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habi
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Everything posted by habi
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The volume peak was one minute after the close, when Google news were released. Wednesday we had a strong up-move too, but it looks different comparing the volume. The volume peak on Wednesday was in the high area, yesterday we went up on the first bar with the highest volume. Thats maybe the reason, why we can stay up for now.
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Hi millard It seems, that you don't read all posts in this thread. Go back to 1075 and you will see, that at least some people have an other opignion of volume outside of the main session. I'm not really familiar with FX, so I'm feel not predestinated to make some comments about this chart, but since you intervend, I will try to give you an idea, what I see on it. First, I have seen a GBPUSD-chart (thanks gassa) in the Wyckoff thread, which goes back to 4/8. From there I know, that an upmove is in front of Sledges chart. I see then bars with lower shadows and volume diminishes to the end of the downmove. It looks more like a retracement and a chance for another upmove, but it's easy to say in hindsight. The next important bar was the fisrst up bar, which colsed above the night range followed by an test bar, thats all we needed for this up move. A downtrendline was broken to the upside and (not visible on this chart), a trading range 1.965-1.985. In my opinion we have now strenght in the background. In those circumstances, I would now looking for a long trade. The upthurst has the high not in new high ground and the next bar is balancing the strenghts. VSA is not a system with fix rules and as you see, there is room for different interpretations.
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I'm just rereading some parts of MTM and found an interesting statement: The market is an on-going story, unfolding bar by bar. The art of reading the market is to take an overall view, not to concentrate on individual bars. For example, once a market has finished distributing, the ‘smart money’ will want to trap you into thinking that the market is going up. So, near the end of a distribution phase you may, but not always, see either an up-thrust (see later) or low volume up-bars. Both of these observations mean little on their own. However, because there is weakness in the background, these signs now become very significant signs of weakness, and the perfect place to take a short position. This means, we need first signs of weakness/strenght and then focus more on single bars like up-thursts, no demands ...
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Yes, I see this consolidations and we have one on the bottom 02/03 and on the top 00 too. Most important thing I would point out was that we needed double the time to go up than down. In my understanding, the downmove was stronger/faster than the upmove. And now, after only three (or five in the second attempt) months we arrived already in the range from where we went up more than one year. So, at least on the first move down, the speed is increasing again. I was searching for reasons, if we will break to the up- or downside from the range since January, but I can't favor one side. I was then looking on this monthly chart and came to the conclusion, that it don't look nice at this time. To enhance this impression, we should be able to break to the upside.
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Since you are talking about waves, it could be interesting, what happend since 2000. I compared the downmove from the high to the low in October 02 with the upwave to October 07. This upmove last nearly two times longer than the preceding downmove. Volatility increased since the last high and in this view it's doubtable, if the 1250 lows forms a long term bottom. If I'm correct in Db's interpretation of support and resistance, the we have resistance at 1555 and support at aroung 800. To mitigate the worse scenario, we need now a rally up.
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Hi dandxg Yes, I think it's important, that you mention this points. There are a lot of things we have to watch carefully with all the long traded instruments. I have no experience with FX products, so I can just give some thoughts about the emini contracts. Volume is clearly higher during the regular session, i.e. the most activity is during tihs time. I compare volume outside the regular session just with volume during this time, but I look more on price behavior. If you have a look at Eiger's posts, the premarket price action gives you often some usefull hints. In eSignal, I have a problem with houly charts. If I take a time template, which starts at 09:30, then it ends at 10:30. So I created a template with start time 09:00 and I'm aware, that the first 30 minutes are outside of the regular session and therefore, the volume would likly be lower. A 30 minute chart resolves this problem. Another problem are trendlines. If you draw trendlines in a regular session template, then you miss a lot of price action. If you include the whole session, you have a lot of price action with low volume. This is why I take more attention to horizontal S/R areas, but I use trendlines anyway.
