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Perhaps to explain a bit further, my insistence on seeing trades was simply to understand how sure you guys are about the trades you take. Somehow I developed the impression that almost all of your trades work, that you have analyzed every nuance of price movement and can ascertain with a high degree of accuracy the probability of your trade. But I'm seeing more and more that the idea is just to place a trade in a high probability area with the lowest risk, and just wait to see what happens. By having this detachment from the trade, it makes it much easier to scratch. But this is somewhat in conflict I think to having a high degree of confidence in the trade. So on one hand, you are placing a trade because you think it will really work (or else why even enter the trade), but on the other hand, you really have no idea and are prepared to scratch very quickly. I think that by seeing several scratches or re-entries, it would have gotten me into this frame of mind, but instead, I've kept trying to focus on finding the perfect trade as ND has identified so well, because I was under the assumption that you guys really knew something that I couldn't see. Do not make this into yet another therapy session. If you're not trading, watch. If you don't want to watch, move it all back to ET. Any further posts will be moved to "Off Topic Posts".

Thanks Db. Today is unfortunately a day where work prevented me from being here right at the open, and so I'm just following along now. I have been very much trying to follow your advice of now of simply figuring out if you want to be in the trade or not, simple as that. Hanging on too long, which is what has accumulated the losses, has now added to the fear, but every day gets so much easier where I see that I can just simply try, get out if its not doing what I expect, and save the mental/emotional energy for the next trade. I've also read Schafer up above mention a couple of trades where he kept a tight stop and simply took a short at the mean of the previous day range and I've found this quite helpful as its really starting to align with where my comfort level seems to be and where the best/most logical places are to look for a trade.

Sorry Niko, forgot to reply after I read this. Thanks for this info, and clearly, on its on, this is therefore not all that useful. Once I plot all the important levels going into each day though, I'm sure I will see plenty of opportunity, now that I'm focusing down on what I should be looking at and where I should be trading!

You're very welcome Niko. I feel as if I should be reading it over and over again every week... but I think the lessons are finally sinking in. Its no problem that you're taking your time. I have spent this time forward testing and taking wild trades, and hence my account is down almost $2,000, so taking time off would have been good for me as well and quite profitable! :haha: This has been good for me though. Its made me see that what I was doing isn't working, its given me experience with how my emotions play a major role in my decisions to enter and exit, and by using real money, it has really forced me to see with eyes wide open. I'm just about to finish putting something together as well... something solid this time. I think they say September has even more volatility than the summer months, so it will be great to be ready for this! (but I can't complain about all the opportunities that have been presented in the past few weeks) You did an excellent job of seeing that the environment that you started trading in during May was I think not representative of the environment that you were simming in during the winter and spring months. Since you have been back testing from 2010, have you seen a major change going into September and the fall?

Yup.. totally know what you mean, was just curious if you were doing something different than the things I pointed out. Thanks for the reply!

May I ask how you're defining a resistance level or where you consider extremes to be? I start now with the previous day high and low, and then the overnight high and low. Finally, I will look at the opening range, call it the first few minutes and see areas where price is unable to go above or below, but the first ones mentioned carry so much more weight as I'm seeing since I'm finally getting down to studying old charts.

I too am seeing this more and more every day. This is of course what is in the AMT file that Db provides, but over the past few months, I have somehow lost this critical part. So as you say, focus on trading here, give it a bit more room here, and its a winning strategy. Hi Niko... I'm eager to see you posting again!

I was a bit frustrated by this exact same setup here! If the line is steeper, the break happens along with the RET for the short, which is a great trade, but of course with the DL drawn as is, you just have to watch price go down without you. Yesterday was for sure tough!

