tony1d

Abe, are you sure you're only paying 2.13 per contract/per side? sounds cheap. Make sure that includes exchange fees and i dont see how it can. check your statement. tony

Abe, when you enter a trade, you should have a profit target. You should also have a stop loss in place. the ratio between the two should be an expected overall profit. Ex. your profit target is 10 YM points, your stop loss is 5 YM points. that 2/1 is your ratio. If your stop is 10YM points thats a 1/1 ratio and with slippage and commissions, you will be out of money shortly if you get the point. You shouldn't be trading news, you should be flat into news and if you want to get in wait for the market reaction once the volatility settles down, they'll be plenty left on the move for you to profit from it. Try to keep things simple, not too many indicators, dont be led by whats going on on CNBC. Pay attention to price action and where the market is trying to go and how well its accomplishing it. Trading off a 55t chart is full of noise and you're scalping which is a very tough way to trade. I only use a 55t chart for timing my entrys along with the tape. I find i trade better when i keep things very simple and only trade a few setups depending on the type of market we're in. Sometimes i sit on my hands most of the day and thats ok too. I'll sit out most of August, its always been my toughest month. Good luck

hi Abe, i'll give you my thoughts and its just my opinion. I am not a fan of trading the YM premarket, just for me not enough liquidity which means very choppy price action. good you are trading 1 contract and learning while you do it. Much different from the SIm as the mental aspect comes into play. You need to learn a little about market profile. I saw we were opening below yesterdays value area which told me the other timeframe participants were in control and the market was out of balance. It was also options expiration day and friday in the middle of the summer so i expected big price swings and it might be a tough trading day. Following the open we pushed through S1 but i didnt plan to trade the first 1/2 hour as i wasnt believing the buying would last plus I expected sellers to show up around 10 am or so. Once i saw the rejection below s1 and internals weakening (huge divergence between the ADD and trin) i was looking for a short and after a retest of S1 we broke down about 50 YM points. I basically looked for shorts the rest of the morning until we broke through s3 and buyers came back in around 1 pm. I had a few good setups but always use price action and tape reading as a confirmation, if it was there i took the trade, if not i didn.t. I alternated between the YM and ES but found the ES better later in the day. Its good to listen to the news but you dont trade news, you trade market reaction to the news so dont over rationalize how you think the markets should react, that bias will lead to mistakes. Understand and use the cash market major indicators, ADD, TRIN, TICK, P/C ratio as they all have an effect and can direct you to how the market is behaving. As far as stops, i have my own thinking, i will not let a position go against me and sit on it hoping it reverses before hitting my stops. I trade high probability setups and momentum, if it stalls and reverses, i was wrong and will get out of the trade minus a few ticks. I dont care that letting it chop around may eventually lead to a winning trade. I just wait for the next one. My trading journal confirmed that for me this was a much better process than the latter. You made money today, good for you, thats the botom line. KEep at it..... tony

A little bit of Woodie and a little bit of Dr. Bob. I'll play a 50CCI (bars) cross of the 0 line and price crosses the 34 EMA at the same time. (countertrend so i dont take them all) and i'll play the 14CCI (white line) trend trade on the hook back representing a pullback from the 100 or -100 line across zero. Those are pretty high % trades. Of course if price is in the value area, i trade completely different. Value area rejections, 80% rule, or i wait for other timeframe players to enter the market on a breakout. I also have 2 other timeframe charts not listed. One is an 89T chart with regression channels and a M/A and a 15 minute chart for longer timeframe reference. I'm liking these range bars...

My first time posting a chart... hope it works... I played with 1 point ES range bars today and if you can see the chart, you'll notice we had a fairly "markets in balance" day. We moved out of value twice and it was rejected back in value areas (blue lines) Purple and red lines are pivot points. There were only a few opportunities today. You'll notice the range bars clearly show support and resistance. R1 (top red line) was a good short back into value and the 80% rule worked as the locals drove it down to the lower value area. That was the best pplay of the day, 8 points i'll take any time. I would have taken the breakout above value to R1 but miight have only gotten a point or so out of it. I'll continue to try range bars, i like the clearly defined patterns and you'll notice much less "noise" I am not a fan of trading in the value areas so i sit onmy hands a lot. I'll keep you posted..... Tony

