titi1909

Correlation table and COT analysis

I have not read the book but if you test most of these patterns, they are barely 50/50 hence no edge.

I disagree with you on the 1 to 4% risk. It s far too much.

Monday 03 November 08:00 GMT MAINZ, Germany - Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret will speak at a conference in Mainz 12:00 GMT E18: ECB Vice-President Constâncio speaks at CEMFI in Madrid 14:00 GMT E18: ECB SSM Chair Nouy speaks at European Parliament in Brussels 14:30 GMT US: Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Illinois 17:35 GMT TORONTO - Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz speaks to the Canadian Council for Public-Private Partnerships 17:40 GMT US: Dallas Fed President Fisher (FOMC voter) speaks in New York 00:30 GMT Australia: Building approvals, % m/m Sep Prev 3.0 Cons -1.0 00:30 GMT Australia: Job advertisements, % m/m Oct Prev Prev 0.9 01:00 GMT China: NBS non-manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 54.0 01:45 GMT China: Final HSBC manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.4P Cons 50.4 07:30 GMT Sweden: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 53.4- Cons 52.5 08:00 GMT UK: Halifax house price index, % m/m (3m/y) Oct Prev 0.6 (9.6) Cons (9.1) 08:13 GMT Spain: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 52.6 Cons 52.30 08:30 GMT Swi: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.4 Cons 51.20 08:43 GMT Italy: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.7 Cons 50.7 08:48 GMT France: "Final" manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 47.3P Cons 47.3 08:53 GMT Germany: "Final" manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 51.8P Cons 51.8 08:58 GMT E18: "Final" manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 50.7P Cons 50.70 09:28 GMT UK: Manufacturing PMI, index Oct Prev 51.6 Cons 51.5 14:45 GMT US: Markit PMI-f, index Oct Prev 56.2- Cons 56.0 15:00 GMT US: ISM manufacturing index Oct Prev 56.6 Cons 56.5 15:00 GMT US: Construction spending, % m/m Sep Prev -0.8 Cons 0.7 Tuesday 04 November 07:00 GMT NICOSIA - ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure speaks on 'Current Developments in Euro Area' and European Stability Mechanism Managing Director Klaus Regling on 'Thinking beyond the Crisis' at one-day conference in Cyprus organized by the Economist 16:00 GMT BOCHUM, Germany - Bundesbank board member Andreas Dombret speaks in Bochum about European banking supervision 00:30 GMT Australia: Trade balance, AUD mn Sep Prev -787 Cons -1775 00:30 GMT Australia: Retail sales, % m/m Sep Prev 0.1 Cons 0.3 00:30Australia: Real Retail sales, % q/q Sep Prev -0.2 Cons 0.5 05:00 GMT Japan: Auto sales, % y/y Oct Prev -2.8 09:30 GMT UK: Construction PMI, index Oct Prev 64.2 Cons 63.4 10:00 GMT E18: PPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -0.1 (-1.4) Cons 0.0 (-1.5) 13:30 GMT US: Trade balance, $ bn Sep Prev -40.1 Cons -40.0 13:30 GMT Canada: Int'l merchandise trade, $ bn Sep Prev -0.6- Cons -0.7 21:45 GMT New Zealand: Unemployment rate, %Q Prev 5.6- Cons 5.5 21:45 GMT New Zealand: Employment change, % q/qQ3 Prev 0.4- Cons 0.6 21:45 GMT New Zealand: Participation rate, %Q3 Prev 68.9- Cons 69.0 21:45 GMT New Zealand: Private sector wages excl. overtime, % q/qQ3 Prev 0.6- Cons 0.5 21:45 GMT New Zealand: Private sector wages incl. overtime, % q/qQ3 Prev 0.6- Cons 0.5 21:45 GMT New Zealand: Hourly earnings (% q/q) Q3 Prev 0.5- Cons 1.1 22:30 GMT Australia: AIG/CBA services PSI, index Oct Prev 45.4 Wednesday 05 November Poland: Repo rate, % Nov Prev 2.00 Cons 1.75 02:30 GMT TOKYO - Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda speaks at an event hosted by Kyodo news agency 07:30 GMT Thailand: Benchmark interest rate, %Nov Prev 2.00 Cons 2.00 14:15 GMT US: Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota (FOMC voter) speaks in Minnesota 14:30 GMT US: Richmond Fed President Lacker (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Washington 15:00 GMT US: Boston Fed President Rosengren (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Lima, Peru 23:50 GMT TOKYO - Bank of Japan will release the minutes of its October policy-setting meeting 01:30 GMT Japan: Wages per worker, % y/y Sep Prev 0.9 Cons 0.8 05:58 GMT Ireland: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 62.5 Cons 62.3 07:30 GMT Sweden: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 55.6 08:13 GMT Spain: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 55.8 Cons 55.5 08:15 GMT Swi: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Oct Prev 0.1 (-0.1) Cons -0.1 (-0.1) 08:30 GMT Sweden: Service production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.7 (2.3) 08:30 GMT Sweden: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -0.2 (-2.4) Cons 0.3 (-2.0) 08:43 GMT Italy: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 48.8 Cons 49.4 08:48 GMT France: "Final" services PMI, index Oct Prev 48.2P Cons 48.1 08:53 GMT Germany: Final services PMI, index Oct Prev 54.8P Cons 54.8 08:58 GMT E18: Final services PMI, index Oct Prev 52.4P Cons 52.4 08:58 GMT E18: Final composite PMI, index Oct Prev 52.2P Cons 52.2 09:28 GMT UK: Services PMI, index Oct Prev 58.7- Cons 58.4 10:00 GMT E18: Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 1.2 (1.9) Cons -0.7 (1.5) 13:15 GMT US: ADP private payrolls, chg, k Oct 217202 Prev 213 Cons 214 15:00 GMT US: ISM non-manufacturing index Oct 58.759.6 Prev 58.6 Cons 58.0 Thursday 06 November 1, 2014 08:30 GMT E18: ECB SSM Chair Nouy speaks at banking conference in Brussels 10:00 GMT Malaysia: Overnight rate, %Nov Prev 3.25 Cons 3.25 12:00 GMT Czech: Repo rate announcement, %Nov Prev 0.05 Cons 0.05 12:00 GMT UK: BoE Bank rate decision, %Nov Prev 0.50 Cons 0.50 12:00 GMT UK: BoE asset purchase decisionNov375375 Prev 375 Cons 375 12:45 GMT E18: ECB Interest rate announcement, %Nov Prev 0.05 Cons 0.05 13:30 GMT E18: ECB Press conference 14:00 GMT E18: Eurogroup meeting in Brussels 14:00 GMT WASHINGTON - Former Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland president Jerry Jordan will attend the Cato Institute's 32nd Annual Monetary Conference 15:40 GMT US: Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Illinois 18:30 GMT US: Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks in Illinois 00:30 GMT Australia: Employment change, k Oct Prev -29.7 Cons 10.0 00:30 GMT Australia: Unemployment rate, % Oct Prev 6.16.1 Cons 6.1 00:30 GMT Australia: Participation rate, % Oct Prev 64.5- Cons 64.5 07:00 GMT Germany: Factory orders, %m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -5.7 (-1.3) Cons 2.2 (-1.0) 08:30 GMT Netherlands: HICP, % m/m (y/y) Oct Prev 0.0 (0.2) Cons -0.2 (0.4) 09:30 GMT UK: Industrial output, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (2.5) Cons 0.4 (1.6) 09:30 GMT UK: Manufacturing output, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.1 (3.9) Cons 0.3 (2.8) 13:30 GMT US: Initial jobless claims, k (4wma) 01-Nov Prev 287 (281) Cons 285 13:30 GMT US: Non-farm productivity-p, % q/q 3Q P Prev 2.3 Cons 0.9 13:30 GMT US: Unit labor cost-p, % q/q 3Q P Prev -0.1 Cons 0.9 13:30 GMT Canada: Building permits, % m/m Sep Prev -27.3 Cons 5.0 15:00 GMT Canada: Ivey PMI, index Oct Prev 58.6 22:30 GMT Australia: AIG Construction PCI, index Oct Prev 59.1 Friday 07 November E18: ECB SSM Chair Nouy and Executive Board member Coeuré speaks at symposium in Brussels- Greece: PM Samaras visits Cyprus (to 08/11) 00:05 GMT US: Cleveland Fed President Mester (FOMC-voter) speaks in New York 00:30 GMT Australia: RBA statement on Monetary policyNov 08:00 GMT E28: ECOFIN meeting in Brussels 14:15 GMT US: Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Illinois 15:15 GMT US: Fed chair Yellen (FOMC voter) speaks in Paris, France 19:30 GMT US: Fed Governor Tarullo (FOMC voter) speaks in Washington, D.C. 22:00 GMT E18: ECB Vice-President Constâncio speaks at annual international banking conference in Chicago 06:45 GMT Swi: Unemployment rate (adj), % Oct Prev 3.2 Cons 3.2 07:00 GMT Germany: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev -4.0 (-2.8) Cons 2.0 (-0.6) 07:00 GMT Germany: Trade balance sa, € bn Sep Prev 14.0 Cons 19.0 07:30 GMT France: BdF industrial business sentiment, index Oct Prev 96.1 Cons 95.0 07:45 GMT France: Industrial production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (-0.3) Cons -0.2 (-0.2) 07:45 GMT France: Budget, year-to date, € bn Sep Prev -94.1 07:45 GMT France: Trade balance, € bn Sep Prev -5.8- Cons -5.1 09:00 GMT Norway: Manufacturing production, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 1.0 (5.2) Cons -0.7 09:30 GMT UK: Visible trade balance, £bn Sep Prev -9.1 Cons -9.3 13:30 GMT US: Non-farm payrolls, chg, k Oct Prev 248 Cons 230 13:30 GMT US: Private non-farm payrolls, chg, k Oct Prev 236 Cons 225 13:30 GMT US: Unemployment rate, %Oct Prev 5.9 Cons 5.9 13:30 GMT US: Average hourly earnings, % m/m (y/y) Oct Prev 0.0 (2.0) Cons 0.2 (2.1) 13:30 GMT US: Average weekly hours Oct Prev 34.6 Cons 34.6 13:30 GMT Canada: Unemployment rate, %Oct Prev 6.8 Cons 6.8 13:30 GMT Canada: Net change in employment, k Oct Prev 74.1 Cons 0.0 13:30 GMT Canada: Participation Rate, %Oct Prev 66.0- Cons 66.0 14:00 GMT Mexico: CPI inflation, % m/m Oct Prev 0.44 Cons 0.55 20:00 GMT US: Consumer credit, chg, $ bn Sep Prev 13.5 Cons 16.0 Saturday 08 November China: Trade Balance, USD bn Oct Prev 40.0 Cons 35.4 China: Exports, % y/y Oct Prev 15.3 Cons 10.0 China: Imports, % y/y Oct Prev 7.0 Cons 7.0 Sunday 09 November Spain: Catalonia referendum

yes that's me on that forum and I have no idea how to change my username here.

NZDUSD Long Signal from CFTC Commitment of Traders Report Very few times - historically - commercials (hedgers) have turned net long NZDUSD - as per the CFTC commitment of traders report which is published every Friday. And on all of these instances (when they turn long) except one, the pair NZDUSD has formed a base and rallied higher. (In the chart below, the yellow line is NZDUSD weekly and white line is commercial position). As per the latest COT report, commercials' position is 5865 long, which is almost at historical high. So, this signals time for NZDUSD to form a base above the strong support level of 0.7700 and rally northwards.

