analyst75

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The market was bearish from Monday to Wednesday, and then began to make some bullish effort, which eventually paid for. From the middle of last week, price rose by 270 pips, to test the resistance line at 1.2200. That resistance line remains under siege, for it would easily be breached to the upside this week, as price gain at least, another 150 pips. The outlook on EUR pairs remains bullish. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair made some weak bullish effort from January 8 to 10, almost reaching the resistance level at 0.9850. However, further bullish attempt was rejected as a bearish movement was assumed, which ended up generating a bearish signal in the market. From the high of last week, price dropped by 170 pips, closing below the resistance level at 0.9700 on Friday. The outlook on USDCHF is bearish for this week, for the market would face attacks from two fronts: CHF would gain some stamina, and a strong EURUSD would help ensure continuous bearish pressure on USDCHF. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The bullish breakout that was witnessed in this market has ended the protracted consolidation in the market, which had held out for several weeks (save the bullish attempt that occurred in the last week of December 2017). GBPUSD moved upwards by 200 pips on Friday alone, and since GBP pairs would be somewhat bullish this week, it is logical to expect the bullish movement to continue, reaching the distribution territory at 1.3750 and 1.3800. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY went south by 214 last week, making several unsuccessful attempts to break the demand level at 111.00 to the downside. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the chart, which supports a bearish outlook on the market. That means the demand level at 111.00 would be breached to the downside, as price journeys further southwards to towards the demand levels at 110.50, 110.00, and 109.50. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral Although the market was mostly bullish within the last 4 weeks, the bullishness was challenged last week as price dropped 320 pips from Monday to Wednesday. Nonetheless, the upwards bounce that was seen in the market on Thursday and Friday was strong enough to challenge its short-term bearishness. Only a movement of 100 pips to the upside would result in a strong “buy” signal; whereas a movement to the south, even by 150 pips, would help put more emphasis on the recent bearishness in the market. Until one of these directional movement happens, the bias on the market would remain somehow neutral. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross dropped 310 pips from Monday to Wednesday, consolidated on Thursday, and bounced upwards on Friday. Generally, the bias on the market is bullish: The pullback that happened in the first few days of last week appears to be offering an opportunity to buy long at better prices. Thus, the supply zones at 152.50, 153,00 and 153.50 would be targeted this week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading is a simple profession since it can be summed up in three ideas. If it is trending up over the time frame you are trading you buy it. If it trending down over the time frame you are trading you sell it. Don’t bet the farm. It is hardly rocket science yet despite this our very nature more often than not defeats us despite the evidence that it shouldn’t.” – Chris Tate Source: http://www.tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The market essentially consolidated throughout last week – in the context of an uptrend. Although price did not go seriously upwards or downwards last week, that stance is going to change this week (for price would assume a directional movement). It is much more likely that price would continue going upwards, owing to bullish expectations on EUR pairs. So at least 150 pips may be gained this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair was caught in an equilibrium movement last week (although the overall bias on the market is bearish). Unlike the equilibrium phase of last week, there is going to be a strong breakout this week, which would, nonetheless, respect the ongoing bearish bias. This is because there would be selling pressures on USDCHF, except EURUSD drops sharply. At least, a southwards movement of 100 pips is expected from here, reaching the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This trading instrument went upwards last week, to test the distribution territory at 1.3600, before dropping lower. So far, the drop has been shallow and that has not overridden the bullish bias on the market, unless the accumulation territory at 1.3400 is breached to the downside, which would require a heavy selling pressure. The distribution territory at 1.3600 could be tested again. It could even be breached to the upside. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Last week, USDJPY rejected further bearish effort as it went upwards by 110 pips, thereby generating a short-term “buy” signal. Price managed to close above the demand level at 113.00 on Friday, thus making further northwards movement a possibility. This means the supply levels at 113.50 and 114.00 could be reached this week. Nevertheless, there is a present risk of a large pullback on JPY pairs. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross went upwards last week, reached the supply zone at 136.50 and ended the week in a bearish correction. Since December 15, 2017, price has gained over 400 pips; plus it would be somewhat difficult for a lasting bearish movement to occur in the market, as long EUR is strong. The targets for this week are located at the supply zones of 136.50, 137.00 and 137.50. There are demand zones at 135.00 and 134.50. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish GBPJPY experienced a strong bullish movement last week, moving from the demand zone at 152.00, to reach the supply zone at 153.50. It is possible that price would gain another 200 pips this week, as price goes further northwards. However, the more the market goes upwards, the more the chances of a bearish correction, which may be significant enough to challenge the ongoing bullish outlook. That is expected to happen anytime this month. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “…We need a strategy that produces profits on a consistent basis, the self-discipline that executes that strategy and the focus to achieve our goals.” - Gabe Velazquez Source: http://www.tallinex.com

GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Gold dropped massively in the first half of last month, reaching a low of 1236.21 on December 12, 2017. At that juncture, further bearish movement was rejected, as price went upwards by 7000 pips, ending the month on a strong bullish note. There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market and further bullish movement is anticipated throughout this month, although that does not rule out possibilities of temporary pullbacks along the way. Overall, Gold is supposed to gain at least, another 2000 pips in January. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish The movement on Silver last month was quite similar to the movement on Gold. Actually, November was flat, but a bearish movement was started in that month, which ran into December (until December 12, reaching a low of 15.6114). After the low of December was reached, the market assumed a strong bullish rally, which held out for the rest of December. Having gained 15,000 pips (before the current shallow bearish retracements), there is a strong bullish bias on the market. This means Silver would continue going upwards this January, reaching resistance levels at 17.2000, 17.5000 and 17.8000. The resistance level at 17.8000 may even be exceeded. Source: http://www.tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern on the market. Price went upwards by 170 pips last week, almost managing to close barely above the support line at 1.2000. While there could be further bullish effort this week, it is not may not take price above the resistance line at 1.2100, because the outlook on the market is strongly bearish for this week, and mostly bearish for January as whole. Therefore, the days on the current bullish bias are numbered. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument was vividly engaged in a bearish movement last week, thus ending the short-term equilibrium phase that occurred around the middle of December. The market dipped by 160 pips last week, closing below the resistance level at 0.9750. Further bearish movement is expected this week, which could take price towards the support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9650. USD would try to amass some stamina sometimes this week, but that would not make a significant bullish difference (until EURUSD dips), because CHF itself would become strong versus many major currencies this month, and USD included. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair, which was mostly moving sideways in December, managed to start a bullish movement last week. A close above the accumulation territory at 1.3500 means the sideways phase is temporarily over. The bullish bias would hold out only as long as price is able to stay above the accumulation territory at 1.3450. There would be strong movements on this pair, as well as other GBP pairs, in January, and most of the movements would be bearish. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY is bearish in the short-term, and neutral in the long-term. Price consolidated on Monday and Tuesday, dropped on Wednesday, and maintained the drop till end of the week. This is what has created the short-term bearishness in the market. Since the outlook on JPY pairs is somewhat bearish for this week, it is expected that the bearish movement would continue, thus targeting the demand levels at 112.50 and 112.00. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Unlike what USDJPY did, EURJPY managed to go upwards last week, breaching the demand zone at 135.00 and testing the supply zone at 135.50, before closing below it. One factor responsible for this is the stamina on EUR, and there is a possibility that price would be able to go above the supply level at 135.50 (even reaching another supply zone at 136.00 and moving above it as well). However, risk of a large bearish run exists, since the outlook on most JPY pairs is bearish for the week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross has been able to sustain the “buy” signal it generated in the middle of December. The upwards movement is slow and gradual, and it may survive as price gains another 100 pips this week. Nonetheless, there is a possibility of a bearish movement starting before the end of the week – or sometimes this month - for GBP could become week. Additional factor is also a possible strengthening of Yen. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “If traders cannot accept the losses that go with the trading, they do not deserve the profits. Failure is the greatest teacher only when a student is prepared to learn. If the student has forgotten previous lessons, or the dog ate his homework, he is not ready. A positive attitude has positive expectations of future events and normally precedes the success it creates.” – Andy Jordan Source: http://www.tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair is bullish in the short-term, but neutral in the long-term. Price rose from the support line at 1.1750 and tested the resistance line at 1.1900 (a movement of 150 pips). However, price closed below the resistance line on Friday. Bulls might still be able to sustain the short-term bullishness in the market, till the end of the year. The support line at 1.1750 would resist a bearish bias from forming this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral This trading instrument did not make any significant movement last week, neither is it expected to make any significant movement this week (because volatility would thin out). Price is thus expected to oscillate between the resistance level at 0.9950 and support level at 0.9800 within the next several trading days. However, a breakout will occur early January, which would result in a directional bias, ending this current neutrality in the market. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral The GBPUSD consolidated throughout last week, forming no directional movement. The price has generally swung between the distribution territory at 1.3450 and the accumulation territory at 1.3300. Generally the current neutrality will exist as long as price swings between the distribution territory at 1.3500 and the accumulation territory at 1.3250. Such is the condition that will exist for the rest of this year. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish There is a short-term bullish bias on the USDJPY, but it is not strong. Price gained 100 pips last week, from the demand level at 112.50 to the supply level at 113.50. After the supply level at 113.50 was tested, price retraced towards the southwards, but that is not a threat to current short-term bias. This week, a big price swing is not expected unless an unexpected fundamental figure comes out from the blue. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish There is a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Here, price rose up more than 200 pips (from the demand zone at 132.50 to the supply zone at 134.50). The supply zone at 134.50 was briefly surmounted before price went below it on December 22. The bullish bias is anticipated to hold out for the rest of the year, in spite of any bearish attempts along the way. The demand zones at 133.50, 133.00 and 132.50 would impede bearish pulls in the market. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The GBPJPY cross rose upwards last week, and then started to consolidate on Thursday (till the end of the week). Further sideways movement in the market, especially for a few more trading days, would result in a neutral bias. A movement to the upside (towards the supply zone at 152.50) would help strengthen the current bullish bias; and a strong movement to the downside (towards the demand zone at 149.50) would erase the bullish bias. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “One of my first jobs was at a bank working in credit risk management, and it was there that I discovered my love for financial markets and trading in general. I’ve always loved strategy games and for me, trading is the ultimate way to formulate real strategy. If a trade works well for you, you get a reward…” - Andrés Padrones Source: http://www.tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral This pair is bearish in the short-term, and neutral in the long-term. Price has gradually come down since November 27, and it is now around the support line at 1.1750, and it may go lower to test other support lines at 1.1700 and 1.1650 this week. There would be some selling pressure on the market, which could hold throughout December. A meaningful rally would be somewhat difficult. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish Although USDCHF is bearish in the short-term (and neutral in the long-term), it is likely that price would go upwards, moving above the resistance levels at 0.9950 and 1.0000, and therefore erasing the short-term bearishness. This pair would be able to enjoy some form of bullishness as long as EURUSD is under selling pressure, and this is a situation that may hold out for most part of December. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The Cable is also slightly bearish in the short-term, but neutral in the long-term. A movement towards the accumulation territories at 1.3300 and 1.3250 would help strengthen the extant short-term bearishness; while a movement above the distribution territories at 1.3450 and 1.3500 would halt the bearishness. It is possible for the overall neutrality to end when the market assumes a protracted directional movement. USDJPY Dominant bias: Neutral The market went sideways on Monday and Tuesday, and then began to come down on Wednesday. If price had not closed above the demand level at 112.50, there would have been a “sell” signal in the short-term. The neutrality in the market is vivid, and will end once price goes above the supply level at 114.00; or it goes below the demand level at 111.50. This condition may not be fulfilled again this month, because the kind of volatility that would bring this about may not happen this month. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral EURJPY is currently a good example of a consolidating market. The consolidation has been in place since September 2017, and that is the how the situation would be until year 2017 is over. However, there are short-term signals that are brought about by temporary upswings and downswings in the market, which give excellent opportunities to buy dips and sell rallies as price oscillates along the way. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This cross is bearish in the short-term (but neutral in the long-term). Price went downwards by more than 200 pips, creating a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The bearish movement is expected to continue as price targets the demand zones at 149.50, 149.00 and 148.50, which would be reached this week or next. There could be rallies along the way, but they are not expected to bring about a bullish bias. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “When it comes to trading in the trend, you do not always have to be first, but you do not want to be wrong.” - Brandon Wendell Source: http://www.tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market is bearish in the short-term, for price went southwards throughout last week, moving briefly below the support line at 1.1750 and then closing above that support line on Friday. Other support lines at 1.1700 and 1.1650 could be tested this week, provided there is a serious selling pressure in the market. There are resistance lines at 1.1850, 1.1900 and 1.1950, which should impede serious rallies. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This pair is bullish in the short-term, as it went northwards throughout last week, moving briefly above the resistance level at 0.9950 and then closing below that resistance level on Friday. Other resistance levels at 1.0000 and 1.0050 could be tested this week, provided there is a serious buying pressure in the market. There is also a strong possibility that the pair would plummet seriously before the end of this week, owing to a possible display of stamina in CHF. Most major currencies would drop against CHF this week (and USD possibly included). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The bias on the Cable is bullish, but the bias is very weak, owing to some bearish attempt to pull down the price last week. A movement below the accumulation territory at 1.3250 would result in a bearish signal being generated, while a movement above the distribution territory at 1.3550 would result in putting more emphasis on the recent bullish signal. One of these scenarios would materialize this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish From Monday to Wednesday, USDJPY went downwards; but it started moving upwards on that very Wednesday, to gain 150 pips, and to test the supply level at 113.50 by Friday (closing around that supply level). This has resulted in a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which means price would break the supply level at 113.50 to the upside, as it targets other supply levels at 114.00 and 114.50. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This trading instrument is quite choppy and completely neutral. There are wild upswings and downswings in the market as it is completely directionless. The current market condition would continue for some more days until price is able to stay above the supply zone at 134.50, or below the demand zone at 131.50. This is a condition that requires a high volatility and a perpetual movement in one direction. The condition would be met before the end of this month. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The outlook on this cross is bullish. From November 4 to 6, the cross went downwards, and then rallied. The rally has saved the ongoing bullish outlook on the market, despite the bearish correction that took place on November 8 (which might turn out to be an opportunity to buy long at a better price). This week, price would go upwards again, reaching the supply zones at 152.00, 152.50 and 153.00. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Sometimes I wonder what would have happened if I hadn’t learned how to trade. What future would have been blocked off?” – Louise Bedford Source: http://www.tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The bullish bias on EURUSD was challenged last week, as price was pulled towards the support line at 1.1800. However, bulls managed to push price upwards, thus saving the bullish bias. Price is currently close to the resistance line at 1.1900, and it is bent on breaching it to the upside as soon as possible. The resistance line at 1.2000 is the ultimate target; although bulls would meet a fierce opposition at the resistance line. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish From Monday to Wednesday, this pair went upwards in the context of a downtrend, testing the price level at 0.9850, going above it briefly and then coming downwards to move below it. USDCHF cannot have a meaningful rally as long as EURUSD is able to showcase its stamina. The rally that took place in the first few days of last week has proven to be a good opportunity to sell short at a better price, as price plummeted on Friday, putting more emphasis on the ongoing bearish outlook. Further bearish movement is expected this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish The persistent bullish effort on Cable - against all odds – has already paid off. The bullish upwards movement in the market has been slow, gradual, and steady. Since November 14, price has gained more than 400 pips, roughly testing the distribution territory at 1.3549. Although price has retraced lower since then, that is just a temporary thing, it would go upwards again, targeting the distribution territories at 1.3500, 1.3550 and 1.3600. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish After testing the supply level at 114.50, this trading instrument went downwards by 340 pips in November, creating a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. However, the rally that took placed almost throughout last week nearly posed a threat to the bearishness in the market. The reneging rally met a challenge on Friday and the market pulled back considerably. This week, price could possible reach the demand levels at 112.00 and 111.50. But that does not completely rule out the possibility of some rally. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross is quite choppy, showing some indecision in the long-term, and showing some bullishness in the short-term. The market went downwards on November 27 and 28, and then started going upwards on November 29 (after testing the demand zone at (132.00). The market reached the supply zone at 134.00 and then closed just below the supply zone at 133.50. It is thus possible for the supply zones at 133.50, 134.00 and 134.50 to be reached this week. As long as the demand zone at 131.50 is not breached to the downside, this short-term bullish bias cannot be rendered invalid. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish GBPJPY rallied massively last week, putting an end to the recent indecision that had held out for weeks. From the demand level at 147.00, price shot skywards by 540 pips, before the slight bearish retracement that was witnessed on December 1. This week, bulls would be able to push price further upwards. The targets are the supply zones at 151.50, 152.00 and 152.50 would easily be reached, enabling the ongoing bullish bias to become stronger. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Learning the business of trading is basically no different from learning any other business. Winning means learning major guidelines and concepts that you repeat so often in your own behavior that they become good habits. These good habits then become automatic behavior patterns, which are formed as brain pathways by the rewards you get for trading well...” – Joe Ross Source: http://www.tallinex.com

GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Gold is bearish in the short-term, and neutral in the long-term. In the long-term, price consolidated throughout November; but in the short term, the last week of November has been bearish. In the short-term, price has dropped seriously enough to generate a clean bearish bias on the market, and as price goes further southwards, a Bearish Confirmation Pattern would spread across the market. This month, upwards bounces should be temporary, as general movements in this month ought to be bearish. Thus, the current upwards bounce would end in further bearish movement, as price targets the support levels at 1260.00, 1250.00 and 1240.00 in December. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Silver is bearish, both in the short-term and in the long-term. The market essentially consolidated from November 1 to 28, and then dropped massively last week, shedding 8,000 pips from the high of the week (17.1895). There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which shows a possibility of the market journeying more and more towards the south. While there would be transitory indecisions and rallies along the way, price is expected to reach the demand levels at 16.2000, 16.0000 and 15.8000 in December. Source: http://www.tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair went upwards last week, after moving sideways on Monday and Tuesday. Price gained 210 pips, closing above the support line at 1.1900 and targeting the resistance line at 1.1950. Then another resistance level at 2.0000 (a psychological line) would be reached and possibly broken to the upside in December, as price goes further upwards. The outlook on EUR pairs is bullish for December USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish The market has come down by 220 pips in November 2017 – going downwards by 100 pips this week alone. There is a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which means price could continue going southwards, reaching the support levels at 0.9750, 0.9700 and 0.9650. These targets ought to be reached within the next several trading days, for there cannot be a meaningful rally in the market as long as EURUSD is strong. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish There is a bullish signal on GBPUSD, which has come about as a result of desperate effort by bulls, to price upward against bearish forces in the market. There is a possibility that price could reach the distribution territories at 1.3350, 1.3400 and 1.3450 this week (and in December). However, price would eventually fall seriously in December because the outlook on GBP pairs is strongly bearish for that month. Long trades may not make much sense on GBP pairs in December. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument has lost about 300 pips in November, after testing the supply level at 114.50 on November 6. The market may continue going downwards, reaching the demand levels at 111.00, 110.50 and 110.00 (providing that the selling pressure is great in the market). However, things would eventually turn bullish this week, for the outlook on JPY pairs is bullish for the week. There would be a bullish reversal that would end up generating a “buy” signal. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross is bullish in the short-term and neutral in the long-term. The cross went sideways on November 20 – 23. Since bullish movements are anticipated on JPY pairs this week, it is interesting that EURJPY has already started the journey. Price managed to close above the demand zone at 133.00 on Friday, and would gain another 200 pips before the end of the week. Once the supply level at 134.00 is breached to the upside, the bias on the market would also become bullish in the long-term. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Neutral GBPJPY is not an attractive market at the present. It has been consolidating for the past several weeks, and the consolidation would continue until there is a sustained breakout in the market. The most likely direction this week (and probably in December), would be northwards. The bias on the market would turn bullish once price goes above the supply zone at 150.00, which would not be an easy goal to achieve, since GBP would sometimes become weak in itself. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Think of patience as a primary part of your trading strategy. Don't assign it a secondary or lesser role, elevate it on the list of what you consider important. And don't be put off by it when it doesn't seem to be working — it's working.” – Andy Jordan Source: http://www.tallinex.com

