Ammeo

Draghi’s failure to take action sees the euro rally, and the AUD is a big winner This week began steadily. Events in Russia/Ukraine dominated the headlines, but the impact on financial markets remained fairly limited. UK PMIs printed broadly in line with expectations, helping to support GBP/USD above 1.6650 early in the week. US data, including Personal Income and Spending, Manufacturing PMI, ISM Manufacturing all printed better than market expectations, but GBP/USD held on. As expected, the Bank of England left interest rates and QE unchanged on Thursday. GBP/USD jumped to 1.6739 on the announcement that the central bank would reinvest the £8.1bn principal from its maturing March 2014 gilt. It came back off almost as quickly, but the news provided good support to GBP/USD throughout the day and heading in to the end of the week. Cable then tracked EUR/USD higher as ECB President Draghi spoke following the ECB’s decision to leave interest rates in the EZ on hold, trading to a high of 1.6775 in advance of the US Non-Farm Payrolls data. Markets were looking for an increase in February payrolls of 151,000, and for the unemployment rate to remain at 6.6%, with the bad weather taken into account. The ECB left key interest rates on hold yesterday. More interestingly, ECB President Draghi continued to sit on the fence in his accompanying press conference, saying that the inflation outlook is currently no worse than it was last month and pointing out that there had been normalisation in short-end money markets. There were some growing expectations heading into the press conference that Draghi would announce a suspension of the bank’s Securities Market Program (SMP), a government bond purchase facility that has been in place for almost four years. He didn’t, and instead said that the bank would continue to monitor the situation and that sterilisation remains an option. The lack of any action, and the failure to signal future action, saw EUR/USD gap higher through stops under and over 1.38 and onwards to a high of 1.3872. Not everyone is totally convinced Draghi will be able to keep kicking his can down the road, and many feel that at some point soon, action will be needed to stave off the threat of deflation. Draghi?s failure to take action sees the euro rally, and the AUD is a big winner | Forex Crunch

EURUSD Surges As Draghi Disappoints Again Promises, promises. A lack of easing, aside from a promise of "lower for longer", has driven EURUSD back above 1.38 as the market is once again disappointed by Draghi's lack of exuberance. *DRAGHI SAYS UNEMPLOYMENT STABILIZING, REMAINS HIGH (umm, continues to rise every month?) *DRAGHI SAYS UPSIDE, DOWNSIDE INFLATION RISKS REMAIN LIMITED (umm, continues to plunge every month?) *DRAGHI SAYS RISKS TO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK ARE ON DOWNSIDE (umm, stocks are at record highs?) *DRAGHI SAYS REAL INCOME SUPPORTED BY LOWER ENERGY PRICES (umm, so no sanctions on Russia then?) But apart from that, Draghi is "nailing it"... We are sure a stronger currency will work wonders for the recovery... Just how cornered is Draghi - well you decide - after these comments... *DRAGHI CITES LOW INFLATION, WEAK ECONOMY, SUBDUED CREDIT *DRAGHI SAYS ECB EXPECTS RECOVERY TO PROCEED AT A SLOW PACE So why no "stimulus" - what's he worried about? EURUSD Surges As Draghi Disappoints Again | Zero Hedge

I think it would be better to wait for 6850-6900 zone and Go big short here. Long from here could be 6730 and short from 6850-6900.

ECB May Repeat Japan Mistake That Triggered Lost Decade The central bank failed to sound a deflation alert. “At present there is no reason to expect that overall prices will drop sharply and exert deflationary pressure on the entire economy,” policy makers wrote in their monthly report, signed off by the governor. That governor was Yasuo Matsushita and the report was published in January 1998. Within six months, Japan’s consumer prices excluding food began falling in a trend that would mark the next 15 years. The concern now for economists from Barclays Plc to Morgan Stanley and JPMorgan Chase & Co. is that European Central Bank President Mario Draghi risks making the same mistake as the Bank of Japan -- publicly playing down a deflation threat -- and ultimately may have to introduce quantitative easing. Among a series of similarities between 1990s Japan and modern-day Europe: Weak economic expansion after a series of shocks? Tick. A reluctance by banks to lend? Tick. A rising exchange rate? Tick. A debatable monetary-policy stance? Tick. “The risk of a Japanification of the euro area is high and rising,” said Joachim Fels, chief international economist at Morgan Stanley in London, who puts the odds of a price decline at about 35 percent. “Deflation wasn’t on Japan’s radar either.” ECB May Repeat Japan Mistake That Triggered Lost Decade - Bloomberg

