thetradingdoctor

Results Of A Comprehensive Study of Cannabis Use and Psychosis in Later Life August 1, 2007  A systematic review of longitudinal studies suggests there is sufficient new evidence that the use of cannabis (marijuana) increases the risk for later psychotic illness by roughly 40%. The study showed a trend towards an increased risk for depression in people who had used cannabis, but the evidence was not as strong. The article by Theresa H.M. Moore, MSc, from the University of Bristol in the United Kingdom, and colleagues is published in the July 28 issue of The Lancet. Study author Stanley Zammit, PhD, from Cardiff University in Wales, told Medscape that individuals who used cannabis on a weekly or daily basis had about a 2- to 3-fold increase in risk for psychotic outcomes, independent of transient intoxication or other confounding factors. He added, "We looked at the quality of the studies quite rigorously and feel the evidence is strong enough to warrant advising everyone, particularly young people, that the use of cannabis does potentially have some health risks, especially if they are using it on a regular basis." Cannabis is the most commonly used illegal substance in most countries, the authors write, adding that in the United Kingdom and New Zealand, about 1 in 5 young people report using cannabis weekly or having used it more than 100 times. Previous studies have suggested that cannabis use can produce transient, usually mild, psychotic and affective experiences, but whether it increases the incidence of mental health outcomes such as schizophrenia or depression is unclear. The group searched for population-based longitudinal studies that looked at the relationship between cannabis use and subsequent psychotic and affective outcomes. They found 11 studies from 7 cohorts that looked at psychotic outcomes and 24 studies from 15 cohorts that looked at affective outcomes. Increased Risk, Dose-Response Effect The researchers found a consistent increased risk for psychotic outcomes in the people who had ever used cannabis (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.41; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.20 - 1.65), with a greater risk in individuals who had used it most frequently (OR, 2.09; 95% CI, 1.54 - 2.84). Most studies excluded people with psychosis at baseline, so this association between cannabis use and psychosis is unlikely to result from reverse causation, the group writes. The studies also adjusted for about 60 confounding factors. "People who use cannabis might be different from other people in a number of factors and some of those might increase their risk of mental health disease, but even once we had adjusted for these factors, there was still an association," Dr. Zammit said. The evidence that cannabis use leads to depression, suicidal thoughts, and anxiety outcomes was less consistent. "Overall, the quality of the studies wasn't as robust as the studies for psychosis," said Dr. Zammit, adding that for example, many of the studies did not try to adjust for confounding factors. Although an individual's lifetime risk of developing a serious psychotic illness is only about 2% or 3%, he added, cannabis can be expected to have a large impact at a population level because exposure to this drug is so common. "The overall message is that people who use cannabis on a regular basis need to be aware of this risk, so they can make an informed judgement about whether they want to continue using it, or perhaps try to cut down their use," or seek treatment of dependency, he concluded. Merete Nordentoft, MD, and Carsten Hjorthøj, from Copenhagen University Hospital in Denmark, write that the study is the most comprehensive meta-analysis to date of this possible causal relationship and the adjustment for confounding factors and transient effects "is done more thoroughly than in previous reviews." They report, "We therefore agree with the authors' conclusion that there is sufficient evidence to warn young people that cannabis use will increase the risk of psychosis later in life."The general public has considered cannabis to be relatively harmless in comparison with alcohol and opioids, they note, cautioning that, "however, the potential long-term hazardous effects of cannabis with regard to psychosis seem to have been overlooked, and there is a need to warn the public of these dangers, as well as to establish treatment to help young frequent cannabis users. Thanks! Doctor Janice

You are welcome, James. Euphoria is a brain state caused by release of neurochemicals. It is not a state of mind that you can control by thinking it away. It is real and it is biological. Perhaps it would help if you tell me how and what you feel when you are in this state. Thanks Doctor Janice

