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Perhaps to explain a bit further, my insistence on seeing trades was simply to understand how sure you guys are about the trades you take. Somehow I developed the impression that almost all of your trades work, that you have analyzed every nuance of price movement and can ascertain with a high degree of accuracy the probability of your trade. But I'm seeing more and more that the idea is just to place a trade in a high probability area with the lowest risk, and just wait to see what happens. By having this detachment from the trade, it makes it much easier to scratch. But this is somewhat in conflict I think to having a high degree of confidence in the trade. So on one hand, you are placing a trade because you think it will really work (or else why even enter the trade), but on the other hand, you really have no idea and are prepared to scratch very quickly. I think that by seeing several scratches or re-entries, it would have gotten me into this frame of mind, but instead, I've kept trying to focus on finding the perfect trade as ND has identified so well, because I was under the assumption that you guys really knew something that I couldn't see. Do not make this into yet another therapy session. If you're not trading, watch. If you don't want to watch, move it all back to ET. Any further posts will be moved to "Off Topic Posts".

Thanks Db. Today is unfortunately a day where work prevented me from being here right at the open, and so I'm just following along now. I have been very much trying to follow your advice of now of simply figuring out if you want to be in the trade or not, simple as that. Hanging on too long, which is what has accumulated the losses, has now added to the fear, but every day gets so much easier where I see that I can just simply try, get out if its not doing what I expect, and save the mental/emotional energy for the next trade. I've also read Schafer up above mention a couple of trades where he kept a tight stop and simply took a short at the mean of the previous day range and I've found this quite helpful as its really starting to align with where my comfort level seems to be and where the best/most logical places are to look for a trade.

Sorry Niko, forgot to reply after I read this. Thanks for this info, and clearly, on its on, this is therefore not all that useful. Once I plot all the important levels going into each day though, I'm sure I will see plenty of opportunity, now that I'm focusing down on what I should be looking at and where I should be trading!

You're very welcome Niko. I feel as if I should be reading it over and over again every week... but I think the lessons are finally sinking in. Its no problem that you're taking your time. I have spent this time forward testing and taking wild trades, and hence my account is down almost $2,000, so taking time off would have been good for me as well and quite profitable! :haha: This has been good for me though. Its made me see that what I was doing isn't working, its given me experience with how my emotions play a major role in my decisions to enter and exit, and by using real money, it has really forced me to see with eyes wide open. I'm just about to finish putting something together as well... something solid this time. I think they say September has even more volatility than the summer months, so it will be great to be ready for this! (but I can't complain about all the opportunities that have been presented in the past few weeks) You did an excellent job of seeing that the environment that you started trading in during May was I think not representative of the environment that you were simming in during the winter and spring months. Since you have been back testing from 2010, have you seen a major change going into September and the fall?

Yup.. totally know what you mean, was just curious if you were doing something different than the things I pointed out. Thanks for the reply!

May I ask how you're defining a resistance level or where you consider extremes to be? I start now with the previous day high and low, and then the overnight high and low. Finally, I will look at the opening range, call it the first few minutes and see areas where price is unable to go above or below, but the first ones mentioned carry so much more weight as I'm seeing since I'm finally getting down to studying old charts.

I too am seeing this more and more every day. This is of course what is in the AMT file that Db provides, but over the past few months, I have somehow lost this critical part. So as you say, focus on trading here, give it a bit more room here, and its a winning strategy. Hi Niko... I'm eager to see you posting again!

I was a bit frustrated by this exact same setup here! If the line is steeper, the break happens along with the RET for the short, which is a great trade, but of course with the DL drawn as is, you just have to watch price go down without you. Yesterday was for sure tough!

Drats.. you got me there! No formal testing. I am assuming that when trading the SLA it should work just as good, but perhaps you only backtested it during the RTH? I fully understand though that this is something I should be testing myself, and I have already seen that price does make a definitive play in that most of the time it either fully rejects what has happened overnight and goes in the opposite direction, or continues with the current trend. This of course doesn't help much since its either/or, but I think there might be some characteristics that can be identified which might help to point in a direction. Sort of like how you say the first 15 minutes usually tells you what kind of day we will have.

