mickeybh

Unfortunately for me I had to be in meetings yesterday. Still teed! However the way I play these big news events especially the FMOC is to simply put a stop buy above and stop sell below at the news release time. Worst case it head fakes me down executes the sell then goes and executes the buy. In that case you lose, but you lose the spread usually 5 points or so. I do that with half size then add the other half if the market is going my way (whichever way). Yesterday was a good example of how this would have worked well. Don't know if I would have gotten the other half on or not. I agree the big boys are averaging, but they all don't agree on direction, so there is a lot of two sided trade. Anything done by the little guy at theses events is a pure gamble, even the way I do it. Many times the market moves one way then the other. Most of the time I'll get a little out of it. The only way to be a consistent winner is to trade with whatever works for you and trade with confidence and win.

Yea but those big traders you mention here are trading much larger time frames and averaging their positions. They may have 50,000 eminis from multiple months, along with individual stocks. They are the institutional traders that trade the IRAs 401ks of the world. They buy and sell all the time, we on the other hand have to earn our living day by day, and we best be comfortable in whatever method we use to make our decisions. If we have no confidence just don't even bother you will lose. I am also an order flow guy, along with market delta footprint so I can see the accumulation of the bid ask vol. That's why I can confidently get long when I see 15 to 25 thousand contracts hitting the bids in 6 price levels and 10 to 15 thousand on the ask in a 30 minute or so period. I will try to get long at the lower end of that range. If it breaks lower I'm out or reversed, higher I ride. But that's me it may not be you.

Let me try to help. Three websites, look them up on google. Jigsaw trading, nobsdaytrading and alpha reveal. I use jigsaw and just started using alpha reveal. Trading is hard, and you have to be willing to risk money without being afraid. I'm still baffled as to how one day I'm in sync and the next I lose. Here are some of my observations. I will assume a certain level of knowledge. When the 5 levels of bis and offers are divergent (one total larger assume offers larger by 2,000). Say offers are 1,500 to 2,000 higher then the bids, look for accumulation on the bids. What they are trying to do is to induce traders to sell by making the market look weak. They buy on the bids (may be up to 6 price levels. When you see this try to get long with a tight stop. When the totals come back to even a move up may follow. I see the moves happen as the bids and offers are in sync. Also sometimes they fail, new sellers come in and push through the accumulation then the longs start covering and you get a great fast move. If market is moving down look for 2,000+ contracts hitting the bids and price having hard time getting past that bid. Strong bid, refreshing orders, bullish sign. If the market builds up vol on both sides you have to wait to see which way it breaks. Most breaks are false, I try to play with half size and get out if it moves back against me. If I have 2 - 5 tick profit and it starts coming back take the profit (you can get back in). Also if vol picks up to the other side it false broke up then moves down big. That's because there are traders on both sides and one side has to cover. The pros are really really good at faking moves, I actually think at times they are playing each other and we ams get caught in the middle. They move quick we let our losses mount. When the action starts we can freeze like a deer while they are trading quick. That's why these 4 to 6 point moves happen in 4 minutes. The moves happen when one side buyers or sellers are wrong, they know it and start covering. You will see this with the tape going crazy with big orders hitting and price moving quick. If you're wrong hit the reverse key. I try to stay flat and wait till I see clearly absorption or one sided volume. It is hard. I reccomend simulating trade for 6 weeks and see how you do before live. You have to put in the hours to start making sense of it, but you will make sense of it. Goto those websites and good luck.

Humbled, how are you doing? I had two bad days Friday and Monday, but back to winning Tues and yesterday. Hoping you're doing well.

