mickeybh

Unfortunately for me I had to be in meetings yesterday. Still teed! However the way I play these big news events especially the FMOC is to simply put a stop buy above and stop sell below at the news release time. Worst case it head fakes me down executes the sell then goes and executes the buy. In that case you lose, but you lose the spread usually 5 points or so. I do that with half size then add the other half if the market is going my way (whichever way). Yesterday was a good example of how this would have worked well. Don't know if I would have gotten the other half on or not. I agree the big boys are averaging, but they all don't agree on direction, so there is a lot of two sided trade. Anything done by the little guy at theses events is a pure gamble, even the way I do it. Many times the market moves one way then the other. Most of the time I'll get a little out of it. The only way to be a consistent winner is to trade with whatever works for you and trade with confidence and win.

Yea but those big traders you mention here are trading much larger time frames and averaging their positions. They may have 50,000 eminis from multiple months, along with individual stocks. They are the institutional traders that trade the IRAs 401ks of the world. They buy and sell all the time, we on the other hand have to earn our living day by day, and we best be comfortable in whatever method we use to make our decisions. If we have no confidence just don't even bother you will lose. I am also an order flow guy, along with market delta footprint so I can see the accumulation of the bid ask vol. That's why I can confidently get long when I see 15 to 25 thousand contracts hitting the bids in 6 price levels and 10 to 15 thousand on the ask in a 30 minute or so period. I will try to get long at the lower end of that range. If it breaks lower I'm out or reversed, higher I ride. But that's me it may not be you.

Let me try to help. Three websites, look them up on google. Jigsaw trading, nobsdaytrading and alpha reveal. I use jigsaw and just started using alpha reveal. Trading is hard, and you have to be willing to risk money without being afraid. I'm still baffled as to how one day I'm in sync and the next I lose. Here are some of my observations. I will assume a certain level of knowledge. When the 5 levels of bis and offers are divergent (one total larger assume offers larger by 2,000). Say offers are 1,500 to 2,000 higher then the bids, look for accumulation on the bids. What they are trying to do is to induce traders to sell by making the market look weak. They buy on the bids (may be up to 6 price levels. When you see this try to get long with a tight stop. When the totals come back to even a move up may follow. I see the moves happen as the bids and offers are in sync. Also sometimes they fail, new sellers come in and push through the accumulation then the longs start covering and you get a great fast move. If market is moving down look for 2,000+ contracts hitting the bids and price having hard time getting past that bid. Strong bid, refreshing orders, bullish sign. If the market builds up vol on both sides you have to wait to see which way it breaks. Most breaks are false, I try to play with half size and get out if it moves back against me. If I have 2 - 5 tick profit and it starts coming back take the profit (you can get back in). Also if vol picks up to the other side it false broke up then moves down big. That's because there are traders on both sides and one side has to cover. The pros are really really good at faking moves, I actually think at times they are playing each other and we ams get caught in the middle. They move quick we let our losses mount. When the action starts we can freeze like a deer while they are trading quick. That's why these 4 to 6 point moves happen in 4 minutes. The moves happen when one side buyers or sellers are wrong, they know it and start covering. You will see this with the tape going crazy with big orders hitting and price moving quick. If you're wrong hit the reverse key. I try to stay flat and wait till I see clearly absorption or one sided volume. It is hard. I reccomend simulating trade for 6 weeks and see how you do before live. You have to put in the hours to start making sense of it, but you will make sense of it. Goto those websites and good luck.

Humbled, how are you doing? I had two bad days Friday and Monday, but back to winning Tues and yesterday. Hoping you're doing well.