Thanks, James. This behavior occurs with regular frequency. What appears to be happening is the the rat brain goes on a dopamine binge. The euphoria washes over the emotional ( rat) brain and effectively dampens the communication between the rat brain and the higher cognitive centers. It sets off a mechanism of looking for higher highs ( not in positions, rather in brain chemistry). This is what happens with the so-called "high" of addiction to drugs. The addict feels euphoria and loves it. So the addict uses more and more drugs in order to maintain and enhance that euphoria. What really happens is that more the addict uses drugs in this situation, the less euphoric they become. They are unable to replicate the original euphoric high. Nonetheless, they are driven to do so. This is one way that addicts go into "accidental" overdose---the drive for higher highs. This is a self-perpetuating and self-defeating system. The only way to deal with it is to not get euphoric in the first place! Once you are in the euphoria, you will get into a vicious cycle of taking greater and greater risks to maintain and enhance the euphoria. You need a constant "fix." Of course, you feel good about making money. That is natural. You feel not so good when you lose money. That is natural. The extremes--- euphoria or depression are where the dangers lie. The answer, James, is not taking smaller positions or trading less. The answer is mitigiating and dampening down on the euphoria. If you feel it washing over you, you are in rat brain mode, and your rat brain is always out to get you! Use your emotions to trade, of course. But always balance these emotions with your higher thinking functions. It is a delicate balance, but it is entirely possible to master. Thanks! Doctor Janice

PBS did a show called "Open Outcry." I think it was filmed around 2000, but I am not sure. Soon the colored jackets, hand movements and pit noise are likely to give way to the flickering electronic ticks, as the pits die a slow death. The end of an era. I have never liked endings much, but I am acutely aware that all things do end eventually. Thanks! Doctor Janice http://www.pbs.org/itvs/openoutcry/trading1.html

The role of intuition in trading has long interested me, and there have been a couple of articles written about it. I believe that intuition is a learned phenomenon that eventuates from a deep sense of trust in self. The more "successful" one is re: outcome, the more that process is entrained in the brain as intuition. Some traders have what they call a "feel" for the markets. I don't think they wake one day, having never studied the markets, and instantly get that "feel." It appears, rather, that said "feel" is borne from thousands of hours of screen time through ever-changing cycles. Patterns repeat. It is the same in life. You get a "feeling" about someone or something that is going on. It appears to come from your "gut" and you may actually feel sensations in the abdominal area. This is due to the communication from the vagus nerve ( one of the cranial nerves that originates in the brain ) down into the abdominal organs. In naturopathy and other non-allopathic medicines, the gut is considered a second brain. That said, I think that intuition ( unlike instinct) is likely a learned phenomenon. We will need brain imaging studies to disprove this. As you are aware, in science, it is always about disproving, rather than proving. An hypothesis is an hypothesis until it is disproved Tuesday, I will be presenting a webinar that has received almost no publicity. It will be at woodiescciclub.com at 4:30 PM est. It will be the first time I have presented to this particular group, so I don't know what to expect, how many will be there ( given the absence of publicity), etc. Hope you are all having a great holiday and taking time to share and care with loved ones. Thanks Doctor Janice

Now if everyone walking around with Diabesity (the new syndrome of Diabetes plus Obesity that is becoming epidemic in the world) could lose his belly this easily, it would be a much healthier world! With the merger of the CBOT and the CME, a physical consolidation of the two exchanges' trading floors will take place with the Merc floor being shuttered. As a result some current open outcry pits will move exclusively to the screen, a move that will likely mean the death of the product in certain cases By DOW JONES CHICAGO, Aug. 28 The CME Group, created recently when Chicago’s big futures exchanges merged, said Tuesday that it was closing trading pits for pork bellies and other products as traders increase their focus on electronic platforms. As part of their recent merger, the CME and the CBOT plan to consolidate their trading floors and electronic-trading platforms and to shift more trading business to computer screens. Starting in March, a handful of products that are floor-traded in limited amounts will move exclusively to CME’s Globex electronic platform. Those include agricultural products like frozen pork bellies futures and options, and cash dairy products. Some financial products will also move to exclusive screen trading, including one-month Libor futures and Euroyen futures, and options on futures. Commodities leaving the pits include 100-ounce gold options, 5,000-ounce silver options and ethanol futures. CME also said trading of all foreign exchange futures products would be consolidated into a single trading pit, while the trading of some foreign exchange products would move to Globex. None of the moves affect the biggest products at CME, which are financial futures and options tied to United States interest rate expectations. Those are traded both electronically and on trading floors. While some of the pits at issue have become sleepy, closing them represents a symbolic shift for the exchange and the culture of floor trading in Chicago. Pork bellies, for example, have been traded on the floor for 46 years. Thanks! Doctor Janice

