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traden4x
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Sorry there OAC, you made the comment about a "special sauce" if you will. I asked about it and you give this kind of response. FYI I did goto your link and looked around and guess what? 99.99% of it is typical price action. OK that is fine as that is what I trade. Was my question to your baited post a reason to be snotty about it? I thought maybe this forum would be a better place to work and trade through. I guess that still remains to be seen. Cheers, Carl
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Thanks waveslider, Yes I have noticed the "perfect storm" setups and agree with what I think is meant by the over/under shoot that you and brownsfan are mentioning. I am taking all of this into my research and applying almost "fuzzy" logic to it. In the end I actually hope to do that. The overlying fact however is how accurate these patterns are. Yes there are larger things to consider with other TF's and rules vary with the use of a pattern in a lower TF when say an opposite pattern exists in a higher TF. The next phase of my research will look at and include this into the mix. Cheers
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I have just come to be talking with Scott Carney in his trading room. I have seen several of my ideas confirmed by what he has done. I have done a lot in the past with elliott waves and the harmonics seem to be a much larger part of them then most know. Since seeing this I have come to see and believe that the harmonic patterns are much more predictive then EW's. Or at least give tighter SL and TP levels. I hope to be talking with you more. Cheers, Carl
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OAC, From some of what I have done already I have seen almost truer patterns with volume bars. However I can't find the time relationship as well. I'm not sure if I need to adjust something or not. I do know that every day in forex there are times of action and reaction just like clock work which means traders using time charts and not so much volume charts.
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I've been working on research for several of the patterns and looking at other patterns. I've been looking at time and price completion trying to evaluate the standard accepted values to see if there are better ratios that are seen more often. I hope to create a better indicator for identifying the patterns from all of this. I'm interested to hear your experiences. Cheers, Carl
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Here are the fibs after the 30 min signaled a reversal butterfly. I will often look to the lower TF's of the 5 or 1min and look for the TL break and enter in. Going against a major trend ai will look for smaller targets. Price first reversed to the 61.8 of yellow XA. 2nd move was point yellow C where the 88.6 of yellow AB was hit. Now as you know harmonic patterns and that we are in a lrger bullish butterfly, we now have a lower TF harmonic setting up for leg D of a bearhish pattern. We look to trade the higher TF pattern with the lower TF patterns price targets. In the 1st pic you see price went to 123.6 of yellow XA, 200.0 of yellow AB, 211.4 of yellow BC. This for D completion and a bearish harmonic signaling. In the 2nd pic you see price retracing to 38.2 of yellow CD. This is where the bears fail and price moves long. I now bagin to look for larger targets both from the 30min pattern legs and from this TF where 3 Drives or extension patterns come into play. Still even the reversal signal was a winner if you played the fibs correctly. In the 3rd pic we have a fe_CDE to 114.6. This level is past the fe-CDE 100.0 aka, ABCD and yellow CD 161.8 extension confluence. The final price level was from the 30min TF CD leg with 223.6 extension. Remember to watch the higher TF's for targets as that is where the larger signal is from. Carl
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The 15min chart shows a red ABC with the fib expansion (fe) applied to it. Here is a case where price retraces to 78.6 of red AB to C. We can look to trade short here with initial targets being the leg C of any of the harmonic patterns. Upon breaking the low of red B, I look for the fib extensions and expansion levels. You can see that after the red C in the yellow XA leg was a nice 12345 or 3 Drive pattern. Within this pattern blue d is at the 161.8 extension of the red AB leg and never closed below the fe-redABC 138.2. Final completion of 5th leg of yellow XA came at red fe-ABC 161.8. The yellow A is also where the 30 min bullish butterfly pattern is now in effect. Next post will comment on the turn and the following long.
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In this pic is a closer look at the reversal point from the 30min butterfly pattern. From this pattern and taking the CD leg, price extended to the 223.6 level. I have been testing where patterns succeed and fail and often I find this off of the CD leg fib values. The next pic will show the 15min and where a bearish harmonic pattern fails in the long position trade. This is at a fib level off of the CD leg. At that time of failure, I begin looking for 3 Drive patterns for price to extend to. Carl
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GU had a fabulous move short. In the weekly we have the bearish gartley and I also showed it in the daily. These patterns are very nice to find and trade when they are found in the corrective wave before the C wave or other impulse wave begins. From the weekly and daily you can review the fib levels that were met. Hopefully you find this interesting and would like to add your comments or observations. Carl
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Ready for another week? Many great harmonic patterns last week but didn't have much time to post them. I will try to show some as examples later. A call I did make on Thurs was EURUSD to go long. This is the basic setup. I added the monthly on EU and as you can see, much support @ the 50% retracement, ABCD 100 level from the prior corrective swing and the high from the previous impulsive move.