james_gsx

I would have to agree with Brownsfan, when you are day trading then most of it is range bound in some way. There are various ways to trade this but most people don't even have a clue how to do it. I would agree that you should know who trades your market, when they are trading, and basically figure out what the big institutions. But the fact is most people can't even afford the draw down those major institutions can. Why trade like a bank when you have a $100,000 account? If I ran a large fund I would understand and my trading plan would be different. In fact I would definitely want to use quants for part of my business. But if my style of trading consists of trades lasting less than two minutes then I don't really care about what the major banks are doing. I'm more concerned with "reading the tape" and knowing the path of least resistance. If the banks come in and make a big move, chances are I will see it and go along for the ride. I don't care if it's Brownsfan with his money making the move or Goldman Sachs, if the trade fits my plan then I better be in it regardless. Also most smaller traders don't have the knowledge, time, or capital to do quant trading to an extent any bank or fund does (let alone even understand the math behind it). I'll let them write their quants and I'll stick to my 1ES point trades. Let's look at Friday for example, I would call this a choppy day. We did close up (70 pts I think?) but the simple fact is no one has a trading plan that says buy at the open and sell at the close and actually makes money. If you traded a simple moving average crossover you would have probably 3 good trades and the rest you would have been stopped out. But if you have a plan set up for range bound trading, as you can see in the chart, you would have walked away with a lot more money while the guy trying to find the trend is losing his shirt. So the questions still stick around, how do you trade the range? Do you buy at support? Well how do you know it's even going to hold, and what is a realistic target? What happens if that support or resistance line breaks, do we switch to a trending setup? Even then, how do we know it's a trend and not a false breakout? Sorry smwinc if it seemed like I was discounting what you were saying, I wasn't. I'm just saying for a small trader like myself with a very small time frame I think knowing how to trade rangebound vs trend is very important. When I swing trade, that's completely different.

I think a lot of people misunderstood the whole idea. Maybe I didn't clarify it well enough, I won't just print out charts and hand it to that since that is clearly retarded and a waste of time for me. There is considerably more to it than just annotated charts (I didn't include everything because this thread isn't about me, it's about printing and making a presentation :crap:). But whatever, theres no point in explaining it anymore so just let this thread die. Thanks.

I agree Blowfish. JC did a great job introducing me to futures and while I like a lot of his systems I don't use them. I used them when I first started out but with more screen time I was able to come up with my own. I do like the way he presents market internals and how he uses them. I think a lot of people buy his book explaining it to be complex, but like you said it has to do with the mind of the trader. I believe that's his edge in trading, he can have a simple setup but with the right attitude he'll make more money than someone with a complex system running high with emotion.

What a day for trend trading! Hopefully some of you got a little Thanksgiving bonus Heres what I see, the YM broke pretty strong support and I will be waiting for it to test the August lows. I think when these lows are tested it could setup a great day trade to the long side. 200 points isn't really a big deal, we could see it Monday. The ES is pretty much the same thing... The NQ is interesting, there has been some strong support in this area. Just like at the recent highs though, I wouldn't be surprised to see this support fail. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving.

Come up with a system that fits your personality for trend and choppy markets then focus on looking for setups to both sides. Personally I like the idea of other people panicking so I tend to look for more short setups. Really it just comes down to screen time, the more you get the more you'll see setups from both sides. Or when the market is trending down you can just turn your monitor upside down :o

Mister Ed, a lot of people don't like to hold positions when they go out for a holiday. Let's say they leave tomorrow and go on vacation, they won't want the risk of an open position in this unstable market. So a lot of people will sell or cover their shorts and go into cash before they leave. Also a lot of guys will see the market is at support, and since they plan on taking a few days off they will cover and be happy with the trade. Personally I would have covered the short at the close Friday and taken this entire week off. This is great time to go over your trading and analyze yourself so you're fresh and have new goals to tackle come next week. That's my opinion at least. I also wouldn't be surprised if we get a little Santa Clause rally going into Christmas

Has anyone considered using VBCs and seeing how they correlate with the daily chart? I was looking at the 59049vbc chart on the YM (I use multiples of 3 for my VBCs thats how I came up with that number). Overall I found that at first it seems like more noise, but you are able to ride the 2-3 day trends for considerably longer compared to the daily chart. Sometimes on the daily chart your confirmation would be a wide body, and if you missed a good entry then you basically miss the big move. Whereas the shorter VBCs the entry signal is formed much earlier. I also found that price tends to move with my moving averages better than the daily. Of course it all comes down to preference and I certainly like the look of the daily more, but I think scaling down to a large VBC could be useful for entries/exits on a swing play. I attached some charts that aren't annotated, but so you could see the difference.

Good thread Tin. Lately I have been hearing a lot about TRLG, when I looked at the chart I see a rising window that is so far holding it's support. We obviously had a spinning top against resistance, but now it looks like a spinning "bottom" forming at a possible support level, but I'm not 100% sure if that's what you would call it. 1 - Let's assume it is a spinning bottom, since it is on support would this be a good area to go long if you got a confirmation? 2 - If it's not a spinning bottom, how should I perceive this candle? Thanks Tin, and whoever else chimes in.