An idea there, watch fast money on cnbc, they often talk about trades they take in the eminis. Also think about some option strategies on SPY or even the emini. When I trade options I try to sell premium as well as buy premium. One trade I do on gld is sell the weekly puts at say 131.50 and buy the 131.00s for a .10 to .15 cent net credit for two day risk. Put a stop at say 30 cents. on 100 contracts. you're risking $1,500 to make $1500ish. Max loss if market really moves fast is $3,500 (never has happened but could). This is for TWO DAYS. I've been stopped once on this trade since March. Lot's of ideas. Another trade is look at the uvxy. Look at the spread between the calls at the dec exp. the 38 to 45ish. You can buy the 38 and sell the 45 for a net debit under two. That spread will widen as the price of uvxy moves up and you have plenty of time.You are effectively controlling 7 points for 1.60 or so. I'm in at 34 to 40 for 1.45. That aint bad and we'ree getting some movement hear. So put some time in and think. As I write I'm letting the emini run, picked up 2.5 and it is still going up. That's the way it goes. I'll catch it on the other side. Do it, you just have to be careful but just do it.

Humbled, I just read about 5 of your posts. First let me say that Pheonix gave you good advice. Listen I've been where you are. You are afraid of the market. No confidence. This is a game of numbers. The major league hitter that bats 325 is at the top, but that means he's out 675 times out of every 1000 ABs. To be at the top in this game you need 550 or better. The 45% losers have to be controlled. There are no targets, lines, rules, there is just trading. Does the market rotate around various numbers sure, Is there price discovery, increase range, you bet, market profile, no question, does the market care, nope!. Why does one day the market open above yesterdays high and trade all the way down to the lows and another stays above. I don't know (some idea but dont care), but as you watch the tape you will start to see. Supply and demand, bids offers buyers sellers, you need to make sense of them and it is not easy. To become a trader (and I learned the hard way too) you have to put in the time. Simulate, get you batting average up. Take trades gain the confidence, then you will become successful. I did and it is providing me with extra $$$$, and baby that's nice. Still a long way to go, but I know what I don't know (or some of at least) and now I'm trading live, making money (slow) but every hour I trade is more practice and more stats. That's my 1.5 cents. If you were in the room and said trade, I'd go long or short at that moment and 60% of the time I would make money, 1 2 4 8 12 ticks but I would make money 60% of the time. That's where you have to get. Go for it.

Humbled, I'm just poking around and saw this thread. May I make a suggestion. You are way way to hung up on charts. I've been there done that. Support resistance, high low mid point blah blah. Analysis paralysis. Go to jigsawtrading.com and nobsdyatrading.com. Read about what a market really is. How the pros trade. Simulate and practice. Take more trades. I see you journalize (I record my sessions), most important keep stats on total trades and winning per cent. If you can do 60%ish, then when you come back to live you know you bat 60. Then you won't be afraid of the market. highs lows etc are important but you have to understand what is really going on. Once I did I have become decent and still improving. I bat right at 60, and average 10 trades in a full day, still have problem areas but live now and winning every week, though I want to be a lot better. Best of luck,.

Make less or lose some, but will keep at it.

Two quick things, first at the news usually the market head fakes. Don't know if the bigboys can intentionally do this or if it is a natural result of all the pressure. If I try (and I do) I'm a one lotter and you can get singed. Usually better to wait. Second check out orderflowdashpro.com. Found it over the weekend. Cheaper than Market Delta and might have some features they dont. Anyway why I need MD is because I need to see when they are testing a swingpoint if vol is picking up or slowing down at the extreme. You see those 3 min bars hit the same high or low twice and then move the other way, or subsequent trade takes price higher. That 3 6 10 min vol can tell you a lot about what's gonna happen. You need both the sequence of events (DOM) and the total bid ask at price for that stretch of time (MD). And we know that anything can happen. So that is a set up I like to trade because if I'm wrong I'm out with a small loss. On the DOM it's hard to see because of all the vol that might have been traded at those prices earlier. No matter how you slice it they don't give you much, you've got to take it. As Jock Ewing said to Bobby, "Power is something you take, not earn." Love that quote for you old guys like me who's girlfriends got them into Dallas sooooo many years ago. Well I feel profits in this game are something you take, cause they aint handing them out.

Thanks Richard, but honestly after the hard work I've put into this, that's what I expect of myself. You need the goal then measure your performance then go from there. Maybe the $1,000 is on the high side but will get there.

