analyst75

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral This market merely went flat throughout last week; neither closing above the resistance line at 1.1150 nor going below the support line 1.1000. Price went lower on July 15, but it is unlikely that the support line at 1.1000 would be breached, for price may not be able to close below the support line, even after it tests it. This week, the probability of price going north is higher than the probability of it going south. Therefore, the resistance lines at 1.1200 and 1.1250 could be tested this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish In spite of attacks from bears, USDCHF was able to avoid a significant decline last week. Price managed to go above the resistance level 0.9850, but it could not reach the subsequent resistance level at 0.9900 (which is a strong barrier to the bullish movement). Price underwent a shallow bearish correction on Wednesday and Thursday; while the bias remains bullish. There ought to be further bullish movement this week….. But…. There two threats against the current bullish outlook: 1). CHF could become strong any time this month. 2). USD may become weak versus other major currencies before the end of this week. Until one of these two threats materialize, USDCHF would continue trudging upwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Just as it was forecasted, GBPUSD pair made some conspicuous effort to rally last week, without being able to overturn the bearish outlook on it. Other GBP pairs also rallied significantly, like GBPNZD (1100 pips) and GBPJPY (1300 pips). GBPUSD went north by 550 pips, topped at 1.3480, before the current pullback began. A bullish signal has been generated in the hourly and 4-hour charts, whereas the overall bias remains bearish on higher timeframes. GBPUSD might be able to go further upwards this week; and the bias could turn bullish in case the rally is quite strong. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Contrary to expectation, USDJPY pair went upwards significantly last week (just as other JPY pairs did). Price went north 550 pips, ramming into the supply level at 106.00, before getting corrected on Friday. There is a now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, which means that further upwards movement is possible. The only possible impediment to the current bullish effort is a possible weakness in USD, which might result in a considerable selling pressure. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross underwent a bullish movement of more than 700 pips last week, enforcing a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. Although price got corrected by over 200 pips on Friday, July 15, the Bullish Confirmation Pattern remains valid. This means price might go further upwards this week, though threats from bears have not abated. Only a movement below the demand zone at 114.00 would render the bullish outlook useless. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “We believe in never trying to "take" or force the market, only "accept" what it gives you.” - Joe Ross Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair moved sideways last week, with no major bearish or bullish movement, though the overall bias remains bearish. There are support lines at 1.0000, 1.0950 and 1.0900. The support line at 1.1000 is a formidable barrier, and should price go below it, the support lines below it could be tested. On the other hand, there are resistance lines at 1.1150, 1.1200 and 1.1250, which could also be tested when bulls become strong enough to effect any short-term rally. The outlook on the market is bearish for this month; whereas that does not rule out bullish attempts this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF was able to move further upwards last week. Bulls achieved a feat when they pushed price above the support level at 0.9800 (which used to be an obstacle to them). Price was then pushed towards the resistance level at 0.9850, which has already been tested. There two threats against the current bullish outlook: 1). CHF could become strong any time this month. 2). USD may become weak versus other major currencies before the end of this week. Until one of these two threats materialize, USDCHF would continue trudging upwards. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument is still in a major downtrend. Price dropped 460 pips last week, reaching a low of 1.2796 and closing at 1.2951. The market went sideways in the last few days of the week. This week, there is a high probability that price would trend upwards (plus this could be witnessed on some GBP pairs). GBP might gain some strength this week or next week, but it is very much unlikely that the market would reach the high of June 23 anytime soon. This means that, while there could be a rally in the market, the dominant bias would continue to be bearish. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The market went down more than 250 pips last week, to close at 100.56 on Friday. The outlook on the market, and of course, on other JPY pairs, remains bearish. Price could trend further downwards, as it goes for the demand levels at 100.00, 99.50 and 99.00. The task is to break below the demand level at 100.00 first, after which it would be easier to reach other demand levels below it. Any rallies in this market ought to be ignored. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The “sell” signal on EURJPY is still a valid thing, since there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price declined further by 330 pips from Monday to Wednesday, and consolidated till the end of the week. Like other JPY pairs, further decline is expected; and any rallied seen here are essentially opportunities to seek short trades. There are intriguing demand zones at 110.50, 110.00 and 109.50. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “You know those adages about smelling the roses and chasing butterflies? The markets are my butterflies and my roses.” - Bill Gross Copyright: Tallinex.com

AUS200 Dominant bias: Bullish AUS200 declined last month, reaching a high of 5393.0 and a low of 5040.0. That southwards movement threatened the bullish outlook on the market, but the recovery that was witnessed in the last several days of June has upheld bulls’ domination. Price is expected to trend further northward this month, reaching the distribution territories at 5440.0, 5540.0 and 5640.0. SPX500 Dominant bias: Bullish This market moved sideways in the first half of June 2014; then it broke down on June 23 and 24, halting the bullish attempt that was witnessed before then. The bias would have turned bearish, should bears continued pushing the market southwards, but price started to recover the following week, which restored confidence to bulls. The outlook on the market is bullish, as bulls would continue to push price upwards, with only intermittent pullbacks along the way. US30 Dominant bias: Bullish The movement of this trading instrument was essentially bearish last month, but bulls were able to recover some of their losses, as price skyrocketed by 9000 points from the monthly low of 17059.0. Recovery is in progress, for this instrument may still move north by additional 4000 points (at least), this month. So the best approach might be to buy fleeting pullbacks in the market, especially when they are followed by a bullish candle in the 4-hour chart. GER30 Dominant bias: Bullish GER30 experienced a large pullback on June 23 and 24, after which bulls came in to arrest further bearish movement. Price plunged into very formidable demand zones and was forced to spring upwards – an action that was followed by a smooth bullish recovery. Price went upwards by almost 5000 points last week, but it is yet to reach the high of June 23, 2016, which was 10470.8. The high of that day is the minimum target for bulls this month, because GER30 would continue to experience gradual recovery until the target at 10470.8 is reached or exceeded. FRA40 Dominant bias: Bullish The market price reached a low of 3919.9 on June 24, and then began a journey of recovery, which remains in progress. Price closed at 4257.4 last week, on a bullish note. The targets for this month are located at the resistance lines of 4370.0, 4450.0 and 4500.0. This does not rule out possibilities of bears’ machinations, but bulls should be vividly victorious by the end of July. Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair moved upwards 150 pips last week, testing the resistance line at 1.1150, in the context of a downtrend. The outlook on EURUSD remains bearish for this week. For the outlook to turn bullish, price needs to go upwards by at least, 300 pips from here. Otherwise, the support lines at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000 would be tested this week. Those support lines were recently breached, and they would be breached again as the bearish movement continues. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF was essentially a flat market before June 23, 2016. It was pushed upwards only by fact of the strong decline in EURUSD. Price made a faint bullish attempt last week, but it met an opposition from bears, who checked further bullish movement, and forced the price to bend downwards (in the 4-hour chart). The bullish signal on USDCHF is in a precarious situation; which means that further bearish correction could cancel the bullish signal, thus forcing price back into the neutral territory, in which it was before June 23. This week, bulls need to keep on pushing price north in order to avoid bears’ victory. There is one big roadblock ahead: CHF would soon gain a serious stamina this month and it could bring about some selling pressure on USDCHF, while having visible bearish effects on other CHF pairs (save CHFJPY). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Cable went virtually flat last week, in the context of a downtrend. There are Bearish Confirmation Patterns on 4-hour, weekly, and monthly charts, which all signal serious weakness on Cable. Apart from this, there is a bearish expectation on Cable (and other GBP pairs); just as it was in the last two weeks. While bulls may attempt to push up price by a few hundred pips at most, bears would end up as winners. In this month, GBP pairs would experience strong movements. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY also went flat last week, in the context of a downtrend. It would be difficult for bulls to push the pair upwards significantly because there are adamant supply levels above them, and because the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week and for this month. JPY pairs are expected to assume major bearish movements this week (which could last till early October 2016). USDJPY would trend downwards by a minimum of 200 pips before the end of this week or by early next week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish While the major bias is bearish, this cross went upward 250 pips last week. There are supply zones at 115.50 and 116.50, and while price could possibly test them this week, bears would still continue to dominate the market, putting more emphasis on the major bias, which is also visible on higher timeframes. Just like other JPY pairs, this cross could go further and further downwards in the next few months, though that does not rule out the possibility of noteworthy bullish efforts. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “About fifteen years ago, I moved to the U.S. and worked with several CTAs. This was the point in my career that I made the decision to eliminate all human emotion from my trading. I became a purely systematic trader. For me, emotion and subjectivity are the enemies. Good traders follow systems. Systems have rules.” - Francisco London (Source: Collective2.com) Copyright: Tallinex.com

GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Gold moved upwards by over 12400 pips last month, and price reached a high of 1358.21 that month. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in 4-hour, daily and weekly charts, so it is not advisable to open short trades in the market. Any bearish attempts the market makes ought to be short-lived, proffering opportunities to go long at better prices. Further bullish movement is possible this month, which would enable price to first breach the high of June (1358.21), and then go towards the resistance levels at 1360.00, 1380.00 and possibly, 1400.00. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Recently, the bullish movement on Silver has been stronger than the bullish movement on Gold. Since the beginning of June 20016, till now, price has gone upwards by over 3200 pips, reaching a high of 19.3600 on July 1. There is a strong bullish outlook on the market – something that is supposed to continue this week. It is also possible that sales would be temporary in the context of this uptrend, as bulls target the demand levels at 19.5000, 20.0000 and 21.0000. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Bticoin went beyond our target for last month. Price broke above the accumulation territory at 600.00, reaching a high of 775.92. The buying pressure on the market still exists, and further northward attempts would be seen this month, which may enable the market to recover the massive sell-offs it experienced within June 19 to 23. Although the presence of bears poses threats, the targets for month are located at the distribution territories at 775.00, 780.00 and 800.00. Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair tested the resistance line at 1.1400, and went above it briefly. Price could not stay above that resistance line: It tumbled by 500 pips before a 200-pip bullish correction occurred on Friday. The bias is bearish, and further bearish movement is possible, but it may not be more than 300 pips downwards. Price might also journey upwards this week, owing to the fact that the extreme bearish movement that occurred on Friday could bring opportunities to buy. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF was essentially a flat market in the context of a downtrend, before the strong bearish movement on EURUSD forced it to break out upwards. Price moved upwards 250 pips, reaching the resistance level at 0.9800, and the got corrected by 100 pips. For the bias to remain bullish, EURUSD needs to continue moving south; because the events affecting EURUSD are what would determine the movement of USDCHF (which is being currently affected by inertia on its own). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish On Friday, June 24, 2016, Cable experienced its strongest bearish movement in recent years. Price dropped by 1700 pips, reaching the low of 1.3230. Price later performed a 500-pip bullish correction, later closing at 1.3682 that Friday. Normally, the outlook on GBP pairs is bearish, and continuous selling pressure on Cable is a possibility. However, the extreme market situation would also bring some opportunities to go long, for those who are very good at catching falling knives. The markets could open with gaps next week. While things are currently bearish on GBP pairs, recovery would gradually or smoothly return to the markets. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish The Brexit votes outcome also had bearish effects on JPY pairs, and that was exactly what brought about a bearish momentum on USDJPY, which was consolidating in the context of a downtrend prior to that time. What happened to this market on Friday simply brought more emphasis on the long-term bearish trend, which is also visible on the daily and weekly charts. Although the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish, the 700-pip decline that was witnessed on Friday would bring about a rally within the next several trading days, as bulls seem to have reached the end of their tether. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument dropped 1200 pips on Friday, thus forfeiting the 350-pip bullish gains it saw within Monday and Thursday. The bias on 4-hour chat, daily chart and weekly chart is bearish, but price has already encountered very formidable demand zones on Friday. While selling pressure is present in the market, we may witness some bullish attempt in the next few weeks. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: "Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it." - Warren Buffet Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral All bearish pulls EURUSD experienced last week were rendered useless by bullish effort. Price did not go above the resistance line at 1.1300 last week; nor did it stay below the support line at 1.1150. The impasse between bulls and bears has enforced the neutrality of the market, and unless price goes above the resistance line at 1.1400 (causing a bullish bias), or goes below the support line at 1.1100 (causing a bearish bias), the neutrality of price would continue. This week, there is going to be strong moment on EURUSD, which would most likely favor bears. This pair is quite choppy right now. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair moved sideways last week – performing only upswings and downswings in the context of a downtrend. The support level at 0.9550 ought to be breached to the downside for the bearish journey to continue. However, further decline on EURUSD would trigger a rally on the pair, which would result in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern when price goes above the resistance level at 0.9800. A strong buying pressure is required for this to happen. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This week, there would not be any unprecedented movements on GBP pairs (just like Grexit caused no special movements in the markets), save strong movements that are not more than anything that has been witnessed so far this year. Surprise movements do not usually happen when they are anticipated. What usually cause extremely serious movements in the markets are events that happen unexpectedly. Likely effects of Brexit have been anticipated, as well as likely effects of Bremain. Therefore, they would not cause any movements stronger than what we have seen on GBP pairs this year. Throughout Thursday, June 23, GBPUSD (and most other GBP pairs) will go in one direction with little or no reversal, but there would be nothing graver than normal. The outlook on the pair is bearish and further southward movement could possibly be witnessed this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Just as it was forecasted, USDJPY declined further by 300 pips last week, going below the demand level at 104.00, before things went sideways again. Price has dropped 550 pips since the beginning of this month, and the downtrend is likely to continue, as price targets the demand levels at 103.50 and 103.00. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This is a bear market, just like most other JPY pairs. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, giving a possibility of price reaching the demand zones at 117.00, 116.00, and 115.00 this week or next. The demand levels at 117.00 and 116.00 were tested last week, and they could be retested this week. One thing should be noted, bearish pressure on EUR would make it difficult for EURJPY to make any significant rally this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “You don't have to trade perfectly. You just have to trade profitably. Put a single trade in perspective. It's just one trade of the many trades you will make in your lifetime. You may lose or you may win, but the outcome of a single trade does not matter. What matters are your overall profits across a series of trades, not just a single trade.” – Joe Ross Copyright: Tallinex.com