Over the last 8 months that I have been trading I have gone through several clear stages of development. Most of you know what they are, so theres no purpose in laying them out here again. But I have noticed one thing that I do over and over, and I finally came to realize that it's been hurting me all along - to an extent. I have been reading Mark Douglas Trading in the Zone and I most of what he says is spot on, at least with me. I have realized the single biggest problem I have is my attitude, and this extends beyond trading. At work if I don't have a clear state of mind and an attitude to be confident and successful then I will have a bad day. The same is with the markets, if I start the morning confident, and I feel successful and I am able to take FULL responsibility of my trades then I have a wonderful day. My problem is these days are few and far between, most of the time my head feels cloudy and the second I start trading with real capital fear takes over and I don't properly perceive the information the market presents. At the end of the day when I do my daily analysis obviously everything is fine and as most of you know I do a good job analyzing the markets. In the past when this happened I assumed it was because I didn't know enough about the markets so I went on a search for the holy grail. Not necessarily one indicator, but I felt I needed to learn how to analyze the markets better. Well it finally hit me, I can analyze the market just fine. Am I the best? Absolutely not, but I am better than most and I am good enough to make a fair amount of money on a consistent basis. I don't need advice on how to take the plunge into trading full time, or even how to create a system. I now realize that I don't need to know what the market will do next. I know I can be a good trader and I know my trades won't work every single time. My problem is simply accepting that without emotion. I have a few questions for every one who has gone through this. 1 - What did you do that helped you create a consistent attitude of confidence, success, and ultimately being able to accept full responsibility of your trading. In essence, how were you able to accept the risk without any emotion? 2 - How silly did you feel after you figured it out :o I have a journal to take notes and I can identify when emotion is taking over. The only problem is I don't know how to eliminate that emotion aside from just walking away for the rest of the day. Avoiding a trade is a good way to avoid a loss, but I can't make any money that way. I feel as if I'm so close, yet so far away. Thanks for the help.

Hew brown, nice analysis. This whole thing played out perfect for me, all the e-minis found support and resistance where I thought they would, it was almost text book. Sorry I haven't been posting, there was a death in the family this week so I have been fairly busy with that. I think someone needs to finally try doing some of these swing trades and see how it affects the equity curve

I would go with the 360, but that's just because I prefer the games. I need to buy a 360 and stop using my friends, then we can all have a TL xbox live game.

Sorry Tin, just because I want to print off charts doesn't mean I am not concerned about the environment. I am not as far fetched as you are with protecting the environment but you would be pretty surprised. And unfortunately even if I never bought these charts, those same trees would still be cut down. There is simply no way around that. This has gone too far off topic. Thanks Brownsfan, the quartely idea is a good idea. The reason I want to start now is so I can track my progress and show them how I've grown as a trader. If anyone else has any feedback relating to Kinkos or other ideas how I could present this then I would greatly appreciate it.

I found some cool pictures and thought I would share. I spend a ton of time looking for pictures of these cars and it's rare for me to find any good ones. So when I do, I love to share them. I'm not into older cars, but the BMW E30 M3 and the Porsche 959 are two of my favorite cars. The 959 is a dream car whereas the M3 is something I could get someday (although they are very difficult to find). The car doesn't look like much, but it's a engineering marvel. Every time BMW releases a new chasis they get softer and aim more for soccer moms and stray away from the hard core drivers. This M3 to me represents true driving, hence why I love them so much. And yes, I would pick this car over any M3. I would trade my Mercedes in a heart beat for a car like this. For more pics, go here http://www.motoyen.com/media/Projekt-E30-M3 I hope you enjoy them like I do.

I don't want to come across as a dick, but the tree has already been cut down and turned into paper. All I will be doing is buying the paper from Kinko's, just like everyone else. My demand has already been factored in by the paper companies, so if I don't buy the paper someone else will. I won't give a fund manager all of my binders, but I would pick a sample of charts from over the years to show him how far I've come along and to show how I've mastered my work. Sometimes a professional presentation that shows I've put in a lot of hard work can go a long way, and it will help them remember me. I won't have an ivy league MBA, so I have to go the extra mile to make sure they remember my name. I don't want to work at Goldman Sachs or a hedge fund for the money. I want to work at those places because of the feeling of success that comes with it. I want to feel as if I'm at the top and all this hard work has paid off. And if I have to print off the charts on a regular basis to get there and accomplish my goals then so be it. Working at those places isn't a dream, it's a goal and we all have to do what it takes to reach those goals. Trust me, if technology changes and paper isn't needed then I will be all for it. I know I could make a CD or a DVD but you also have to remember how precious time is to these people. I know many VPs, Partners of major consulting firms, CEOs and I know that they have very little down time - let a lone the time to pop a cd into their computer. The precious time they do have (usually on an airplane) it's very easy for them to look through something on paper so they can take notes and jot stuff down. I learned this a few years ago when I was trying to get my business plan reviewed by my mentor. The only time he could spend with me was the little time on an airplane in between cities.