Great posts, all make perfect sense. I trade the ES first, then the YM, er and nq in that order, basically whatever is moving the most. I like the ES as i can watch the tape and follow the pros slamming multi thousand contracts and ride along for a few ticks to an easy point. The YM spreads are friendlier and you can have wider stops plus you can look at the 30 individual stocks in the cash market and use that as a guide on another monitor. the ER is wild and if you trade tight stops you'll most often be taken out but when its running you can make a bundle fast. Not really an NQ fan but the NQ follows technicals really well, it loves to test the POC almost daily unless its a big trending day. Moves a bit too slow for me. Only gripe on the ES is that at $12.50 per tick, any slippage and your playing catch up. on 5 contracts you're -62.50 from the beginning. I use limit orders on 95% of ES trades to avoid that. Market only when its flying.

Walter, i found it. I was looking at quick reply vs post reply...thanks i'll figure it out...

my saved Sierra charts have a .cht extention. how can i upload those so they are viewable?

Now i know i must be an idiot, i see the second part of the process but i cant locate the first part, with the editor and rapidshare as to how to upload the chart.

Wave, i've never posted a chart as a thumbnail, can you point me to where i can read how to do that?

I am playing around with them right now. I have Sierra and its easy to change them around. so far i have been playing with 1.0 R on the ES, 1.0 on the Er and 10 R on the Ym. the charts are amazingly clean and you can clearly see Supp/Res lines and other patterns jump out at you, almost too clearly. I have backtested all three and the ES seemed to work the best but i didnt extensively go back, that will take a while. tomorrow i may open up a 1.0R es chart with my studies alongside my regular chart and SIm the range chart. I'll keep you posted on what i'm finding if you'd like. Tony

Absolutely, i use market profile and where we are relative to the value areas to get an indication of what type of day it may be. If the locals are just bouncing it up and down the value area and other timeframe is not participating, i just go to the beach. One good thing about living in Ft. Lauderdale.

Most everything you read is in some book. there are certainly enough of them. Trading is personal as traders are all different. For me liquidity has nothing to do with how much a market goes up or down in any day, it has to do with your ability to get in and out easily with minimum slippage. Choppy price action occurs when there are less contracts being traded and the locals can move prices easier to hit stops and shake out all the weak hands. thats why its not advisable to trade dead zone lunchtime. That 200 point move the other day was a perfect trading day for a swing and position trader but not so great for a daytrader who looks for pullbacks as entries, especially at S/R levels which got taken out all day long. I am sure some daytraders did fantastic but my trading plan was not conducive to that type of day and i stick to my plan. The market grinded higher all day and everytime sellers tried to come in, buyers immediately protected price and sellers finally gave up. I watched that tape all day long. Theres no right or wrong trading style. It whatever fits your personality. Yep, thats in a lot of books but its also to me true. I keep reading 90-95% of futures traders lose money. I have a hard time believing that but if its true, i have to also believe the pros bidding and offering thousands of contracts on the ES at certain times and the locals have the upper hand. I only trade when i have a sense of what they are trying to do and follow them. so far, i been blessed, its working, and it certainly took long enough to figure that out. I get something out of every post i read in this forum whether i heard or read it before. Its a reinforcement. Especially the market profile and tape reading threads. every little bit helps/....

Nothing wrong with booking profits. Letting a gain turn into a loss because it didnt hit your target is a bad thing psychologically for the next trade. I do that also but only on countertrend trades which i term hi-risk. What you might do a little differently is take a partial and let the rest run, ensure the partial gain and stop loss make the trade at least breakeven plus a tick or so to cover commissions. that way you've covered the trade and gave it more time to run. I am reading the book "Trading in the Zone" to help me with the mental aspects of trading. Very enlightening and highly recommended.