ORDERS-EUR/USD bids 1.2770, 1.2735-40, 1.2715-20 * EUR/USD Offers 1.2850, 1.2880-90, 1.2900, stops above * USD/JPY bids 106.20, 106.00, offers 107.00, 107.20-30, 107.50 * USD/CHF 0.9400, 0.9385-90, 0.9365-70, offers 0.9450, 0.9475-80 * EUR/JPY bids 136.20, 136.00, 135.75-80, offers 136.80, 137.00, 137.10 * AUD/USD bids 0.8770, 0.8730-40, offers 0.8830, 0.8840-50 * USD/CAD bids 1.1250-60, 1.1220-30 offers 1.1290-00, 1.1325-30 GBP/USD-Offers touted pre-1.62, stops above * Cable offers are touted ahead of 1.62, with stops tipped above the figure * 1.6179 = Monday's high, 1.6186 = Asia high, 1.6189 = 30DMA * 1.62 = 50% of 1.6525-1.5875. More stops tipped above 1.6226 (Oct 9 top) * 1.6151 (Mon Ldn session high) is now a support level. 1.6153 = Asia low OPTIONS-Larger DTCC expiries for NY cut * AUD/USD: 0.8650 (323M), 0.8800 (139M). NZD/USD: 0.8105 (846M) * USD/CAD: 1.1150 (335M), 1.1250 (190M) * EUR/USD: 1.2700 (2.1BLN), 1.2750 (1BLN), 1.2800 (1.6BLN) * USD/JPY: 106.25 (300M), 107.00 (885M), 107.50 (682M)

EURUSD continues to correct higher, but we still look for resistance at 1.2996/3001 to turn the trend lower again. GBPUSD above 1.6128 would allow a test of 1.6228 and through it is needed for a base. USDJPY ideally stays capped below key resistance at 107.50/58. NZDUSD spotlight stays on the downtrend and price resistance at .7987/99. AUDUSD remains in a broad sideways range. EURJPY immediate risk stays marginally lower while capped below 136.58/59. USDCAD ideally holds above 1.1161/59 to keep its immediate uptrend. Today: ECB's Coeure: • Start to purchase assets within days • Expects stronger take-up at Dec TLTRO. Sept take-up disappointed • Sees positive euro zone growth in Q3, Q4 • EUR value not a monetary policy objective • Governing council will take additional measures if needed Today: ECB’s Nowotny • Ecb's Nowotny Says Differnt Dynamic In Us, Europe To Have Impact On Exchange Rates • Ecb's Nowotny Says Weaker Euro Tends To Boost Euro Zone Economy, Help Raise Inflation • Ecb's Nowotny Says Countries Can Get More Time To Meet Deficit Targets Should They Adopt Structural Reforms • Ecb's Nowotny Says Interest Rates Cannot Go Much Lower • Ecb's Nowotny Says Austrian Banks Should Do Well In Stress Tests, One Bank Has Taken Precautionary Measures • Ecb's Nowotny Says Uncertainty Expected To Be Reduced In November With New Banking Supervision, More Potential For Lending • Ecb's Nowotny Says Situation With Banks Massively Better Than During Financial Crisis • Ecb's Nowotny Says Nonsense To Speak Of Ecb As Bad Bank Amid Discussion Of Abs Purchase Programme EUR/GBP-Dovish Haldane supports, 0.7985 resistance BoE chief economist's dovish steer lends support to cross Haldane unlikely to join Weale & McCafferty in voting for hike anytime soon Minutes from October's MPC meeting will be published next week (Oct 22) Dovish shift in UK rate expectations after Tuesday's CPI downside surprise EUR/GBP offers touted at 0.7985 (rally high from Thurs 0.7948 low) & 0.80 ORDERS- EUR/USD bids, 1.2780 and 1.2740-50 EUR/USD offers 1.2850, 1.2880-90, Opt Exp Incl a yard of 1.2740-50s USD/JPY bids 105.80, 105.50-60, offers 106.50, 106.90-00 USD/CHF 0.9400, 0.9385-90, offers 0.9475-80 EUR/JPY bids 135.50-60, 135.40, 135.20, 135.00-10, offers 136.40-50 AUD/USD bids 0.8730, 0.8700-05, offers 0.8800, 0.8825-30, 0.8840-50

