humbled

Mickeybh, What if I am looking to swing trade? I would like to hold for larger gains. Humbled

Hello Thales, Not trading right now. I have put in time watching time and sales and line on close charts on 1 minute but I can't say I have made any real progress. I notice some reactions that show direction for a few ticks but other than the potential for a scalp (which I am not focused on), I do not have a sense of force from the tape at this time. Another member here has supplied me a ton of good information on an alternative method which I have been watching as well. Thanks so much for your concern. Humbled

I want to thank all of the people who have sent me private messages of assistance. I appreciate the support as I hit a difficult trading hurdle. I am working to do something that most fail at and so I knew in my heart of hearts that I would have to work and struggle to achieve it. My past trading would take accounts up then down , back and forth. In the process, some accounts did gain and then others would drawdown and show me larger losses. In the end this did not payoff and I had no idea where my balance would be next. Overall, I lost money. My goal is to produce a consistent income of 10k plus per month. One that would cover my overhead of my family. I did not need to achieve this as a get rich quick scheme, I was willing to give years and years but I knew I was asking for a lot when only using 100k or less in capital. I figured I could build. Start with 1 or 2 contracts and add one more for every 10k in gains. Over time I imagined that even 5 ES contracts could provide this with consistency. Less than 10 points per week would allow for this target to be reached. I am willing to use multiple instruments. I knew I was not fast enough to be a scalper of 1 point or 2 at a time. I also found it hard to focus that intensively for long periods of time. It stressed me out. So I was looking to do this with intraday swings. I am even willing to leave a position overnight. After all of the recent pressure, I am going back to the basics of this plan. It was working to some degree of success. I will built on it and find a way to add the missing layers. Nothing that was said fell on deaf ears.I am taking it all in finding a path from here. For those that said I always needed to find my setup on my own and built it myself, understand one core belief I had was to find someone getting the results you want and learn from them. Hence the reason I started with Thales and this thread. I have private reasons why I must succeed that most cannot fathom how important they are to me. All for my family. Maybe that pressure has not helped me any so I will always need to focus some of my attention on the psychological aspects of this. I am sure that has held me back, but when I find consistency, I feel the confidence will build to clear some of this up. Thank you to all of those that share to help! Humbled

This is fantastic sound advice. Thank you very much! Humbled

DbPhoenix, I am sorry I confused you using the word "edge'. All I meant to express was that once my mentor said the comment Other traders started to give advice that agreed. Even the last post you listed, These comments and so many others are a clear indication that I am not on the right track right now. I did not brush these off and use selective hearing. Once Thales mentioned that I needed to have this skill, others validated it on the thread, I stopped to fix the issue. In so many words I was told, no consistency will last if I can't feel and read the pull of supply and demand. Humbled

Seeker, You are right and I was willing to stay the course, but I was told by many I trust here including my mentor that I am missing the edge. The real edge. As the student that could not be ignored and set this issue in motion. I did not pick and choose when to trust Thales or DB or others. I followed verbatim and they lead me to this spot. If they see a problem in me I had to stop and find a way to resolve it because I don't want to fail only to be back here later asking for a lifeline. That was part of the issue here. Do you listen only up to a certain point and then put on the blinders? For that reason I have stopped and I am looking to figure out how I will tackle this. Humbled

MightyMouse, Consistency to me is making money week over week. Not every day. Let me add a few more factors. I would not consider it consistent if the losing week was larger than an average winning weeks. This might mean one slip up and the losses exceed the gains. I have had that issue before. It also means some level of confidence built. Being stopped out 5 to 9+ times in a row OFTEN does not seem to match that description in my mind. Maybe I am nuts but that is how I feel. If these conditions are met then I could see adding an extra cars as I grow the account. I can't imagine with the helter-skelter trading I have done, that I can add to and grow size. I thought I was in the right direction to reach this but was stopped in my tracks and told I was missing the boat on what is needed as an edge. Humbled

