price charts look the same today as they did long ago, the trade management needed constant adaptation. The markets are alive and forever changing.” – Joe Ross Copyright: Tallinex.com
  24. Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish There was a sudden and fast bullish breakout on EURUSD, which made it go upwards 450 pips, testing the resistance line at 1.0950. The price consolidated after that, till price closed last week. The bullish breakout has abruptly overturned the recent bearish trend in the market, but a crucial question remains… Was this a false breakout? A false breakout could be as significant as you might think, but it would remain false in case it cannot be sustained. For this bullish breakout not to become a false one, we should see further bullish movement (whether fast or gradual); otherwise, another leg of southward movement would start. It has already been said that the outlook on USD is bright for December, while EUR is expected to be weak. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish There was a surprise pullback on this pair last Thursday, as it went below several resistance levels, plus the great psychological level at 1.0000. Price nosedived by 400 pips last week, reinforcing the gradual bearish movement that started at the beginning of last week. Now the USDCHF is facing challenges from two fronts: The recent strengthening of EUR and the expected rally in CHF. Yes, CHF is expected to start gaining stamina by the end of this week, and that can last until Christmas Eve (please watch CHF pairs). This means that bulls will certainly not find it easy to push up USDCHF price. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish On Thursday, December 3, 2015, GBPUSD also went upward 250 pips in a positive correlation attempt with EURUSD. The distribution territory at 1.5150 was tested after price rose from the accumulation territory at 1.4900. Nevertheless, the bearish outlook on GBP pairs remains unchanged for the month of December. It can be seen that the major bias on most GBP pairs have been bearish, so, the recent upward bounces should be opportunities to go short at better prices. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral What happened on this currency trading instrument last week was short-term upward and downward swings. The swings have not succeeded in overturning the neutral bias on the market. A movement of at least, 200 pips to the upside or to the downside is required before price could move out of this neutral zone. A movement to the upside is the most likely because the US dollar would be making some bullish effort, and because the Yen might suffer further loss of strength. The market condition is now currently great for scalpers and intraday traders. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish As it was mentioned in the past, one of those things that could bring about a vivid rally on this cross is a vivid rally in the Euro itself. That was exactly what happened last week. From the demand zone at 130.00, price shot skywards, reaching the supply zone at 134.50 (a movement of 450 pips). Price has moved sideways since then, but further upward movement is possible because JPY pairs might move upwards this month, in certain cases. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Although strategy is important, it is not as critical as knowledge and the discipline to apply and adhere to your rules. A trader who really knows the strengths and weaknesses of his or her strategy can do significantly better than someone who knows only a little about a superior strategy. Of course, the ideal situation would be to know a lot about a great strategy. That should be your ultimate goal.” - Mark Minervini Copyright: Tallinex.com
  25. GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish The Thanksgiving effect did not take place last week, as Gold generally moved sideways, without any significant drop. This effect has not taken place for 3 years in a row, though that does not mean it would not take place in November 2016. The dominant bias on the market is bearish, and price might journey further south, reaching the demand levels at 1040.00, 1030.00 and 1020.00. The bearish bias would continue to be valid as long as the supply levels at 1095.00 and 1110.00 are not breached to the upside. One thing must be noted, a significant rally is not ruled out in the month of December 2015. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Normally, when the Thanksgiving rally did not take place on Gold, it would not take place on Silver either. Silver has been trading in a range since the last two weeks – all in the context of a strong downtrend. Further downwards movement is possible, enabling price to test the support levels at 13.5000, 13.2000 and 12.9000. Possibilities of rallies should not be downplayed, because bulls would also make determined effort to push the price upwards this month, but they would not succeed in bringing about a bullish trend on Silver unless the resistance levels at 14.9000 and 150.0000 are overcome. Copyright: Tallinex.com
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