Abe, i use Infinity/Sierra charts and i like it. It has everything you need and at around 25 bucks per month, its a value, you can add Market Profile later on for another 15 bucks and you've got all you need. As far as trading, we all been there and the advice you're getting is very sound. Trading the YM in the summer is very tough. All the markets will have choppy price action due to less liquidity n the summer. I actually refuse to trade August at all. REviewing my tradelogs shows thats the month i tend to trade poorly and lose money. All that said, a trading plan is number 1, it is your bible and guidemap on what you'll do everyday, every trade. Setups, stops, targets, its the number 1 reason traders lose money, lack of or lack of following a plan. I am a very conservative trader and have a very strict trading plan. I read all the books also but my trading turned around when i learned (or still am) learning to read the tape (time and sales) and follow price action. If you are daytrading and dont do this you have a very small chance of being successful. I look at how price is acting as it approaches major S/R points. I always need to know whos in control (buyers or sellers) I always trend trade unless price action tells me a reversal is coming. I follow the big money, watching the tape all those 1-3 contracts are the fresh meat for the pros. I trade the ES and wait for the huge buyers or sellers coming into the market and upon seeing follow through i trade with them. I can almost always scalp 1/2 point on my first profit point, now my trade cannot lose due to my stop losses, my next target is 1 point where more comes off and my last is allowed to run until it hits a trailing stop or i take it out. Indicators are fine but they all lag and are based on price action so i only use them for reference. Moving averages lag but do tell me direction. I look at 3 timeframes and entry is timed off the price action and 55t chart. The reason i tell you this is not so you trade like i do, its simply to show you i have a plan and a method and it works for me. you need to have one that works for you. I also am very quick to get out of a trade that isnt working. I dont believe in holding onto a trade until it hits my stops. If momentum shifts immediately, i was wrong and get out. After reviewing my trading logs, i calculated if i always did this going back i would have had shallower losses. Trading is not market hours only, it requires, pre market planning and research and post market analysis of what you did right and wrong and as markets change so do your trading methods need to modify. there is nothing wrong with sitting it out, some days are not trading days, plain and simple. The faster you learn to recognize that, the better off you'll be. Good luck Abe and dont get discouraged but do stop using real money if you are and get with the basics and build from there 1 pattern / concept at a time. Keep it simple. tony

Reminds me of my worst trading nightmare. I once traded FOMC news, it was a bullish report and i immediately went long Market order of 2 YM contracts with a 15 pt stop, I got a horrible fill and on a quick retrace got stopped out. Once it reversed i went long market again, got a horrible fill and got stopped out again. Seeing weakness and a desire to get "revenge" i went short the market and you know the rest.... 3 trades in 5 minutes, 45 pt loss on 2 YM contacts or 450 dollars in 5 minutes. disgusted with myself, i stopped trading, walked away and of course came back right before the close to see the market base and run up 100 points into the close with barely any heat. I have not traded news since. I do trade market reaction to the news after the volatility settles down and i see a clear trend if it occurs, that works well. So, expensive lesson learned. By the way, i "punished" myself for breaking my trading plan and doing everything i knew not to do. I went back to the SIM, practiced my setups and didnt trade for about 9 trading days until i thought i was ready again. Started trading 1 contract until i knew my head was screwed on right. lesson learned...

Since your acct does not have the minimum 25k for pattern daytrading requirements you might look to the futures markets. that said, you need to get on a sim and learn, learn, learn and develop you own style of trading. The excellent information on this site will provide much guidance and tips on what works for other traders, you should experiment with different styles and see what makes you comfortable be it scalping, swing or longer term trading. As you didnt specify your account size, for me, i believe you should only trade 1 contract per 10k of your account, this is less than required but margin is a rope that you can hang yourself with so be very very conservative and you'll find you can eliminate some of the emotional baggage that trading lends itself to. The need to make money will result in judgement errors and you'll lose for sure. Rather, make up a trading plan and stick to it. Trade it over and over and right or wrong, follow the set ups and plan. If it is the right plan for you, you'll increase your odds of being successful. dont get overly hung up on all the indicators out there and dont waste your time looking for the "one setup", as markets change (and they do frequently) the "one setup" must change also, simple is better. Learn price action and tape reading. It'll take a while and years to learn it well but its imperative you learn whos in control of the markets at any point in time. If you decide to learn to trade the index futures markets, they all have their own personalities as you'll see from reading the posts on this forum. Experiment to see which you're the most comfortable with. I have played them all and for me, i like the YM first, followed by the ES, ER and NQ, but thats just my preference. Its a long road to success but along the way, you'll interact with some excellent traders, very bright dedicated people and get lots of ideas. Have fun, take your time, get on a SIM and keep posting your progress. We're all here to help. Tony

Hammer and shooting star but i really like long tailed candles at tops and bottoms, those seem to work best

I daytrade and use 133t charts for the YM mainly and 55t charts for entrys. Candle patterns become more unreliable as you go to shorter and shorter timeframes. i only enter trades when the 55t chart is printing a candle in the direction of my trade. I'll get my setups on the 133t and confirm using 13min and 60min charts to see whats going on in the longer term. I try to trade in the direction of the dominent trend based on the longer timeframes. Most of my losing trades are countertrend trades.

