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ammo
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Everything posted by ammo
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Trading with Market Statistics VII. Breakout Trades at the PVP
ammo replied to jperl's topic in Market Profile
couldnt see the timeframe on your chart but hns can have 2 heads -
Trading with Market Statistics VII. Breakout Trades at the PVP
ammo replied to jperl's topic in Market Profile
it looks like a large hns,see if it sets up and plays out ,if not trade the mp on the left...i added an image,1st time, and it didnt come thru,sorry -
count the number of times you said i or me or myself, your ego is still leading, wall street expects that,they fool you into entering and then your ego keeps you from exiting with a loss and you ride it giving them more dough..lose the ego..you are an ant at a picnic, a barnacle on a ship,the amount of outside info you have and the amount of inside info they have is akin to a picnic feast and you get a crust of bread...it's the distance between here and the moon from personal..take the person,you ,out of the trade,out of the trading business,become a living breathing cold unemotional calculator,the most frugal banker or accountant you've ever met..and trade what you see, from your posts,it seems you only see yourself...don't take this as an insult,it's not personal,it's just what it will take to trade if that's what you want to do
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it's called learning by osmossis,it's an unmeasurable added benefit to years of study
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all your posts are about,you,your meds,your dr...and distraction,very little percentage wise about trading,all the trading takes place in your head,your ego has firm control of that,you need to take control and quiet the 2 year old(ego,me,me,me) before you do any more trading,if you trade, the acct will get killed while the ego hangs on to being right,it;s a very expensive lesson and a tough battle,you are better off fighting it in simulation..all traders have to give up the ego,those who can't never succeed,you need market sense and wisdom,patience humility...these soldiers need to be at the table for every decision..so far i don;t see their presence anywhere........you need to be 2 people right now..the ego jay which is all of you at the moment..and the wise silent jay sitting up on the ledge looking down at your every move... silent jay has to put ego jay in the crib and keep him there
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http://www.karenhurd.com/concern_adhd.html...this explains neurotransmitters..when you need a boost ,keep some ginseng around
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couple of things, if your acct is so small that a loss will kill you,wait til you have more to trade with,if this is not a problem,then it mat be that your poorly wired ,your full of beliefs,they are personal and chosen ,accepted ,things you are accustomed to thinking,good or bad,your comfortable because of the familiarity and a proven amount of time coping with such beliefs hasn't killed you,so your fear of death is somewhat in check...we are all in denial,no ones belief system is foolproof and we must fool ourselves into believing it is,it lowers our inhibitions,anxiety and fears...you are seeing a shrink and taking meds to alter your mental state..unless your mental state is caused by uncontrollable chemical build ups or chemical deficiencys,chemicals won't fix the problem....Challenge your belief system.toss out every belief as false and rebuild ,use true and false questions what to accept as fact and discard any whimful assumption of truth unless you are absolutely sure it;s true,this method of recognizing what you see and of that what you understand and don't understand is the type of mental process you need to use for each trade,the dumber you become the more you will know,all the areas that you are dumb in will be recognized as an area you can;t find the truth in and will not follow or adhere to,minimizing the number of misbeliefs you rechoose to accept....be rudimentary in your list of new accepted beliefs,bodily functions, stimulus of the 5 senses,your height and weight,.your list needs to start with undeniable truths,rebuild from there
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for 3 years,have also been unable to grasp what fractal meant on a chart,thank you for the explanation,it's a fraction of a move,or a fractional movement in a larger picture of movements,
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on trend days the uvol or dvol flatlines for most of the day while its counterpart steadily increases, its very obvious on a uvol/dvol comparison graph, which i don''t know how to post,you stay in your position until the ration begins to shrink,it's one of the best ways to trade using mp as it usually stops at each virgin poc on the way and you can get out and back in on the smalll bounces with a clear bias
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for the es i use the spx profiles
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i make a habit of picturing myself sitting up on a ledge,with the right emotion,thought ,answer,action...in tune with god....and that me on the ledge watching the me below make the mistakes ,for pride ,stupidity,sloth,exhaustion, a million reasons,and constantly reassuring or correcting myself as life goes on...i'm of the belief that we intuitively know the difference between right and wrong,where the markets going,how things are,... we (humans) just spend our lives....most of us...never getting control of our egos..consequently letting the ego control us...with predictable results documented over and over thruout history
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on fri,2/13 there was an es bid of 826 that was the low til 12 :30 -1 pm cst,we had been there 4 times and stopped,thats a ledge,when i see a ledge i suspect it will not hold,each time we approach it if u are watching the uvol/dvol ,when we were at 828-831 the uvol was 140 and the dvol 260 ,or a 7 to 13 negative ratio, i shorted 28 for a sh scalp and watched that ratio,i was willing to cover at 26 but the ratio kept getting worse,es went to 822.75 and the ratio started to reverse ,i covered 24.50,didnt catch the bottom,but the fact that the ledge would most likely be broken and the ratio was working in my favor,this became a high probability trade,the touch i mentioned was the ledge at 826 would continue to keep being touched
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blowfish,if you watch market profile these bids or offers that hold fo ra part of a day are broken 80% of the time so on a break u can buy or sell and grab a point or 3 and see if the move continues,it is usually in the case of a bid , a house holding up the price so they can distribute,buy 1 sell 1.5 or 2 or 3,it's usually disguised pretty well but if u watch the uvol/dol on the touch and the move away from the touch it's more often than not a divergence and a good fade
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MP was designed by a bondtrader standing in the pit who already knew how to read price action and knew what large orders were flowing in and out of the crowd,for example,morgan stanley has been buying for 3 weeks,mp showed him a point or several where the rally might stall if that point didnt hold u colud buy and expect to cover on the next point.. Its a simple and very useful tool when its not overanalyzed,it just shows u where the most buyers and sellers converge and where there are the fewest,the gaps. Market momentum will be present several times thruout the day and the mp shows you where its likely to stall or it will at least get to that point,sometimes thats 20 points ,sometimes 2,but if u use it in a simple way its a great scalping tool.