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish A bullish signal was generated on this pair last week, as the market gained 200 pips, to test the resistance line at 1.1850. After that, price began to experience some bearish correction, which made it close below the resistance line at 1.1800 on Friday. The bullish signal in the market remains valid, and it cannot be invalidated unless the market goes down by 200 pips from here. This week, the resistance lines at 1.1800, 1.1850 and 1.1900 could be reached. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bearish This pair went downwards from Monday to Wednesday, jumped upwards on Thursday, and then went downwards again on Friday, closing at 0.9883 (on that very day). There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the support level at 0.9850 may be tested easily, breached to the downside, as price goes further downwards towards other support levels at 0.9800, and 0.9750 (the last target of the week). GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral The bias on Cable is essentially neutral, for price has not gone in a strong directional mode in the past 4 weeks. There is a distribution territory at 1.3300 and an accumulation territory at 1.3050 (as space of 250 pips). These distribution and accumulation territories have proven to be able to withstand bearish and bullish pressures in recent times; and as long as price remains within them, the ongoing neutrality would remain. Once either of the territory is breached, a directional bias would occur. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bearish USDJPY went sideways on November 13, and began to come down from November 14. Price went down by 160 pips last week, testing the demand level at 112.00 on November 17 (before the close of the market). This week, it is possible that price would go beneath the demand level at 112.00, and aim for another demand level at 111.50. Nonetheless, there would possibly be a strong bullish reversal before the end of the week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral The fact is, the EURJPY cross has been consolidating since the beginning of October (in the long-term). In the short-term, there are short-term bearish and bullish swings in the market, with no directional bias. For example, price went upwards last week, on Monday and Tuesday; but the bearish movement of Wednesday, Thursday and Friday has rendered the bullish movement of Monday and Tuesday invalid. The current neutrality would continue until price goes upwards by at least, 300 pips; or until it plummets by at least 300 pips. Any pip movement below that would not be sufficient to end the current neutrality. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish This is also a choppy and equilibrium market, for things have gone slightly bearish. The market would need to reach the demand zone at 146.50, for the bearish signal to become stronger in the market. On the other hand, a breach of the supply zone at 150.00 would swiftly bring an end to the bearish bias. A movement to the upside is more likely this week, since the outlook on some JPY pairs is bullish for the week. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Building a Forex trading strategy is much like building a house. You need layers and a good foundation.” – Jarratt Davis Source: http://www.tallinex.com

THE WAYS WE CON OURSELVES I support a particular hospital charity that each year or so runs a home lottery and every year I enter. To date I have won a digital camera, an iPod, an Apple TV, a tonne of chocolate, wine (brilliant for a non-drinker but good for presents) and a host of other goodies. In fact I have never had a time when I have entered and not won something. Whilst my expectancy is not quite positive it’s not bad. If I were a news agency that sold lottery tickets and I had this many winning entries bought via my store people would be clambering over me thinking there was something special about my store. One of the things we ignore in life is that we are subject to the same harsh statistics as everyone else – we have what I call the myth of individual specialness. Our basic narcissism leads us to believe that the laws that apply to the universe don’t really apply to us, as a result we spend a lot of time fooling ourselves into think there is something special or magical about what we do. My capacity to win this particular lottery has nothing to do with me other than the fact that I enter, I am simply subject to the laws of large numbers as is everyone else. If you get enough people doing the same thing over a long period time then the probable drifts into the realm of the inevitable. It is no wonder some people win the lottery twice. But because we are such poor natural statisticians this seems like magic to us and we ascribe some special quality to ourselves and this is apparently a well-known phenomenon in both lottery winners and those who have inherited wealth. They believe that something divine about themselves means that they were meant to win – they cannot accept that it was blind luck. My wife has a friend who received a very large inheritance from her parents, she has now divorced herself from all her friends of many decades because she believes that there is something superior about herself other than being the lucky product of the sperm sprint derby that we all undergo. Sometimes you land in the right spot and sometimes you don’t. The central issue here is that even in trading we are subject to the ruthlessness of statistics and this ruthlessness is often at odds with our own emotional endurance. For example if you have a system with a positive expectancy this means that on average and over time your system will make money. But note there are two presumptive phrases involved in this definition – on average and over time. You need to have the resilience to ride out the times when the system is not making money. When traders first encounter the notion of expectancy they assume that is means that every trade they take will make $X and are surprised when this does not happen. All trading systems will experience runs of losses, this is the natural order of things and you can experiment with this for yourself by looking at a coin toss simulator. If you click here you can see how streaks of either heads or tails form – this is a good example of what can happen in trading systems. Despite trading being a basic exercise in statistics at its core it is an exercise in resilience because we have to find ways of dealing with brutality of statistics and even when we know our system is sound it is still hard to take a continual series of losses. Inevitably we come back to the notion of courage as a central tenet in the success of any trader. Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of: Tradinggame.com.au This article is concluded with the 3 quotes below: “Every time you have a hunch that the market will reverse, jot it down on paper. After 30 attempts, look back at how accurate your prediction is. You may be surprised by your results.” – Rayner Teo “Defeats in trading are not really defeats, anyway — they are more like trial balloons we keep sending up, knowing in advance that a certain number of them are going to get shot down. Therefore, trading is really a process of two steps forward and one step back. The one step back part will always seem like a defeat, will always feel like a defeat, but is not a defeat – simply part of the process.” – Andy Jordan “A large population of traders consider themselves to be much more effective than they really are.”- Chris Tate

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market consolidated last week, and made some bullish effort on Thursday and Friday (in the context of a downtrend). There is a bullish signal in the short-term, and once the resistance line at 1.1750 is breached to the upside, the bias would turn bullish. The outlook on EUR pairs is bullish for this week, and thus, other resistance lines that would be reached are located around 1.1800 and 1.1850. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This pair is bullish in the long-term, but it is becoming bearish in the short-term. Basically, price moved sideways from Monday to Wednesday and then moved lower on Thursday. Further bearish movement is possible this week, and the targets are the support levels at 0.9950, 0.9900 and 0.9850. However, there would not be a very serious bearish movement this week because USD would retain some of its stamina this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Neutral GBPUSD is quite choppy and volatile, characterized by short-term upswings and downswings with no directional movement. This week or next, it is possible for price to either go above the distribution territory at 1.3300 (creating a strong bullish bias); or it would go below the accumulation territory at 1.3050 (creating a strong bearish bias). Strong directional movements are anticipated on other GBP pairs this week USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This pair is bullish in the long-term, but bearish in the short-term. As soon as price tested the supply level at 114.50, it went downwards by 100 pips (throughout last week), closing slightly below the supply level at 113.50. Should price move southwards this week, the demand levels at 113.00 and 112.50 would be reached. A northwards movement above the supply levels at 114.00, 114.50 and 115.00 would help strengthen the recent bullish bias. EURJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This is a neutral market. Price went downwards last week, testing the demand zone at 131.50, before bouncing upwards by 100 pips, to test the supply zone at 132.50. As long as price oscillates between the supply zone at 133.00 and the demand zone at 131.50, the neutrality in the market would be valid. Once the aforementioned supply zone or demand zone is breached, a directional bias would form. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Neutral This cross has been performing what can be called downswings and upswings for several weeks, with no perpetual trending movement. In October price reached a high of 151.38 and a low of 146.93. The current neutral phase in the market would not be over until the supply zone at 151.50 is breached to the upside; or until the demand zone at 146.50 is breached to the downside. Until then, strategies that take advantage of short-term swings in this market would thrive. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “No matter where you live or what your situation is, if you are willing to put the time and effort in, just about anyone can become a successful trader.” – TradingEducators

