Nvesta81

I could have told you that the markets were going to dip a little today off the open merely because they closed at a trin reading below .70... it's a high probability trade setup 'most of the time'.

Good observation. Worth noting that it occured at yesterday's VAH (value high), it was a perfect bounce off support. I played that trade and got a good 50 points before I took an exit.

Hey Abe, did you experiment with IB's bracket orders feature? It's pretty good for quick trades along with stop/target placement that you can configure in order defaults... http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/orders/bracket.php Sorry if this is nothing new to you.

Good reply. I should have probably put more thought in my post. I'm still very new to this game and I have so many questions.... I am just really impressed with this information you have forwarded to us and I really hope someday I can include it in a method of my own. So many ways to trade the market it's really overwealming at first, I admire you veteran traders who stuck with it for so long and became successful. Props!

Let me first say that I totally encourage this effort and think it's a great idea, however I also feel compelled to say that this won't really prove anything as how are we to know you aren't posting charts with trades in hindsight? Don't take this the wrong way as I'm not trying to be an ass, and again I think this is a great idea for a thread!

Thanks Ralph. The more time I spend in the CCI room the more I feel the same way as described in the article. I'm still wondering how they stay in this business trading for so long using just 1 indicator though if it doesn't really work, kind of makes ya wonder.. are they just rich and don't mind losing? lol. :p

When using Shapiro Effect trading with the skew, how often have you seen prices breakout against the skew and stop you out, and how much wiggle room should one allow the market to have before you bail? I know in previous threads you mentioned a %2 risk of your account balance, which makes sense. So let's say I enter at VWAP retest, put a 100 point stop, and prices go against me back to PVP, this would be a very scary thing... I also assume that when prices do go your way, you immediately place a break-even stop when you're up 10-20 ticks? I know this system is difficult to back-test so I'm just curious to know what kind of stats you have accumulated using this method... I'm wondering if a 100 point stop gives the market enough room to revert back in the direction of the skew if I were unfortunate enough to get caught in a break-out... but at that point you wonder if the trade was good to begin with, very hard on the nerves I imagine... at that point discretion comes into play would you say? Great threads, keep em coming!

Hey Abe you bought below the pivot because mine is at 13296, seems like you bought the breakdown. Check out http://www.tradesignals.com/pivots/, the site updates the daily pivots for major markets. Good luck trading, hope this helps.

I don't see anything wrong with watching CNBC for market news, but don't base your trading decisions on the news because as everyone else said, it's already prices in the market before the news ever reaches your office...

I tried Jerry's Method and got killed in the YM, most likely because my stops aren't wide enough, but so far it's going against the 'volume distribution' skew anyhow.. so I guess I would have got stopped out either way unless I placed a 100 point stop which I can't afford lol...

Abe are you trading real money? I tried today for the first time, ouch lol... - 84 ... back to the drawing board.

This link is recent and somewhat pertinent to the discussion. http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/09/markets/goldman_fund/index.htm?postversion=2007080915

This might be better served for a later thread, but I'm wondering if the previous day's PVP has any bearing on where things might go in the present day's open? For example, if yesterday's PVP is at 13000 and the market gaps up to say 13080, wouldn't the skew be to the upside from the start if you account for yesterday's volume distribution? Or is the present day data the only thing we should be concerned about to gauge the skew of the present day's market?

If you have trouble getting up in the morning to trade perhaps trading is not your true passion? I use to have trouble getting up in the morning for work because I hated my job but since I'm now a full time trader I eagerly anticipate every new day to wake up and trade. This business is hard even for those who love it --I definitely don't recommend you do it if you're not truly passionate about it... I guess the only advice I can give is it shouldn't be something you have to force upon yourself, it should be something you enjoy doing. If I'm totally wrong here, perhaps like the Doctor says, you may have other things in your life right now that you need to resolve to get that motivation you seek.

Does anyone here use Amibroker for their charts? The programming language seems very flexible, I just wish I knew how to program! If someone could convert these for that program I would be eternally grateful. Specifically the standard deviations for the VWAP. Thanks!

I'm not an expert on Volume Spread Analysis but has anyone else noticed the huge down volume appear at 12:09 PM EST, could this be evident of price rejection at these levels before the fed?

Seems like it, Peak Volume Price is snug on VWAP and the price is hovering slightly above and below the VWAP. I'm starting to sound like Jerry, but the guy is a genius so.

House Of Pain.

Hey Jerry, pardon my laziness to look back older threads but did you ever mention how you familiarized yourself with this method? Is it of your own creation, or did you learn it from somewhere? Any books or reading material available on the subject? I am very pleased that you are helping us with this invaluable knowledge, thank you so much!

Here was a nice possible VWAP trade today in the YM.

Great post, I definitely agree with all of it. The example I posted was merely to compare charts and see if my interpretation of the VWAP/PVP was accurate, and I am not trading this method 'yet'. I think having a grasp of the overall market trend and how things are moving before entering long/short trades is a good thing to have in mind as well, that is something I am trying to work on before I start trading. The TICKS/TRIN along with put/call ratios are good things to have in sight when making decisions on your setups is what I am learning from all the stuff I have been studying lately. What Jerry has brought to the table is very interesting nonetheless and I look forward to his future threads.

I'm thinking of switching to Ensign for my charts, any idea where I can find the VWAP and SD indicators? Thanks.

finally with patience a good move to the upside was there if your stops were wide enough... If it wasn't obvious enough the VWAP is the yellow moving average line, and the red line mixed into it is the 89 EMA, solid horizontal line is the PVP. Move was good for about +50 YM points if you had good nerves . edit - DAMN, after this 'trade', at that 13500 level, the YM dropped 100 points in less than half an hour...

Just an update. That trade would have been good for about +15 if you entered right at the VWAP, but if you held longer would have been stopped out depending on how tight you had it... Market seems pretty flat, whipsawing the VWAP and bouncing off the PVP since lunch hour.

Okay, this is my YM chart taken @ 12:29pm, as you can see the VWAP is +17 above my PVP, and I would have considered going long at 13444, it is currently 12:54 and prices are hovering around there, fell through a bit to 13430s. I am wondering if going long here would have been a good idea. (I did not, only simulating)