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Everything posted by Ammeo
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If you take a look at the 1,3475 line on daily and look back quite some years, you will notice that 1,3475 area is one nasty support/resistance area. Momentum is needed to get down trough, and we actually got stopped at it. 2013 EU was trying hard to get above it and stay there. november 2013 it got pushed, with the help of ECB rate cut, below with serious momentum, but got back up. 20 th nov it was at it again with momentum. Some days later we were again back on the upside. So my guess is, if we need to break down, we need some serious momentum, and that needs to be built. So a bounce from here to? 1,3572-77. My daily view tells me we are consolidating and this should be the low in the range so we should be heading up. But US strength can now start changing that view, but until break of consolidation, we are still in it.. and that 1,3475 area is keeping us from falling.
- 318 replies
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Bundesbank Would Favor End of ECB Sterilization -- Source Move Would Boost Liquidity in Banking System FRANKFURT—Germany's Bundesbank would favor an end to the European Central Bank's policy of withdrawing significant amounts of money from the banking system to offset its government-bond holdings, a person familiar with the matter said. Such a move, which would have the effect of boosting liquidity in the banking system, would be aimed at smoothing out recent volatility in money markets, the person said. Under an ECB bond plan known as the Securities Markets Program, the central bank committed to withdrawing funds from the banking system in amounts equal to what it accumulated in government bonds of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. The ECB bought more than €200 billion ($271 billion) in these bonds under the facility from 2010 to 2012. Each week, it drains funds by offering financial institutions interest-bearing deposits, a process known as sterilization. It is unclear whether there is a consensus on the ECB to end the policy, the person said. The ECB meets on Thursday. In December, ECB President Mario Draghi said the ECB was "reflecting" on the issue. Sterilization helps to keep the money supply stable, and the policy also shields the ECB from criticism that it has used its balance sheet to monetize government debt. But the strategy has led to some concerns in financial markets that the ECB is creating additional volatility in short-term money markets by reducing the amount of liquidity in the banking system. By ending the sterilization, the ECB would increase the amount of surplus funds that banks trade with each other, the person familiar with the matter said, anchoring short-term interest rates. The central bank has been unsuccessful in recent weeks in draining the full amount of their remaining government bond holdings. In the latest week, banks deposited just over €150 billion with the ECB under the sterilization program, €26 billion short of its target. Bundesbank Would Favor End of ECB Sterilization - WSJ.com
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Yes i think i may have gone wrong this time, i was thinking its gonna tank for a while,...
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The USD is now 1/1250th the value of what it was in 1814. That's an average drop in value of $6.25 a year. The FED has sold off gold at a rate of 66 tons per annum over the same period. At that rate, the US will have sold off 90% of it's reserves in 100 years time. Unfortunately, that's not the case. This past recession time since 2008, they have sold off nearly 1200 tons meaning that there is about 20 years of gold left at the renewed sell-off rate. As it stands now, the US owns about $343,750,000,000 worth of gold at last count. That is about 1/50th of national deficit and cannot save the country from disaster in a crash. Gold is meant to be a hedge against inflation and create a reserve to fall back on. Effectively the amount of gold held by the US is also owned by other countries and one of those is notably Germany. The US holds about $46,875,000,000 worth of German gold. Now that should tell you a lot about how the reserve currency has become a basket case due to financial mismanagement. Unless the price of gold rallies to $5000, the USD is very close to bankruptcy and loss of reserve status.
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Wednesday's FOMC manoeuvre should provide strength to USD. I read somewhere that Yen-selling by the BoJ happens in the earlier parts of the month, so next week may see the start of more upside to UJ. However I can't help feeling that BoJ is probably happy with the current exchange rate and is less inclined to intervene. That just leaves investment buying of EJ and with the Euro tanking at the moment it will not push UJ particularly hard.
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With the ECB seeing a high EUR as negative thing, there's a lot of chances that the USD will be gain more than the Euro in 2014
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I have a small short 1258 now to reach 1248 and look for reversals there between 1240-1248.
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FOMC: $10 billion taper to $65B/month - no major surprise there.
- 318 replies
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Here is an interesting article about Euro zone if you are long on EU http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-27/euro-jobless-record-seen-in-legacy-of-italians-giving-up.html Euro Jobless Record Not Whole Story as Italians Give Up Situation Worse The euro area’s official unemployment rate includes only those who actively sought work in the previous four weeks and are available to start within the next two weeks. The labor underutilization rate compiled by Bloomberg using Eurostat data for the third quarter includes the official unemployed as well as those willing to work who have given up looking for a job or are not immediately available. Among euro-zone countries, Italy has the largest group of potential workers who don’t appear on official unemployment statistics. The gap between the country’s labor underutilization rate, encompassing people between the ages of 15 and 74, and its unemployment rate is more than twice that of Spain and more than five times that of Greece. “The situation in the region, and in Italy in particular, is certainly worse than it seems at first glance,” Raffaella Tenconi, an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch in London, said by telephone. “This is particularly evident when you look at youth unemployment and participation rates.” In Di Gilio’s home province of Naples the local youth unemployment rate in 2012 was 53.6 percent compared to a national average of 35.3 percent. Euro at 1.30 Pound at 1.55 that's my bias and I could be wrong but facts are bleak on Euro zone
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usdjpy and eurusd move somewhat parallel ...eurjpy has bigger vaiation levels though.. usdjpy is near a very good buy zone bt this range has become so unpredictable.... Im still not sure where i shd go a log at 102 with target 105 which is think could happen if it gets a nice support here.. What do u say what i should do?
