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fxpaulm
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Everything posted by fxpaulm
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Looking at the Aud/Usd, the SL may get broken which would set up a long trade at the trough of the ret. This trade may happen late tonight or early tomorrow morning. Of course, it could also turn into nothing and the SL hold with a further drop in price.
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Fine, I'll post here, but for the record it doesn't look like other people posting in that thread are following the rules either. I will try to stay on script and explain what I'm looking at and how I plan to trade it.
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I guess were even then because I've no idea what you are talking about. I was under the impression that it was SLA and AMT, but who cares. If you wanted it to be just SLA, why bother talking about AMT, Hinges, 50%, means. Not sure what your issue is, but I'm not into the drama.
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Let's see, price has continually rejected 96.00, I saw the box of price trying to find equilibrium, one could add another DL that was broken, the latest rejection of 96 would bring the hinge into focus. So looking strictly at SLA one should already be short, I'm waiting for the resolution of the hinge though because I've found that many times they try to fake traders out before the actual move starts. I've attached an updated chart. "Setups": There are no "setups" in Wyckoff, at least insofar as we commonly use the term. He did not say that if price does this, you buy and if price does that, you short. Rather he stressed that the trader must be sensitive to imbalances in buying pressure and selling pressure, particular at levels where these imbalances might most likely result in profit opportunities, e.g., reversals. Therefore, the "trading signal" is not, for example, a "double bottom" or a "higher low" or a "climax bottom"; the trading signal is provided by the imbalances between buying pressure and selling pressure, and if one does not view price as a continuous movement and is not sensitive to these continuous shifts in balance/imbalance, he will not understand what it is that he's supposed to do.
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I'm not sure because you do mention boxes and that has played a role in my decision process and why I have the red line. It also looks like a hinge which was discussed, I was under the impression that one was to put all of that together when trading price? Not just isolate on one line, but the totality of price and its movement.
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You mean all this time I thought we were talking about the middle to late March and you are talking about the middle of April?:crap: I somewhat explained my rational for that when I talked about the horizontal zone and how that still factors into my decision. At this moment price has broken the DL, so I would wait and then short the first ret.
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Sure, why not, A is the long due to SL being broken, B is the DL being broken, 1 is high, 2 is LL which is confirmed at 3 so the TL from 1 - 2 seems to be valid, then you could add the lower channel line. Couple that with the total picture of price not even approaching the lows of the beginning of March and demand seems to be in charge.
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Green, I see what you are saying, but if you look at the totality of the chart up to that point one could see that price was in nice channel, did not break low of beginning of March, broke a nice TL that everyone could see and putting that all together, it seems like the obvious thing.
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I saw the chart, and the long would already have been exited. Why could you not use the LH once it was confirmed? You even have something like it in the pdf where you are talking about channels.
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What are you talking about, you could draw that red line the minute a LL was made on the 13th, or if you jump the gun even earlier, and then price did not break it till the 19th.
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I see what your saying and I'm guilty of drawing the lines to fast, meaning I'm assuming that it is a LH without it yet being confirmed. Maybe I'm still seeing that horizontal zone to be of importance. Price stayed there for awhile and when it tried to rise the selling pressure was too much. I'm still giving that some weight in my decision and that is why I put my top red line where I put it, even though it has not confirmed a LH yet with a LL. That is my baggage I suppose.
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For example, while i see the lines you draw, I wait for the obvious to make it easy on me. So once I saw the LH I put in the red line and waited for the break, then the retrace. Are you saying that this is completely wrong and has no relation to the SLA?
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I figured that was what you were talking about, but I'm trying to make this as easy on me as a I can, so I stay away from drawing those lines that don't have a clear swing. Does that make sense? That was part of my question at the very beginning, what do you do with those moves that just shoot off into one direction. My solution was to just stay away from them for the time being, till I really mastered the obvious ones. i know that this means I will miss trades, but I'm ok with that. So I believe that I'm following the spirit of the pdf, even though, I may not be following the letter of the pdf. Am I still way off base or in the ballpark somewhere?