Pyenner- The government will not take care of us. This is a delusion perpetrated on the gullible masses who believe that all they have to do is work their butts off for most of their adult lives and social security will provide. Ugh! You are good to go in this aspect since you see it and are attempting to do something about it. There is still a child inside of you who loves to play. This is part of the conflict you are expressing right now---the playful, innocent, stubborn child who doesn't have to grow up. Yet you must. This is where the difficult questions come in--each question leading to another and another. When on is truly committed to trading, something magical happens. The universe moves. You feel it all around you and know that you are truly called to this siren. But what of the other siren that calls you? Do you remember the story of Odysseus? In Greek mythology, Odysseus had to sail within earshot of the Sirens. No sailor could resist their seductive call. The penalty for giving in to this irresistible temptation was death by drowning - the fate experienced by all who had come before. Appreciating the danger, Odysseus filled his men's ears with wax so they would not be able to hear the Sirens. Odysseus wanted to hear what the Sirens sounded like. However, he knew that if he heard the Sirens he would be unable to resist, and so he pre-committed his future behavior by having himself tied with rope to the mast of the ship. The plan was successful. When Odysseus and his men sailed past the island the Sirens called, but the men could not hear so they kept rowing. Odysseus heard the Sirens, but he could not give in to the temptation, because he was tied to the mast. The Lessons of Odysseus and the Sirens: 1. Odysseus made his plans in advance. If he had waited until he heard the Sirens to try to figure out what to do, it would have been too late. 2. The men did not give in to temptation because they did not experience it. Likewise, you can engineer your environment to minimize your exposure to temptation - at least until the healthy habits have become well established - i.e., avoid high risk situations. 3. Because no sailor had previously survived, some might take a defeatist attitude and passively accept the inevitable defeat. But Odysseus was a hero, and approached the challenge as a problem to be solved. He devised a well conceived plan, and executed it as intended. 4. Finally, and most importantly, Odysseus experienced the temptation, but did not give in to it. How did he accomplish what had previously been impossible? Odysseus understood that the sirens had the power to make him act contrary to his current wishes. So while he was still in his right mind he predetermined his future behavior by having himself bound to the mast of the ship. It would be the rope, not the siren's call that determined Odysseus's behavior when they sailed past the Island of Circe. As Odysseus was bound by strong rope, so you can be bound by your committment to yourslef. Thanks for you always stimulating posts, YPenner! Doctor Janice

Now perhaps you see about the taboo of money. One day, I will tell you how a male friend helped me sneak into a men's locker room to listen to their conversation. I know--my bad! It was a number of years ago when I was young and beautiful, so the men didn't seem to mind when I appeared from one of the lockers. In any case, the conversation was awesome! There was some bragging about money, but it was pretty superficial and they didn't go into any detail because they were much more interested in hearing about the latest and greatest and longest etc sexual exploits. Even in men's locker rooms, they will tell you the imtimate details of their sex lives, but they won't tell you much about money. It is the same with women's locker rooms and the same when people used to come to see me for shrinkage. It truly is the last great taboo of our culture. One great thing about coaching is that the traders have to tell me how they are doing, so they are forced to talk about money. The more one is forced to talk about it, the easier it becomes and the more readily one is able to "get over himself" re: money and deal with what it really--at the very core of his existence--means to him. Thanks! Doctor Janice ( and NO!---I no longer sneak into men's locker rooms!)

Walter, You are the most adorable chimp I have seen in quite a while! Keep posting because it's good stuff. Thanks! Doctor Janice

This is a trader having a really bad day....wonder if money has anything to do with the behavior? http://tinyurl.com/3dom4k I would love to hear more from this board about money attitudes and how you see yourself in the world of money. Please prove me wrong when I say that money is the last great taboo of our culture and no one wants to talk about it? Thanks! Doctor Janice

For the experienced traders--and those that are taught properly--money is the byproduct of doing it correctly. For the huddled masses yearning to breathe free, the markets promise instant riches, magical thousands of percent increases to their accounts, holy grails, magical potions, tons of dopamine and every aspect of unbridled greed. Excellent perspective, Walter and thanks to all for sharing on this topic. Thanks! Doctor Janice

