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habi
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Everything posted by habi
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Thanks for your answer. I'm logged in and see all your other charts. Just the two in Post #4704 are not visible for me.
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Unfortunately, I can't see your charts in this post, just two red crosses. I like the Pitchfork-Tool too, but I have seen, that you use it sometimes a little different. It seems to me, that you focus very much on the median line. I have another question about MoM. I'm now reading the kindle version of Daltons book. He talks always about a "Nontrend Day" when it should be a Tredday in my opinion. For example: The thin elongated Nontrend Day Profile, shown in Figure 4-22, is a good example of a one time-frame market Is it just wrong in de Kindle version, or do I have an uncorrect view of the therm Nontrend day?
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Let me first look at a higher interval chart. It broke out from a trading range and as long as it stays above this range, you have a bullish background. Sept. 07 formed a sideward movement with very low volume for the whole day. The chance increased after the breakout, that all the supply below resistance was absorbed by the SM or how you like to call them. Bar 1 was on very high volume and closed in the upper part. VSA tells us, that markets don't like such volume spikes, weakness comes in. But what means weakness really ? As you see, bar two and the following shows no selling presure. Prices went up further, but halted soon above bar 1. A potential reversal pattern formed and yes, bar 3 can be a no demand bar. Next bar was down, but on low volume. If you look at all the next bars, they are all on low volume and in a narrow price range. Do you fell comfortable with a short position at this time? Some weakness came in after bar 1, but just for the short time, the main trend remains strong. Tom Willians talks about effort effort versus result in MTM (p 39). I this case, the effort was to the upside. Prices came down a little bit, volume decreased, thats what we like to see for a reversal. The result here was a small reversal. Be careful in strong trending markets with high volume spikes, the result is often just a temporary halt within the full move.
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[site update] New Site Design Launched!
habi replied to Soultrader's topic in Announcements and Support
Hi James Thanks also from my side for your great effort. Peter -
I don't see your problems with this 3 min chart, IMHO it provided even better informations at least until bar 6 than the 5 min chart. But first of all we have to consider, that both charts are created on exactly the same transactions. If we look back one day, then we see a strong upmove, followed by a smaler correction. The short time trend was up. My chart starts 30 min before the regular session (15:30 = 9:30 east). 1 Bar 1 tested the full time session low which was rejected. 2 Bar 2 went through last days close with less volume but closed nearly at the high. 3 Bar 3 with a lower shadow confirmed strenght. 4 The trend followed his way and pushed through last days high, some more volume was needed to go above resistance. 5 After a small consolidation prices went up higher with two bars on increased volume, both closed at their high. Nearly no signs of weaknes at this point. 6 Some selling came in at bar 6 on high volume but it was much lower on the next downbar. 7 It is dibatable if this bar is a test bar or not, but it rejected at least the low from the last small up move.
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But you cannot login to the TWS during the weekend for your weekly analysis
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Good question, I thougt exatly the same when I saw this chart. I think, that I wouldn't go short on the no demand bar in box A for the follwing reason. I see some strenght in the background, with two high volume bars closing off of their lows. Bar 1 and 2 formed a potential reversal pattern. I don't like to go short within this range, though it came out as a succesfull trade. Volume on bar 2 was very low compared with bar 1, this could be a hint, that the reversal is not that strong. Pattern B give a much better entry as described by VJ. If you scroll back one day, then pattern B was in a stronger support area as A from a support/resistance standpoint. @ shreem I find it important too to look on charts with different time intervals. But you have to be careful, if you compare volume from the main session with activity outside this time range. I look more for support/resistance and trend strenght in the higher interval charts and go down to lower intervals to check the activity. A 1h bar for ES or NQ that start at 9:00 and end 10:00 contain 30 min of premarket- and 30 min of the regular session volume. Thats why I prefer a 30 min chart. May be a little different for forex futures.
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ok, can be, that I missed the point or interpreted it the wrong way, sorry
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Close to close is not enough, high an low are necessary too, otherwise you can't see any spred. Personally I prefer OHLC. The main VSA principle is analysing volume and the spred for a choosen time interval. But Tom Williams also talks about support an resistance in MTM. Is it part of VSA or not? I don't care about, I use those informations, from whichsoever I think they are helpful for me. I don't want to limit my analysis, just to be a pure VSA-ler, which in IMHO not exist. It's nothing academic with bars less than daly bars. In my last post I tried to show, that a chart looks different depending on the choosen time interval. If you mean, that the flow not stops after a bar closes in an intraday interval, then I think we all now it. A bar close or end for a defined time interval, but it does not mean, that the flow don't continue. A doji in a 5 min chart can be a engulfing two bar pattern in a 1 minute chart. It's most important, that we see what's behind the price movement and the accompanied volume. Not that easy, but that is what we trie to do. When I look on the current bar how it unfold, then it does not mean, that I forgot all the previous bars. VSA analysis is limited to time based charts, because it looks to the spread and volume for a choosen time interval. But it's not forbidden to look on volume charts, if you think that you get some helpful informations from there.