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"price points necessary to draw them did not exist at the time they were drawn." Not sure, but I only put the lines on once I was able to with either a HH/HL/LH/LL. The red SL was drwan the minute that I saw the LH and same for the dark green line just it was a HL. The congestion was evident back on the 3rd and those two lines have been there since. How are the lines drawn incorrectly? Granted you had some lines in the pdf snug up to price, but some you based of swings which is what I'm trying to focus on. As for strategy I thought I said that, once price breaks either the dark green or the red line I would trade in that direction after a ret. What am I missing?
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Not sure I understand, those lines on the A/J are real time, As I type this price is struggling to stay above the dark green DL. The plan is to wait for a break, either up or down, but probably down and then short the trough of the ret. Not sure if this helps, I cleaned up the chart and removed all of the old lines and just have the ones I think are part of the next trade. The light green channel is not important, but I forgot to remove it. Hopefully I'm doing this in RT, if not could you tell me how I'm not???
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The Aud/Jpy is also worth to monitor and is close to breaking a DL. Interesting to see the consolidation and price trying to move out, but was selling pressure was to great. Now it tried again, but couldn't even approach recent high. Patience is key and waiting for clear break and retrace should yield some good pips.
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Niko, I see what you mean about the retrace, but only issue is that it hadn't broken a DL. One thing that is on my radar is the Eur/Jpy, not sure which way it will go, but am leaning down. Will wait for a break and retrace.
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That was not something that I saw, I believe that the best entry came from the last green line break and then the slight retrace to 103.38. That would still lead to over a 100 pip profit. I will have to look deeper to see what you saw with the LSH, but I agree that the SLA worked great, really should not be too surprised though.
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That was not something that I saw, I believe that the best entry came from the last green line break and then the slight retrace to 103.38. That would still lead to over a 100 pip profit. I will have to look deeper to see what you saw with the LSH, but I agree that the SLA worked great, really should not be too surprised though.
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I've been in the fx market for +15 years and enjoyed most of it. I strongly believe that these concepts are applicable to any market, including forex. Now I know that most everyone here does not trade it, but the same concepts apply regardless of the instrument being traded or the timeframe one chooses to trade. That being said, if I have questions it is about the concept, not a particular market. The Law of Supply and Demand is very much alive in the forex market and I love the simplicity of the SLA and AMT. Thanks for the information and I look forward to learning more and honing my price reading skills.
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I've been in the fx market for +15 years and enjoyed most of it. I strongly believe that these concepts are applicable to any market, including forex. Now I know that most everyone here does not trade it, but the same concepts apply regardless of the instrument being traded or the timeframe one chooses to trade. That being said, if I have questions it is about the concept, not a particular market. The Law of Supply and Demand is very much alive in the forex market and I love the simplicity of the SLA and AMT. Thanks for the information and I look forward to learning more and honing my price reading skills.
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That helps, I lost sight of the HH/HL or LH/LL. Most of those lines were done in RT, I was just having trouble with that move, but I see it now. The last green line would be the valid signal to exit the long. Don't see any way that one could of seen the precipitous drop, but I'm still taking it all in.
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That helps, I lost sight of the HH/HL or LH/LL. Most of those lines were done in RT, I was just having trouble with that move, but I see it now. The last green line would be the valid signal to exit the long. Don't see any way that one could of seen the precipitous drop, but I'm still taking it all in.
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I have a question about the SLA and parabolic moves. I've attached a chart and would like to know if anyone sees something that I missed. Also, would it be wise to try and snug a line on that move up from 3/27 starting around 101.2 to a little over 104. I've drawn how it would look with a black dotted line.
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I have a question about the SLA and parabolic moves. I've attached a chart and would like to know if anyone sees something that I missed. Also, would it be wise to try and snug a line on that move up from 3/27 starting around 101.2 to a little over 104. I've drawn how it would look with a black dotted line.