Any reason not to get in sooner today... one minute before the open? I am happy to say that I followed the rules a bit better today and saw some gains, but right at the top, when the DL first breaks (I have mine drawn in just like yours), there is a little retracement that allows for entry at 3819. I don't recall seeing you write too much about getting in before the official NY opening times, so I'm wondering if there are any drawbacks to be aware of. Thanks. What are the results of your testing for this sort of entry?

The first short I am having trouble seeing (I have an SLA short marked at 3799), although the hinge right up there with an apex of 3800 really jumped out at me, but the second, the long, I clearly marked on my chart. I didn't take it because I didn't want to trade back into the overnight range, which in this case was a good move. I was waiting to clear the overnight range first, but getting into a short so early was the way to go!

I couldn't agree more, but it helps to see you write it. I appreciate your continued perseverance.

Excellent... thanks for the tip Db... I will be looking out for this.

Hi Seeker... yes, you're right, Db has provided plenty and its just a matter of testing to see what works. Its kind of exciting also to know that when I have something I put together myself, I will understand exactly how it works. I have already seen myself that each time I'm wanting to exit a trade, its much better for me to wait as at least 80% of the time, price either comes back closer to my entry point and hence allows me to exit at a smaller loss, or if exiting for a profit, there is a bit more profit to squeeze out, or, best of all, what would have been a loss turns into profit. The trouble really is taking the bigger hit once, perhaps a 4 point loss or 5 points, knowing that over the long run, this will actually add up to more points profit since waiting is statistically on my side. At any rate... this is just about the most rewarding en devour I can think of because the potential is really quite unlimited, unlike so many other financial pursuits that either go nowhere or have a built-in ceiling that cannot be crossed.

With regards to retracements, I had always thought this, and suspected that it was proper to get in sooner, even if the retracement wasn't obvious on a static chart, and that if you see it form in real time this was good enough, so thank-you for the confirmation. My only explanation for all your other points you make is simply that I wanted to see what would happen. I wanted to see how I would react, what stupid things I could do, how I would be affected by being in a trade. Reading about how Niko was getting chopped up a few times by trading in chop that was a bit of over-trading, I could see that this in fact wasn't my problem. If anything, I was/am under-trading in that I wasn't taking legitimate trades, and the few times I did get in inappropriately was based on fear of missing out, and getting in much too late at that point. As you say, the market has no interest in my trade, and its interesting to see how much this changes my perception when I am in a trade. Seeing this is what made me want to search for better entries, getting a better price, giving up a bit of confirmation. I do absolutely see with my own eyes now how there is no need to panic, and that better exits present themselves as I've said earlier. This is something that for me was difficult to see without actually being in a trade because I didn't think I would be so desperate to get out so quick had I not been in a trade. So in a way, I think I needed to throw myself in to see what my problems would be, to see how I would react to the market and the tug of war that would ensue between my brain and my emotions. Its been a struggle between knowing that trading SLA should be easy if you follow rules, and I know the rules, so why not just go forward live with SLA, and at the same time wanting to make sure I'm not cutting corners as you say. I absolutely appreciate your insight of course. I have a history of doing things the wrong way initially I think, just to see how they turn out, to feel the pain a bit, to make sure I'm not going to have beginners luck and assume this is easy and subsequently fight it all the way to the bottom. In a way, knowing this is hard, its almost as if I'm trying to make it hard so that I don't learn right from the start that this is easy. Your wise words are sinking in, I keep reading them over and over again, and one day my internal fight with myself will come to an end and I will just start seeing what is and accept it and work based off that. I do think I'm actually getting somewhere and the coming days and weeks will be proof of this one way or another.