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1.399 / 1.41 is a place you should look at for building a small long term short position ... between 1.35/1.37 is just not worth it! You will get a minimum 300 pips and if you are really lucky maybe 650 P.
- 318 replies
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A bit old bt still a read.. Interview with Mario Draghi, President of the ECB, Publication date: 23 January 2014 ECB: Interview with Neue Zürcher Zeitung
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Possibly get to 6300? Or with good UK data will it fly past the 6667 resistance next week? Lots of support at 6500.
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I do enjoy working from home. i find it much better having worked at physical environments at 2 different places. Much more relaxed and easy going. But recently i have been thinking i shd do in the physical environment bt on my own basis like starting a small physical business or something. I think there shd also be some physical aspect of work in life be it small.
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Here is some interesting news that might make some short sellers happy: Christine Lagarde and Drahi coming out with some dovish talk at Davos... http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/0...A0O0D820140125 ....
- 318 replies
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1/23/2014 Stryker Boosts PT on Stryker ($SYK) to $75, Maintains 'Hold' Rating Into Q4 Report Medivation ($MDVN) PT Raised at Goldman Sachs Goldman Sachs Raises PTs on Las Vegas Sands ($LVS) and Wynn Resorts ($WYNN) Apple ($AAPL) PT Raised to $700 at Avondale Partners JPMorgan Upgrades Alcoa ($AA) to Overweight; Analyst Sees Tightening Aluminum Market Cantor Boosts PT on Syneron Medical ($ELOS); Sees Tough Q4, But FY4 Should Fare Well Google ($GOOG) PT Raised to $1450 at Pacific Crest Roth Capital Boosts PT on Keryx Biopharma ($KERX) to $30 Herbalife ($HLF) PT Raised to $94 at Barclays Virtusa ($VRTU) Target Priced Raised to $41 at Needham & Company Chardan Capital Markets Starts Hemispherx ($HEB) at Buy, $3 PT Nomura Securities Starts Hilton Worldwide ($HLT) at Buy, $26 PT Needham & Company Upgrades Sarepta Therapeutic ($SRPT) to Buy, $36 PT Goldman Sachs ($GS) Target Priced Lifted to $200 at FBR Capital Post Q4 Elizabeth Arden ($RDEN) PT Reduced to $25-$27 at Wells Fargo Alnylam Pharma ($ALNY) Target Raised to $108 at Deutsche Bank Illumina ($ILMN) Price Target Raised to $190 at JPMorgan FBR Capital Lifts PT on Expedia ($EXPE) to $85
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will be updating majority of the analyst ratings on stock companies from different many analysts one daily basis, the idea is to sum up all the ratings in one place especially those given with a Price Target (PT).
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Gold coud still be trading at much over-valued price even with so much drawdown in 2013 .. http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-incredible-gold-interest-rate-correlation-2014-01-22
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The resistance is at fibo 23% and if it pass 1.3652, i think Its bull time, but if it can't it may go back to 1.36150.
- 318 replies
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I think the price may go south (large swing) in next two weeks, but before that it has to reach 1260-1268, to satisfy the technical pre-requirements. Large selling order is accumulating around 1268. If 1275 breaks, then it will head to 1300.
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USDJPY---> Best to stay out and not enter a trade now unless you are very long and hoping for 110 this year but otherwise it could spike to 106 or drop to 103. S&P 500 could see mid 1850's next week so with a strong S&P 500 the Dollar could rally further.
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Best to stay out and not enter a trade now unless you are very long and hoping for 110 this year but otherwise it could spike to 106 or drop to 103. S&P 500 could see mid 1850's next week so with a strong S&P 500 the Dollar could rally further.
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EURUSD---> I'm thinking of long, it looks like we near the bottom ... Maybe 1.3555 stop three pips under , if it was taken i will try again near 1.35475 , targets 1.358
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Nomura Securities has predicted USDJPY will be at 114 by the end of 2014.. Better pull my longs now...
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New short opened at 1.3602. (High Risk Trade) I am seeing 1.3607 very hard to cross before we retest today's low. First TP around 1.3577, TP2 BE or 1.3527, if we continue to see in Asia the drop and 1.3560 being cross we may see new low tomorrow. Just a scalp as i was getting bored on few of my long term trades...
- 318 replies