Information overload is a reality and you can get lost and confused with it. I found when i started trading it worked against me as i constantly looked to modify what i do based on this article or indicator. Everybody is selling the single method that will make you rich. I know, i bought some of those myself. The light finally went on when i learned to trade the psychology of the tape. I learned to use time and sales to tell me whats really going on. If i see a trend line break in a down market, i'll look at the prints and see all the 1 and 2 lots buying the TLB cause some book told them to. I'll look for for the big lots to come in and fade those and immediatley short myself. what happens is the price pulls back to the trendline, pierces it down, hits all those small lot buyers stops propelling it down more and the downtrend continues. Now that comes with experience and no lagging indicator will show you how to do that. Everything you need to know about whats really going on in the market is on the price chart and reflected in time and sales. Follow the money...... open 2 T&S windows, one showing all prints and one filtered showing >50 lots for the ES. Watch what happens when the 500-1000 lots hit the prints, jump on for the ride, usually good for at least 1 pt on the ES. good luck

When prices are outside the value areas, say above and remaining there, initiators are active and a new value area will be developing. I do not trade the developing value area but i will tend to look for long trades. On a rejection back into the value areas, i look for the 80% rule for prices to test the lower value area or at least test the POC. Market Profile is not an indicator tool like MACd etc. It gives you clues as to the where the market may be going, it gives you strong S/R areas and potential trading ranges when inside the V/A and clues you in to whether the trading day will be a trend or non trending day. It most importantly tells you whether the market is in or out of balance, the further price is away from the V/A the more out of balance the market is and other timeframe players are in control. Inside the V/A locals are in control and market is more in balance. On those days I'll look more to scalp in between the lower and upper V/A with POC as my taking of partial profits. Been working well for me as part of my trading plan.

No, i used the previous days YM value area and POC points from mypivots.com. Once prices fall back into the value area as the gap is filling, they oscillate all day long within the value area. Locals testing the high and low value areas looking for initiators. I used 13676 VH, 13656 and 13648 for POC and VL. tony

Thanks for the response and makes sense. Only trades i sometimes take is the breakout of the Value areas looking for initiators. I'll scalp 1/2 to a point on the ES then if there is a rejection i'll play the reverse looking for the 80% rule but will take whatever portion the market gives me. Its a fairly high % play when i do take it. some days you get more than 1 opportunity. Looking at Fridays YM 3 min chart, i plotted the VH, VL and POC from my pivots and it clearly shows several profitable opportunities, starting at 10:45am on a VH rejection prices pulled back to the POC then rose above VH and rejected at noon, faded to VL and swung from Val Low to Val high all the way into the close. It was almos a 30 point swing each time. after filling the opening gap lack of initiators kept prices in the Value areas all day. Very interesting to me. Any thoughts of this not as a trading system but as a potential methodology on non trending days?

I wanted to try the YM due to better spreads and wider daily range. More of an experiment. I am finding mixed results so far. As far as MP, on the ES, when prices are in the value area, the locals are in control and will scalp within the V/A and basically take prices from the upper to lower range. Now at about every 1/2 hour, especially in the morning, locals tend to take prices above or below the V/A looking for other timeframe players to initiate / either accept or reject the pricing. If prices are near the upper or lower value areas, i look for major moves at this time, if no takers, pricing pulls back into V/A and usually tests the opposite end V/A loking to see if there is play at the other end. This was identified to me as the 80% rule which is if pricing is above or below the V/A and pulls back in (rejected), 80% of the time it will test the opposite end of the V/A. Trending days will usually occur when prices are outside the V/A indicating initiators are participating and non trending days are when prices stay within the V/A keeping the locals in control. Other timeframe participants are not present every day. I wanted to understand if the YM works similarly, my guess is not really as it is not nearly as liquid but i am not sure. Thanks for the responses.

I recently moved off the ES to trade the YM and as a user of the Market Profile i found it very useful on the ES for adjusting my trading style depending on whether price was within or outside the value areas. I was wondering if any YM traders use the market profile and if they find it effective.