Hi Everyone, Money is the last great taboo of our culture. People will tell most everything about themselves, including the intimate details of their sex lives. With few exceptions, they will not tell you about money--how much they have, how much they want, what will or won't do to get it--what they think of people who may or may not have more or less money than they do--what money really means to them--how conflicted they are about money. Money is like an iceberg. The tip of the iceberg shows above the water as conflict, guilt and overwhelm. Below the surface are feelings of complacency, intimidation, silence, fear and ignorance. It is these deepest feelings about money that many are reluctant to face. These feelings are among those that lead to failure or success as a trader. Look at this conflict, stated by Vic Oliver: If a man runs after money, he's money-mad; if he spends it, he's a playboy; if he doesn't try to get t, he lacks ambition; if he gets it without working for it, he's a parasite; and, if he accumulates it after a lifetime of hard work, people call him a fool who never got anything out of life because all he did was work! Most traders and investors are preoccupied with money. They want to find the system, the indicators, the newsletter, the guru, the platform, the Holy Grail that will turn into an ATM for them. It is a search, ususally without end. Everyone wants to live in Richistan ( this is a book by Robert Frank) but few have passports or know how to get in---or stay in. What does money mean to you? What are your deepest fears about money? What are your hopes for money? How do you see yourself in the world of money? What does "having it all" mean to you? Thanks! Doctor Janice

It is a general axiom in the markets that perception trumps reality. As we all know, both are relative and, thus, can be reasonable or unreasonable---it just depends on who you/what/where you are. Thanks! Doctor Jance

I agree with Cooter's take on this, esp as regards the $TICK levels. How often are you seeing $TICK above 1000 since the short-selling rule was abolished? How often did you see it before? In addition to the state of confusion re: subprime mess, lack of transparency, lack of confidence and illiquidity in the bond markets---the "Bye Bye to Short Selling Tick Test" appears to be affecting market volatility in a significant manner. These markets are more deceptive than ever. I just sent out a "Little Shop Of Horrors" Alert. We are in no-man's land right now, waiting for the next pearl to drop from the lips of the almighty Fed. No matter what you think about the Fed, don't fight them. And- get used to the volatility, as it is likely to be around for some time. It is the absence of the short selling tick test plus the number of uncertain factors plaguing these markets at this time that will contribute to and continue this volatilty. There may be hope for reprieve from it in mid-Sept, but I wouldn't bet money on it right now. For market history buffs, the pattern of the DJIA in 2007 most closely resembles that of1946. Thanks! Doctor Janice

Here's an interesting article on the importance of sweating ( we chicks call it "glowing") during exercise. Sweating/glowing is a wonderful way to detox as those who use sauna or steam can attest: The era of gentle exercise is over. It's official: you've got to work up a sweat: http://tinyurl.com/328bvv Thanks! Doctor Janice ( still glowing after all these years!) Good Trading To All On Monday!!

The best of all possible worlds is to recognize mistakes as mistakes and learn from them so as to not keep doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. This is a big challenge for traders who want to be right, be perfect and have problems recognizing mistakes as mistakes ( rather they want to blame something or someone and not take personal responsibility). It is not really a third part of the brain tha governs "reflex trading." It is a synaptic strategy which sees the signal, recognizes the signal as positive and something that has produced good results in the past, is not internally conflicted about that signal and executes with little or no cognitive or emotional dissonance. It is a trained response, so, in a way you think of it like a reflex. The article I wrote in July for SFO was my attempt to at least begin a study of this in the actual context of the trader's brain. It is not the final answer,rather something to start a discussion and further study of how successful traders differ in their brain synaptic strategies from novice traders. I have received so much comment on this article, ranging from "Wow" to " this is too scientific" to "this is so easy that everyone knows about it" to " how ridiculous is this?" Whay's a girl to do? ;-) Keep studying, writing and trading and never give up! Thanks! Doctor Janice