My comment to you is simply that buying and selling occur over time, so time is a factor. When the market is testing a top it may take 2 minutes to break through or 20. Also the resting orders are extremely important as the market order hitting the bid is a buyer buying on the bid. sell 1 buy 1. When bids in a 5 tick range suck in 10 12 15 thousand contracts, where is the aggression. Buying or selling. If you trade every ocurrance of volume spikes and change in Delta your bank account will go down.

Correction the new effects the market, you may perhaps be able to see it on the DOM first or better. Quite frankly you are gambling when you hold a position at the news, let the big boys play that game, come in after things settle down.

You know I just joined in here. I've already had replies to my posts. This is GREAT. You know you read you think and you learn. I truely believe that a successfull trader's method is what gives that trader his confidence. I once read that the market goes up and it goes down, not complicated, pick you're trade and trade. That's obviously simplistic, but I often wonder how well one would do flipping a coin. Never tried it. When it gets right down to it it is all about probability. I've simulated now 100s of trades and I'm batting about 59% and am net up. So now I can say that the way I'm reading the market is giving me more winning reads then losers. So that's good. I'm controlling my losses. That's good. I know where I screw up, that's good. Will I improve, most definetly. So now I will go live and bring the confidence into that trading. Will I trade the same, probably not exactly, but if I keep the confidence and the stats and improve I will be successful. And that's the name of the game. So if you trade charts, read the tape, follow the indicators of your choice, flip a coin, and it works and gives you the confidence to trade. Don't let any of this banter change you. If however its not working then read and try and practice. Remember the first time you rode a bike or drove a car. Now you can do those things with your eyes closed and one arm tied. So practice and confidence are the ingrediants. Has taken me many hours and a few dollars to learn this. Because I'm stubborn. BYE

Thank you Steve. I do agree totally with your assessment there. I have a protfolio that I trade and do fairly good. That's real money and my savings so I'm very careful. I love fast money, record and watch every day. They are on it. If I'm interested in a stock I might sell puts to enter or just buy, but always averageing in. As much as I agree with you on the macro and the time frame, daytrading is different. It really is. Look at the charts of the S&P cash. intraday moves and range. The daytrader's job is to make money out of those moves. When the big boys come in, the only way you see it is on the tape, or should I say the fastest way to see it. Volume and accumulation moves the markets short and long term. The big boys are averaging in and out and playing with a very small percentage of their overall positions. They are picking up money daily trading the markets, otherwise fundamentals would be the only driver of prices. It's not on the short term. The S&P move from 1702 back to 1689 doesn't reflect the fundamentals at all, but a move to 1500 would, or a move to 1750 would. It's inbetween where the daytrader has to play. Currently I feel we're at a top, I'm out of stocks but in a few other things. Could be right could be wrong, but whether I'm right or wrong doesn't tell me if the emini market will open up or down tomorrow, and if it will go back to 1700 or trade down to 1675, but the tape (trading action) will give me a clue. And whatever it does is just trading in those 7 hours and becomes part of the context of the overall trend, wherever it's heading. Do agree at all with that logic, because what you said is very relevant and in fact very interesting.

We shall see won't we. Everybody is long. The commentators, analysts the barber, the cab driver, the friends at work. We know what's happened in the past. Some of the naysayers are sayin we are seeing classic distribution up here. I hope they are right. A 10% pullback would be very nice. TBT is where I think we can make some bucks. I'm hoping for the yield (10 yr) to pull back to 2 or so, then long TBT again. In fact as I said thinking of selling the Dec 70 puts maybe 68, will be glad to own it at that price. Nat gas (UNG) I'm in halfway here will keep buying slow, as we'll see the low 20s (maybe more) again this winter. I'm afraid of all my favorite stocks just nose bleeding highs here. I think after we pull back and start moving again, I like Apple, and I'm pissed I never touched facebook. Don't understand Netflix, I will keep buying puts because one of these days that one is gonna crash. Too much right has to happen and if they think they will own that space well I think some other players may have something to say about that. Gold miners ahh dont know. Housing over for now. That's about what I play. Over and out and happy trading.

