davidsiegel

Hi. I'm researching decisionmaking, and I'd like you to conduct a poll of your readers and let's see what the results are. Here is the question: Dear Trading Lab rats, I run a workshop for business decisionmakers on cognitive biases and statistical decisionmaking. I'm doing a bit of research here. Please answer yes or no to the following question. I have a bag with 9 white marbles and 1 black marble. I have put $1400 on the table next to the bag. If you give me $100, I will let you draw one marble out of the bag. If it's white, i keep the entire $1500 and you lose $100. If it's black, you keep the entire $1500 and I lose $1400. This happens one time only. Assuming you can afford to lose $100 but that this is real money and you value it, and that you can't do it a second time: do you take this bet? Thank you, David Siegel