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market went sideways from Monday to Wednesday and moved further south on Friday (in the context of a downtrend). The bearish movement would continue this week, owing to a bearish outlook on EUR pairs for the week. Thus, price would test the support lines at 1.1600 (which has been nearly tested), 1.1550 and 1.1500. The resistance lines at 1.1700 and 1.1750 ought to do a good job limiting rally effort. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish Although this pair did not move seriously last week, it was able to maintain its bullishness. On Friday, price closed above the psychological level at 1.0000 - ready to go higher from there. The outlook on USD pairs is bullish (most USD pairs would move slightly or significantly upwards) this week, and this is what enable the pair to go further upwards; as well as the expected weakness in EURUSD. Thus the resistance levels at 1.0050, 1.0100 and 1.0150 would be tested this week and next week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This instrument went upward from Monday to Wednesday, gaining 160 pips and testing the distribution territory at 1.3300. Further bullish movement was rejected at that distribution territory, as price plummeted on Thursday, losing 250 pips and reaching the accumulation territory at 1.3050. The accumulation territory (though it has done a good job to prevent further fall), would give way as price aims for other accumulation territories at 1.3000 (a strong territory), 1.2950 and 1.2900. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish On October 30, USDJPY went downwards, but it rallied on October 31 and then consolidated for the rest of the week. There are demand levels at 113.00 and 112.50, which should try to impede a bearish bias from forming. The market could go upwards this week, reaching the supply levels at 114.50 and 115.00 (and even exceeding that). As long as USD is strong, a vivid pullback may not happen on the market. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish In the context of a downtrend, this cross rallied 160 pips, after testing the demand zone at 131.50. The rally has turned out to be a good opportunity to sell short at slightly higher prices, for price has started coming downwards from the high of last week (133.13), closing below the supply zone at 132.50 on November 3. As long as EUR is weak, this cross would be having difficulty going upwards. In fact, price may go southwards more than 150 pips this week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish Price is bearish in the short-term, and neutral in the long-term. Just like GBPUSD, it went upwards by 270 pips from Monday to Wednesday, topped at 151.92 on Thursday, and then dropped like stone (310 pips). There is now a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and given the bearish outlook on GBP pairs, GBP/JPY is more likely to drop further than to rally significantly this week. The next targets for bears are the demand zones at 149.00, 148.50 and 148.00. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “The elite trader develops a serious approach to the financial markets, weighing risk against potential reward at all times. They hone their craft through detailed recordkeeping, carefully chosen data sources, well-defined trading edges.” - Alan Farley

GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Gold is a choppy market, though movement has generally been bearish. Last month, price went upward to test the resistance level at 1305.78, before dropping thousands of pips. Any rallies that are seen on Gold would be in the context of a downtrend, and as such, would not invalidate the current bearishness in the market, unless the resistance level at 1300.00 is breached to the upside, which would require exceptionally strong buying pressure. This month, the support levels at 1260.00, 1240.00 and 1220.00 may be reached. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Since Gold and Silver are usually correlated, Silver moved upwards in the first half of October, gaining 9,000 pips. The market reached the high of the month at 17.4594 (October 15), and then began to move southwards, underlining the recent bearishness in the market. This month, any rallies should be taken as opportunities to seek short trades, because the current bearishness in the market cannot be ended until price is able to go above the high of October (17.4594). In November, at least a southwards movement of 6,000 pips is expected. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish There is a very strong Bullish Confirmation Pattern on Bitcoin. In October, price reached a low of 4143.64 and a high of 6460.62. Price gained more than 210,000 pips in October, and it started November on a strong bullish note. Another 100,000 pips have been gained this week, as price topped at 7438.49 on November 2, before retracing downwards. Nevertheless a large pullback of 50,000 – 100,000 pips is anticipated this month, after which price would assume its journey to the north. The main target for the month is the distribution territory at 7500.00, although there is a high probability that the main target would be exceeded.

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market consolidated from Monday to Wednesday and then dropped sharply on Thursday and Friday. There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which makes further drop a possibility. Since the outlook on EUR pairs remains bearish for this week (just as it was bearish for last week), the support lines at 1.1550, 1.1500 and 1.1450 are the next targets. However, the market would start rallying sometime in November, for the outlook on EUR pairs is bullish for November (especially starting from next week). USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USD/CHF gained 200 pips last week, moving briefly above the strong resistance level at 1.0000, but closed below it on October 27. The parity that was briefly achieved by USD and CHF would be achieved again this week, because the outlook on the pair is bullish for this week. USD is supposed to remain fairly strong, and thus, price would reach the resistance levels at 1.0000, 1.0050 and 1.0100 this week. But the bullish domination would not hold out very long in November, because it is expected that EURUSD would rally in that month, and this would cause a selling pressure on USDCHF. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This trading instrument is slightly bearish. It has been engaged in short-term upswings and downswings for about two weeks – a condition that is expected to continue until a strong volatility arises in the market. The volatility would propel price above the distribution territory at 1.3300 or below the accumulation territory at 1.3000. In November, there would be strong movements on GBP pairs, which would be bullish in most cases. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Although there was no strong northwards movement last week, this pair is bullish. Effort to stay above the supply level at 114.00 has been thwarted, but a lot of activity remains around that supply level. A closer look at the market reveals that bulls are still strongly determined to push the pair upwards, and that is what they will likely achieve this week, for the outlook on certain JPY pairs is bullish for this week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bearish EUR pairs became mostly bearish in the last few days of last week, and EURJPY was not spared either. The market initially made some bullish effort, but further bullish movement was rejected at the supply zone of 134.50 (which was tested several times, without being breached). From that supply zone, price plummeted below the supply zone at 132.00 (about 260 pips). The demand zones at 131.50 and 131.00 could be tested before price begins to rally this week. The rally would continue until a fresh opposition is met at the supply zone of 134.50. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross is bearish in the short-term, and bullish in the long-term. From October 23 to 25, some bullish attempt was made, but price came down in October 26 and 27. The outlook on the market is bullish for this week and for most of the month of November. Therefore, price would eventually rally, gaining at least 400 pips in November. There are demand zones at 148.50, and 148.00, which could be tried before price rallies eventually. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “One thing is true in trading: when things are going so well that it is hard to believe what is happening, don't change the disciplines and behavior that are working for you!” – Andy Jordan Source: http://www.tallinex.com

