james_gsx

Good analysis, thanks. One thing I have noticed about the 8 and 21 EMA (the blue and red) is that they are great in a trending market, but when we are range bound they tend to be slightly irellevent specifically the 8 (blue). About the volume, I'm not exactly looking for a volume spike. But I would rather see a gradual increase in volume leading to the breakout. This would tell me that there were more buyers prior to the breakout. A high volume spinning top at resistance would be bearish, but leading up to the resistance zone and a WRB through the resistance on strong volume would be bullish in the "longer term".

Natty gas took out those highs. I put up my next target level. Sort of disappointed that I sold my calls in CL, but there will be another opportunity.

I apologize for not being quite so active in here. These injuries have really taken me out more than expected. I know, it seems like it would be nothing to sit in front of a computer with a messed up leg and foot, but it really takes a toll when I have to be on my feet all day. With that aside, let's talk about the ES. Some interesting price action this week, well not really. Of course the double hammers proved to be accurate. But that was then and this is now - real time. On the daily we closed above the 100 EMA. Two immediate things stick out like a sore thumb. 1 - Every newbie in sight has been screaming we closed above the 100 EMA. So I went ahead and circled all those fake outs. 2 - Look at that long wick at 1400, shows some sellers came in. There is also a huge lack of volume that I would personally want to see for a breakout of such a big level. But that's just me. I could be looking at this all the wrong way. My bearish bias could be taking hold of me and I could be missing something here, but I don't think so. IF we close above 1400, then we would have a double bottom and could see 1550. I think that breakout would be a huge win for the bulls. As of right now on the daily, the better risk/reward trade would be to short at 1400. Weekly shows a similar story. Resistance at 1400 and lower volume than I would like for a potential breakout. You should also notice the 100 EMA acted as resistance on the weekly. Just by looking at these charts, some bulls might be set up for a minor heart break. But if that resistance level breaks with strong volume, then I will obviously become much more bullish.

There aren't very many pools near me, but I would be up for it. My injury is getting better. My left foot hurts like hell since it has to compensate for my limp. The bone around my knee cap hurts as well since I walk and my knee pushes inward. But I am taking 800mg of ibuprofen with every meal and resting a lot. I have a brace too and it seems to be helping. I'm hoping I will be ready to try a run by early next week. Tomorrow I will probably go for a nice walk on a trail I found.

This guy is such an ass :o The Rangers are my #2 team behind the Avs and I wasn't sure if I should be embarrassed by this or if I should laugh. It is by far the most effective goalie screen I've seen, and the whole thing is made that much sweeter when he scores the power play goal.

It surely wasn't the best looking candle. But now, the market is back down - as usual A few things I didn't point out about the "hammer". It wasn't really a great risk/reward seeing as how there are a few moving averages just in front of it, and the risk would have been too great.

hmmm..... Too bad this isn't the close of the day

You bring up a very good point, and it might be worth waiting for the pullback. From what I've seen with the energy markets that happens quite frequently, and the initial breakout is usually very volatile - and would most likely result in getting a bad entry. If I wait for the pullback it result in a more favorable risk/reward.

The way the candles show, we should see a pullback to the trend line for the current ascending triangle. I would not buy anything until a close above resistance, obviously. We have not got that yet, so I sit on my hands waiting for the breakout. If the breakout never happens then it never happens, but if it does I will be ready. The bullishness is based on the weekly chart that goes back to early 2006, so it is a longer term play. The trade will not fire off until a successful close above resistance with strong volume (to show real money behind the move). The biggest reason I believe the breakout could occur and we could see a substantial move in price is due to the volume on the weekly. If one were to look back at previous attempts at our current resistance they would notice a lack of volume, it's the exact opposite here.

This is actually quite simple, but worded in a somewhat confusing manner. I believe the author means don't buy just in front of resistance for a breakout - instead wait for the breakout then a pullback to the new support (old resistance) and buy that. Here is a picture. Hope it helps.

Natty gas looks very bullish to me on the weekly. Once this resistance is broken I think it will explode to the upside. The volume accumulation is a bullish sign. I just need a way to play this move, since I don't know of any ETF's that underly NG. I could always figure out how to do a strategy on the options underlying NG I guess. Anyways here are the other energy markets. I think we will see a breakout very soon in all three.

It really depends I guess. I've really only had to pay a few times that my car was in. I've even had them carry the cost of a $535 maintenance fee. But for the most part it seems everything goes in $500 intervals :o

Nothing. I was just responding to something Blowfish had said about Nison being a trader.