It I'm sure mostly comes back to the lack of a trading plan. In terms of "not trusting any moves", I know enough now that it doesn't matter what I think about a move as what I'm essentially wanting is to predict the future which is impossible. There may be nuances to keep one out of a certain set-up given the context, but I can save all that for later. At the moment, there is simply no reason for not taking an SLA trade when it presents itself. The reason I'm hunting down trades that are sooner than SLA would allow is two fold. The RET is there sometimes, contained within the bar so to speak, and if each minute was actually cut off at 55 seconds lets say, then the bars would be packaged differently and the RET would officially be shown in the minute bars (ie. for a long, in the last few seconds before the bar closes, price might spike up, thereby making that bar not close one tick below the previous bar to show the RET in the one minute bar interval chart). So in essence, the RET is there is what I'm thinking, and hence its somewhat sooner than a straight SLA trade if what would have been my trigger bar ends up closing higher than the previous bar. The second reason is fear of price moving against me if I have a fixed stop loss of lets say 2 points. So if the SLA entry is many points away from where the change in trend seems to be, price can still retrace some more, more than 2 points away from the entry, perhaps even testing the price at which the trend change began, and yet still not invalidate the trade. So then I'm left with either breaking a firm stop loss rule, which mostly comes from fear anyway, or playing the hoping game. After a hand full of trades now, I have seen that on almost every trade, my exists, be they for profit taking or taking the loss, are usually at the worst possible place, meaning that a better exit almost always presents itself for either a smaller loss, or greater profit, or even what was going to be a loss turns around into profit. So giving price a bit of room is essential. (I have been planing for a while now to do an analysis when I get to 50 trades lets say to track the outcome, my win/loss, and more importantly, was the win taken too soon, and could the loss have been less if I held on just a bit longer.) So the lack of a trading plan creeps in with not having defined how steep I would draw my lines, when I would fan them, what constitutes a line break... etc. In essence, its not so much that I can't follow rules, its that I see that in the moment, I don't actually have a rule that specifically tells me what to. If you're going to change the oil in your car, its fairly straight forward in that you get a bucket, unscrew the bolt, let the oil flow out, and change the filter. But when in the middle of it, right under the car, when I loosen the bolt and oil starts coming out, I haven't planned what to do with the bolt for example... do I still leave it in... do I let it fall into the bucket... do I take it out and wipe it off.... etc. Anyway, as you say, the answer to my problems really is in the questions. If I knew exactly what to do in the moment, I would do it, but because I haven't planned this with precision, it tends to fall apart right in the moment. As you have said many times in other threads though, by solving these problems myself, I will trust them wholeheartedly, and by being the person who makes the plan, it should be easy to do what I have myself outlined sine the trust will be there, once I have something solid. Trading is nice in a way because I don't need someone else to tell me that I've done a good job (even though sometimes I think I am looking for a bit of reassurance), because the proof will be right in the chart, and it will be fairly easy to see if the way I'm reading price action is in fact correct after a statistically sufficient number of trades or not.

No worries, thanks for the reply. SLA is almost as mechanical as you can get... except of course if you think there is value in plotting moving averages and waiting for a crossover.. (of course I know your answer to that though!)

Hey Boru.. yes... I definitely watch rejections/failures now. I was actually just curuious how he would draw them in today given that he had an exact number of 27 for the point totals. and also since the top half of the chart was quite choppy. I know that when Db draws charts, there is lots to glean from the nuances of why he draws the lines the way he does. (ie. what he skips and what he adds in)