Here is my private review form from this last weekend. I will get you better stats. I need to load the data in an application to output this information. Weekend Trading Review Week ending 7/5/13 Week Gain / Loss Commission Spent Week of 6/10/13 $-287.06 60.30 1 car Week of 6/17/13 $1369.16 68.34 a few 2 car trades that I stopped doing Week of 6/24/13 $267.34 132.66 1 car Week of 7/5/13 $430 192.00 1 car How did I do this week? I came out positive but feel resistance that the method lacked some clarity at key levels. I am mechanical and just reacting as I am told but confidence is lacking because I am unclear once I reach a level. I am afraid of the 2b pattern because I feel like any slight pierce of resistance can be viewed as one and then I am run over 1 bar or 2 bars later. How is my plan developing? I am following directions well. I look forward to the new update Thales gave to me today. The change is now a full planning before the market open to reduce stress. I feel it is progress but I am getting input that suggests this is not enough. Have I stuck to my plan or did I deviate? I have stuck to the plan the best I can tell from the rules I have been taught. I am not mentioning it in my thread but I often do a reverse or two each day trying to figure out which direction to take. How was this week compared to last week? This week was much harder as I started the week on Monday -5 and struggling at every level to decide the direction. How many points gained or lost this week? +8.5 What % of my gain is fees? 45% What will I do to move forward into the next week? What steps can I take? I am working to define the day before it starts. This should lower the stress. How is my progress thus far? (Scale of -10 to +10) +1 Above the zero line. I feel I am above the zero but I experienced plenty of frustration in the heat of the decisions. The lack of risk reward causes me to fear the system to some degree. I look forward to improving this along with a few added layers to improve my trading. What I don’t understand is this shift to saying that this setup is not good enough without being able to sense supply and demand. I can gauge retracements using the 50% level DB has shared. I can use demand and supply lines. I can review swing points. I can talk myself though what is happening. This along with risk reward of 3 to 1 or better should make this plan profitable? WHY is this not good enough? Can’t I add just another layer like volume to confirm an exhaustive turn or a change of supply and demand? WHAT AM I MISSING? Thales acts like I have hit a brick wall because beyond all of the teachings there is a layer of supply and demand feel that I don’t have. Humbled P.S. The results were not bad at all it was the indication that all of this is still not enough of an edge without an understanding of supply and demand. I took that to heart and pushed Thales too much for info and he needed to move on. I fought the idea of learning to read the tape. I am not fighting any more. I am just deciding how to approach this so I do more than create a setup that is nullified. Something that I have been warned about by many that is critical beyond the mechanical approach.... understanding and reading supply and demand.

Gekko, I did not want anything for free. I busted my ass and failed at consistency and take offense to your comment. I made money and lost money for years. I did not get consistent like I wanted . I did not look for anything to be given to me. My error could have been pushing to be the 1% that makes it consistent as income. I finally came to TL to try another path. I admit to begging for some assistance to find a clue from someone already getting the results I wanted. Maybe someone like Thales could help me find the areas I was missing. I did EVERYTHING I was told exactly by my mentor Thales but I lacked a sense that a 9 year old could grasp. I am so confused I still don't see what supply and demand clues or direction someone of that age can see but I can't. I am sure it is the pressure of this moment. WHY ?? I have no idea but thanks for the kick while while I sit here on the ground. Maybe I am a human being and really hurt here. Honestly I am in hell and don't yet know the way out. Thanks for adding to pain. Humbled

Optiontimer, I have to thank you for your assistance here. I am starting day 2 this morning. I am not trading. Even though I came out positive in this adventure, I truly had to struggle at each reaction point weighing all of the options on what to do next. None of it came as second nature. Not once did I have confidence which I feel is one of the largest missing pieces. It truly is funny. I have read 30+ books and even after reading those consistent traders, I never came out with a summary like this thread has. Other than Enigamtics comments, not one person has really talked about what really made Oniel, Trader Vic, Darvas or others which I felt could be boiled down to a define entry criteria with risk reward to a large degree. As Vic Sperando said he took trades with a minimum of 3:1 and many were 8:1 or better. He was wrong often. I always thought that if I built a system with some help and then reacted with risk reward, I could be consistent and profitable. I thought the edge was a larger winner and a smaller losers along with a sound consistent plan. This thread lead me in a different path which suggest that consistency comes from feeling or being able to sense the flow of supply and demand. Now I have to decide how to proceed and I am not sure what I will do next.I can query others but I will have to decide how I will approach the market from a "Day 2" perspective. Humbled