“What matters is your ability to pick up the flying gobs of money whizzing past your ears in the financial markets money storm.” – Louise Bedford Originally, I planned to post an article titled: “Difficult Markets Produce Fine Results – Part 2.” But I can see that the media are making noises about the coming Brexit or Bremain, just like they did when the issue of Grexit was hot. A referendum is being held on Thursday, June 23, 2016, to decide whether Britain should leave or remain in the European Union. Since the outcome of the referendum will impact the markets, it is worthwhile to know the nature of the impact and how exactly the markets would behave during and following the referendum. Traders want to know what the market would do, whether it would go up or down or simply fluctuate wildly without a directional movement. What would the markets do? I’ll tell you what the markets are supposed to do, and that’d be my opinion. Everybody is entitled to her/his opinion. If you could recall my Annual Trading Forecasts for the year 2015, it was mentioned that USDCHF would experience a large pullback in January. That was exactly what happened. What Would Happen to the Markets on June 23 and After The Brexit/Bremain issues would affect mainly GBP pairs (Just like the SNB action of January 15, 2015, affected mainly CHF pairs). When I mention major GBP pairs, I mean GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPCAD, EURGBP, GBPAUD, GBPNZD and GBPCHF. These pairs are already trending strongly; but that is their normal behavior. Please check historical data. Whether Britain chooses to remain in the European Union or leave, there would be strong movements in the markets. The movements would be stronger in case Britain chose to leave the EU. The currency market is like a rubber band: If it moves too far in one direction, it’d soon snap back. Accumulation and distribution territories are present to check strong trends. Nevertheless… No matter what the outcome of the referendum is, there will be no unprecedented volatility in the markets. In my recent markets forecasts, it has been mentioned that GBP pairs would experience strong volatility this month (plus NZD pairs). This is because GBP pairs usually move strongly in June while most other pairs experience low volatility. Bremain/Brexit issues are only a catalyst that will spur the usual strong movements on GBP pairs this June. The market has a knack for going against people’s expectation. Events that people don’t anticipate are what cause surprise moves, not events that people anticipate. People didn’t anticipate the unprecedented CHF pairs volatility that occurred on January 15, 2015 and there were surprise consequences. Another instance of an unexpected event that caused surprise movements was the last major earthquake in Japan, in March 2011, which also caused nuclear fallout. Grexit was hyped as something that might have a serious impact on the markets. What then happened? There was nothing significant or extraordinary, as far as the markets were concerned. Even there were far stronger movements in the first few months and the last few months of 2015, than when the Grexit issue was hot. There wouldn’t be any unpredicted movements or volatility on GBP pairs (just like Grexit caused no special movements in the markets), save strong movements that are not more than anything that has been witnessed so far this year. Whether Britain exits the union or remains in it, the markets will simply do what they’re known for. The markets will move, presenting good money-making opportunities for astute traders. The stronger the movement, the more money we make. After all, no money can be made in a market that doesn’t move well (unless you’re a scalper). It’s good to open trades based on what the markets are doing, not based on what you think the markets would do. Yes, trending movements would develop further – a thing that good traders are prepared for. Final Thoughts Please, use risk control methods in your trading, so that adverse movements don’t have an adverse effect on your capital; while a favorable movement would have a satisfactory effect on your capital. As ever, it’s good to risk very small per trade. When a position moves against you, you should be protected by a stop, having no worries, provided your stake is also small. When a position moves in your favor, you should make a decent profit. However, certain traders might want to stay away from GBP pairs till the end of the month, if that’s what you prefer. Once again, GBP pairs would trend strongly this month, but don’t expected any movements that would be stronger than what we’ve already witnessed this year, not matter the outcome of the referendum. Do not expect any surprises when the public are anticipating them. Surprises come when the public don’t anticipate them. This article is ended by the quote below: “I‘ve seen a lot of aspiring traders over the years, trained some of the current leading coaches/mentors, worked with some amazing authors/hedge funds and seen a lot of people make this work. The ones that don’t make it work are often the ones that think too much and try to reinvent the wheel - or be / think they are - smarter than the markets. Stop trying to hit a hole in one and start treating this like a business and look to make an average profit on a consistent basis. This will work for you, whatever and however you decide to do it.” – Phil Newton (Source: Trade2win.com) Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral For the most part of May 2016, EURUSD was in a downtrend. On June 3, a strong bullish breakout led to a bullish signal, but price was unable to continue moving up continuously in the following week, which was last week. Price simply went up 50 pips, hit the resistance line at 1.1400 and then nosedived. This has forced the market into a neutral territory, since the bullish gains of June 3 had been rendered useless by the strong bearish correction that took place within June 9 and 10 (whereas bears cannot claim any dominance until price goes below the resistance line at 1.1150). It is likely that EURUSD would continue to go downwards this week, though the bias may not turn bearish until the resistance line at 1.1150 is broken to the downside. For the bias to turn bullish again, price needs to go above the resistance line at 1.1350. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair decline 180 pips last week, going briefly below the support level at 0.9600 before closing above that support level. Since June 3, 2016, price has declined by 300 pips, reaching a weekly low of 0.9577. The support levels at 0.9600, 0.9550 and 0.9500 are the next targets for bears this week. Any movement above the resistance level at 0.9800 would put the bearish outlook in a precarious position. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Contrary to expectation, Cable moved south by 460 pips last week, after testing the distribution territory at 1.4650. Prior to this, price moved upwards by 260 pips between Monday and Tuesday. It has been mentioned that GBP pairs would experience strong volatility this month (plus NZD pairs). This is because GBP pairs usually move strongly in June while most other pairs experience low volatility. Bremain/Brexit issues are only a catalyst that will spur the usual strong movements on GBP pairs this June. This week, GBP might behave like it did last week: We would witness strong bullish and bearish movements. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USD/JPY merely went flat throughout last week. Even the faint bullish attempt that was seen on Monday and Tuesday meant nothing when compared to the ongoing bearish outlook. There is a possibility that JPY pairs would trend downwards this week, and so, USDJPY might go further south to test the demand levels at 106.00 and 105.50. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Between June 6 and 7, this cross went upwards close to 170 pips, but further rally was rejected at the supply zone at 122.50. From that zone, price went down 250 pips, to close at 120.37 on Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and further decline could be witnessed this week. Therefore, the demand zones at 120.00 and 110.00 would be interesting to watch. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Even after all these years, I still feel passionate about trading. I love trying to find profit opportunities. It's a great achievement when you can beat the pros.” - Jay McGivney Copyright: Tallinex.com

AUS200 Dominant bias: Bullish This market is in a precarious situation. While the bias on it is bullish, bears are very active in it the present, and this has made short-term bearish signals to be generated on smaller timeframes like hourly and 4-hour charts (whereas the long-term signal is bullish). Unless price goes below the support lines at 5200.0 and 5100.0, it would be safe to look for ways to buy pullbacks in this market. SPX500 Dominant bias: Bullish Since May 24, 2016, SPX500 has been trending upwards in a directional mode, though price has consolidated in the past few days. There is a “buy” signal in this market – it is expected that price would continue going upwards this month, reaching the resistance levels at 2120.0 and 2130.0. As long as price does not go below the support level at 2040.0, the “buy” signal would be rational. US30 Dominant bias: Bullish Although the dominant bias on this CFD is bullish, it is a very weak one. The market needs to go further upward in order to clear the ambiguity surrounding it, otherwise, things can turn neutral. A movement above the distribution territory at 18000.0 would reinforce the existing bullish outlook, while a movement below the accumulation territory at 17430.0 would render the bullish outlook invalid, leading to a more conspicuous bearish presence. GER30 Dominant bias: Bullish In the context of an uptrend, GER30 moved downwards last week, going below the supply levels at 10200.0 and 10160.0. Further southward movement, especially towards the demand levels at 9900.0 and 9850.0, would result on a bearish outlook. Right now, it is expected that price would make attempt to rally, for those demand levels ought to serve as checks to bears’ threats. FRA40 Dominant bias: Bullish Price has come down so far this month, but that is not yet significant enough to result in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Bulls ought to push price north by at least, 1000 points this month. For a Bearish Confirmation Pattern not to form here, price needs to stop going south. Should price drop further by 500 points, long trades would no longer look logical here. Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair moved sideways from Monday to Friday, in the context of a downtrend. The downtrend was forcefully overturned as the pair shot skywards by 220 pips on Friday, closing at 1.1365 on the same day. The bias has turned bullish, but there is a great challenge for bulls this week. While the pair could go further north, there would be a serious bearish correction when USD gains stamina versus EUR. The outlook on EUR is bearish for this month. EUR could be become weak versus other currencies – and USD is no exception. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish USDCHF tested the resistance level at 0.9950 several times last week, but it could not stay above it (let alone reaching the resistance level at 1.0000, which is a parity area). Price consolidated till Friday and then broke downwards, almost reaching the support level at 0.9750. This significant bearish breakout has resulted in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and price could reach the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650, as long as bears gain upper hands here. Should EURUSD loses its strength, USDCHF would experience some buying pressure. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD first attempted to go up last week, tested the distribution territory at 1.4700, and then moved south 300 pips, reaching the accumulation territory at 1.4400, before price made a rally effort on Friday, June 3. Most pairs and crosses would experience low volatility in June, save GBP pairs and NZD pairs (for NZD also would become strong versus other currencies in June). Yes, GBP pairs would experience high volatility this month; which would be a series of bearish and bullish movements. This week, some buying pressure might be witnessed on GBPUSD, for the accumulation territory at 1.4400 has checked repeated bearish attacks. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument went sideways on Monday and Tuesday, and began to drop like a stone from Tuesday. The bearish movement on Friday was the strongest, bringing the market to at least, 420 pips towards the south last week. Although this bearish trend could reverse this week, it is possible for price to reach the demand levels 106.00 and 105.50 before the potential reversal. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross made some effort to go upwards last week, but this effort was rendered futile after price reached the supply zone at 124.00. Since price could not break above that supply zone, a clean decline was witnessed as price came down, closing below the supply zone at 121.50. Just like USDJPY, it is possible for price to reach the demand zones at 120.50 and 120.00; even if there would be a bullish reversal after that. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “My world is trading and markets. This is where I am very comfortable and extremely confident…” – Sam Seiden Copyright: Tallinex.com

“Trading requires you to be wrong on a regular basis – in fact you are wrong more often than you are right. And this constant grind requires a certain degree of fortitude to endure.” – Chris Tate There’s no way to become victorious easily. You don’t become victorious by trying to be victorious. You become victorious be surmounting the challenges life puts in your way. Trading success doesn’t come by accident. You’d attain it through hard work, humble acceptance of reality, faithful endurance under difficult challenges. What a remarkable example for many traders today! Never forget that your breakthrough is largely in your own hands. Trading mastery isn’t beyond your ken, though you might emote that nothing good comes cheap. Where you’re coming from doesn’t matter, but where you’re going. Your dismal trading experiences shouldn’t deter you from attaining your dreams as a victorious trader. Difficult Markets Produce Fine Results Unlike those who become envious and sad when they see their fellow human beings making solid achievements in life, I’m happy whenever someone becomes successful in life. I’m happy whenever I come across a successful trader, just because it strengthens my conviction that it’s possible to be a winning trader. This also serves as a powerful testimony to doubting Thomases in the public. As a one-on-one trading coach (not via webinars or trading rooms), I’ve trained many people the art of trading and I’m happy whenever they go on to become successful market players. Some people completed their training and then abandoned the markets. Some didn’t bother to finish their training. Some completed their training and then abandoned the Golden Rules given to them, doing something else. Every strategy under the sun must be accompanied by the Golden Rules; otherwise the joy of trading won’t last long. I need to mention this fact: Trainees simply do themselves a favor when they get coached by successful traders who’re also talented teachers. It’s common for someone to think they’re doing you a favor by hiring you to coach them. Unless the coach isn’t a successful trader on her/his own (which is very common), it’s the coach who’s doing the trainees a favor by revealing their winning systems, which took them many years to perfect. It’s a great joy for me to see that some of my former trainees are now successful – a good evidence that difficult markets produce fine results. One of those successful traders who happened to be a past trainee is called Caleb by name. He got coached several years ago and undoubtedly, he was practicing with the markets. Last year, some of his acquaintances told me that Mr. Caleb had been making money from the markets. That was no big deal, for the Golden Rules of trading work for everybody who applies them faithfully, but what made me surprise was the fact that year 2015 was a very difficult year for traders, and if anyone made money in the markets in that year, then it’d be much easier for the person to make money in years when the markets become favorable. I began to plan an appointment with Mr. Caleb because his trading results in the year 2015 were 3 times better mine (who’s his former coach). Some days later, he sent me his full account history. I was amazed to see that he made decent profits in the most difficult months of that year. This guy wasn’t a lucky gambler who used high risk to make maximum profits in a short period of time. Instead, he’s a conservative trader who goes for very small but consistent profits. I was also amazed by these facts I discovered in his trading habits: 1. His was trading manually 2. His trading took him only 5 hour per week, for he was then working full time for an employer 3. His position sizing methods were safe and sensible 4. He used stop loss and stuck to them religiously 5. He’s one of the most disciplined traders I’ve ever seen. He sometimes cuts his negative positions before they hit his stops 6. He sometimes used take profits, but not always (a method exposing him to unlimited gains which can wipe out his many small losses) 7. He’s the fortitude and patience to endure days or weeks of losses, knowing that some big wins would soon wipe out those losses The above list is part of his secrets. I think some of these things are what every trader should do, irrespective of their trading methodology. One day, as I was walking beside a paved road on a campground, he pulled up his jeep and gave me a lift. We talked briefly and he gave me an appointment. I appreciated this because he was a very busy man. That’s another point. He was able to trade his way to success despite his very tight schedule, contrary to the excuses certain people give for not trying trading (they wrongly think they’re too busy to trade). I was able to see Mr. Caleb where he lived. He told me that the trading method he used was similar to what I gave him several years ago, but with some modification. What was this modification? That was what I wanted to know. Clearly a former trainee can become better than his coach. Mr. Caleb is a good example. He’s a bright trader indeed! I interviewed him about his entry criteria, risk control style and money management approach. What were his stop loss and take profit levels? What factors did he consider before making trades? What about his exit strategies? Mr. Caleb took out his laptop and explained everything to me in a generous and transparent way. The interview was an eye-opener. It would be posted in the second part of these series, so that you can gather some points that might potentially help you in your own trading too. This piece is ended by the quote below: “The fact that I trade my own strategy, in my own broker account, lets people know that I believe in my own work, and I'm willing to stand behind it with my own money.” - Jan Roozenburg Copyright: Tallinex.com

GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Gold dropped persistently in May 2016, reaching a high of 1303.53 and a low of 1199.79. This has resulted in a clean bearish outlook on the market, and in spite of the present weak bullish attempt, price is expected to continuing moving downwards this month, reaching the demand levels at 1170.00 and 1150.00. It is possible that price goes beyond these demand levels. The bearish outlook would be valid as long as price does not go above the supply levels at 1280.00 and 1290.00. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Just like its Gold counterpart, Silver also moved downwards seriously last month, going below the supply zones at 16.5600 and 16.2900. Price reached a low of 15.920 in that month, causing a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The market is currently quiet – which is a pause in the downtrend. Further downward move would resume this month, and could potentially take price towards the demand zones at 15.4600 and 15.000. The supply zones at 16.5000 and 17.000 would try to halt possible rallies along the way. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Domiant Bias: Bullish Bitcoin essentially consolidated in the months of March and April 2016 (though there was a vivid rally in the middle of April). In May, Bitcoin consolidated again, but broke out significantly in the last several days of the month. Needless to say, the breakout favored bulls: Price skyrocketed by over 10,000 pips within May 26 to 29, followed by the current shallow correction. The correction could continue, according to the behavior of this cryptocurrency, but it would not render the ongoing Bullish Confirmation Pattern ineffective. It is expected that price would go above the distribution territory at 600.00 this month. Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Last week, EURUSD went downwards 110 pips, just as it was projected. There is a bearish signal in the market, which would cause its weakness to hold out, as long as USD is stronger than EUR. The pair would continue trudging south this week, unless USD shows any signs of vulnerability. This means that EURUSD could rally in case USD shows any signs of weakness. EUR might also experience some gains against certain currencies. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This pair trended sideways last week, and moved slightly higher on Friday. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, coupled with a possibility of testing the resistance levels at 0.9950 and 1.0000 (a level of parity of USD with CHF). However, it is unlikely that the price would ever go above the resistance level at 1.0000, because a probable threat from CHF remains. CHF might gain strength versus certain majors – which could also affect USDCHF. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Cable moved upwards 200 pips, testing the distribution territory at 1.4700 on May 25. Price was unable to stay above that distribution territory, since bears fought successfully to halt further rally, effecting an 80-pip correction. This week, the probability of Cable rallying further is higher than the probability of it going south significantly. The outlook on the market is bullish, though constant presence of disgruntled bears is a threat. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This market was caught in an equilibrium phase throughout last week, with no bullish or bearish victory. Nonetheless, a closer examination reveals that bulls are still willing to push price northward; and they would gladly do so when conditions become favorable to them. In case bulls win, a bullish breakout to the supply levels at 111.00 and 111.50 might be witnessed. The possibility of a northward breakout would be in place as long as price does not go below the demand levels at 108.50 and 108.00. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This currency trading instrument has been going sideways for 2 weeks. The sideways phase would be in force until price crosses below the demand zone at 121.50, or above the supply zone at 125.50. Those demand and supply zones are strong, and unless price overcomes one of them, this sideways movement would remain. The longer the sideways movement is in place, the more imminent a breakout is (and the more directional the breakout would be when it occurs). This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “The big dogs are making an average profit over lots of occurrences utilizing modern technology and the plethora of ways that they can trade. Even so, the little guys with smaller sized accounts can complete with them and, in many cases, outperform them. That’s because they are small and don’t have liquidity issues or regulatory restraints.” – Phil Newton (Source: Trade2win) Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish EURUSD went downwards last week, closing below the resistance line at 1.1250. There is a bearish bias on the market, and the support lines at 1.1150 and 1.1100 could be tested. The only thing that can make this happen is continuous stamina in USD as compared to EUR; for the latter would try to gain some stamina this week, against other pairs (please watch EURCAD, EURCHF and EURJPY). Any show of vulnerability in USD might effect a rally in the market. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Based on the expectation last week, this pair was able to continue its northward journey. Price moved north roughly by 160 pips, closing slightly above the support level at 0.9900. There is one threat to the existing bullish outlook – the possibility of a rally in CHF. CHF might rally this week, which would affect CHF pairs, and as such, USDCHF would face some difficulties in journeying further upwards. For the pair to go upwards, USD must showcase more stamina that it has at the present. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral Last week, GBP gained strength versus other currencies as expected, and surprisingly against USD. GBPUSD went upwards by over 300 pips, reached the distribution territory at 1.4650, where the buying pressure was truncated. Further bullish movement would have resulted in a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, but as bears performed a check on the bullish movement, price got corrected by 140 pips, thereby forcing the market back into a neutral territory. There would be mixed signals in the market this week, since GBP would be strong versus some currencies, while weak versus some currencies. In case of GBPUSD, further rally is possible. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This market went upward more than 170 pips last week, getting to the supply level at 110.50. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and price might go further upwards this week, reaching the supply levels at 111.00, 111.50, and 112.00. There are demand levels at 109.00 and 109.50, which should resist bears’ machinations. The bullish outlook would make sense as long as price does not go below those demand levels. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral The EUR/JPY simply moved sideways last week, consolidating between the demand zone at 123.00 and the supply zone at 124.00. Possibility of a breakout is very strong this week, as price may assume a serious trending mode. However, when a breakout does occur, it could be in favor of bulls. Price might target the supply levels at 125.00 and 126.00; plus bullish effort would also be witnessed on certain other JPY pairs, like CHFJPY. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “When a trader sees the market as it really is, rather than what they want to see, the act of trading becomes more relaxed and they become more confident and successful. Does this sound like the type of experience you want trading to be?” – Rebecca Price (Van Tharp Institute) Copyright: Tallinex.com

“Trading can be a matter of probabilities. Sometimes you'll be at the right place at the right time; at other times you won't. That's all right. If you are consumed with perfection and finding the ultimate trading opportunity, you will often miss the trades that are right in front of your nose.” – Joe Ross Developing a Winning Trading Method There are repercussions to be experienced when using a certain approach. You have to think about various market conditions when creating a strategy; otherwise you would end up being frustrated. So what you need to do is to look for proven and time-tested trading setups. You would not only need to create a speculation approach that works in the long run, but you would also need to use it flawlessly in particular market conditions. This is what would let you appreciate the merit of such trading approach. 1. Your method needs to respect the dominant bias. Many veterans of the markets who have developed numerous trading strategies agree that they prefer to pick trades in the direction of the trend. 2. Honestly, it would also be helpful if the method can detect when the dominant bias would be coming to an end or when it would no longer be logical to follow it. This is the real secret behind consistency. 3. Define your entry points which stack the odds in your favor. For example, it is better to buy a pullback in the context of an uptrend or sell a rally in the context of a downtrend. This allows you to set optimal stops and targets. Buying a rally in the context of an uptrend may cause you to get stopped out before the price has the chance of moving in your favor. 4. You must always give yourself an RRR of 1:2 or 1:3. This ensures that you make money with only 40% or less hit rate. Then if your hit rate is 50% or above, how happy you will be! 5. It would be very difficult for you to sustain a huge roll-down on your account if you risk only 0.5% or 1% per trade. This also means that your losses are small and easily recovered. 6. Of course you continue to trades every new setup as long as you are winning. When your losses exceed a predetermined amount, you may stop trading for the day if you are an intraday trader, or stop trading for the week if you are a swing trader, or stop for the month if you are a position trader. This is the best way to avoid continuous losses in a losing streak. By the time you resume trading, it is probable that you would stumble on a winning streak. For example, I stop trading for the month if I go down more than 7%. Conclusion It is normal to become emotional after a losing streak. However, veterans remain calm in a losing streak. They believe in their strategies. They simply know that a winning streak is around the corner, and they remain faithful to their trading rules. This has become their second nature, so easy. This is not easy for noobs who tend to ignore the realities of trading. Market wizards experience losses triumphantly. You too need to use subtle approaches and recognize great trading opportunities. According to Jack Schwager, if you asked most people to categorize good trades and bad trades, you would find the answers to be quite simple… If it makes money it’s a good trade, and if it loses money, it’s a bad trade. That’s not true at all… His quote ends this piece: “Any approach will give you instances of winning or losing. If you have an effective approach, you will hopefully make more money than you lose. If you take a trade that follows your process exactly (whatever that process may be… fundamental, technical or otherwise), and if that trade loses money, that was not a bad trade. It’s only a bad trade if you deviate from your process and lose money. I would go further and say that if you deviate from your process and make money, it’s still a bad trade. People have to differentiate between trades that are consistent with a winning strategy, and trades that are inconsistent. That’s the mark of good and bad trades.” (Source: Thoughteconomics.com) Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair simply moved sideways in the first few days of last week – a result of deadlock between bulls and the bears. On May 12, 2016, the bears were pummeled and forced to give way, as price moved south vividly, just as it was mentioned in the last forecast. Further southward movement is anticipated this week, because USD is supposed to gain strength versus a number of major currencies, like AUD, CAD, NZD; with EUR included. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish As it was forecasted before, USDCHF managed to go upwards last week, in spite of desperate opposition from bears. The bullish movement last week was not up to 100 pips. Price is now around the resistance level at 0.9750 (below our targets for last week). The targets at 0.9800 and 0.9850 are still valid: Bulls would push the market upwards, plus price could even go beyond those resistance levels. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral GBPUSD was caught in an equilibrium phase throughout last week, save the slight dip that was witnessed on Friday. In the past several days, price has not been able to stay above the distribution territory at 1.4500 or below the accumulation territory at 1.4350. A breakout is imminent this week, which would favor bears because USD could gain some stamina this week. However, GBP would make some gains against other currencies, especially AUD and NZD, since the outlook on them is bearish for this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral USDJPY moved upwards on Monday and Tuesday, and then consolidated for the rest of last week. Since this pair, just like most other pairs, did not experience strong movement last week, the bias on it has turned neutral in the short-term. However there is a probability of tour de force this week, which could trigger a significant movement on USDJPY, driving it above the supply level at 110.50 or below the demand level at 107.50. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral The initial bullish gains that were seen on the first few days of last week were forfeited as a result of a bearish movement that occurred in the last few days of the week. There is a considerable degree of uncertainty surrounding this cross at the moment. But a major determinant of the movement for this week would be conditions affecting Yen, for it to rally or lose strength. Those conditions would also have impact on other JPY pairs. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Too often, people fail to differentiate wins that come from the market and wins that come from skill.” - Jack Schwager Source: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral EURUSD went upwards on Monday and Tuesday, topping at 1.1615. Since then, price has come down by over 200 pips, closing at 1.1403 on Friday. It is clear that the gains made by bulls have been erased by bears, but the bias on the market would not really turn bearish until price goes below the support line at 1.1300. That is exactly what is expected this week: The outlook on EUR is bearish and the currency would be weakened against other majors. By the end of this week, there could be a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on EURUSD. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Between Monday and Tuesday, this pair dipped into the support level at 0.9450. From that support level, further dip was rejected as price assumed a clean northwards movement, closing on Friday, above the support level at 0.9700. That was a movement of over 280 pips! This week, the market area to be attacked first would the resistance level at 0.9750, after which bulls would carry their battle towards other resistance levels at 0.9800 and 0.9850. The bullishness on USDCHF ought to have become more conspicuous by the end of this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish Here, bulls managed to push price towards the distribution territory at 1.4750 – a juncture at which they were overpowered by bears. Price has come down 320 pips since then, closing below the distribution territory at 1.4450. What next? Since the outlook on USD is bright for this week, GBPUSD might have some difficulties going upwards (although that is not an impossibility). On the other hand, GBP would be strong in its own right, and it may be seen going upwards versus other currencies like EUR, AUD, and NZD. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument simply consolidated throughout last week, though in the context of a downtrend. The possible direction on USDJPY is ambiguous for this week. We might see bears pushing the pair further southward; whereas it is a probability that could be frustrated by expected stamina in USD. The monthly outlook on JPY pairs is bearish till around the end of the May, when they might rally. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Last week, this cross also behaved almost similarly to USDJPY. There were fleeting upwards and downwards swings on the cross, while the bias remained bearish. This week, we could see further bearish movement on the cross, which might take price below the demand zones at 121.50 and 121.00. Since the current outlook on JPY pairs is bearish and EUR is also expected to be weakened, EURJPY should decline further. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “I was born in San Juan City, Argentina. It is very close to the Andes Mountains. I have a degree in Business Administration. I've always been interested in trading, but what really forced my hand, and made me absolutely need to become a full-time trader, was a conversation I once had with a professor. When he learned I was experimenting with different automated trading algorithms, he laughed and told me I was a fool to think I could beat the market. Challenge accepted! From that moment, I became a trader!” - Maximiliano Lepez (Source: Collective2.com) Copyright: Tallinex.com

GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Gold was quite choppy in the first three weeks of April 2016, characterized by short-term upswings and downswings, all in the context of an uptrend. In the last week of April, Gold experienced a sustained trending movement. Price moved upwards by 6500 pips last week alone, breaking one resistance level after another. Last month, price closed at 1292.80, on a strong bullish note. The bullish movement is supposed to continue in this month of May, taking price towards the resistance levels at 1300.00, 1350.00 and 1400.00. Of course there would be transitory dips along the way, but these should be approached as opportunities to go long at better prices. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Unlike Gold, which moved unpredictably in the first half of April, Silver moved upwards persistently in April, reaching a low of 14.7550 and a high of 17.9300. This was serious bullish movement of about 3000 pips in April, and there is a strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern in 4-hour and daily charts. Last month, price closed above the support level at 17.7000, and it would go upwards from there, reaching the resistance levels at 18.0000, 18.5000 and 19.0000 within the month of May. Any pullbacks witnessed in this market should be taken as being transient, for bulls would come in to push price higher, forming higher lows and higher highs in the market. Source: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The EURUSD moved upwards 230 pips last week – an action that has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the 4-hour chart. The resistance line at 1.1450 has been tested and it would be breached to the upside, as price targets other resistance lines at 1.1500 and 1.1550. However, the month of May 2016 would be challenging for bulls because EUR would be weak in some cases. There is an exception of course, like EURAUD, because AUD would be weak against other currencies in May. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair merely went in the opposite direction to EURUSD. Price dropped 220 pips and later closed below the resistance level at 0.9600. There is now a bearish outlook on the market and further southwards movement is possible this week, Bears might push the pair towards the support lines at 0.9550 and 0.9500. There cannot be a reversal of this bearish movement unless there is a serious weakness in EURUSD. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD was able to rally gradually last week, reaching the distribution territory at 1.4650. Bulls fought desperately at the distribution territory at 1.4600; only to meet another strong opposition at the distribution territory at 1.4650. Bulls should be able to overcome the opposition at this distribution territory, owing to the bullish outlook on GBPUSD (and most other GBP pairs like GBPAUD and GBPNZD) for the month of May 2016. Price would move up further by 200 pips this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This currency trading instrument went sideways from Monday to Wednesday, and then dropped like a stone on Thursday. Price dropped by 500 pips, closing below the supply level at 106.50. There has been a bearish signal in the market, including other JPY pairs. This bearish movement is supposed to continue this week as price action is characterized by lower highs and lower lows. Short-term rallies can be taken as short-selling opportunities. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Just as it was mentioned in the last forecast, EURJPY cross first trudged upwards from April 25 to 27, and then plummeted. The drop was significant enough to overturn the recent bullish gains, causing a Bearish Confirmation Pattern to form in the market. Price has gone below the supply zones at 124.00, 123.00 and 122.00, reaching out for the demand zones beneath them. The outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for the month of May. Therefore, long trades do not make sense here until there is a strong bullish reversal in the market: something that may take place before the end of May. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: "The goal of a successful trader is to make the best trades. Money is secondary." – Dr. Alexander Elder Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This pair was bearish last week. Bulls tried to push price upwards. But as a result of severe opposition from bears, price came down on Friday, following the volatility that occurred on Thursday. There is a “sell” signal in the market, and it may probably go further downwards this week, reaching the support lines at 1.1200 and 1.1150. Price might even go below these targets, and the “sell” signal would never be invalidated until the resistance line at 1.1400 is overcome. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish The current bullish movement on this pair started on Wednesday, April 20, 2016. This has led to a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and it is likely that price would continue its bullish movement this week, reaching the resistance levels at 0.9800 and 0.9850. A movement beyond these resistance levels is even possible: though there is one obstacle in the way of USDCHF, and that is an expected strength in CHF before the end of this week. Please watch CHF pairs. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish As it was mentioned last week, GBP was able to rally against certain majors, which is visible on some crosses like GBPNZD, GBPJPY, GBPCHF, EURGBP, etc. GBPUSD also was bullish last week in spite of desperate struggles of bears against it. From the accumulation territory at 1.4150 the price trended upwards, with some pullbacks on the way, reached the distribution territory at 1.4450, before the market closed on a slight retracement. Price moved upwards by roughly 300 pips last week; plus further northward movement is expected this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish USDJPY went upwards by 370 pips last week. At the beginning of last week, price gapped down slightly into the demand level at 108.00, and since then a rally started gradually (from Monday to Thursday). That rally gained momentum on Friday, April 22, 2016, and this has resulted in an invalidation of the recent bearish outlook on the market. The bias is now bullish and further northward movement of at least, 150 pips, is expected this week. One thing must be noted: There is also a possibility of a strong bearish movement on USDJPY (and of course, other JPY pairs) before the end of this week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This currency trading instrument also went bullish last week by 360 pips, after price ran into a solid demand zone at 122.00 at the beginning of last week. On Friday, price closed above the demand zone at 125.00, now very close to the supply zone at 125.50. This has rendered the recent bearish outlook on the market useless. The market would continue moving north this week, since there is now a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, but that does not rule out probability00 of a pullback before the end of this month. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Markets are a reflection of rational human behavior — whether 5min or monthly chart. This fractal nature of markets is due to humans’ psychological make-up. Until we evolve into a new species, price action will always be the same.” – Gabriel Grammatidis Copyright: Tallinex.com

“Although I’ve witnessed uncountable demo contests the world over, these are the most impressive results I’ve ever seen, despite the vagaries of the markets.” – Analyst75 Honestly, my plan for this week was to post an article about Alan Howard, a self-made billionaire trader, in our Master Traders series. Nonetheless, I’d to change my mind and post what you’re reading today, as a result of outstanding results of a just concluded demo contest. I don’t like to sound like promoting anyone or any firm, but doubting Thomases need to see this. Perhaps they’d admit that trading success is attainable. A Trading Firm Announces a Demo Contest In early March 2016, I unexpectedly came across this announcement: “Get ready to take part in something new... something different! The starting clock is counting down to the first “(company name withheld)” trading competition of 2016... and the prizes are huge! This is a demo-trading contest because we wanted anyone and everyone to take part... we just decided to make things more interesting by offering bigger prizes than most live-trading competitions. So... if you have ever thought of taking part in a trading competition, then this is the competition to take part in! Competition entrants will go head-to-head - each trading a $2,500 micro account with 1:400 leverage. There are no restrictions - competitors are free to trade any strategy... whether manual, automated, or both. Come early, or come late - you will be able to dive in and join the fun right up until April 15th.” The competition started in March 13, 2016 and ended on the day mentioned in the preceding paragraph. There are no trading/withdrawal restrictions on prize monies. When a Broker Doesn’t Impose Restrictions Let’s be frank here, the kind of broker you use really matters in your trading success. It’s one of the big factors in your profitability as a trader. I hate FIFO rules. I hate restrictions on strategies, like hedging, automation, etc. I like a broker that doesn’t interfere with trading strategies and styles, no matter what they’re. I like brokers that don’t trade against me or manipulate my traders. I like brokers that don’t impose restrictions on me. Let me use any trading styles I like and be responsible for the outcome. Professional traders thrive when they’re uninhibited by unfair restrictions. I saw the most impressive results in my life because a trading firm doesn’t impose any restrictions on traders/competitors. As far as the trading firm which organized the contest is concerned, their demo accounts are almost similar to live accounts. You receive transactions alerts into your inbox as if you were using live accounts. The Number One Contestant – A Mad Trader The contest started, and at the end of the first week, the number one guy had turned 2,500 USD to $63,000 USD. By Thursday of the second week of the contest duration, his equity stood at 106,000 USD. On the following day (Friday), his equity reached 109,000 USD; but he suffered a drawdown that day. His equity dropped to 73,000 USD. I told my boss in the office: “This guy is an exceptionally good trader. Even if the contest ends now, he’s already made an impressive result by turning 2,500 USD to 73,000 USD just in two weeks.” My boss nodded in agreement. In the third week of the contest, the top guy raised his equity from 73,000 USD to 79,000 USD. At the end of the third week, the equity stood at 136,000 USD. In the last week, he raised the equity to 666,000 USD. On April 14, in the afternoon, I showed the result to my boss. The guy’s equity was already 695,000 USD. Three hours later, I was visiting a friend of mine when I checked the contest results, the guy’s equity was then 1,080,000 USD! I called my boss on phone to inform him. He was too surprised. Early on Friday – the day the contest was to finish – the guy’s equity had been turned to 1,350,000 USD. At the end of the contest, his closed balance was 1,433,480 USD. Here is more info about the guy’s results: Contestant name: A.D. Position: 1st Opening balance: 2,500 USD Volume traded: 34,230.80 lots Number of trades: 316 trades Final balance 1,433,480 USD Gains: 57,239.20% Contest duration: 4 weeks Prize money: 5,000 USD The contestant who came second turned 2,500 USD into 741,365 (29,554.60%). The contestant who came third turned 2,500 USD into 713,076 (28,423.04%). All within 4 weeks. I’ll not mention astounding results of many other traders in that contest. Is This Realistic? Another popular broker in Europe just finished their demo contest on April 15, 2016; the duration was like that of demo contest detailed here and the person taking the highest position made only 331.78% profits in 4 weeks (though nearly 2500 people registered for the contest). I can tell you that 331.78% in 4 weeks is an impressive return. But who can argue with 57,239.20% in 4 weeks? It means you could’ve gained at least 57,200 USD in 4 weeks if you invested only 100 USD and got that kind of results in terms of percentage! Is this realistic? Yes and No. Yes, because the results are true, and because the trading firm involved allows trading conditions on virtual accounts to be exactly similar to those of live accounts. No, because contestants used excessive leveraging, which might be too pernicious when trading on real accounts. But I also believe that they would’ve made impressively decent profits even when they risked 1% per trade, using risk control features, and compounding their accounts for one year. As a professional trader myself, I personally witnessed the vagaries of the markets during the whole contest duration. I witnessed fake-outs, strong trending movements, short-squeezes, false breakouts, reversals, traps, equilibrium phases, random volatility etc. Regardless of these random and unpredictable behavior of the markets, those awesome traders made astounding profits. Who Is That Mad Genius? As I said earlier, I’m not advertising anything here. I don’t know the mad genius in person, but I’m a witness to his gargantuan results. I just wanted readers to know that there are