Has anyone had any experience lately with Kinkos? I currently print out all my charts and stuff them into a binder, but this current method tends to get a little sloppy. I was thinking about saving all of my charts onto my computer then printing them off at Kinkos once a month. Then I could have them put the charts in a fancy laminated binder. I took Brownsfan advice and I'm keeping all of my charts to bring to an interview someday and I thought this would look better than charts stuffed into a binder with random hole punches. So if any one has any experience or can recommend something else, please share. I'm willing to pay the costs

So I make my monthly car payments usually a week late since Nordstrom doesn't pay on a regular schedule like every other company (every other Friday, they do it on the 5th and the 20th, so if one of those days is a weekend you have to wait until Monday). Well my bank knows this so they are okay with me paying a week late which is cool with me. Anyways, they are late to the new world of the internet and don't offer their customers to pay online so I have to call them up. I don't like to send in checks for my own reasons. So when I get my paycheck I call them up and deal with their automated lady trying to talk to me. Then I typically wait 20 minutes and either get someone to talk to and pay my bill, or an answering machine telling me to leave a message and they will call back.... they never do. Sometimes this can take up to a week to make the stupid payment. I don't have time to sit on the phone for 20 minutes and I don't like calling multiple times in a day just to give away my money. Then they ask me why I'm late with my payment, to which I respond, "Every time I call I sit on hold for too long and I hang up. I don't want to pay the late charge either because if you had more people answering phones then I would have made the payment five days ago." They never like that response Although I am grateful their call centers are in the United States so I can understand what they are saying (no offense to anyone). I guess I should just set up a recurring payment system like I have with all my credit cards. Then I don't have to worry about it. The only thing that concerns me with that is the payment is so big if I don't sell enough during the pay period my account will overdraft. In other news, I really like the new Mercedes C class in white. And if any of you over in Europe have or know anyone with a BMW 320Si, please let them know that a 20 year old aspiring trader in Colorado would love to buy it from him. Thanks :o

I've noticed that these 150+ YM and 10+ ES swings are no longer a big deal. I remember when the Dow would shoot up 100 points and it would be all over the news. Now if it doesn't have two 100+ swings a week then it's easy to assume all the big dogs are on vacation in the Hamptons :o

Down, it's up against support with longer upper shadows and decreasing bodies. That's a sign that the current move (up) is losing steam.

Wow, what a day! I seriously considered buying ES around 1500 but since I got really sick over the weekend I knew my head wasn't clear and I didn't want to take the chance. Oh well, it happens. I know the markets haven't closed, but I want to ask a "what-if" question. On the ES we had a bullish candle on Friday with stronger volume. Today if we were to close right now we would get a hammer with lower volume. How should I go about analyzing that? Would I assume the pros were buying yesterday, then today was a test back to 1500 where buying increased again? Would I be correct in saying this is a bullish setup?

I used to be addicted to video games, now I play them once every 3 or 4 months. Every time I go to my friends dorm he is playing Halo 3 and yelling at everyone lol

LEH has a hammer too, I know it's not an index but the financial's are the center of attention right now so I think that would have some impact. It's at least worth taking notice.

I like it brownsfan, if you look at the DIA there is a nice hammer. I know I shouldn't be hunting for hammers, but it is what it is. Thanks for the lengthy input, it helps a lot!

Nick that's what I mean by getting a certain signal to go either direction. If I was bullish going into a specific day that wouldn't stop me from making short or long plays on a day-trade basis. I would also look for a candle on say the 15 minute chart that would tell me what direction the market might be heading. For example if I saw a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily, then a strong hammer or other bullish candle on the 15 I obviously wouldn't fight that. You are also right about the NQ, I wouldn't go long on that chart on a swing basis but if I got something to tell me to go long during the day I would and I would possibly hold it for a swing play. I would be more reluctant too though, because like I said the YM and ES don't look strong at all. It would pretty difficult for the YM to fall 150pts, the ES fall 13 pts, and the Nasdaq somehow go up.

I made a bunch of fake money with my DIA and SPY puts today :beer: YM closed right at support today, not surprising but definitely a bearish candle. There is one thing I wanted to bring up though since I have seen it a few times. Wednesday we got a bullish engulfing pattern but it closed right at resistance, which is why I was bearish going into today. Was that technically the right decision? By that I mean, did I get lucky or is that something I should look at more often. And what is stronger, a bearish candle closing at support or a bullish candle closing at resistance? Or should I just wait for confirmation on both if I want a less risky play? Sorry for the thousand questions :o The NQ continues to be my favorite index, it closed right at support which was prior resistance of it's small trading range. I think if the YM and ES continue to the downside that the NQ will easily follow and break that support level.

I see a three dimensional triangle, not a butterfly :shrug: On a serious note, what kind of technical targets are possible with a pattern like this?