If you can entertain a question Db, I would appreciate it. You mention in Niko's journal that today was a 27 point day by 1300. It of course was an excellent trending day on the way up and down, all of which I mostly missed, but I'm curious about how you would mark up a chart with simply SLA trades. I am attaching mine, not that this is how it should look, but if following each bar as it forms, unfortunately the SLs and DLs might very well look like this. (Although I know this is inappropriate, in real time as the bars are forming, you just never know where your swing highs or lows will be to connect with the previous swing highs and lows). As you can see on my chart, it appears as if the first trade to trigger is the short at A. When price breaks the SL, you can draw one of two DLs. The less steep one doesn't follow price at all since it shoots up, so you'd almost have to use the tighter one, which gets broken not too long after your entry which unfortunately isn't till much higher up (The retracement took a while to present itself). Is there a different way of reading the opening to not put you in the short and have to wait so long for the RET to go long? That very first bar at the open, the longest one that opens and closes on the high is certainly what I would call a rejection bar, traders are showing they don't want price so low since it was bought back up. More telling is the higher low that forms 3 bars later, but by this point you are already in your short, having just entered as you hit the low and price turns around. Anyway, as you can see, my lines are a terrible example of implementing SLA, and there are tons of scratches. So if it wouldn't be too much trouble, could you post a chart outlining the SLA trades? It seems so easy at the end of the day, and I feel as if I would do an excellent job of annotating today's chart with the trades, but the swing points I would use to connect to form the SLs and DLs would all be in hindsight since I know they are there. At the top, where we turn around and come back down, it appears as if the first short isn't till "F", at roughly 3777, but price ends up going up to just under 3780 before it comes back down again so I would be stopped out, which since the tight SL broke I would be out way before then. Now we can clearly see this area is a bit of chop now, and it doesn't clear up again till we get to 72, but by this point I would more than likely be worn down and not trusting any move, fearful it will just chop up some more. Lately I have been following the opening range quite closely, looking more at rejections of going high or low, especially if this is happening at levels that I think are important. But I'm not much further along, and as you say, using a simple method such as SLA should be something that I can do without too much thought before I start getting to creative. I am hunting down ways to enter trades even sooner than SLA would allow, and then use SLA as a means of staying in the trade, but even that isn't working out too well as I get out far too quick. Anyway, so in a long winded way, I wonder if you could outline the SLA trades, how you would draw your lines as they are forming from left to right or comment on my terrible attached chart! Thanks. EDIT: Of course I should add that after 2 scratches, you're supposed to wait for price to go to some other level, so hammering away at these shorts and longs is inappropriate, I just wanted to illustrate them as possible entries for the way the lines are drawn the way I would in real time.

Thanks for the reply... I should make SLA work first before even thinking about other things, and once I make it work, I am sure I will see no reason to do anything else. Thinking about scalping is I'm sure just a result of fear and greed.

It is absolutely true that this hasn't led to any increase in performance, and my main goal is making money. On that note, I have to go do my prep. If I may ask, because Niko and I have talked about this, on a day when price isn't trending too well, is there a strategy you would suggest for scalping? Of course in the long run, fighting for ticks isn't what is going to bring in the most money, but is there a strategy you suggest if one was inclined to scalp in a slow environment? I see you posted a very helpful chart in the ghost thread for today, so I will start with this in my prep.

Its just about trading. Sometimes we even highlight one of your posts in case the other missed it. Perhaps we also share a feeling or two about missing a trade, or we do a bit of CSW just for fun, but we try and make sure to keep each other on track and stick to the rules. He sometimes shares a chart with me with possible channels drawn in, so in a way we are just mostly bouncing ideas off of each other.

When I wrote it, I thought of two areas perhaps. One was to do with the prep, although I suspect that we could just read what eachother posts to their journal. The second was perhaps a further discussion about the previous day. For example, if he doesn't get around to posting what he was thinking during the time, I was curious how he was interpreting the information. (like what he was thinking at 35 this morning) I suspect that his experience won't be of any benefit to myself and vice versa, and perhaps, it would be bad if some of our bad habits rubbed off onto each other. But perhaps talking about some of the trades might shine a light onto something. A specific example was that I didn't know that we can treat two bars with the exact same bar heights as a RET to go long for example. I always thought that the second bar needs to be at least one tick lower to classify as a legitimate RET on the one minute chart (although in a 15 second chart the RET would more than likely be there). That is how I meant it mostly, to share something that the other person may have missed. But if what you are leaning towards is not influencing each other in a way that would be detrimental by putting ideas into our heads that we never would have had in there otherwise, then I understand how a prep discussion would be bad.

Thank-you so much for the feedback Db. Niko, I am sure you won't disagree, so my proposal is that we can catch up in the morning to have a discussion if anything comes up, and a few minutes before the open we can disconnect. We can always log back in after 11 for a briefing if our schedules permit and the trading is in fact finished.

We mostly stay quiet for the beginning, but then when not much is going on we will talk. But yes, right around the time price hit 35 this morning we were talking. I absolutely see how trading isn't a team sport though, and since its an individual enterprise, the talking might very well be hindering each of us.