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It would be interesting for me too, from which data provider I could receive more updates. With eSignal I have 10 updates per minute for TICK and just 2 per minute for TICKQ.
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Hi Tasuki I think, you go to far to define roules for test bars. Let's think about what we need for a succesful test. First of all we have to search for an area, that will be tested later. I prefer some kind of reversal on higher volume, the test should the be on lower volume. I give you an example from a trade I made last week, in this case it's not just analysis in hindsight and I will show you the same price movement in three different time intervals. 5min: After an initial sharp downmove prices started to move slightly downwards. Bar 1 is a hammer on high volume, after that not much to see from a test. Bar 2 could be a test bar, but I can't see what it should test. It looks more like a reversal bar, the test followed on bar 3 on lower volume. 3min: We see allready a little bit better, that the volume increased sharply on the reversal bar 1, the following bar made its low within the range of bar 1 on lower volume. A short term test? The situation for 2 and 3 looks similar than in the 5 min chart. 1min: We see, that more volume came in at the two bar reversal at 1. Prices came then down three times in the area of the reversal pattern, it looks like we had three test bars on lower volume. It looks different depending which time interval we choose. Therefore it's not necessary to define exactly, how a test bar should look like. The only thing we need is that prices go down again in the area that should be testet preferably on lower volume and then reverse from there. This price movement can occur in one ore more bars for the choosen bar interval. My entry was on the first bar after the two bar reversal at 1603.75, I moved my stop up to 1605.50 and later to 1608 and was stoped out with bar A. It was looking good until A, prices came slowly down on lower volume.
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Yes, I agree. Such high volume bars within a range are very hard to interpret and I can't find some more information in a 1 minute chart. The reversal with bar 2 and the following formed at least a support area, but the difference in volume for those two bars are extremy high and not much helpful. A possible entry could be at aroung 10:20 (your time) against the high volume reversal after 10. It would be interesting, why and when you entered at 11.19 If you look on a daly chart, then you are in the area of a high volume reversal from May 5,6, which closed the gap from last November. It's not surprising, that we have some problems to go up further here.
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Hi I don't trade Forex, therefore my comments are all derived from hindsight analysis. First of all, you don't provided enough data on the left side to judge the background. As you see in Hal's chart, the key candle apeared slightly above an important support area and becomes therefore more significance. Bar A and the following (I call it A1) formes a sharp downmove. After A1 you see 6 bars within a narrow range, I see it as some kind of accumulation. Volume before D increased and was higher on D, but prices reversed, all the selling was absorbed at this time. IMHO a good place to try a trade with a good RR-Ratio. If you imagine bar D and the bars before and after D as one bar, you become an even stronger reversalbar, but your risk is higher, when you enter at this time. It's up to you, how much confirmation you need to enter a trade.
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Interesting video from Todd Krueger Newsletter - Week 1 - TradersCode.com
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Yes, you are correct, I wouldn't start a new thread, I just pressed the quote button. This post can be moved to the thread where the question was asked, then you can delete this one.
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Traders Code – Todd Krueger – Online Trading Education – Online Stock Trading Software – Day Trading Software– Forex Trading Software – Stock Market - Investing market timing, timing the market, stock trading software, forex trading software, trading, commodities trading education, futures, stock market, technical analysis, reading stock charts, day trading, online trading education, stock market education, Hope, it's what you are looking for.