Primordial mud, indeed. We have the brain of the Neanderthal. Still. In times of stress, distress, anxiety, fear, overload---the brain defaults into the old ( primitive, limbic, rat) brain. It does not think, rather it reacts. The processing in the rat brain is based purely on emotion--fight or flight, kill or be killed, starve or binge, procreate or continue to prowl until you do. The rat brain does not recognize the word "No." Everything is yes, yes , yes! Grab for all the gusto you can get and get it now and damn the torpedoes! The new ( rational, frontal lobe, thinking) brain is much slower to react. It wants to ponder, to analyze, to think things through. In times of overload, groupthink, massive bombardment from terabytes of information, the new brain can't keep up, so it just lets the old brain do its think. Bigger and better and faster and faster and keep grabbing because you want it all and you want it now. The power of the primordial slime that is the rat brain must never be underestimated. Think back to the times in your lives and your trading when you looked --in the calm tranquility of some future moment--and asked yourself: DUH! What in the name of ##$$$ was I thinking! How could I possibly have said/done/thought that? Now, what am I supposed to do to "fix" it or make it right? This is pure madness and I couldn't help myself--could I?" Your rat brain got you. It is always out to get you. We are addicted to dopamine and the promise of dopamine. The new brain is powerless in the presence of such euphoria. Game over: Rat brain wins. Next game: More of the same? OR- do we learn so as not to keep doing the same thing over and over again expecting different results? Thanks! Doctor Janice

Aug. 16 (Bloomberg) -- CME Group Inc., the world's largest futures exchange, will increase margin requirements on some securities traded on its markets from today's close. CME raised margin requirements on some currency, interest rate and stock-index futures, according to a notice sent by the exchange to members. CME, formed last month by the combination of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade, cited financial futures traded on both markets. Agricultural contracts weren't affected. http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNPXSQYMopGk

Jason has some great ideas in this book, and I congratulate him for the time and effort. I have the book and refer to it from time to time. I actually think that the personality of Jason is the most interesting part of this book. He is a man of many disguises, almost a chameleon who comes and goes like a shape shifter through the land of traders. He doesn't say much, but he listens a lot and wants you to talk to him so he can learn about you, even if he doesn't talk back. Have I ever met him? Unfortunately no. I would love to spend time with him because he has mastered among the most challenging of trading skills, i.e. learning how other traders think and do by having them tell him without his asking. If that is not genius, then what is? My hat is off to you, Jason---wherever you are! Thanks! Doctor Janice

James, You thank the postings on this forum, as do I. You have received wonderful guidance from people here. Now, it is time for you to thank yourself for having the courage to open up and share your hopes and fears. You have begun to take a laser look inside of yourself to find your truth and your direction. That is a fantastic beginning of a life-long journey. As long as you stay in your authentic self, and speak the truth to yourself and others, you will find one thing: The truth within you is stronger than all of your fears. Your rat brain is always out to get you---in the markets and in life. It is only by being fully alive and aware in the moment that you become comfortable with uncertainty and the crashing waves of emotion that your rat brain is pouring over you every day. Stay the course, James, as you are on the right path. There will be many twists and turns on the long and winding road that leads to your heart. That is where the truth is. Be gentle and patient with yourself and move forward with dignity and integrity. Whosoever wishes to know about the world must learn about it in its particular details. Knowledge is not intelligence. In searching for the truth be ready for the unexpected. Change alone is unchanging. The same road goes both up and down. The beginning of a circle is also its end. Not I, but the world says it: all is one. And yet everything comes in season…Herakllietos of Ephesos Thanks! Doctor Janice

Physical conditioning is critical. Studies have shown that one of the best ways to train your brain is to train your body. Oxygen uptake and blood flow increase to the brain when you are actively engaged in exercise. It doesn't have to be hard core, but it should be a regular part of your life. Just walking everyday for thirty minutes helps. So many traders are just plain out of shape physically. After all, this is a sedentary profession with many hours of sitting and much intense focus. Getting away from the screens, getting into the outdoors or the gym is a welcome respite from this. Many of you know that I am a competitive athlete, and have been for 25 years. I am not as young as I used to be ( who is?) but I am grateful that I can get out there and compete with the best of them. Now, it is not about winning gold or silver. It is about doing it and the wonderful feelings I have in body and mind when I complete a competition. If any of you has questions about how much or what kind of exercise might be helpful for you, please do not hesitate to write to me. Also, part of physical wellness is proper diet and that is another area in which many of us need some assistance. Trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Preserving capital is more than just financial capital--it is mental, emotional and physical. It takes a lean, strong horse for a long race. Thanks! Doctor Janice