An idea there, watch fast money on cnbc, they often talk about trades they take in the eminis. Also think about some option strategies on SPY or even the emini. When I trade options I try to sell premium as well as buy premium. One trade I do on gld is sell the weekly puts at say 131.50 and buy the 131.00s for a .10 to .15 cent net credit for two day risk. Put a stop at say 30 cents. on 100 contracts. you're risking $1,500 to make $1500ish. Max loss if market really moves fast is $3,500 (never has happened but could). This is for TWO DAYS. I've been stopped once on this trade since March. Lot's of ideas. Another trade is look at the uvxy. Look at the spread between the calls at the dec exp. the 38 to 45ish. You can buy the 38 and sell the 45 for a net debit under two. That spread will widen as the price of uvxy moves up and you have plenty of time.You are effectively controlling 7 points for 1.60 or so. I'm in at 34 to 40 for 1.45. That aint bad and we'ree getting some movement hear. So put some time in and think. As I write I'm letting the emini run, picked up 2.5 and it is still going up. That's the way it goes. I'll catch it on the other side. Do it, you just have to be careful but just do it.

Humbled, I just read about 5 of your posts. First let me say that Pheonix gave you good advice. Listen I've been where you are. You are afraid of the market. No confidence. This is a game of numbers. The major league hitter that bats 325 is at the top, but that means he's out 675 times out of every 1000 ABs. To be at the top in this game you need 550 or better. The 45% losers have to be controlled. There are no targets, lines, rules, there is just trading. Does the market rotate around various numbers sure, Is there price discovery, increase range, you bet, market profile, no question, does the market care, nope!. Why does one day the market open above yesterdays high and trade all the way down to the lows and another stays above. I don't know (some idea but dont care), but as you watch the tape you will start to see. Supply and demand, bids offers buyers sellers, you need to make sense of them and it is not easy. To become a trader (and I learned the hard way too) you have to put in the time. Simulate, get you batting average up. Take trades gain the confidence, then you will become successful. I did and it is providing me with extra $$$$, and baby that's nice. Still a long way to go, but I know what I don't know (or some of at least) and now I'm trading live, making money (slow) but every hour I trade is more practice and more stats. That's my 1.5 cents. If you were in the room and said trade, I'd go long or short at that moment and 60% of the time I would make money, 1 2 4 8 12 ticks but I would make money 60% of the time. That's where you have to get. Go for it.

Humbled, I'm just poking around and saw this thread. May I make a suggestion. You are way way to hung up on charts. I've been there done that. Support resistance, high low mid point blah blah. Analysis paralysis. Go to jigsawtrading.com and nobsdyatrading.com. Read about what a market really is. How the pros trade. Simulate and practice. Take more trades. I see you journalize (I record my sessions), most important keep stats on total trades and winning per cent. If you can do 60%ish, then when you come back to live you know you bat 60. Then you won't be afraid of the market. highs lows etc are important but you have to understand what is really going on. Once I did I have become decent and still improving. I bat right at 60, and average 10 trades in a full day, still have problem areas but live now and winning every week, though I want to be a lot better. Best of luck,.

Make less or lose some, but will keep at it.

Two quick things, first at the news usually the market head fakes. Don't know if the bigboys can intentionally do this or if it is a natural result of all the pressure. If I try (and I do) I'm a one lotter and you can get singed. Usually better to wait. Second check out orderflowdashpro.com. Found it over the weekend. Cheaper than Market Delta and might have some features they dont. Anyway why I need MD is because I need to see when they are testing a swingpoint if vol is picking up or slowing down at the extreme. You see those 3 min bars hit the same high or low twice and then move the other way, or subsequent trade takes price higher. That 3 6 10 min vol can tell you a lot about what's gonna happen. You need both the sequence of events (DOM) and the total bid ask at price for that stretch of time (MD). And we know that anything can happen. So that is a set up I like to trade because if I'm wrong I'm out with a small loss. On the DOM it's hard to see because of all the vol that might have been traded at those prices earlier. No matter how you slice it they don't give you much, you've got to take it. As Jock Ewing said to Bobby, "Power is something you take, not earn." Love that quote for you old guys like me who's girlfriends got them into Dallas sooooo many years ago. Well I feel profits in this game are something you take, cause they aint handing them out.

Thanks Richard, but honestly after the hard work I've put into this, that's what I expect of myself. You need the goal then measure your performance then go from there. Maybe the $1,000 is on the high side but will get there.

