james_gsx

http://quantifiableedges.blogspot.com/ http://blog.afraidtotrade.com/

:rofl::rofl::rofl:

Because you can't handle volatility?

This bear market is much different then anything we've ever been in, it's the worst financial crisis since the depression. There are multiple bubbles that have been building since post WW2. The bright side is the global economy is doing well, i.e oil rich nations, China, India, etc. We'll probably see the end to American economic dominance as no one wants to hold dollars. Theres really no way around that, since our priority has to be to save the banking system. Oh well, life goes on :o

This one of George Soros new books. This book goes deep into the current financial crisis, and basically what it means. The first half is about his theory of reflexivity and how it applies to the financial markets. He describes how the current theories, and idea that markets trend towards equilibrium but take occasional walks, is wrong. The first half is tough to get through and requires a lot of thinking, but once you understand the idea it becomes very useful. Soros goes over various reasons why the housing bubble and super bubble (also describes what they are and how they formed) and how they apply to his theory of reflexivity. The end is pretty cool, because he does an experiment by listing various trades he took along with several notes. Since it was so recent, it makes it that much more interesting. He even bought BSC that Friday before JPM bid $2 for it. It's a relatively small book, but requires your full attention. Definitely worth the read.

Dude, there are markets for weather, I'm sure we could trade computer knowledge :rofl: Better e-mail the CME We can also trade NFL paper, basically the Browns would be like the YM because they suck, and everyone else can be the ES :haha:

Thanks guys, this totally baffles me. I guess I could always just move the monitors, but thats kind of a last resort thing. Okay... I got the start menu and all of that to go back on the original monitor (on the left), but I still have to move the mouse the wrong direction in order to get to the other screen. So... it's halfway back to normal. Edit: Got it fixed. I uninstalled the updates that were installed before everything went crazy. Then I was able to drag and drop the monitors in the display settings and switch them around. For whatever reason, I couldn't do that before I uninstalled the updates... weird.

I'm not sure where this would go, so mods feel free to move it around. So my computer automatically restarted no thanks to Windows Vista. Well, Windows in it's brilliancy decided to flip flop my monitors. Normally, the larger monitor is the main one I use and where the start menu, etc, is naturally on the left. Well, Windows decided to use my smaller monitor as the main one, and throw everything on the right. Which means in order to make the mouse go from my left monitor to the right, instead of moving it right (like reading a book) I have to go backwards. Here is a screen shot, it's kind of difficult to see because my computer thinks they switched spots. In reality, the screen is halfway on both. Meaning one half is sitting on the lamp next to this monitor, and the other half is hanging over my desk on the other side. I went into the control panel, and sure enough the big monitor is set to be the priority, but for whatever reason that's not the case. I tried restarting and to no avail. Here is an uber big screen shot.

It's okay, I know you're still upset after that miserable drive in 1987 :haha: But it's alright, I prefer physical sports with physically fit athletes James - I say give the poker forum a shot.

Sure, why not? Give us something to do besides just talk about trading since apparently no one likes discussing hockey with me :\

eSignal finally fixed my account. I told them if it wasn't fixed within a certain time frame, I would be taking my business elsewhere. Of course, it was fixed faster than any other problem I've had with them in the past. Go figure. So the 8 EMA continues to show resistance. We had a few small body dojis, followed by a rather big range yesterday, then today a rally that closed near it's highs. Volatility is creeping in, and if the ES can move above the 8 EMA tomorrow I think it would be highly plausible to see a move to the 21 EMA, which happens to 1300 right now. Todays close is at recent support back in March, so time will tell if that holds.

:rofl::rofl::rofl: I never said they were good looking. I like how it takes on after a 30s sports car.

Then you can buy TWO cars! First, the Maybach Exelero for a whopping $7.8mil USD http://www.autoblog.com/2008/07/06/the-maybach-exelero-can-be-yours-for-7-8-million And then the easier to swallow $3.1mil USD (to start, and converted from EUR) one-off Ferrari http://www.autoblog.com/2008/07/07/heck-its-your-money-ferrari-ready-to-build-customer-one-offs I have noticed a lot of these exclusive cars have been built lately. I guess the super rich are upset all the new millionaires are driving the same Lamborghinis and Ferraris, so they want something even more special. We now have the Reventon, a few special edition Bugattis, and now these. So who is going to buy one for me?