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Hi Eiger At the point where we are now, I see more reaction to the high area 1/31, 3/2 than some kind of absorption. We have longer upper shadows in the daly chart instead of rejections from the downside, and now 5 closes within few points. Just above 1400 is another congestion area with more resistance potential. The small channel in the 60min chart is now broken to the downside, I like such patterns more against the main trend. It will be interesting, if 1360 will hold again. Instead of a daly chart I use a 1425min chart with a full session time template, since eSignal has a one day delay in the daly fututes volume charts. Therefore the January lows looks a bit different to a normal daly chart.
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Db, thanks for your posts, this gives me a much better understanding what you mean, I highliy appreciate this information. :) And yes Bearbull, I will keep your comments im my brain
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Thanks Db for the elaborate explanation. I have to reread it tomorrow once again. What I'm most surprised about is your statement: "Thereafter, volume is largely irrelevant" I see often, that when high volume comes in, at least a retracement occur. Today e.g., short after the highest volume spikes in a 3 and 5 minute chart we saw the start of the largest move for the day. o.k., at this time we could not know, that it will be the highest volume for the day, but it was at least the highest volume since the "open". "the key is to be consistent" Yes Bearbull, I fully agree with your statement, I'm working on it.
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Db, Bearbull I think, we are all interested in VSA as a whole. And since VSA is based on Wyckoff, we are interested in this theorie too. The point is not, that we are not interested in other versions how to read price/volume action, but it seems, that we are not able to follow exactly what you mean. Let's look at yesterday's price action. Price went down near 1360-support, then up to close the regular session gap and then down again on lower volume. As Db mentioned, this was the point to find an entry. Once you have taken the long position, you follow the price action. Is it possible to describe, what you are doing now? Do you follow the price action just in a 1 minute- or any other chart? What are your thoughts, when you see the higher volume between 1371 and 1375? Db said, that support was on 1360 and resistance 1380. Do you saw some weakness when we reached 1377.50 or was it just resistance from yesterdays high to close the position, assumed, that it was closed there? In my view, this trend was of good quality until the top and also the following downmove was not that worse. Please give us some examples, how you read the price action, there is no need to post them in realtime. Just, that we have a better understanding what you mean.
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Yes, I remember your post 733. It was just a little bit too early to go up, but all this down bars were on lower volume than the preceding upmove. So, you was on the right path. Now we are already in the area of the two February highs. Will be interesting what happens here. If it goes above this highs, it looks like a nice midterm bottom.
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Looks as we had a secondary test completed yesterday. After a retest of the January lows on March 17 we saw a relativ strong upmove on high volume. Last weeks downmove was on lower volume and narower spread candles. It seems that the next upmove started already after yesterdays test bar. In this case a test of the high from end February should be possible. It will be interesting, where we close today
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Hi James Whatever analysis you do, most important thing is the trend and probably the most difficult thing to identify it. Is there a trend and how strong is it? Have a look on the 15min chart. Since the top at ~1360 we are in a downtrend, but with overlapping waves, which means, the trend is not very strong. In surch circumstances candles work very well as turningpoints. Let's now look on the upmove in the middle in a five minute chart. The 'reversal candles' (inverted hammer, shooting star ...) didn't change the trend, they produced just a small retracement. As with all indicators, in different environments we have to apply them in a different way. Helpful in determinig the trend are the wide range body candles, in this case the long green upbars.
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In amendment to jj's comment: Your green support line was tested three times and then broken to the downside. The volume was not ultra high like in today's chart. Once the support line was broken to the downside it becomes resistance and this was confirmed by the low volume pullback. Look what happend after the last and highest volume spike. A more than 10 point reversal, although the volume in a 5min chart looks not very high.