talented traders on this planet. I suspect those traders used automated or semi-automated strategies. The firm that organized the contest might try to interview the top trader or the top three or the top five. I don’t know whether this would be done, but I can guarantee you that if the top trader (that mad guy) is interviewed, the interview would be included in one of my future articles; the Master Traders series. Conclusion: There are many, many traders who can speculate successfully. If you’re one of those doubting Thomases who think success is impossible in the markets, this article was written to prove you wrong. Can you now see that, while there are losing traders, there are also hugely successful traders? Do you want to be like them? You can be like them if you really want to! To be candid, I’d no intention of using any link to prove my point, owing to the fact that I don’t want to appear like promoting anything. On the other side, if I don’t show any links, readers who easily come in and say: “You know that blogger/forumer is a smart liar.” I don’t want to claim something that got no proof. It’s sad that many readers wouldn’t believe me if I didn’t make any reference. Nevertheless, if you were curious enough, you might want to see the proof. Then send your request to: Tallinex.com/leaderboard As from next week, I’ll resume posting my usual articles. This article is ended with the quote below: “People lose money for various reasons, mostly they are not ready to compete against the best, it is like a five year old playing basketball against a seven footer, people think it is a even playing field, it is not, MOST are BAIT and the few are WHALES, Whale doesn't have to attack any of the bait, whale just opens his mouth and swims. Some of the brightest people come to the markets thinking their brain will overcome experience, I certainly can't bend microwaves, but I know the probabilities of swing distance of ES in first hour of ES. And there are differences when it comes to bending microwaves, YOU are working for someone and I work for myself.” – Handle123 (Source: Elitetrader.com) Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral EURUSD traded lower last week, testing the support line at 1.1250, to close at 1.1282 on Friday. The movement of the price has essentially been sideways since the beginning of April and there is no significant directional journey till now. However, there is a possibility that bulls would effect a rally this week, which might enable price to reach the resistance lines at 1.1350, 1.1400 and 1.1450. In addition, EUR pairs could be seen strengthening against other majors. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair moved upwards last week, in the context of a downtrend. Price tested the support level at 0.9500 and later rose above the support level 0.9650, which means the downtrend is currently being threatened. A movement above the resistance level at 0.9750 would mean the end of the downtrend, but that would probably not happen. The outlook on USD for this week is bearish, and as such, further southward movement could be witnessed before the end of the week, which could cause price to reach the support levels at 0.9600, 0.9550 and 0.9500. This could cause the existing downtrend to be strengthened eventually. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral The GBPUSD was volatile throughout last week, with neither bulls nor bears having upper hands. There should be a directional movement this week, which would most probably be in favor of bulls. This means the market could rally this week, reaching the distribution territories at 1.4300, 1.4350 and 1.4400. The accumulation territories at 1.4100 and 1.4050 may do a good job in thwarting bearish attempts this week. Some GBP pairs might also rally, like GBPCAD. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish From April 11 to 14, this currency trading instrument trended upwards by 190 pips. On April 15, price got corrected lower, in conjunction with the existing bearish bias. This means the rally that was seen between April 11 and 14 was a mere short-term rally in the context of a downtrend. Further bearish movement is expected this week, which might make price go down by at least 150 pips. Any rallies seen this week should be taken as short-selling opportunities. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross, which dropped steeply in the first week of this month, was caught in an equilibrium phase last week. Price would go out of the equilibrium phase this week, and most likely go further southward, owing to the Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price closed below the supply zone at 123.00 on Friday. In case price breaks out to the south, the demand zones at 122.00 and 121.50 might be tested. There cannot be a threat to the current Bearish Confirmation Pattern unless the supply zone at 126.00 is overcome. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Support and resistance levels are generally more porous in volatile markets. Common sense suggests that, in these conditions, you should give the trade more room.” - Lee Bohl Copyright: Tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish In the context of a downtrend, EURUSD consolidated throughout last week. One big formidable barrier to further northward journey is the resistance line 1.1400 (though the resistance line at 1.1450 was also tested). Bulls were unable to breach the resistance line at 1.1400 to the upside in spite of many forays into it. This week would be decisive for the pair. First, a breakout to the upside or the downside would happen. It would most probably be to the downside, should bulls fail to push price above the aforementioned resistance line. In case, price goes above the resistance line and remain above it, it would spell a defeat for bears. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair experienced a flat movement last week, not reaching, nor going below the support level at 0.9500 in spite of the fact that the bias is bearish. By the indication in the chart, the market would most likely go further south this week, which would be corroborated by the ability of USDCHF to go below the support level at 0.9500. In case the pair fails to achieve this, a considerable rally would be witnessed. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish Cable was very volatile last week – reaching a high of 1.4319 and a low of 1.4004. The overall sentiment is negative, but bulls are not keeping their fingers crossed in this situation, for they are making attempts to effect a rally. One thing should be noted: The possibility of GBP gaining stamina is very high this week. GBP might be seen strengthening versus other major pairs; an event that could start this week. Therefore, the current bearish bias on the market might be challenged and eventually invalidated. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Since March 29, 2016, USDJPY has dropped by nearly 600 pips. Last week alone, price dropped by at least, 350 pips. This has caused a strong Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. After all, it had been forecasted that that JPY pairs might become weak before the end of this month, and the weakness started earlier than anticipated. On USDJPY, bears are still determined to reach the demand levels at 107.50, 107.00 and 106.50. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross dropped 450 pips last week alone, almost testing the demand zone at 122.50. The shallow northward effort that was witnessed around the end of the weak is cleanly negligible, for price is expected to continue its southwards journey this week, reaching the support zones at 122.50, 122.00 and 121.50. Long trades do not look rational in the market, unless there is a clear sign of Yen easing. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “When you take action, and make enough trades, the odds may work in your favor, and you'll end up with profits. So as you trade, take an action-oriented approach. As Mark Douglas suggests in "Trading in the Zone," the more you find excuses to avoid making trades, the less likely you'll be at actually taking home profits. But if you look for an edge, and use this edge to make numerous trades, you'll increase your chances of success. In trading, there are proven strategies that work under specific market conditions. If you look hard enough, you'll find them, and use them to your advantage.” – Joe Ross (Source: Tradingeducators.com) Copyright: Tallinex.com

GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish On the daily chart, Gold is in an uptrend; whereas a lower timeframe like the 4-hour chart shows that there is bearish pressure on the market. In the context of an uptrend, price was engaged in a bearish correction throughout the month of March, causing price to reach a monthly low of 1208.18. Attempted rallies were often followed by pullbacks, as evident in lower highs and lower lows in the market. Things could turn bearish, in case price goes below the demand level at 1170.00 (which would require a significant selling pressure). Should price fail to drop below the demand level at 1170.00, a protracted rally may start, in conjunction with the recent bullish outlook. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Just like its Gold counterpart, Silver is bullish on the daily chart and bearish on the 4-hour chart. This is a very volatile market, which means that the current volatility should be taken into consideration, since it could continue for the next several days. In the last month, price reached a high of 16.1100; but the bullish effort is often frustrated by the bearish machination (stronger dips). It is logical to assume that whatever happens to Gold would rub off on Sliver. Should the former go south as mentioned earlier, the latter would test the demand zone at 14.4000, thereby frustrating the current Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. A rally on Gold would also help Silver to assume a considerable amount of bullishness. Source: Tallinex.com