I hope everything turns out well for you. I've had plenty of people die around me these last few years, and it may sound pathetic but when my dog passed away I took that the hardest (I had her for 14 years). Good luck, my prayers are with you.

I agree. The "mentors" I've had didn't exactly teach me new things like one would expect. But they helped me in other ways move to the next level. They held me accountable for the most part, and helped me with some of the smaller things that I wouldn't have seen on my own. When I screw up, they help show me where I screwed up. They don't send me their trades or give me their trading system, they help me figure it out on my own.

I'm going to bump this ancient thread :o Here is a chart of the SPY, obviously price has dropped substantially since this thread originated. Tin, what would you setup for a credit spread in this instance? Maybe July 132/133 (but these are nearly worthless) and July 119/118 puts. Would that be on the right track? Also Tin, do you know where on TOS (or anywhere) where I can get tutorials for using their software? EDIT: NVM, figured that part out

I've seen those trader workshops, but there isn't much there (or maybe I'm just ignorant and haven't looked enough). But I think it would be cool if we could expand on that. Maybe offer a work shop on the various strategies discussed here such as VSA, Candlesticks, MP, etc. We could have a few experts on the subject host a chat session to discuss basic, intermediate, or possibly more advanced setups on the strategy. There are a lot of threads, but sometimes a simple chat and quicker interaction can help a lot. I still liked the idea of meeting together in a chat once a week to discuss various things to improve our trading. Such as money management, psychology, etc. I believe a focus on more positive interaction (we have our small confrontations, but that's expected anywhere) would help the site to stay on track and not derail like ET. I honestly think the various forum sections devoted to specific trading styles helps A LOT.

Naturally, I am a more aggressive trader. For equities, I like to be in the trade before the breakout. But on the other hand, I never enter with a big position. In fact, I am extremely conservative in that sense. I realize that if the breakout doesn't come and the stock moves the other way, it quickly wipes out the position due to various components against me such as IV, Delta, etc. On the ES, I typically don't wait for confirmation if I see a setup. I just enter and adjust my risk/reward accordingly. But again, I never take on a big position, but the trade itself could be deemed "aggressive." I also take on other approaches in options that aren't aggressive at all, such as credit spreads. This allows a more consistent income, but it's not as exciting. It's kind of like the bread and butter, it gets the job done. I utilize my other trading strategies because I find it to be more challenging, and I like a challenge.

To be honest, I've never really had a problem. When I traded equities I typically took a long term approach (several weeks) so I wasn't so worried about where I was filled. Now I only use Fidelity for options, and I always enter limit orders. The one time I did use a market order, however, I got a shitty price and I deserved it. But I'm not sure if ATP has an order book style execution platform available, that way you can work your bid like you could on say an ES trade.

I don't see why you would use a platform such as Fidelity ATP if you're day trading and especially scalping. I had Fidelity and I thought their charts were lacking to say the least. And if you're using market orders it's not a matter of being "found" or not, you're setting yourself up for bad fills. If you use limit orders you might miss a few, but those few ticks can add up over the course of say a year. Someone like Brownsfan would probably be able to answer your question about your broker trading against you. I've heard examples of brokers taking the opposite side of your trade in anticipation that you screw up, and eventually blow up. But I'm not sure if that's myth or real.

Well since eSignal decided to screw up my account, I have to use the SPY charts :o Nonetheless, it tells a similar story. Just to clarify, if my memory serves correctly the ES has a spinning top at support, and the SPY has a "hammer" at support. My long term view is still bearish, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a small rally around this area. I wouldn't short, or necessarily go long here (except to hedge). I think the better strategy would be to wait for confirmation of this hammer, or wait for a close below 1,250 (ES) then a move back to that level to act as resistance. We've had 5 straight weeks closing in the red on the SPY, that doesn't setup any type of trades for me but it is something to take note of.