Drats.. you got me there! No formal testing. I am assuming that when trading the SLA it should work just as good, but perhaps you only backtested it during the RTH? I fully understand though that this is something I should be testing myself, and I have already seen that price does make a definitive play in that most of the time it either fully rejects what has happened overnight and goes in the opposite direction, or continues with the current trend. This of course doesn't help much since its either/or, but I think there might be some characteristics that can be identified which might help to point in a direction. Sort of like how you say the first 15 minutes usually tells you what kind of day we will have.

Any reason not to get in sooner today... one minute before the open? I am happy to say that I followed the rules a bit better today and saw some gains, but right at the top, when the DL first breaks (I have mine drawn in just like yours), there is a little retracement that allows for entry at 3819. I don't recall seeing you write too much about getting in before the official NY opening times, so I'm wondering if there are any drawbacks to be aware of. Thanks. What are the results of your testing for this sort of entry?

The first short I am having trouble seeing (I have an SLA short marked at 3799), although the hinge right up there with an apex of 3800 really jumped out at me, but the second, the long, I clearly marked on my chart. I didn't take it because I didn't want to trade back into the overnight range, which in this case was a good move. I was waiting to clear the overnight range first, but getting into a short so early was the way to go!

I couldn't agree more, but it helps to see you write it. I appreciate your continued perseverance.

Excellent... thanks for the tip Db... I will be looking out for this.

Hi Seeker... yes, you're right, Db has provided plenty and its just a matter of testing to see what works. Its kind of exciting also to know that when I have something I put together myself, I will understand exactly how it works. I have already seen myself that each time I'm wanting to exit a trade, its much better for me to wait as at least 80% of the time, price either comes back closer to my entry point and hence allows me to exit at a smaller loss, or if exiting for a profit, there is a bit more profit to squeeze out, or, best of all, what would have been a loss turns into profit. The trouble really is taking the bigger hit once, perhaps a 4 point loss or 5 points, knowing that over the long run, this will actually add up to more points profit since waiting is statistically on my side. At any rate... this is just about the most rewarding en devour I can think of because the potential is really quite unlimited, unlike so many other financial pursuits that either go nowhere or have a built-in ceiling that cannot be crossed.

With regards to retracements, I had always thought this, and suspected that it was proper to get in sooner, even if the retracement wasn't obvious on a static chart, and that if you see it form in real time this was good enough, so thank-you for the confirmation. My only explanation for all your other points you make is simply that I wanted to see what would happen. I wanted to see how I would react, what stupid things I could do, how I would be affected by being in a trade. Reading about how Niko was getting chopped up a few times by trading in chop that was a bit of over-trading, I could see that this in fact wasn't my problem. If anything, I was/am under-trading in that I wasn't taking legitimate trades, and the few times I did get in inappropriately was based on fear of missing out, and getting in much too late at that point. As you say, the market has no interest in my trade, and its interesting to see how much this changes my perception when I am in a trade. Seeing this is what made me want to search for better entries, getting a better price, giving up a bit of confirmation. I do absolutely see with my own eyes now how there is no need to panic, and that better exits present themselves as I've said earlier. This is something that for me was difficult to see without actually being in a trade because I didn't think I would be so desperate to get out so quick had I not been in a trade. So in a way, I think I needed to throw myself in to see what my problems would be, to see how I would react to the market and the tug of war that would ensue between my brain and my emotions. Its been a struggle between knowing that trading SLA should be easy if you follow rules, and I know the rules, so why not just go forward live with SLA, and at the same time wanting to make sure I'm not cutting corners as you say. I absolutely appreciate your insight of course. I have a history of doing things the wrong way initially I think, just to see how they turn out, to feel the pain a bit, to make sure I'm not going to have beginners luck and assume this is easy and subsequently fight it all the way to the bottom. In a way, knowing this is hard, its almost as if I'm trying to make it hard so that I don't learn right from the start that this is easy. Your wise words are sinking in, I keep reading them over and over again, and one day my internal fight with myself will come to an end and I will just start seeing what is and accept it and work based off that. I do think I'm actually getting somewhere and the coming days and weeks will be proof of this one way or another.