Thanks Richard, this is a tough ballgame, not for the faint of heart. Knowing what you're doing is 90% of the game. My goal is just to make maybe a grand a week to start, keeping 1 to 2 lot trades. I enter with half then add the other half if I get the chance. I know you probably know but you can get some good traded in from 0630 to 0900, because it's all speculative at that point, and the action is slower, which gives me a better read.

Cumulative delta shows you the delta for the entire session, and while you can obviously see the changes, I like to see the breakdown at the price levels over time. If we're at S/R or high / low, or congestion, then I can see the absorption and or buy or sell vol drying up. So as the market tests say a top over 5 - 30 minutes I'm looking for decreasing orders hitting the ask at the highs. That is hard to see on the DOM. If the reversal is quicker, often you'll see two to three price levels holding or absorbing the buying. Then buying decreases then the move down. So I use 3, 15 and 30 minute footprint bars to get the picture of the volume and watching the DOM to see the resistance of that volume put up by the resting orders. Because what's happening at 1400 (time) is totally different then what happened at 1000. Also I look at higher time frames in regular candles. Just for reference and I try not to allow myself to form a bias, easier said than done though. BTW all of the posts that say watching the tape is worthless. It is the only way to trade. When the order flow changes price will follow in 80%. Now sometimes it reverses again 5 to 20 ticks lower (higher) but the volume has to be there and to the degree that the buying (selling) is taking out the offers (bids). Traders willing to trade higher (lower). Also are the bids (offers) pulling as price gets close. You see a 3,000 offer 3 prices above and buyers takes out the 2 levels and then that level with just 780 contracts. That 3,000 offer got out of the way. That's how I trade. Also watch the average size (I can see the orders hitting the tape so I get a sense that way), you'll see the lack of bigger orders as the market tops or bottoms. There's a whole lot more to it (still learning) but getting the direction right is at least half the battle. I'm doing pretty good at the entries, now I need to work on the exits. I tend to get out too early. Lately I've been improving there, but you know once you have a 8 to 12 tick profit and it comes back half way its hard, I bail, then get back in. Out of a 10 point move if I get 4 to 5 out of it I'm happy for now. That's where the emotion hits me, when I'm 6 to 8 ticks down in a trade I'm calm. They will head fake and sometimes I double up averaging (goes against the rules but not convinced the rules are totally valid). Usually it's those trades where I make my money. So I'm doubling when others are getting their stops hit. We all have had our stops hit to the tick, got to be willing to put $500 to 600 on the line. My question is will I do it once I'm live. That's the question. Goto Zigsawtrading. Excellent explanation of the 4-way auction theory. If you don't understand that the market is a 4-way auction, stick with the day job. And people that think the resting orders are meaningless. Well watch 10 to 20 thousand contracts trade into the bids in 5 price levels, they hold and see what happens. Get long, if moves down another 6 ticks and another 15,000 hit a smaller 2 to 3 levels double it. That's accumulation. Delta from 6,000 to -16,000 it's crashing, your stops are hit, you might get short, and boom up 25 ticks. If you're long and they break the first level and (where you entered) and the sellers are hitting it hard and the bids don't slow it at another 6 ticks, get out take the loss, don't chase, wait for another shot. If it holds (where you enter) I will often add to the position. So bassically I enter with half size then add the other half. Sometimes I don't get the chance sometimes I do. But a 6 to 8 tick winner is a good thing half size or whole size.... Oh yea winners thats the name of the game. No one has ever gone broke taking a winning trade down. Now I'm not great by any means, and I make it sound easy, its not, but as I simulate trade the more I see it the better I understand it. The better I understand it the more confident I get. No confidence no profits, plain and simple. The DOM shows the excitement the footprint shows the volume distribution over time. It's kind of like poker (yet its not), but when you get pocket aces, you feel pretty confident, can you get beat, yep, but if you bet and and take some guys out of the hand you increase your chances. That's kind of what you have to do here, take the jacks or better trades then make your bet and manage the trade, you'll find if you don't let the losers take a lot of your daily limit, take the winners down, have confidence you'll make money. And practice before you go live. I wish I had the technology and the education I have now 10 years ago. I've tried tick bars volume bars and find that time bars are best. I can see price, I'm looking for what the vol is doing to make the price move or not. Sorry about the wind!!! LOL happy trading, and hope this sheds some light.