Yes. I know exactly what you are saying. There are ever-changing cycles in the markets and in trading. It happens in sports where you see someone with a "hot hand" suddenly ( seemingly suddenly anyway) go cold. I am not a big sports person, but I believe there are many examples, and the sports fans here could help with this. I have seen it in ice skaters and also in Tiger Woods. I seem to recall that Tiger Woods went "cold" in his golf game. Do any of you remember that. He took time off and reassessed what he was doing and I think he changed several things about how he played. It is no different with trading. I have watched people I coach do really well for about six months or so and then go flat as a pancake for a few months and then come back roaring. I think it is possible to trade every day, but I do not believe it is possible to be so intensely trading for eight hours a day without some kind of burnout. It might not be full-blown burnout ( depression, physical illness), but reflected in a more subtle manner as lack of concentration, a general feeling of malaise, lessened ability to focus, etc. This is a sign that your body and brain give you that they need to rest and recover. Most traders ignore these signs until it is too late. This is not meant as an absolute, because everyone is different. However, it is my experience that traders are way too hard on themselves, overwork, underexercise and generally do not take care of their bodies. If you are going to be in it for the long run ( as most of us would like to be), it pays to listen to what your body is telling you. Get rich slowly and steadily and take time to enjoy the journey.. Thanks! Doctor Janice

The article I wrote for August SFO mag is an attempt to show how the emotional and rational pathways in the brain work together or don't work together. It is much to simplistic to think in terms of right brain and left brain. It is a starting point to understand that there are high road and low road pathways involved in making decisions. There is a Mr. Spock and a Dr. McCoy inside of each of our brains. I have spoken about this and there is a video I will find which is an introduction to this. I will write more on this as soon as time permits, as it is an excellent subject. Thanks! Doctor Janice

Good for you, James for taking time away. I think vacations should be mandatory for all traders. Trading can be among the most stressful of all professions. It's cool to take time with family and friends away from the sound and fury and put things into perspective. Just remember not to stay away too long, James, as I would love to hear about your progress as a trader and your life plan going forward. Thanks for opening up and sharing and I am thrilled that this has been of some small help to you! Thanks! Doctor Janice

Pyenner, This has to be among the most profound and introspective of any post I have read on this thread. It is truly remarkable that you have the ability to pour your thoughts out in such an articulate manner. The money in life goes to those who, even for a minute or an hour, lift us out of some reality that we perceive to be painful, intolerable, unbearable, pedestrian, quietly desperate. Think of the TV stars who get paid hundreds of thousands of dollars per one hour episode. Think of the movie actors who get paid millions for one film, the rappers and musicians who inhabit megamansions and drip with bling. Think of the athlete superstars making many millions a year. These and others give us deliverance, transport us to another place and time and another reality. Over eight million people now are living in secondlife.com ( and 40,000 are there right now which means that the others may have found a new and improved virtual community) where they can be anyone they want to be and do anything they want to do. Children play at fantasy and it is fantasy that draws us to it because it is just that. Pornography is fantasy and is a multibillion dollar a year business. At some level, we are all addicts. Everyone is addicted to something, even though they may not know it or may not tell you.The ego is soluble in alcohol, drugs and and addicting activities. We escape the pounding demands of our ego through substances and fantasies. Those who are addicted to trading escape through the flickering ticks. Fantasy can become our reality. We are in a day and age when we can have fantasy anytime we want it and can play as long as we want. Sometimes ( usually) we pay to play, but it is worth it because it keeps the dream alive and we don't have to remember that which is so painful and that we chose to forget. There is nothing good or bad about any of this. It simply is what it is. We each make our own reality and it is our personal choice. This is far from Freudian psychobabble. This is about how we each chose to spend our time. This is about taking personal responsibility for living our lives in the way that makes us the most happy and fulfilled. Different strokes for different folks and there is nothing bad about any of it unless it does harm to another sentient being. You want deliverance, Pyenner. From what do you want deliverance? Does hope float and reality bite? What does deliverance mean to you? Thanks for the awesome post, Pyenner! Talk to me as I need to hear you. I might be a little addicted to the way your brain works. Thanks! Doctor Janice