ammo

there are plenty of indexes that rarely trade that move in step with their underlying commodity,gold options , dow transportt options, to name a few

from a trend line stance this mrket has broken a 5 year channel that started in 03,i can't transprt a chart but you can do a little homework and you will see it,we are in a bear mrkt and will possibly make it to halfway of last selloff from 1440 to 1330,110 divided by 2 is 55,1330 plus 55 is 1385,if you look at a ytd chart of es spx using a letter for each week, there is a nip near there,my hand charts are done in 10 point boxes so i can't pinpoint that value area but it's 1385 ish,more recently, if you ignore 6/5 and 6/6,an up trending day and a down trending day ,wed 6/4 has a nip at 79,thats jun, so sep nip resistance would be 1381, that's my guess as res for the upside if we take out the monday high

i have'nt found the 70% value area useful so i don't use it,know where the nips ,cleavage and trendlines are on normal daily graphs and the mrkt will respect one or the other 80% of the time, if you trade with stops, i know no one likes them but u have to when the dow has 300 point moves in a day,you will be protected when you are wrong,no one likes to admit it but to normally progress we have to be wrong, you've been doing it since birth so don't feel stupid when your wrong, just stupid when u don't use stops or trailing stops on your profits

north boy,heres all you need to know,the normal pattern makes a shape like a pennant or boob,the nipple on th boob is the value area,some days it will make 2 boobs and leave a cleavage area,if that doesn't turn into a trend day and starts to retrace it will go to the 1st nipple on the closest boob, it it gets above there, 80% of the time it will fill the cleavage,if its doing this at the end of the day it may go back and touch the 2nd nipple,those nipples and that cleavage are what you need to make primary in your study. If it makes a boob with a long bottom tail thats a p pattern ,thats usually bullish,the boob on the bottom with long tail above is bearish b pattern for the next day. On a normal day you go with the mrkt as it moves away from the nipple,as the market retraces as the S&P is now it stops at the next nipple ,fri stopped on the nipple from tue at the high and the nipple on wed is where it stopped around 11:30 on the intraday low before reversing ,fridays chart at that time had cleavage at 1354 and thats where it went from 46,that was a 2 boob day and the upper nip was at 57,it went there, the top of that day had a ledge at 59,they usually are not there in the final drawing of the day so it told you that as it moved above the top nipple u got long and you were gonna cover when it hit tuesdays nip at 63-64 the best way to learn this is by hand charting and don't bother taking a class, you will learn it the same way the originator,pete steidlmeir, did. Buy a graph paper notebook at office depot and chart it in points,you will soon see things very clearly

the market is like a staircase,you can go up or down or both,the trendlines,market profile value areas,gann lines,previous hi or lo,low/high of day/there are a dozen more,if you learn how to use any 2 of em ,you have a good idea where the height or depth of the next stair tread will be,that is the easy part, the hard part is pulling the trigger,setting and taking a stop,getiing out near the next step or too early,watching it go halfway to the step and coming back and turning a profit into a scratch or loss,this discussion on prediction and who can be the closest has very little to do with trading or making money,professional traders have no clue where the mrkt is going they just react l

i'm self taught in mp,the days picture is a boob, the widest point is a nipple,these nipples when we descend after say a 2 month rise are supports or targets on the way down. Intraday when we make a second boob the cleavage in the middle is a magnet and usually the mrkt will return and fill that area,yesterday there was cleavage at 1362-64 in the es and it went back and fillled in the last half hour. If you take the ytd weekly bar chart and use it to make a very large mp chart,1 week equaling 1 letter, you will see a large gap between 1385 and 1335,85 and 35 both being nips,we will reach 1335 this week as we are backfilling the past,i don't use the 70% value area,see no use for it

you will in the end have a robot managing your money,to me thats a scary thought,just learn to trade,as boring as it can be ,i would think programming is worse

the reason there are no strategies is because tl is so simple, sell at res and buy at support. Now if you use monthly,then daily, then 4hr,then 2 hr ,then 30 min ,then 15 min,then 5min, and 1 min and chart all those lines you will channel the intrady chop,its still sell res and buy support

wave, he does explain his methods,which are understood i suppose ,if you know gann

wave i don't have a clue about ew and gann, i'm a trendline and mp guy,i,ve got a tl at 1365, another at 1336,if u make one big mp chart using a letter for each week,ytd,theres an area btween 1385 and 1335 that we neeed to fill,1335 being the next magnet,do mrkt cycles denote sentiment changes?

i dont do elliot wave, it's over my head ,i use ptv-investing,have been watching him for over 2 years now and hes been accurate on calling mrkts,too good to ignore

there is a 90 day cycle that the elliott wavers use which comes up around june 9-11,this coming 2 day rally should end there which is m,t,w, and then we should get a big reversal or upswing,my bet is reversal,if you watch the recent saturday edition of wealthtrack.com, they have gsax head risk manager on there and what he doesn't say is a huge tell

there is a 90 day cycle that the elliott wavers use which comes up around june 9-11,this coming 2 day rally should end there which is m,t,w, and then we should get a big reversal or upswing,my bet is reversal,if you watch the recent saturday edition of wealthtrack.com, they have gsax head risk manager on there and what he doesn't say is a huge tell

that is called infomation overload,he says up ,she says down, u r right,just read the charts,i dont trade from 11-1 bcuz it always gets me except on trend days

i stopped using mrkt profil in 91 when i left the floor,the es daily range then was 3 points, s&ps around 245-250,i, recentley returned and found it much harder to use,one thing that still works is the wide spot,i used to call it the nipple, on major selloffs where you have a chart of the previous daily nips in front of u,the market uses those as magnets or temp support,say thurs day nip was 1320, fri nip 1346,monday nip 1364,tue1380, then wed opens at 1400 and begins to sell off,it'll stop at 1380 and bounce , not big if it's a trend day',if it keeps falling it,ll stop next at 1364. then tommorrow if dtrend continues it,ll stop at 1320 and so on. If there was a double distributionday or 2 nips then the cleavage btween the 2 also acts like a nip. i still hand chart it in one point increments just so i know where those nips are, .there is a trend day i would guess 3 times a month and it is very useful,those are my most profitable days ,i trade with a lot of confidence bcuz of those nips

he probably heard it from dillon rattigan on cnbc who said in july on that 270 up day in the dow that there was a record 30 or 40 billion short and they got squeezed, more bull

i use mp on trending days,it shows where the pauses or temporary congestion will be ,the pov i call the nipple is always a pause area good for day trading,wait til it gets there to scale out

if your selling options as a naked position there is a lot of premium in them when volatility is high,and if you sold both calls and puts for a spread that will shrink with time ,and if you are always on top of the market so you can constantly adjust your position,they can be extremely profitable,if he's losing on a regular basis then he's probably trading more size than his knowledge of the markets can steer,like a bus versus a bicycle, you could advise him to sell calls against his puts when hes wrong or vice versa,and to trade smaller when he's cold ,sometimes you just don't see clearly and it's best not to trade when you are having those types of days

if you successfully keep taking small profits and your acct grows,so will your confidence which will come from your increased knowledge,as it increases so will your ability to read the market,be patient and be glad you are profitable,the rest will come...good luck