The question above is common whenever I come across people who used to be traders. They started trading because they thought it was easy and because they thought they’d strike it rich. Nevertheless, they discovered that trading isn’t easy and after they dashed their heads into the rock many times, they gave up. Whenever one of them comes across me, they ask: “Are you still trading?” It’s simple. If they can’t do trading successfully, they feel no one else can do it, or very few people can do it. They gave up and they expected me to give up. Surprisingly, I have not given up. In fact, I got what works for me and I like it. It’s a personal strategy: Manual + discretionary. The World Of Trading Is Full Of Hypocrisy I’m sick of those who talk about their profits alone, but who hide their losses. When NZD pairs moved maniacally on October 19, I saw how many people posted the profits they made. But none of them would ever post loses they made. Very few traders would post their losses. The world of trading is full of hypocrisy. When someone makes 300 USD or let’s say, 300 pips, they post it on forums, WhatsApps group, Facebook, etc. When the person makes a loss, they remain silent about it. That’s why some rookies would come and think trading is easy – just because everyone is talking about profits. FACT: Trading isn’t easy, though the marketer would want you to believe otherwise. Success is, nonetheless possible. Liberate Yourself With Trading Realities You will never find a perfect trading system or signals service. You can’t avoid losses. But you’ll be OK as long as your average losses are smaller than your average profits. I recently showed one of my trainees my trading results. I placed a trade, I lost it (-1%). I placed another trade, I lost it (-1%). I placed another trade and I lost it (-1%). I placed another trader and I lost it (-1%). 4 losses in a row (-4%). I placed the 5th trade and I won it (+6.9%). I let my profit run. You see, I made sure that I limited my losses and I let my profits run. I didn’t throw away my strategy because of a transient losing streak, since I know it’s a statistical edge. There are many bogus high probability strategies (manual, automated or semi-automated) that can win 99% of trades in a row. But one big loss would wipe away everything. Think about the rest. It’s up to you. I’d end this article with the quotes below. Please read what these highly experienced master traders have to say: “It is the fear which tends to be the biggest challenge….It is fear which stops us from taking a solid setup in the markets because we have been on a losing streak, only to see it work out well and the opportunity missed. It is fear which causes us to not follow the trading plan and make irrational changes because that other trade failed to work. It is fear which causes us to get out of a trade far too early with only a small profit because we are scared to hold on in case it became another loser, and it is fear which makes us search over and over again for the perfect strategy which does not exist, simply because we think there is always something out there we are missing out on or don’t know about. Fear, my friends, is the biggest hurdle any retail trader has to face and will hold you back more than anything else.” – Sam Evans (Source: Tradingacademy.com) “But you know what I learned? I learned that people don't want to change. People don't want to be told that they have to change. People resent being corrected. Do you know anyone like that? It's understandable, right? It's not easy to be corrected. Yet experience shows that life as a trader is a life of correction. So whereas you may know people that don't want to be corrected, the fact is, if you are going to trade successfully you are going to have to learn how to receive correction. It's really the hardest part, what I'm giving you right now. It's the hardest part. Everyone wants to think that they are lovable just the way they are, and maybe they are lovable just the way they are but that's not going to necessarily help the real deep things that hide in your soul that will destroy true success. We can't like ourselves too much. Do you understand what I am saying? You know what to do, now do it! That’s a correction, by the way.” - Joe Ross (Source: Tradingeducators.com) “In trading we talk about the need for a variety of emotional strengths. We talk about the need to be calm, confident, and disciplined but we very rarely talk about the need for courage and the majority of traders fail because they do not have the courage to succeed. It is often bloody hard to hang onto positions that have very large open profits. Your brain plays all sorts of tricks on you and you begin to rationalise the foolish action you are about the take. I am quite certain that Ronald Wayne who sold his original share in Apple for $800 (now worth about $75B) rationalises that decision. Rationalisation is a wonderful human skill – it insulates us from the harsh knowledge of our own failings and traders are experts both making foolish decisions and hiding from them.” – Chris Tate (Source: Tradinggame.com.au) Traders’ Mindset: http://www.advfnbooks.com/books/insights/index.html \

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral Price went down on Monday and Tuesday, went up on Wednesday and Thursday, and came down again on Friday. This kind of erratic, zigzag behavior has resulted in a neutral bias on the market. This week, a rise in momentum is expected, for price could rise above the resistance line at 1.1900; or price could fall below the support line at 1.1700. As long as price stays within the two boundaries, the outlook on the market would remain neutral. A movement to the downside is, however, more likely this week, owing to a strong bearish outlook on EUR pairs. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This pair has gained roughly 110 pips this month – making further bullish effort last week. Price has tested the resistance level at 0.9850, and it would test it again, breach it to the upside and then target another resistance level at 0.9900. This expectation would be easily realized as EURUSD slides further southwards (a likelihood), and as USD gains stamina. The support level at 0.9800 could be tested briefly despite bullish effort is being made. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The Cable dropped some 190 pips last week, testing the accumulation territory at 1.3100 before the shallow rally that was seen on October 20. The rally could turn out to be an opportunity to go short at a slightly higher price, for there is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. This week, the accumulation territories at 1.3150, 1.3100 and 1.3050 could be reached (especially as long as USD has some stamina in it). USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Early last week, USDJPY began to make some attempt to go northward, and the attempt was successful, for its price went upwards by 170 pips last week, reaching the supply level at 113.50. Further northwards movement is possible this week (a strong US dollar versus a weak Yen), and thus, the targets for bulls are located at the supply levels of 114.00 and 114.50. A very strong northwards movement could also cause another supply level at 115.00 to be tested. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish. This trading instrument consolidated in the first few days of last week, and then broke out northwards. The market went upwards by close to 200 pips, closing above the demand zone at 133.50 on Friday. This week, further upward movement is more likely than a downwards correct. A downward correction would be shallow and would get challenged by the demand zone at 133.00. Apart from this this, price is expected to reach the supply zones at 134.00, 134.50 and 135.00 before the end of the week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The biases on this volatile cross used to be neutral in the short-term and bullish in the long-term. Nonetheless, a bullish signal has been generated in the 4-hour chart, to corroborate the bullishness on higher time horizons. The outlook on the cross is bullish (as it is on certain other JPY pairs). The supply zones at 150.00, 150.50 and 151.00 could be reached this week. There are demand zones at 149.00 and 148.50: a formidable challenge to bears. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Following a detailed plan is important because it removes any underlying emotions from the decision-making process and thus enforces ongoing discipline in our trading activities. The less the trade becomes about us and the more it becomes about our rules and plan, the more we have steered ourselves towards achieving success in the markets on a consistent basis. The plan tells us what to do, as opposed to us looking at a chart and guessing what we should do.” – Sam Evans

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This pair went upwards last week, creating a short-term bullish signal, before price got corrected lower on Friday. This week, a movement above the resistance line at 1.1900 would reinforce the bullish bias (an unlikely event). On the other hand, a movement below the support lines at 1.1750 and 1.1700 would result in a bearish bias. The downwards movement is more likely because the outlook on EUR is bearish for this week. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF is precariously bullish. Price did not do much last week, save movement of about 50 pips to the downside. The situation of the market is currently dicey, but price movement would be largely determined by whatever happens to EURUSD. A weak EURUSD may cause the current bullish outlook on USDCHF to be sustained; otherwise a smooth southward journey would be witnessed this week. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish There is a “buy” signal on the Cable – with a Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Price gained over 210 pips last week, and there is much room for price to go upwards this week, reaching the distribution territories 1.3300, 1.3350 and 1.3400. The “buy” signal would not become invalid unless the accumulation territories at 1.3150 and 1.3100 are breached to the downside. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This instrument is bullish in the long-term, and bearish in the short-term. Price went downwards last week but not much (closing below the supply level at 112.00 on Friday). There would be a bearish signal when price goes downwards by 200 pips – and that may also bring about a bearish bias in the long-term as well. Should price go upwards from here, the extant bullish bias would be sustained. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish. The market went upwards in the last few days, testing the supply zone at 133.50. Then the market began to go downwards on Thursday, losing about 120 pips. The bias is bullish in the long-term, and would get strengthen as price goes northwards. There are demand zones at 132.00, 131.50 and 131.00 which would try to impede further bearish movement (for the bias would turn bearish when price goes below the demand zone at 131.00). GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish GBPJPY consolidated throughout last week, and the consolidation could go on this week until there is a rise in momentum. Price would either go above the supply zone at 150.00 (resulting in a bullish outlook); or price could go below the demand zone at 147.00, staying below it (which would put more emphasis on the bearishness of the market). As long as price stays below the aforementioned supply zone or above the demand zone, it would be deemed that the consolidation is ongoing, albeit in the context of an uptrend. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “And if your trading and investing goals aren’t written down (and reviewed regularly), then you have a much lower probability of achieving them.” – D. R. Barton, Jr.

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The pair has been going southward since September 25, having lost about 200 pips. Price moved briefly below the support line at 1.1700, but closed above it on Friday. However, rallies in this kind of market situation often bring good opportunities to sell short at slightly higher prices, and that is exactly what is expected. Another opportunity to go short would emerge this week, as price turns southwards again. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish USDCHF has managed to stay bullish for the past few weeks – although price has not gone upwards significantly either. The market was trudging upwards, sauntered above the resistance level at 0.9800, but eventually closed below it on October 6. This week, USDCHF would maintain its bullishness, but it would not be able to move northward significantly until CHF is weakened. The bullishness would also be sustained as long as EURUSD remains bearish. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish This market has been going downwards in the past two weeks, and price has come down by 470 pips since then (having come down by 320 pips last week). There is a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and the accumulation territory at 1.3050 has already been tested. The bearish movement can continue this week as other accumulation territories at 1.3000 (a strong accumulation area), 1.2950, and 1.2900 are tested. However, there could be some meaningful rally before the end of the week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Albeit it consolidated throughout last week; the outlook on this market remains bullish. There could soon be an end to the short-term consolidation, as price goes above the supply level at 114.00, or below the demand level at 111.00. A movement above the supply level at 114.00 would help strengthen the existing bullish bias; while a movement below the demand level at 111.00 would threaten it. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross is basically bullish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. Price did practically nothing last week, save moving sideways in the context of an uptrend. Nonetheless, a closer look at the market reveals that bears are about to gain upper hands, and thus, price could go towards the demand zones at 131.50 and 131.00 this week. The bias would not turn bearish until another demand zone at 130.00 is breached to the downside. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bearish GBPJPY moved south by about 360 pips last week, resulting in a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. The outlook on the market remains bearish for this week, as price goes towards other demand zones at 147.00, 146.50 and 146.00 (and possibly exceeding them). However, there could be a serious rally before the end of the week, which cannot render the current bearish bias invalid unless the market rallies by a minimum of 400 pips. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “As traders, we are the ultimate rain makers. We are the producers. We are the profit seekers. We live by our wits, making decisions that others fear. We claim our freedom and provide an unparalleled lifestyle for those we love.” – Louise Bedford

GOLD (XAUUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish Early in September, Gold went upwards to reach a high of 1357.14 on September 8. Since then, Gold has lost at least, 8,200 pips, creating a huge Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Rallies in recent times have been transitory, offering interesting opportunities to sell short at slightly higher prices. This month, price has resumed its bearish movement, making shallow rally attempts; but only to go further southwards. This kind of price action is expected to continue for most part of October, as price targets the support levels at 1270.00, 1260.00 and 1250.00. SILVER (XAGUSD) Dominant Bias: Bearish The movement on Silver is quite similar to the movement on Gold (for they are positively correlated). In September, price initially went northwards, reaching a high of 18.2034. Since then, price has lost more than 15,400 pips, and that is just the beginning, for the market has been bearish so far in the month of October. Like Gold, rally attempts have been faint and they have only led to more bearish movements. The bearish bias on the market remains valid and the current price behavior will most likely continue. The next targets for bears are the demand levels at 16.5000, 16.3000 and 16.1000. BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Dominant Bias: Bullish Bitcoin has been quite choppy and volatile. Price lost close to 190,000 pips, reaching a low of 2971.05. Since then, a bullish movement has begun, and price has gained more than 145,000 pips, thus restoring the recent bullish outlook on the market. This month has opened on a bullish note and further northward movement is anticipated. Thus the next targets are the distribution territories at 4500.00, 4700.00 and 4900.00, which would be reached within the next several weeks. There would be occasional dips along the way, and would only pave way for further upwards movements.

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Bearish The market lost about 200 pips last week, went briefly below the support line at 1.1750 and then went above it, to close above the support line at 1.1800. There is already a Bearish Confirmation Pattern in the market, and further downwards movement is possible as price targets the support lines at 1.1800, 1.1750 and 1.1700 this week. This means that the shallow rally that was seen on Thursday and Friday may turn out to be opportunities to go short at slightly higher prices. The outlook on EUR pairs is strongly bearish for October; so EUR would be seen falling against other major currencies. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish The bias on USDCHF is bullish in the short-term; and the bullishness is even precarious. This week, it may be possible for this pair to retain its bullishness as EURUSD slides southwards. However, the bullishness of the market would face a challenge from another quarter, which is the expected rally in CHF. CHF may begin to gain strength versus other currencies within the next two weeks, and that may make it difficult for USDCHF to experience a smooth bullish run. However, USD would also gain serious stamina around the end of October – a factor that may help USDCHF to become a clear winner at the end of the month. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bearish GBPUSD was bullish in September, but the bearish correction that was witnessed throughout last week (at least a movement of 150 pips to the south) has resulted in a “sell” signal in the market. The outlook on GBP pairs is bearish for this week, and thus, long trades are not recommended for now. GBPUSD could reach the accumulation territories at 1.3350, 1.3300 and 1.3250 within the next several trading days. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This trading instrument has gained at least 450 pips since September 11. The movement of the market would largely be determined by whatever happens to USD this month. A strong USD means price would continue going upwards, whether gradually or swiftly. On the other hand, a weak USD may cause a serious reversal on USDJPY as price goes downwards by at least 200 pips within the next few weeks. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross dropped southwards on Monday and Tuesday and then consolidated throughout the rest of the week. However, a closer look at the market reveals that bulls have subtly moved price in their favor, leading to an invalidation of recent bearish efforts. A movement above the supply zone at 134.00 would result in corroboration of the recent bullish bias; while a movement below the demand zone at 131.50 would result in a bearish bias. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish GBPJPY rose by 1,100 pips in September and got corrected on September 29, following the consolidation that took place in most part of last week. The correction was almost nothing when compared to the general bullish movement in that month. Price could continue to go upwards – but only in a limited way – owing to the expected weakness in GBP in October. This means that the market would go down by at least, 400 pips in October, thereby invalidating the current bullish bias. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Successful trading careers start with plans that specify objectives, which in turn lead to success. There are psychological benefits to establishing objectives and developing plans to reach them.” – Joe Ross