There is an is. The resting orders is (are) the resting orders. When the market orders hit them they react and become is again. It is this interaction that one reads, thus reading the tape. Comparetively on a chart you just see a line going up and down. When that line sits still for 10 seconds it could be because no trades happened or because 1500 contract just hit the bid and noone hit the offer. That's is what happened. That's valuable info (to me at least).

Two sites that will help tremendously. Zigsawtrading.com (google it). Nobsdaytrading.com after completely reading all these sites get the zigsaw DOM use the footprint chart and be prepared to put in a lot of screen time. simulate trade until its cllicking. I estimate anywhere from 100 to 200 hours, if it isn't happening then reading the tape aint for you. Those hours will get you to the live trade part then keep improving. It's a tough game, but once you start seeing it you'll understand what makes the market tick (no pun intended)... LOL

I hope MightMouse is right as I'm long UVXY and SDS..... LOL Not hurt too bad.... YET, just been a drag on overall profits. Flat all my stocks and playing the VIX, short S&P and Natgas, trying to figure out when to re-enter TBT took it from 60 to 75ish, now will it fall back into the high 60s for re-entry. Thinking of selling the Dec 70 puts and see.

I have been demo trading for about 6 weeks. I have plenty of live trading experience all to about a breakeven. I think two reasons. 1. never worked at it hard enough, 2. I didnt know what real trading was. Recently I have educated myself with reading the order flow, reading the tape etc. I have bought the zigsaw DOM, and use the footprint charts. I know what trading money is but need to see if this new look / way of trading would help. As the poster who says you have to learn to trade, it is true. I also traded a combine at TopStep trader and came very close to passing it, taken new job so can't go that route. To conclude, if taken seriously, demo trading will get you to an understanding of what it will take to trade. I have traded the size (1 to 4) and limits (24 tick loss) I believe I will trade live and am profitable consistently over the 6 weeks (partial and full days). I have done a few trades I know I would'nt do live, but few. My winner ratio is about 60-40, which isnt bad and make 200 to 500 on 1 to 4 contracts (when I win), biggest draw down about 700 which hopefully I wont get stupid like that live. Overall up $4,100. So now the test, I have flexible hours so I plan to trade the ES from about 0700 EST thru the open. One thing about trading is you have to confident and cant be afraid of losing a little money it will happen, just dont lose big. We will see.

OK I dont have much experience in these forums. Followed the markets all my life. traded emini options and contract, even before emini. breakeven. used footprint charts as well as candles, breakeven. Knew there was something more. Yep, except for the footprint when used with the DOM charts are useless. Yes I like a picture of where we've been, swingpoints, general trend, but beyond that there is no value in the charts. There are no rules, no magic formula. Only you. Still working but I have turned the corner. My trade ratio is in the low 60% winner. It does work and it will take time, however if you read the tape and throw out your bias (except the bias of the trade you're about to enter), then you will become profitable and will continue to improve that profitablitiy. Two sites, zigsawtrading.com and nobsdaytrading.com. Visit them, read all the free stuff. I bought the zigsaw DOM (very cheap for what it does). Bought the $50 course on nobs. The rest you have to learn. This game is hard but easy at the same time. You will see how the pros trade. When you get right down to it you need to determine when and where the boys want to play, determine where the volume is being accumulated and go with it. Accumulation most always ocurrs before the move. You can see it. Then feel how strong and adjust size and enter. Only two outcomes. I also average in and usually all out. If I see accumulation at say 1690 down to 1688 then a quick drop to 86.75 (stops) but bounce right back with market orders I put on another trade to average down, then when / if the move happens as soon as it slows or stops I'm out. Fine line but is working very well. You just get a feel and that's what trading is the feel and nothing can give it to better than watching the orderlow. My 1.5 cents.