Optiontimer, You make some very good points. Understand I am very confused on what is my best course of action right now. I have thanked posts that gave me framework ideas how to approach the issue. The broad strokes of just saying "order flow" was a little much for me to digest. I understand the concept. It has been suggested that I need to develop a feel or sense of the flow of the market I can show you the trend on a chart but feeling or being able to measure a reversal from a pause is a crap-shoot for me. If I stack up all the reasons to take a trade I can do that, but asking me if my feel says we are moving up next ,I might be able to answer from that exact spot but it seems to be nullified 30 seconds later. I am trying to wrap my head around all of this so I make the best decisions moving forward. I admit I am not sure what is best. Maybe it is clear to some but as you can imagine I don't want to make the wrong choice. I can read higher lows and higher highs. I can see breakouts and breakout failures. I see supply and demand in the charts but it is done using mechanical means. I have no sense of what will happen next. If price hits an area of resistance and a signal forms I just know that if the reasons align I can take that trade. I can't feel higher odds on this trade compared to the last one. This process was working fine in this thread until the comments started to focus on tape reading. I can tell you I was hesitant at first because it was not being explained. I am willing to do whatever it takes but I am trying to figure out where to step next as the minefield seems to show in every direction. I don't want to be a story of failure so imagine I am taking in everything I can to save myself. I want this more than anything so imagine I am poking in every direction looking for a path to move forward. Humbled PS. Put yourself in my shoes. I don't want to be a statistic.

Steve46, This post added some clarity to this discussion. Thank you for sharing. I have just added it to my trading log along with many things I have learned from this heated discussion. Humbled

Db, You have made it more than clear that the only answer that exists is to just watch Time and Sales. I believe at this moment that is the only value I can extract from your advice other than packing it in. I am reviewing the T&S option now. Humbled

Yes Enigmatics has shared concrete information with me that I am reviewing right now. It is people like Enigmatics and yourself that have given me options to grow from. There are differences but I am reviewing those now. Thanks again, Humbled

MadSpeculator, Your posts are excellent and received as a voice of reason in an area where people have very strong opinions. I am the student so I am listening and appreciate your input. I chose this. This is all on me. I could have studied my Peter Brandt book and looked to build consistency on weekly and monthly charts but I wanted to learn to extract consistent profits on a weekly basis. I have actually used your post as an outline of how I will replay and work to learn this. Thank you so much for being here and sharing. Humbled

Here is an image of the window I created for this. Do you gain the same feeling from watching the DOM as price moves up and down the ladder or only via the scrolling green and red price and volume size? Humbled

DbPhoenix, For someone who has done this before and did not see it, is there a way to validate if I do find something. Maybe if I start a thread of occurrences that I see, could that be discussed? Humbled

I want to say thank you to everyone who helped here. I started this thread to get help from Thales after reading about the training of his daughter starting at age 9. I made an assumption that the method he taught her would be fairly simple to follow and would allow me to copy that consistency after years of complex methods and inconsistent results. Unfortunately, I did not consider that Thales taught his daughter (9 to 12yrs old) tape reading. I never envisioned a child sitting and and studying price at that level of depth. I did not think it was done with "feel" or with a "sense" of what price will do. I had assumed it was a reaction to a pattern or behavior to look for. As many will see I followed the instructions in this thread regardless of preference. I would have been happy to build a consistent method that did not require micro precision on one minute charts. I will consider the option Thales has laid out for me as I have no other option but success. I do question if everyone who becomes consistent can see behind the curtain. I wish all of you good luck Humbled PS: Once again thank you to Thales for showing me all he could as I pressed very hard for clarity that I guess just can't be explained. The evasive nature of this one area of tape reading got in the way.

It is not possible to have given any more effort than I gave so all I can do is consider my next options. Thank you Thales for your time. Humbled

Enigmatics, Please continue to post your volume reviews on the SPY as I still have volume on watch. Humbled

My exit was based on a demand line break and a lower high but I am not sure on this management. humbled

TradeRunner, I did stop trading for weeks to observe price and did replays. That was step #1&2 I never extracted any "feel" but i did notice patterns like the 2b, double bottom. H&S and such. I did write several plans to trade the right shoulder after a spike down and the 2b's as I was tried to buy the area being held as support and the spike downs would chop me to death. Even with those adjustments I still came out with so many losses I admit I felt exhausted from the pain and moved to longer time frames. I think the frustration got me. Maybe I did not do enough time with it. I can tell you I never felt anything other than watching the reactions and praying once I entered they did not spike outside the range to take me out. Humbled

Here are my levels for tomorrow.

This is what I could see today on a LineOnClose Chart. No magical experiences Just price moving to test levels. Chop and more chop. Humbled