GBP/USD-Decent UK jobs data could lend support UK jobs & earnings figures due 0830GMT, 24 hours after soft UK CPI Better than expected data could spur some profit-taking on GBP shorts ILO jobless rate f/c 6.1%. Claimant count f/c -35k. Earnings f/c +0.7% 1.5878 = 11mth low for cable in Asia, 1.5920 = ensuing high water-mark Offers tipped near 1.5950 (1.5953 = Oct 3 low, after strong US jobs data) Cable was trading on 1.60 handle into 1.2% UK CPI shock ORDERS- EUR/USD a yard of 1.2605 and 1.27 expiries EUR/USD bids 1.2620, 1.2600-10, stops, offers 1.2680, 1.2695-00 USD/JPY bids 106.75-80, 106.50-60, offers 107.60, 107.75-80 USD/CHF bids 0.9520, 0.9500, offers 0.9570, 0.9590-00 EUR/JPY bids 135.00-10, stops, offers 135.90-00, 136.20-25, 136.40-50 OPTIONS-Larger DTCC expiries for NY cut AUD/USD: 0.8800 (329M). EUR/USD: 1.2600 (367M), 1.2605 (1BLN), 1.2610 (353M) 1.2675-50 (300M), 1.2700 (1.24BLN), 1.2715 (750M) EUR/GBP: 0.7960 (720M) USD/JPY: 107.00 (850M), 107.20 (1BLN), 108.10-15 (600M)

October 2014 Seasonal

Sunday 28 September 1615 GMT: CHICAGO - Former U.S. Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke speaks before the National Association for Business Economics annual meeting in Chicago SWITZERLAND - Referendum election Monday 29 September GENEVA - Swiss National Bank (SNB) Chairman Thomas Jordan to give speech at Club Suisse de la Presse ROME 13:00 GMT: US: Chicago Fed President Evans (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Illinois 16:00 GMT: ROME - ECB governing council member Ignazio Visco will be present at a book launch event on "cognitive economics" Germany: Baden-Wuerttemberg CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep) Prev 0.0 (0.9) cons -0.1 (0.7) Germany: Bavaria CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.1 (0.8) cons-0.1 (0.6) Germany: Hesse CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.7) cons-0.1 (0.6) Germany: North Rhine Westphalia CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.1 (1.1) cons-0.1 (1.1) Germany: Brandenburg CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.9) cons-0.1 (0.9) Germany: Saxony CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.8) cons-0.1 (0.8) Germany: Preliminary HICP, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.8) cons-0.1 (0.7) Germany: Preliminary CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (0.8) cons-0.1 (0.8) Belgium: CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep Prev 0.0 (-0.4) 07:00 GMT: Spain: Preliminary HICP, % y/y Sep Prev -0.5 cons -0.3 07:30 GMT: Sweden: Retail Sales, % m/m (y/y) Aug Prev -0.7 (2.3) cons 0.6 (3.4) 09:00 GMT: E18: Industrial confidence, index Sep prev -5.3 cons-5.8 09:00 GMT: E18: 'Final' consumer confidence, index Sep prev -11.4 P cons -11.4 12:30 GMT: US: Personal income, % m/m Aug prev 0.2 cons 0.3 12:30 GMT: US: Personal spending, % m/m Aug prev -0.1 cons 0.4 12:30 GMT: US: PCE price index, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev 0.1 (1.6) cons -0.1 (1.4) 12:30 GMT: US: Core PCE price index, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev 0.1 (1.5) cons0.0 (1.4) 14:00 GMT: US: Pending home sales, % m/m Aug prev 3.3 cons-0.5 21:45 GMT: New Zealand: Building consents, % m/m Aug prev 0.1 cons 0.0 23:05 GMT: UK: GfK consumer confidence, index Sep prev 1 cons 0 23:30 GMT: Japan: Unemployment rate, % Aug prev 3.8 cons 3.8 23:30 GMT: Japan: Jobs/applicants ratio Aug prev 1.10 cons 1.10 23:30 GMT: Japan: Real household spending, % y/y Aug prev -5.9 cons -3.6 23:50 GMT: Japan: Industrial production, % m/m Aug prev 0.4 cons 0.2 Tuesday 30 September LONDON - Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member David Miles speaks at London School of Economics and Political Science OSLO - Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olsen gives a speech at a seminar arranged by the Centre for Monetary Economics (CME) at Nordea in Oslo Romania: Interest rate announcement, % Sep prev 3.25 cons 3.00 05:30 GMT: India: RBI reverse repo rate, % Sep prev 7.00 prev 7.00 05:30 GMT: India: RBI repo rate, % Sep prev 8.00 – cons 8.00 07:00 GMT: E18: ECB Executive Board member Lautenschläger speaks on bank regulation in Austria 14:45 GMT: US: Fed Governor Powell (FOMC voter) speaks in Washington 00:00 GMT: New Zealand: Business confidence, index Sep prev 24.4 01:30 GMT: Australia: RBA private-sector credit, % m/m Aug prev 0.4 cons 0.5 01:30 GMT: Japan: Wages per worker, % y/y Aug prev 2.4 cons 1.0 01:45 GMT: China: Final HSBC manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 50.5P cons 50.5 06:00 GMT: Germany: Retail sales sa, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev-1.1 (1.0) cons 0.5 (0.3) 06:00 GMT: UK: Nationwide house price Index, % m/m (y/y) Sep prev 0.8 (11.0) cons 0.5 (10.4) 06:45 GMT: France: Hhsld consum. goods, % m/m (y/y) Jul/Aug prev 0.9 (1.8) cons -0.1 (1.3 07:00 GMT: Swi: KoF leading indicator Sep prev 99.5 cons 99.0 07:55 GMT: Germany: Unemployment change (000s, sa); (rate, %) Sep prev 2 (6.7) cons -2 (6.7) 08:00 GMT: Italy: Unemployment rate, % Aug prev 12.6 cons 12.5 08:30 GMT: UK: GDP final release, % q/q (y/y) Q2 prev 0.8 (3.2) cons 0.8 (3.2) 08:30 GMT: UK: Current account, £bn Q2 prev -18.5 cons -16.8 09:00 GMT: E18: Unemployment rate, % Aug prev 11.5 cons 11.5 09:00 GMT: Italy: Preliminary HICP, % m/m (y/y) Sep prev -0.2 (-0.2) cons 1.9 (-0.1) 09:00 GMT: Italy: Preliminary CPI, % m/m (y/y) Sep prev 0.2 (-0.1) cons -0.2 (0.0) 09:00 GMT: E18: "Flash" HICP, % y/y Sep prev 0.4 cons 0.3 09:00 GMT: E18: 'Eurostat' core (HICP x fd, alc, tob, ene), % (y/y) Sep prev 0.9 cons 0.9 12:30 GMT: Canada: GDP, % m/m (y/y) Jul prev 0.3 (3.1) cons 0.2 12:30 GMT: Canada: Industrial product price, % m/m Aug prev -0.3 cons -0.2 13:45 GMT: US: Chicago PMI index Sep prev 64.3 cons 61.5 14:00 GMT: US: Consumer confidence index Sep prev 92.4 cons 92.4 23:00 GMT: Korea: CPI, % y/y Sep prev 1.4 cons 1.5 23:30 GMT: Australia: AIG/PWC manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 47.3 cons 23:50 GMT: Japan: Tankan DI for mftg/non-mftg, index Q3 prev 12/19 cons 10/17 Wednesday 01 October Italy: Deadline for Government to present new GDP, deficit and debt forecasts to cabinet 12:15 GMT: Germany: Chancellor Merkel speaks at the annual conference of the BGA association of exporters and wholesellers in Berlin 00:00 GMT: Australia: RP Data-Rismark house price, % m/m Sep prev 1.1 cons 00:00 GMT: Korea: Exports, % y/y Sep prev -0.1 cons 6.5 01:00 GMT: China: NBS manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 51.1 cons 51.0 01:30 GMT: Australia: Retail sales, % m/m Aug prev 0.4 cons 0.4 05:00 GMT: Japan: Auto sales, % y/y Sep prev-5.0 cons 06:30 GMT: Australia: Commodity price index, % y/y Sep prev -11.5 cons 06:30 GMT: Sweden: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 51.0 cons 51.8 07:13 GMT: Spain: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 52.8 cons52.8 07:30 GMT: Swi: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 52.9 cons52.0 07:43 GMT: Italy: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 49.8 cons49.6 07:48 GMT: France: Final manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 48.8P cons48.8 07:53 GMT: Germany: Final manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 50.3P cons50.3 07:58 GMT: E18: Final manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 50.5P cons50.5 08:28 GMT: UK: Manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 52.5 