james_gsx

I agree, definitely risky but the payout is nice when it works out for you. Right now they are down a lot after hours. It's one of those plays that I like to just watch and predict, but not necessarily throw money at :o

GS broke out of what looks to be a cup with handle, and IMO is the strongest financial plays out right now. Let me know what you think. Oh, and about the annotation of getting back in. I was holding GS until yesterday since I wasn't sure what the Fed would do - I didn't like the risk of holding and then having the stock tank.

Good catch on the Monthly Tin. I said in my blog and on here that I was bearish going into today. We did get a bullish engulfing candle, but it ran right into resistance so I am holding my bearish stance until I get confirmation that a long position will hold less risk. That doesn't mean I would go short, it just means I don't like the idea of going long right now. I think the NQ is the best play out of all the indexes. As you can see the NQ clearly broke resistance and with strong volume. Let me know what you guys think.

Tin, had that volume been very strong would you have seen the doji as strength to break through resistance?

Man! I want to work there! :o

Brownsfan, did you actually take that trade? I was just looking over my charts and basically saw the same thing. I also agree with the fact that the Fed news is priced in and the chart is setup to move with what the Fed says. It's easy to say that in hindsight and find everything to agree with the move. (I'm not sure if I'm setting up the support levels right or not, but you get the idea of the wedge). Theres a wedge on the ES, and since the market has been trading sideways for the last few months I would lean towards a bearish setup. This recent rise has been done on very low volume, compared to downward moves have much stronger volume. The ES is also up against resistance, where we saw the spinning top on Monday followed by the bearish candle. Same basic chart on the YM. Does anyone see something I don't see?

So something better would be to wait for confirmation, this would be a better hammer to play on if there was acting resistance around that price level. This could signal a brief consolidation, but nothing to go short on because of the strong rally. Otherwise, don't go short because the chart is overall very bullish.

How is that a hammer if it's at the top of the trend? I understand that it would need bearish confirmation, and I'm not looking to short anything at all - sorry if I worded that wrong. But I'm still confused how that's a hammer and not a hanging man.

Thanks guys, I'm still learning about Greeks because I think they can be a very valuable tool for some of my investments. For example over the summer I had several oil stocks that were making great money, but days that oil fell those stocks fell hard. It would have been great if I had a protective put to add some insurance, but I would have had no idea what I was doing.

The Euro and USD caught my eye on the weekly chart, this appears to be a hanging man on the Euro and an inverted hammer on the USD. I know you would normally want to go short EUR if you get the right confirmation for your trading plan, but would you also want to go long the USD? And also, could this give any type of guidance to the Feds move this week? I remember reading in Nisons books that dojis don't play as big of an influence in a downtrend compared to an uptrend, but is that the same with inverted hammers?

Excuse my ignorance, but how important are the Greeks when you're doing a short term play? For example, let's say I wanted to utilize options for a swing play instead of an ES contract I could setup an options play using SPY or the options backing the ES. Would it really be crucial to look at all the Greeks? I'm not saying I shouldn't learn them, I have been doing that but I am just curious about how relevant they are for such a short term play (like 3 days).

One problem I continually run into is the entry. If I exit on the close of the hammer, it seems that it doesn't work :o When I enter during the middle of the confirmation candle after the highs have been cleared, I seem to find myself in a trap that gets taken out rather quickly. But if I wait for the close of the confirmation candle to enter, then it seems as if the move is already done since those are always the big moves. Obviously I need more experience on when to enter, but I think if we could bounce some ideas around that would really help.

I know I've said this before, but I kind of view trading like a professional sport. You can always be good compared to the average joe, but the only thing that can get you to the pros is PRACTICE aka screen time. When I played soccer back in the day I was invited to play a tournament in Sweden. I had never met any of my team members before, I met them as they arrived at the hotel in Iceland. We had one week to bond then the tournament - we skipped basically every social gathering put together just to practice. Since the sun never really went down over there we practiced all night and honestly, that was the only reason why we were able to compete against the European teams who had played together their entire lives. Sorry that was a bit OT, but I had to put in the story to get my point across that I agree with Brownsfan

I like to use the 8 and 21 EMA when they come across as being useful. Sometimes that's simply not the case and they just seem to be "noise" in which case I follow S/R and the 50 and 200. Brownsfan, thanks for the advice. I am studying Steve Nisons Candlestick Course now and it's definitely helping me out. I will read it more than once though, so I can have a full understanding of all the ideas taught in the book. Are there any other candle "gurus" that you like?

http://www.sfn.org/index.cfm?pagename=brainBriefings_gambling They mention the stock market in the article and different parts of the brain that are affected. The first thing that comes to mind is the newbie trader, who focuses much more on the possibility of making millions rather than getting completely wiped out. It's that overly optimistic view that directs them to ignoring risk, and eventually wiping out their accounts - or in this case becoming an addicted gambler. Check it out, let me know what you think.

Thanks Tin, I was saying hanging man because of the rally the last 2 days. A dragonfly doji is also bullish, so today would be a bullish signal more than a bearish?

Looking at this again, the long shadows the past few days could be telling us buyers are accumulating at the lower prices - which would be bullish. I guess the best thing to do is get a good close above the 100SMA or a decline with a long body?

I wish we could get this thread going again, it helped me out a lot. But anyways, I am going to post some charts from today and if anyone wants to add anything go ahead On the YM I see a possible hanging man right at the 100SMA - which would be bearish. I wouldn't want to go short though until we had confirmation due to the choppiness of the market. On the ES I see a dragonfly doji at the 100SMA which is again bearish. Just like the YM, I would want some sort of intra-day confirmation tomorrow before I went short.

:o Sorry Brownsfan, I wasn't paying attention. Trader Monthly really has nothing to do with trading, but it still makes me motivated to see young people who are successful. It brings up my competitive edge As far as Futures magazine goes, it's a great one as well. I got a free one at the last seminar I went to. It was like a month old so a lot of the info was out of date (talking about big picture stuff like where the dow was at). But I liked it overall.

I've had a free subscription for a while, it really is a good read. I especially enjoy the top 30 under 30 I like to read about some of the younger traders that appear in the magazine, it gives me a little more motivation to see other people a few years older than me trading and being successful. This is slightly off-topic, but if any of you have any interest Fortune had a great article in the most recent magazine about Goldman Sachs GSAMP mess and how they actually made money with it.

I won't be home when it's on, gotta love DVR

Here are two charts, one with no annotations and one with simple support and resistance lines. The red line is the 8 EMA which is usually too fast for my taste in the index markets (I use it for other markets). I typically pay more attention the blue line, which is the 21 EMA. You can see how it's providing support for the last 3 candles then todays "hammer". I drew in the line that would show the current support used to be resistance, which is also something to take note of. As far as my trading plan goes, I would be more willing to buy a hammer at support especially if there is more than one area to support (the line I drew and the 21 EMA)

Alright this setup has always gotten me a little confused, the candle makes the shape of a hammer directly after - lets call it a spinning bottom. The direction of the market for the week has been down except for yesterday where we saw some volatility. Today it looks like we might end up with a hammer candle. Would you play this as a hammer since it's at the bottom of the short term trend? Or a hanging man because the previous price action was up?

Well I made a blog for those interested. I sent it off to family members hence why I had to put everything in "idiot terms". If I didn't they would just look at the charts and get a blank face lol http://jamesgsxfuturestrades.wordpress.com/

I like Obama, I think he's very smart and I would agree that he keeps it real. Clinton is very smart too, but she's too political for my taste. In my opinion, everything she does in public is to boost her political picture. I know some people may see that completely different, but that's just how I see her and I don't really like that.