3 parts to this. 1 - newbie traders (read my old posts and threads to see proof of this) put too much emphasis into the actual pattern. This is very true, and why a lot of people fail with it. Just as I'm sure there is a very similar reason why people fail using MP or VSA. 2 - While the actual "pattern" is not all that important (try to bear with me as this is difficult to explain) but the pattern in correlation to previous price action (such as trend, support and resistance, moving averages) is important. You aren't hunting for hammers or spinning tops, but looking where supply and demand come into play. Just like SMW stated in a previous post. 3 - I doubt Nison trades too. But I could be wrong, he does way too much advertising for my like. If you are ever interested in Candles, Nison has some great books. But from the little bit that I know about you, Gregory Morris's book Candlestick Charting Explained might be better suited if you are ever interested. He goes a lot further than to explain each pattern and what they mean. I'm not going to say VSA does or doesn't work. Obviously it works for a good amount of people as it has lasted a long time - the same is true for candlesticks, MP, and various other trading analysis. For some VSA will come across as complete nonsense and backwards - for others it's that one thing that clicks and helps them make complete sense of the market. An interesting study would be to see the different types of personalities that use various techniques. I am glad there are VSA vs Candlestick posts on this forum as it adds validity to both methods. It's when the immaturity steps into play when it becomes nonsense and I am as much apart of this as most. Time to go watch hockey. p.s - The Red Wings suck.

Exactly it just comes down to your plan. If you can only trade one contract you may take a more conservative approach to lock in the profits - maybe not. You could also scale out depending on various factors. Candles don't provide price targets or anything like that, which is another reason why some don't like it. But if you use an oscillator, support/resistance, whatever then you can probably make it work.

LOL! I love it.

Blowfish you bring up some great points. There were many ways to trade this setup and it all really comes down to your plan. As noted earlier, I took the first spinning top and exited right after the opening bell due to the 15 min chart. But it really comes down to your own plan. But the candles DID tell us that price was being rejected at resistance. I won't lie, this was one of those awkward trading moments. No one really knew what was coming next. We stuck to our charts that said down, and eventually we got that move. Just goes to show that you don't need to know what will happen next, but if you stick to your plan and use probabilities to your advantage you will come out on top. In this case, we came out on top.

I agree Mister Ed. Then the mods can go through and clean up the nonsense of whether or not VSA works (and all the other off topic posts that go with it). It would be a big task for the mods, but it would be well worth it in the long run.

We all know trading examples RARELY come up in "text book" fashion. The name of a candle doesn't matter at all. I would love to hear your argument against that. A candle is a very simple idea to understand - simply price action painted different then a typical bar. That's all it is. Now you tell me how the name really matters? As many of your own VSA guys have stated in the past - it's not about each individual bar or candle. You look for exhaustion of the trend or confirmation and make your trades based on that. If you make a trade based off a single candle then you're going to lose because you aren't looking at the big picture. I would also be willing to be the same is true for VSA. Thanks, and have a wonderful weekend.

I have done my best to stay out of this argument Brownsfan is simply trying to agitate you guys and he brings up several good points. But if I must, here you go. click and.. click Would you like some more? I can probably even pull up one or two where I was wrong if you'd like. Different trading for different people. The CSA guys think VSA is too complicated so we don't use it. Nothing personal. No need to respond by bashing candlesticks.

Sounds good. There are a few hills around here that I know off the top of my head that I can bike on. The only problem is the amount of traffic, so I might be better off using one of the many trails around here. I have a doctors appointment later this afternoon. I couldn't walk this morning and my knees are in constant pain, so my mom did what a mother does. I'm just glad I get all day to rest today. I have extra long ligaments in my legs, so I am more prone to injury. But I'm not really sure if this has anything to do with that?

Don't get me started on weather Four days ago it was 70, the next day it snowed. Then it went back to 70 the next day, so what did it do yesterday? It snowed like 4 inches! By the end of the day all the snow was melted and was cloudy! This fund is going to be run on the beach in the Cayman islands.

Looks like a descending triangle is forming on the 30min chart. The $109 region is holding well. The daily looks bearish if we break that support level, yet the 30 min looks like we could get a nice bounce if we close above $110. Time will tell of course.

Looks like that short is working out well. If the low of the spinning top from yesterday was broken you could think of a possible short to the 8 EMA.

More money is being made in the CL thread ES day trading, energy markets swing trading, ES swing trading, I can smell the hedge fund money now :o:cool: