james_gsx

The reality is your situation is no different than most retail traders. There are very few traders who can consistently make money. Unless you have a real edge as a retail trader, your chances are, unfortunately, very slim. You almost need a strong intellectual team and good technology behind you to be successful. If you are trading YM, ES, or NQ - you may consider another market that isn't already flooded. You may have better luck finding an edge. Good luck.

I agree. The time when you will use any real difficult math is if you are building a unique system that requires the math. Otherwise, functions such as moving averages, oscillators, or whatever are already done for you (you could pull the code easily, assuming you even want to go that route). And to be honest, if you are using a system that utilizes a ton of math, you are likely severely lagging on the technology front - comparatively speaking of course.

You are all over the place pushing this thing. This is a book review section, not a self-promotion section. You've been pushing this system for years. Trading Creations : eminis futures trading courses, trading eminis, e mini trading. https://www.tradestation.com/Discussions/Topic.aspx?Topic_ID=77498&Page=1 Forums - Professional Day Trading Give it a rest. If someone really cares about this book on this site they will buy it.

Most of those guys also have groups of very intelligent people and a huge technological advantage. But if the OP ever wanted to get into stuff like this, he may want to brush up on his math Trading and Market Microstructure authors/titles recent submissions Essentially, if the OP wants to learn math then he should, if he doesn't, well then don't.

What exactly do you want to do? If you just want to stare at a screen and play find a shape then none really at all except for basic probability. Depending on how much more complicated you make it then you will need to know more math. For what 95% of the people I see here do, all you really need are basic skills. However there are many people with very strong math skills who will likely take your money everyday. Just an FYI. The best traders seem to have a strong intuition for the market, and some are able to utilize math to create better/more efficient systems.

That's kind of a loaded question. Many institutions have their own models to "value" a currency. But this should help. As for which data to use, that's up to you. You will have to pay for BBoP unless you figure it out on your own, but BoP should be free. Also, check the US Treasury website for additional material. Data Catalog | Data

Your algorithm probably isn't working because you have no trading experience. Good luck trying to compete on your own with no knowledge. If you observe successful traders, they all have a strong intuition with the markets they trade. Most of the ideas around here don't work for most, and many struggle to use the same concepts and fail miserably. The reason is consistent, they simply don't have the same intuition when it comes to trading. That just takes time. Find the successful traders around here and read their posts, think critically about what they are saying and question everything. Find a market, devote your life to it, and study math and programming if you want to build a few decent algorithms. If you're not willing to do that, then save your money. Just my 2 cents.

Someone beat you to it. Or are you just trying to pass their work off as your own? http://xa.yimg.com/kq/groups/17324418/945690453/name/RBS%2BMoon%2BPhase.pdf

Out of curiosity, did you trade options when the vix was at 45, or 80 for that matter? If I assume you already have a sound understanding of options, then I think you may already know where I'm going with this. If not, then I suggest you look into how volatility can play a significant role in the pricing of options. The simple strategy to sell more puts because there is a "ceiling on volatility" could quickly erode your capital base.

I think I know what you're saying, and I agree to an extent. But to add to what Brownsfan said, it's not really find a shape - even on daily data. In reality, the more you watch charts and candles, bars, etc, you really just get a feel for price movement. Therefore, the doji or single bar is meaningless in and of itself (and like you said, closes seem to be random), but understanding how price reacts around certain levels is very beneficial to some. A better idea, might be to look at what happens around the dojis a program finds. Are there certain patterns, not just technical. Is there increased buying/selling pressure in the tick, etc. There are many ways to analyze a market, some more data intensive than others, but none of it is really wrong or right.

Congrats James and Jashanno! I was always very skeptical of having a family, but after visiting my sister and her 3 month old son I can say that someday in my future it might not be such a bad idea. Big congrats to both of you.

The Henk.. sounds like you've been watching some Top Gear? Jon - that Aston Martin is beautiful. I'd love to have a collection of old Mercedes one day. And Maxima, couldn't agree more. The E class is a solid car and great reputation. I see a W124 everyday at work and it almost looks brand new. They are built like a tank too.

Just planned out a 717 mile trip my friend and I will drive this summer through the mountains of Colorado. If you want a clue, just google Route 550 in Colorado - unbelievable scenery. In fact, throughout this summer I plan to drive some of the best roads in Colorado and post pics, video, and reviews on a website I will design. Should be fun.

The new 911 Turbo is faster than a ZR1... 2010 Chevrolet Corvette ZR1 vs. 2010 Porsche 911 Turbo - Comparison Tests Nissan GTWhat?