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Hi Eiger Have a look to a one minute chart. The volume on key bar was more than 30'000. The candle formed a long lower shadow. The low was rejected twice before test 1. A second test occured at point 2 within this long shadow on even lower volume. As you said, this was all in the area of the previous breakout. The following uptrend was not really strong an in the 3 min chart it formed a rising wedge with some upper shadows and not confirmed by the TICK. I tought, that we will retest the lows again. The downmove was not really weak and on low volume and the lows not confirmed by the TICK. The next up candle confirmed the reversal to the upside. Today's up move was not very strong with a lot of overlapping waves, I would not be surprised if we would retest the breakout again.
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:thumbs up: EDIT by mister ed: Comments and questions for Db to his blog please, though I will let the thumbs up stay for now!
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Yes, I fully agree with your statement. Especially in larger bars its helpful to have a look, whats going on in this bar. I have seen several TG chart of the week and they recommended to view on different time frames. I have seen, that they explained someting e.g. in a 10min chart and then switched to a smaller time frame for a more detailed illustration. If one like to switch down to a 1min time frame or even smaller is imho not a question of VSA or not VSA. For a better overviev is use the higher time frames, to see more details I go down to a smaller one. It's also a question of the available screenspace. If I read your post, then I have the impression, that we are quite close on the same path, VSA and Wyckoff must have some commonalities.
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Already all the free available education recourses from TG was very helpfull for me. I think it's more, than just interpreting single bars. I get a much better understanding of volume and price action, then I had before, but I know, that I have to learn more. Where you see the main differences between Wyckoff and Williams? It seems, that there are several resources available based on Wyckoff. If I interpret some statements correct , then some people see e.g. SMI or TG as an ajusted Wyckoff version to todays market relations, but you and BB seems to have another view. Can you give me some educational resources (books, courses ...) which you think teach the original Wyckoff material?
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Yes, I was talking about bar L in your chart, but I have drawn the line from the 9:30 am bar. If I move the cursor over a bar, eSignal shows the open time, Metastock the closing time, thats where we have the difference. I thought, that we need a selling climax to the left to be a valid spring. At the open, we had much volume, but on up bars. J was just a small selling climax. Even so, bar J looks very significant with this volume spike, closing high and on support from the opening. Yes, M was a nice test and looks even better in a 3 min chart. habi
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Hi Eiger Just my opinion: The first bar was a strong up bar, closing on its high, followed by a weak bar on higher volume. If you have a look on a 1 minute chart, it looks not that bad. After the open, all green up bars close nearly their high. Weaknees came in on bar 1 with the highest volume since the open. The second down bar after 1 closed already in the middle, followed by a long up bar. Bar 2 then was on very high volume, but closing off of its low, followed by two lower volume down bars and an inverted hammer on increasing volume. I don't know, if you would find a tradable setup here, but it looks all stronger than in the 5 min chart imho. It's not the first time, that I see weakness in one time frame and strenght in another. A question to you. Was the 1:20 bar a spring? We had high volume at the open on up bars, it was not a selling climax in this case, but we had a huge gap down in the regular session.
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Hi Eiger Have a look to the link below, if you are interested in MTM: http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/34/vsa-recommended-resources-3424-3.html#post29891
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First of all I see, that we have different volume data in our charts on the two bars I would like to refer. After the strong down move, we see a wide spread down bar closing in the middle, followed by another wide spread up bar, closing in its high with ultra high volume. Strenght came in on very high volume. Again, some strenght came in whe prices went below the low after the open. Falling prices accompained with a rising TICK. Then rising volume on the a down bar closing off of it's low, followed by a hammer candle. In my opinion, the main activitiy was early in the morning and it worth to look back in this area.
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Hi Eiger (north face? :o) Interesting explanation as allways. I have a question about the spring. Why is the first test not a spring, but the second one is? I see in both cases a higher volume up bar closing near the high after the test, but the following price action is different. How do you define a spring?
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I just studied Tom Williams/TG and of course both VSA Threads. Since Williams and TG are based on Wykoff's theories, what are the main differences between Williams, Wykoff and SMI? What for resources do you recommend for Wykoff and SMI?