I never actually setup a real trade, it was all hypothetical to explain what OAC saw in his chart as potentially bullish. You were confused because I threw in the ES chart to show the various moving averages as possible exit points, even though the ES wasn't the catalyst for the trade it was instead OAC's chart, the ES was just used as a simple example. The counter trend trade was simple, a tweezer bottom is a very short term bullish pattern (think of it as a double bottom). The trade would be simple, buy at the close and sell depending on your risk management strategies. I don't know the exact amount of points, and I'm not going to go through and calculate it for you as I gave a simple enough example (below the low). I offered the 8ema, 21ema, 1300, etc as various exit points for this type of extreme short term trade. Obviously, one could adjust his risk depending on the possible reward, or you could wait for confirmation before entering the trade. All I simply wanted to show was how the chart OAC posted could actually be considered bullish, but then you tore it apart and it pissed me off. Now I think we can get back to discussing candlesticks, have a nice day. Oh and btw, if you look at yesterdays SPY close at $126.18, we opened at $127.11. Not a huge gain, but it does go to show how that pattern could be a nice counter trend setup if used properly.

Frankly, I'm not even going to respond to that right now, maybe in the morning. I'm sorry, but I just don't feel like going through to explain myself again to someone who will just decide to rip it apart to whatever suits their own trading views. Edit: Since I know most people will take that the wrong way and I don't feel like getting spammed with hatemail I'll do a quick run down for you. It's a tweezer bottom setup, the risk would be just below the low. The reward in this case is the 8 ema or potentially 21ema - shit you could even use Fibs and a 50% retracement I really don't care. I simply estimated that by the time price could potentially hit the 21ema it would be around 1300. Yes, I pulled that fresh out of my ass. It's a simple counter trade setup to help OAC and what he saw in his chart. There are many ways to take this trade, you could wait for confirmation or you don't, it's all up to you. Or, you could short, it all depends on how you trade. Feel free to tear this apart.

This is what I do every night. ES - I write down all the important levels on the ES. This means the previous high/low/close and then close by long term support/resistance levels or whatever could come into affect that day. I plot those lines on the chart and wait for possible setups around those areas. Then I check out the daily chart and write down possible scenarios that could play out the next day. I try to keep my mind open so I don't focus on one possibility, I like to be open to various moves - it is after all a game of numbers and probabilities. I then write down all possible trades and what trades I want to make for the next day. I have a notebook where I can write each option play I exercise. I write down my plan for that position including risk/reward and how I might adjust that strategy depending on how the position plays out. For a very basic explanation, let's say I own 10 SPX puts for a longer term position. I check out the daily charts and decide the next day has a higher probability of moving up. Since I know volatility will eat alive my long puts, I will buy calls to hedge against the move. If I didn't already do this at the close, I will do this in the morning if the setup is right. This way I can hedge my position and protect my profits. Let's also say that stock XYZ is forming a bearish descending triangle and I think it can move $10, I want to make a speculative play. I would then write down a possible play for this stock, for example I look over the various options and greeks and decide to buy 10 puts with a strike $10 away from the current price. I would write this down in my plan, then list a few ways I could adjust the strategy if I gain or lose too much too fast. I would then enter this position at the market open. Now let's say I have a position and I think I have captured the whole move, I would simply write down that I want to exit that position at the open. Then I write down a to-do list for the day, and leave the last 3/4 page of my notebook paper open for intraday notes. Overall, I find this to work very well for me. It allows me to be discretionary, but I still follow some rules and I have a firm grasp of what is going on. It's like any sort of fast paced sport. There are many things happening at once, and I constantly adjust. I have found if I don't use a plan like this every night, I tend to get lost and lose my grip and subsequently lose money. hope it helps.

Honestly, I think the time is right for you to put into a plan of action to run a hedge fund or CTA. Look at where you want to be in a few years, and make goals to get there. That should be your focus, and you will figure out how to get there. Think big.