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Predicting Breakouts - Accumulation/Distribution
habi replied to UrmaBlume's topic in Technical Analysis
Since 4 days, the ES is consolidating in a range. Does your indicator works for this period too? What is it telling us about the breakout? -
Tasuki Interesting discussion, let give me some comments too. First of all, Sebastian made an important statement: You need to look at the unfolding story and not get bogged down in 1 or 2 bars. Attachments 10 and 3 min charts: Let’s first have a look about one degree higher. The Shakeout (Jan 20) occurred at the end of the regular trading session, at this time we have always some volume spikes. At point A, we see a tree bar reversal pattern and you mentioned already, that strength comes in. If this could be a potential bottom, then we would expect that this area will be tested later. Bar A in the 10 min chart: it’s a wide range body bar with high volume, closing a little bit above the low. If we would know, what really happened within this bar, we need to analyze it in a smaller timeframe. We see in the 3 min chart, that most activity was in the two bars at A, with a small body. Even we have seen this activity in the last minutes, the fact that it occurred in a small rang signals strength. For the next day, we were looking for a test in the bottom range from Jan. 20. The sharp drop was not confidential, but we saw a nice reversal pattern in the 10 minute chart, followed by a test at C. The same price action at B in the 3 min chart shows increased volume for the last four down bars. As we easily see now in hindsight, most selling pressure was taken out in this down move. Prices moved then up with lower volume, but the volume to point C was even lower and with the following up bar we had a successful test for the reversal at B. The test on the higher degree was confirmed with the up move at F when prices rose above the opening high. The move up from point B to D looks not very strong to me. I think, it was not really easy to anticipate the whole move for the day in real-time. Price movement at E and F signaled that the least resistance was to the upside. I learned that the so called “smart money” buys on down moves and sell into up moves. If they have taken most of their positions during the move down to A, they would like to see, how much selling is present in this area. The remaining selling was removed in the move to B and again tested at C. After this test prices could move higher with lower effort, it just need some more demand than supply.
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Hi Eiger Yes, I now, that the Dow don't move exactly the same way like the SPX/ES, but mostly the main direction is the same. In this case, the Dow was a little bit weaker then the SPX. If you look at last weeks candles in the daly chart, then it's hard to find some differences. It appears to me that you all seem to have a view, or opinion, this can be dangerous as you get sucked in to your belief and that is how the herd get slaughtered, don't be one of them. Look at Sebastians statement in post 1276: The SP emini daily chart does look weak, but the Dow cash does appear to have the potential to rally, there was a shake out on Friday on the intraday chart so I do expect Monday to open higher This is a view or opinion too. You need to have an opinion/view. If you say the market is strong or weak, or it has some potential to rally/fall, then you have allready a view or opinion about the market condition. Since may 5 (in the dow possibly earlier) the Dow and SPX turned bearish and we have to find out, how long this is valid. If we see some strengt at one point then we have to change our view.
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Hi Eiger I was referring to your post 1224, I had this chart with the wedge in my head. But I see now, that it was this exercise explaining action/reaction. I fully agree with your analysis, I had similar ideas too. I was most surprised about Sebastians statement (post 1276): "The SP emini daily chart does look weak, but the Dow cash does appear to have the potential to rally..." In my opinion, if the Dow had some potential to rally, then the ES should have about the same potential too.
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Hi Sebastian There are different ways to plot a trend channel in the ES chart and another solution is a wedge, which is brocken to the downside as already presented by Eiger. I have most problems to understand your comment about the Dow cash. I agree, that there is some weaknes in the ES chart, daly and weekly. But the Dow looks even worse then the ES, outperformance comes from the NQ. If the Dow has some rally potential, then the ES should have the same too. I can't see any signs, that the Dow will be stronger the next days than the ES.
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Thanks Db. I was interested, because you said, that only three out of nine hold above the breakout. I will have a look on them tomorrow. The link seems not to work correctly, its post 256 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/104/ym-es-and-djia-analysis-2275-6.html#post33679
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I know, that you posted somewhere the sector charts you track, but I couldn't find them. Are they similar to Amex Select Sector SPDR's from Stockcharts? Thanks http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=msummary&cmd=show,iday[Y]&disp=SXA
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o.k., millard seems to be the specialist on Forex, I'm not. I just know, that eSignal presents some kind of volume which dandxg explained in post 1016: Sledge consider getting the GTIS feed from Esignal. They aggregate tick volume from a number of broker dealers and ECN's. It's $100 per month I believe but would easily pay for itself if you trade enough. I have never traded forex, but ppl. that do, that I have chatted with, said it's pretty much the gold standard if you are going to trade forex. Now with that said Esignal has had some issues recently in fast moving markets with data lag on ES and CME in general so take that for what's it worth. Tradeguider used it in several charts of the week, I don't now, how reliable it really is. On most points, I have no problems with your post. I would mainly point to your statement: I've heard that these VSA folks maintain that you can adjudge the analysis on the spot instruments (as well as futures which utilize volume) regardsless of the time of day I'm aware, and I think other people using VSA too, that there is a different in interpreting volume during the main trading session and outside of this time. Second, I tried to interpret the chart with the "volume" bars underneath and that I have a different view than Sledge, but you can forget it. I will avoid further posts on Forex :crap:
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The volume peak was one minute after the close, when Google news were released. Wednesday we had a strong up-move too, but it looks different comparing the volume. The volume peak on Wednesday was in the high area, yesterday we went up on the first bar with the highest volume. Thats maybe the reason, why we can stay up for now.