cons 52.6 12:15 US: ADP private payrolls, chg, k Sep prev 204 cons 204 13:30 GMT: Singapore: PMI, index Sep prev 49.7 cons 13:45 GMT: US: Final Markit PMI, index Sep prev 57.9 cons 14:00 GMT: US: ISM manufacturing index Sep prev 59.0 cons 58.5 14:00 GMT: US: Construction spending, % m/m Aug prev 1.8 cons 0.4 Thursday 02 October 05:15 GMT: Australia: RBA Annual report 08:30 GMT:. LONDON - Bank of England Financial Policy Committee quarterly policy statement 11:45 GMT: E18: ECB Interest rate announcement, % Oct prev 0.05 cons 12:30 GMT: E18: ECB Press conference 17:00 GMT: US: Atlanta Fed President Lockhart (FOMC non-voter) speaks in Georgia 22:30 GMT: TUPELO, United States - Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard participates in event: "A Conversation with St. Louis Fed President James Bullard" on the U.S. economy and monetary policy in Tupelo RICHMOND – Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy hold two-day conference on "The Labor Market After the Great Recession" (to Oct. 3). ALESUND, Norway - Norges Bank Governor Oystein Olsen and Norges Bank Investment Management Deputy Chief Executive Officer Trond Grande address Norges Bank's regional network. 01:00 GMT: Australia: HIA new home sales, % m/m Aug prev -5.7 01:00 GMT: New Zealand: Commodity prices, % m/m Sep prev -3.3 01:30 GMT: Australia: Trade balance, AUD mn Aug prev -1359 cons -850 01:30 GMT: Australia: Building approvals, % m/m Aug prev 2.5 cons 1.0 08:30 GMT: UK: Construction PMI Sep prev 64.0 cons 63.5 09:00 GMT: E18: PPI, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev -0.1 (-1.1) cons -0.1 (-1.2) 12:30 GMT: US: Initial jobless claims, k (4wma) 27-Sep prev 293 (299) cons 300 14:00 GMT: US: Factory orders, %m/m Aug prev 10.5 cons -9.0 23:30 GMT: Australia: AIG/CBA services PSI, index Sep prev 49.4 Friday 3 October KRISTIANSAND, Norway - Norges Bank Deputy Governor Jon Nicolaisen and Norges Bank Investment Management Chief Risk Officer Jan Thomsen address Norges Bank's regional network in Kristiansand. 10:00 GMT: Germany: Chancellor Merkel speaks at Day of German Unity; Hanover Congress Centrum 01:00 GMT: China: NBS non-manufacturing PMI, index Sep prev 54.4 cons 04:58 GMT: Ireland: Services PMI, index Sep prev 62.5 cons 61.7 06:30 GMT: Sweden: Services PMI, index Sep prev 54.2 cons 07:00 GMT: Turkey: CPI, % y/y Sep prev 9.5 cons 9.5 07:13 Spain: Services PMI, index Sep prev 58.1 cons 57.3 07:30 GMT: Sweden: Service production, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev -0.7 (2.0) 07:43 GMT: Italy: Services PMI, index Sep prev 49.8 cons 49.3 07:48 GMT: France: Final services PMI, index Sep prev 49.4P cons 49.4 07:53 GMT: Germany: Final services PMI, index Sep prev 55.4P cons 55.4 07:58 GMT: E18: Final services PMI, index Sep prev 52.8P cons 52.8 07:58 GMT: E18: Final composite PMI, index Sep prev 52.3P cons 52.3 08:00 GMT: Norway: Registered unemployment rate, % Sep prev 2.9 cons 2.7 08:28 GMT: UK: Services PMI Sep prev 60.5 cons 59.0 09:00 GMT: E18: Retail sales, % m/m (y/y) Aug prev -0.4 (0.8) cons 0.1 (0.7) 12:30 GMT: Canada: Int'l merchandise trade, $ bn Aug prev 2.6 cons 1.5 12:30 GMT: US: Trade balance, $ bn Aug prev -40.5 cons -40.7 12:30 GMT: US: Non-farm payrolls, chg, k Sep prev 142 cons 210 12:30 GMT: US: Private non-farm payrolls, chg, k Sep prev 134 cons 198 12:30 GMT: US: Unemployment rate, % Sep prev 6.1 cons 6.1 12:30 GMT: US: Average hourly earnings, % m/m (y/y) Sep prev 0.2 (2.1) cons 0.2 (2.2) 12:30 GMT: US: Average weekly hours Sep prev 34.5 cons 34.5 14:00 GMT: US: ISM non-manufacturing index Sep prev 59.6 cons 58.5