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Sky High VIX, Driven by a Lack of Leverage?
ammo replied to thrunner's topic in Market News & Analysis
i think its more liquidation of some larger players and will continue til months end,in january when we had that limit down before opening,the nikie was down huge and there was a lot of liquidation in asia,i assume thats happening again,the large hedge funds who talk to each other daily,shopping orders for their customers,know whos in trouble,wait and buy lowere if they know there will be an above average amount of supply,and you get these huge market swings..this is only an assumption -
thanks for the link minno,steve, at the cboe from '78-91
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notice on soul's chart the untraded area between 10/9 and 10/10 ,with 3 letters or less(not a rule)we shot past it on 15th and 16th,still un filled,then came and filled the next few days,that may be the same setup formed between 21st and 22nd,gap up next 2 days ,leave that same area unfilled,then sell off back into it
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One of the first ones you learn in the pit is whether it's trading on the bid or the offer,how long a new lower bid lasts when we are goimg down,this will give you the speed of the move or a tip as to how many sellers are around,this momentum and movement will give you a sense of the two teams,bears and bulls,and who's dominating. On the dom,the market trades to size so if its 150x450 size and the market is 950.25-950.50,you know that the 450 offer is fake and trying to hold the market here so he can accumulate or fill his buy order,and we will go up,or towards the size. When the dom all of the sudden goes 100o or 2000 up , a larger bid and offer than you've been accustomed to, you know that the recent move has met a price where there will be a battle,possibloy a continuation,or a reversal. Steve whats the squawk you mentioned?
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as you use your indicators to get in and out,you use stops to protect your entry's,if you are watching the leading economic vehicles{at present it's currencies)as they run up and down ,you get a feel for who has the momentum,like a fotball game,so even if your indicators say buy this breakout,your tape reading skills say fakeout,there is no way to meticulously explain this,it's more of an overall gist,and at first you will see or feel it occassionally and slowly more often
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hunter may be a better trader than a writer,his point of tape reading is well documented everywhere,the point he left out is,you need thousands of hours of screen time and the use of indicators before it sinks in,that the indicator you are watching is about to crossover,or the volume bar will be small,or the mp chart is about to fill this gap,or will fill and run past,or the market will open higher or lower tommorrow,that all comes by osmossis no matter what your using,but it still takes a lot of time for most,before they see it,and the indicators must be used as a means to an end ,not a crutch for life. I am presently,for as long as it works,using the usd/jpy,transports and mp,along with trendlines in the previous 2 and the es,for support and res lines and see how it reacts when 1 of the 3 reaches,and the ratio of up'down vol for a trend day or a range day,with all those , i still read the tape ,even when i have a feel for the market,its nice to know where to expect the turns
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you should use the most heavily weighted because if they are trading a basket against the future,(arbitrage),those are the stocks they will hit, and when they move, the future will also. They only use a small number of heavily traded stocks in a basket,GE doesnt move that much but it is a heavily traded stock in volume terms,the most heavily traded stocks on avg are the ones that are being used in the arb baskets
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yesterday at noon cst,we had a bottom half of a boob and u knew we would have to draw in the top by the end of the day. The spu's were trading 1270,71 at the time. We also had a trendline on a weekly coming in at 1281. So u knew where to unload or reverse. Intraday turning points to me don't appear that often,not in an obvious way at least
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svensa, i've heard this before and am working on it, thanks for reminding me
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do you or have you known anyone who has visited a shrink thinking that would help and they continue seeing the shrink for 2 or 3 years,maybe it was a bad shrink but most likely the person had trouble changing there ways,it would be possible to teach that person how to drive a car without their changing their mental habits,same in trading,changing your personal life is very hard and very few can change, the thing that is hardest to see is the personal changes necessary to move forward ,most spend their time changing the mechanics of trading,it's no different than real life,the core problem seldom changes, those problems are deeply imbedded human weaknesses which will always seem to repeat history,or do you believe in world peace