My comment to you is simply that buying and selling occur over time, so time is a factor. When the market is testing a top it may take 2 minutes to break through or 20. Also the resting orders are extremely important as the market order hitting the bid is a buyer buying on the bid. sell 1 buy 1. When bids in a 5 tick range suck in 10 12 15 thousand contracts, where is the aggression. Buying or selling. If you trade every ocurrance of volume spikes and change in Delta your bank account will go down.

Correction the new effects the market, you may perhaps be able to see it on the DOM first or better. Quite frankly you are gambling when you hold a position at the news, let the big boys play that game, come in after things settle down.

You know I just joined in here. I've already had replies to my posts. This is GREAT. You know you read you think and you learn. I truely believe that a successfull trader's method is what gives that trader his confidence. I once read that the market goes up and it goes down, not complicated, pick you're trade and trade. That's obviously simplistic, but I often wonder how well one would do flipping a coin. Never tried it. When it gets right down to it it is all about probability. I've simulated now 100s of trades and I'm batting about 59% and am net up. So now I can say that the way I'm reading the market is giving me more winning reads then losers. So that's good. I'm controlling my losses. That's good. I know where I screw up, that's good. Will I improve, most definetly. So now I will go live and bring the confidence into that trading. Will I trade the same, probably not exactly, but if I keep the confidence and the stats and improve I will be successful. And that's the name of the game. So if you trade charts, read the tape, follow the indicators of your choice, flip a coin, and it works and gives you the confidence to trade. Don't let any of this banter change you. If however its not working then read and try and practice. Remember the first time you rode a bike or drove a car. Now you can do those things with your eyes closed and one arm tied. So practice and confidence are the ingrediants. Has taken me many hours and a few dollars to learn this. Because I'm stubborn. BYE

Thank you Steve. I do agree totally with your assessment there. I have a protfolio that I trade and do fairly good. That's real money and my savings so I'm very careful. I love fast money, record and watch every day. They are on it. If I'm interested in a stock I might sell puts to enter or just buy, but always averageing in. As much as I agree with you on the macro and the time frame, daytrading is different. It really is. Look at the charts of the S&P cash. intraday moves and range. The daytrader's job is to make money out of those moves. When the big boys come in, the only way you see it is on the tape, or should I say the fastest way to see it. Volume and accumulation moves the markets short and long term. The big boys are averaging in and out and playing with a very small percentage of their overall positions. They are picking up money daily trading the markets, otherwise fundamentals would be the only driver of prices. It's not on the short term. The S&P move from 1702 back to 1689 doesn't reflect the fundamentals at all, but a move to 1500 would, or a move to 1750 would. It's inbetween where the daytrader has to play. Currently I feel we're at a top, I'm out of stocks but in a few other things. Could be right could be wrong, but whether I'm right or wrong doesn't tell me if the emini market will open up or down tomorrow, and if it will go back to 1700 or trade down to 1675, but the tape (trading action) will give me a clue. And whatever it does is just trading in those 7 hours and becomes part of the context of the overall trend, wherever it's heading. Do agree at all with that logic, because what you said is very relevant and in fact very interesting.

We shall see won't we. Everybody is long. The commentators, analysts the barber, the cab driver, the friends at work. We know what's happened in the past. Some of the naysayers are sayin we are seeing classic distribution up here. I hope they are right. A 10% pullback would be very nice. TBT is where I think we can make some bucks. I'm hoping for the yield (10 yr) to pull back to 2 or so, then long TBT again. In fact as I said thinking of selling the Dec 70 puts maybe 68, will be glad to own it at that price. Nat gas (UNG) I'm in halfway here will keep buying slow, as we'll see the low 20s (maybe more) again this winter. I'm afraid of all my favorite stocks just nose bleeding highs here. I think after we pull back and start moving again, I like Apple, and I'm pissed I never touched facebook. Don't understand Netflix, I will keep buying puts because one of these days that one is gonna crash. Too much right has to happen and if they think they will own that space well I think some other players may have something to say about that. Gold miners ahh dont know. Housing over for now. That's about what I play. Over and out and happy trading.