You are probably right about that. The best way to make money with cars is to have a license to buy at auctions. I have a friend who does this and makes a healthy living. He bought 2008 S550 with very low mileage for around $40k. I don't remember the last time he owned a car he couldn't immediately sell for a decent profit.

You are quite right, and I don't blame him. His knowledge of math and physics is far superior to mine. I was also with 10 other students, so I would expect him to dumb it down for us I remember you talking about bayesian probability a long time ago, and I must admit that's what sparked my interest. Nice to see you back Nate, but I will be fairly surprised to see you stick around for long. But don't be afraid to share some of your knowledge.

Speaking of cars... I just got stuck in Boulder for 4 hours in the snow because my car is RWD. I think it's time to move onto something AWD... Not sure what I like though that is affordable lol

I love it too, but the sub-frame issues scare me. I had a friend driving through Dallas in his E46 and hit a pot hole - ruined the sub-frame. You can pick up a 996 Carrera for cheap now, which would probably be my route.

It comes from experience, I always felt TS was terrible. Maybe it was my connection, but I was never too happy with it. If you'd like, I'm sure I can find some data to back it up. Also, from various posts I've read on this site I don't seem to be the only one with this opinion.

What a great way to start a post, by dragging non-sense from another thread. This isn't ET, maybe you got confused As to your question, I think it depends on what you want to do. CQG is definitely one of the best, and an old member (not sure if he still posts, I forgot his name) used CQG at his firm and loved it. As far as quality goes, I think you already know the answer to that, you won't get the same level feed from Zen-Fire as you would TS or E-Signal. As far as data input goes, I'm not really sure what you mean by that. As far as big shops that do a lot of HFT and provide liquidity - they will obviously get their data directly from the CME since it all comes down to speed at that point. I don't think the CME would limit that information. You can check out this link and it might be of some help if by "input" you mean something completely different. Information for Distributors And then theres this... CME E-quotes Hope it helps.

I don't want to come across as defending anyone, but I do have a legitimate question. How would you give a real time example on a forum for a trade that could take 10 seconds? I have personally given plenty of real time examples, winners and losers. But if I were to show others my high frequency trading setup, would I be doubted for not posting real time examples? Even if those trades took less than one second?

I know very well what I don't know, but I am definitely not the smartest person in the room ... except maybe some of my classes - specifically my economics class :crap: What a waste of time. I'm going off topic again, sorry about that.

Well... not yet I had an interesting discussion last night with a physicist, and we talked about the natural balance in the universe. Even concepts such as chaos are starting to find some balance and explanation through mathematics. If we are finding that, along with advances in neuroscience and balance within chaos, I would even go as far to say that the emotions behind a crowd can be explained mathematically. The trick here is getting it into a formula, and I'm not so sure that's possible. But with the vast amount of program trading dominating market volume, is "emotion" really a thing of the past? Sure there is a human behind it, but how often are their emotions interfering with the models?

There are some great dedicated quant forums out there, but good luck getting them to share any strategies with you I would merely share what I'm learning and communicate new ideas with forum members. I almost feel like I would be giving back in my own way, as I have learned a lot from the members here.

I would be in agreement with you on most of this. A simple look over the last 20 years would show many quants disregarded the fact markets are made up of humans and markets change in such a way their models do not account for. Maybe the individual quant didn't disregard any of that, but after many people started implementing the model the basic idea was lost. Unfortunately, there is so much money being traded within these programs that now when we have a blowup it gets magnified to extremes. On a more personal note, I fully agree that markets describe the activity and behavior of a crowd. In fact, I would venture as far to guess that a major flaw in risk management is the idea of human behavior - how exactly do we capture that mathematically? With new discoveries in theoretical neuroscience, we are probably getting closer to that answer. But then if that ever catches on, it is bound to blow up as well. As I continue to explore this field I would be happy to share my thoughts on the board, and those who wish to participate should and those who disagree with the whole idea, well that's fine too. I agree with Blowfish that many of the new members who are here to learn might be misguided and confused reading all of this. I can't say how many times that happened to me when I was starting out. I would get a groove going, only to read something more complicated then be confused the entire weekend. I really didn't care about any of this "quant" stuff until I started pursuing mathematics academically, then I realized how it was all tied in with trading. Disclaimer: I am not quant at a major fund, just another individual interested in the mathematics behind these complex models. So everything I've said, may be completely wrong - I don't think it all is but I figured I should throw it out there.