“If there were a cornerstone to trading it would be the ability not only to be resilient when in drawdown but also to accept that we get things wrong. Sometimes there is a flaw in our methodology that we have not seen and that we simply have been lucky up until this point. This does raise the question of when do you know you have entered this spiral of self destruction and to my way of thinking the answer is not that hard. If you have been losing money for the better part of a decade then it is fairly obvious that there is something seriously wrong in your methodology.” – Chris Tate Can you make 1,000% returns per year from trading? I DON’T THINK SO. Every so I often I am party to an email from someone who should know better. This particular email was around the topic of returns that could be expected from a novice trader. This email asserted that they were looking at the order of 1,000% pa, which in anyone’s language is a tall order. I can understand how people get these figures in their heads, the internet is awash with people claiming that you can give up your day job and intraday trade FX with $5,000 and live like royalty with no risk. Intriguingly I have once again started receiving spam emails from people claiming that options writing is a no risk cash flow generating strategy. As such it is easy to see how peoples psyche becomes infected with this sort of nonsense and how with little real world experience they are sucked in. However I was curious as to what the numbers would look like if you were making 1000% pa so I fired up Excel and let it rip with a starting balance of 1,000. Please check here to see the figure: http://tradinggame.com.au/i-dont-think-so/?utm_source=Blog+Subscribers&utm_campaign=782ff57c63-RSS_EMAIL_CAMPAIGN&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_eb90516269-782ff57c63-43344013 I don’t even know how to say that last number. Suffice to say that somewhere around the first months of year 7 you are the richest person in the world and by the end of year 10 I think you have all the money. Author: Chris Tate Article reproduced with kind permission of: Tradinggame.com.au Another great quote ends this article: “You should spend a great deal of time and thought on your exit strategies, for one very good reason: you don't make money when you enter the market, you make money when you exit the market. Far too many people focus only on market entry, or what to buy, rather than on when to sell. If you approach trading with an exit strategy, it will benefit you right away. Your system should reflect your beliefs (i.e., who you are as a trader and as a person). Many people are just looking for “any system that works,” but if your trading system doesn’t match your beliefs about the markets, you will eventually find a way to sabotage your trading.” – Van Tharp Institute

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral On September 18 and 19, this pair made a faint bullish attempt, only to come down on September 20 (and then went upwards on September 21 and 22). Since there is no conspicuous victory between bull and bear, the market remains in a neutral region. There is a need for price to go above the resistance line at 1.2050 (staying above it); or go below the support line at 1.1850 (staying below it). That is when there would be a directional bias. USDCHF Dominant bias: Bullish This pair has generated a bullish signal, owing to a visible bullish effort that was made last week. Price first consolidated in the first few days of the week, and then rose upwards. Further rise is possible this week, as the resistance levels at 0.9700, 0.9750 and 0.9800 are targeted. A drop below the support level at 0.9650 would force the market back into a neutral territory, while a drop below the support level at 0.9500 would end in a strong bearish bias. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish GBPUSD consolidated throughout last week – albeit in the context of an uptrend. Price has gained roughly 700 pips this month, and there are chances to gain more. The distribution territory at 1.3650 (which was tested last week) would be breached to the upside, as price goes for other distribution territories for the rest of September. The outlook on GBP pairs remain bullish for this week. USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This trading instrument went upwards by 150 pips last week, testing the supply level at 112.50 and then getting corrected a bit lower. There is a clean Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market, which signals further bullish movement this week. The supply levels at 112.50, 113.00 and 113.50 might be reached before the end of the month. The demand levels at 111.50 and 111.00 would impede bearish attacks along the way. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish This cross has become bullish in the long-term and in the short-term. Last week price went upwards by 190 pips, and then followed a shallow correction on Friday. Following the shallow correction would be a rise towards the north, as price slashes the supply zones at 134.00, 134.50 and 135.00 to the upside (possibly exceeding them). The outlook on JPY pairs is strongly bullish for this week. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The market gained about 1,100 pips this month, before the bearish correction that was witnessed on Friday. Further bearish correction could take place, but it should not be significant enough to result in a bearish bias (JPY pairs are mostly expected to go upwards this week). The bearish correction would end up giving opportunities to join the existing bullish trend, at better prices. A gain of 200 – 300 pips is anticipated before the end of September. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Trading goes best when it is yoked to rewards… that are independent of the most recent trading results.” - Brett Steenbarger, Ph.D.

Here’s the market outlook for the week: EURUSD Dominant bias: Neutral The market is bullish in the long-term and neutral in the short-term. There was a slight bearish movement last week, but that was not significant. This week, price would either go above the resistance line at 1.2050, to strengthen the long-term bullish outlook; or price go below the support line at 1.1850 (which was tested last week), staying below it, to bring about a short-term bearish bias. USDCHF Dominant bias: Neutral USDCHF is bearish in the long-term, but neutral in the short-term. From Monday to Wednesday, price went upwards by more than 200 pips, to test the resistance level at 0.9700. However, price began to come downwards on Thursday and Friday, thus rendering the short-term bullishness of the market vulnerable. To bring about a clean bullish bias, there is a need for the market to go upwards this week, staying above the resistance level at 0.9700; otherwise a strong bearish movement would result in a bearish bias. Movements between the resistance levels at 0.9700 and the support level at 0.9500 would enable the neutrality of the market to continue. GBPUSD Dominant bias: Bullish This trading instrument has become seriously bullish. Price has gone upwards by 680 pips this month, and there is much room for it to go upwards this week. The instrument has closed just below the distribution territory at 1.3600 on Friday. The distribution territories at 1.3600, 1.3650 and 1.3700 would be reached this week (even if there would be any reversals later). USDJPY Dominant bias: Bullish USDJPY is bullish in the short-term, but bearish in the long-term. The market went bearish in the first week of this month and went bullish last week, generating a bullish signal. There is a possibility that the supply levels at 111.00 (which was tested last week), and 111.50 would be reached. On the other hand, there is a stronger possibility that price would go bearish this week, so the demand levels at 110.00, 109.50 and 109.00 could be reached this week. EURJPY Dominant bias: Bullish The market rose from the demand zone at 130.00, and went upwards to test the supply zone at 133.00. This has resulted in a bullish bias, and further bullish movement could be seen as price makes more attempt to continue going northwards. However, the outlook on JPY pairs is bearish for this week, and EURJPY may also experience a vivid pullback before the end of the week, and that is something that could bring about a bearish bias on the market. GBPJPY Dominant bias: Bullish Last week, GBPJPY proved to be the strongest moving pair among JPY pairs. Price gained more than 820 pips, causing a huge Bullish Confirmation Pattern in the market. Further bullish movement could be seen this week, taking price towards another supply zones at 151.00 and 151.50. Then, there is a high probability of a large pullback before the end of this week, owing to a bearish expectation on JPY pairs. This forecast is concluded with the quote below: “Over the years, I've had the most profitable results by always making an attempt to receive pay for the risk I am taking. I want to be paid to trade.” – Joe Ross