ECB To Launch QE Thursday: Here's Why Growing disinflationary headwinds are likely to push the European Central Bank (ECB) toward launching a 300-500 billion euro asset purchase program on Thursday morning. Such a monumental shift in monetary policy posture from the ECB could deliver an outsized impact to global financial markets (although we have clearly seen some front running of this announcement in recent weeks). An announcement at the upper end of the 300-500 billion euro range along with open ended language (alluding to the possibility that the ECB could increase asset purchases past the 1 trillion market if needed) from ECB President Draghi could send global stocks and precious metals skyward. A few key charts from BNP Paribas help to illustrate why a QE announcement from the ECB on Thursday is quite likely: While the Fed has spent the last year and a half aggressively expanding its balance sheet, the ECB has allowed its balance sheet to shrink. M3 money supply growth has consistently fallen short of ECB target levels and private sector bank lending remains anemic. All of this adds up to a powerful set of disinflationary/deflationary forces throughout much of the eurozone. Only Germany appears to be immune from the eurozone disinflation plague, whereas, much of the eurozone periphery suffers with extraordinarily high rates of unemployment and stagnant economies. Here’s the money shot from BNP Paribas: “Asset purchases are increasingly necessary in order for the ECB to meet its primary objective of maintaining price stability. Inflation in the euro area has persistently surprised to the downside, eroding the safety margin against deflation. „ Additional conventional policy easing will not deliver sufficient monetary accommodation for the price stability mandate to be met. Thus, the ECB will reluctantly have to follow other central banks into balance sheet expansion via asset purchases.” ECB Set to Launch QE on Thursday | CEO.CA

Another Good article.. Eric Sprott On The "Golden Opportunity" | Zero Hedge

GBPUSD forecasts for the first week of march.. GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis March 3, 2014 Forecast » Fx Empire Network GBP USD Forecast | Forex Crunch

Eurocoin Indicator Rises For Eighth Month An indicator of the current economic situation in Eurozone increased for the eighth successive month in February, and remained in the positive territory for the sixth month in a row, a report released by the Bank of Italy revealed Friday. The eurocoin indicator, which estimates quarterly GDP growth in the currency bloc, moved up to 0.35 in February from 0.31 in January, marking the eighth successive monthly growth. The index has now stayed in the positive territory for the sixth straight month. The upturn was supported mainly by the overall performance of household and business confidence and of share prices, the report said. Eurocoin Indicator Rises For Eighth Month

Weekly and Monthly forecast of USDJPY... USD/JPY Fundamental Analysis March 3, 2014 Forecast » Fx Empire Network USD/JPY Monthly Fundamental Forecast March 2014 » Fx Empire Network

Some links to EURUSD Forecasts for the first week of March.. EUR/USD Fundamental Analysis March 3, 2014 Forecast » Fx Empire Network EUR/USD Forecast | Forex Crunch EUR/USD March 2014 Forecast

Eurozone Inflation Steady At 0.8%; Unemployment Remains High

Good Article on Gold.. Three warning signs from higher gold prices - Matthew Lynn's London Eye - MarketWatch

The EURUSD is jumping very sharply from the 1.3640 support zone. The pair is likely to find resistance at around the 1.3720/30 zone. If the pair fails around the mentioned level, then we witness a down move again in the pair towards the 1.3660 level again. We should wait for some time now, and observe price action very carefully.

German March Consumer Confidence At 7-Year High Germany's consumer confidence is set to improve to a seven-year high in March, reflecting upbeat income expectations amid stable labor market development, a closely watched survey from the market research group GfK showed Wednesday. The forward-looking consumer confidence index rose to 8.5 points from 8.3 points in February. The index was forecast to remain unchanged at February's originally score of 8.2. The survey results, based on around 2,000 consumers, indicate that private consumption is playing a key role in economic growth. The market research group predicted 1.5 percent growth in total private consumption during 2014. The largest Eurozone economy expanded 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013. Confounding expectations, detailed GDP data suggested no positive contribution to growth from domestic demand. After five consecutive increases, economic expectations registered a moderate fall of 3.4 points to 31.9 in February, survey data showed. In contrast to economic expectations, income expectations rose further in February, to 48.6 from 46.2. It improved slightly from the 13-year high of the previous month. In view of the economic recovery and the extremely stable development on the labor market, consumers are assuming that there will be a greater increase in their incomes again this year. Willingness to buy almost maintained its seven-year high of the previous month. The relevant index dropped slightly to 48.9 from 50.0 in January. Propensity to save also did not register any significant change. According to GfK, consumers are still confident that the German economy has overcome its weak phase in the previous year and is entering a solid upswing. In order to establish the upswing more sustainable, it is necessary to restart the investment engine, GfK said. Record low interest rates, gaining momentum in the global economy and lively domestic demand should boost the propensity of companies to invest.

ECB to take the QE plunge this year…finally Better late than never, right? Despite the myriad political, legal and financial obstacles, the European Central Bank will this year take the plunge and start printing money, several years after its counterparts in the United States, Britain and Japan. That’s the view of economists at BNP Paribas, one of the first major financial institutions to predict the ECB will use the printing press, the central bank weapon of last resort, to slay the dragon of deflation and steer the fragile economy away from recession once and for all: Asset purchases are increasingly necessary in order for the ECB to meet its primary objective of maintaining price stability. Inflation in the euro area has persistently surprised to the downside, eroding the safety margin against deflation. Additional conventional policy easing will not deliver sufficient monetary accommodation for the price stability mandate to be met. Thus, the ECB will reluctantly have to follow other central banks into balance sheet expansion via asset purchases. Annual inflation in the euro zone is currently running at 0.7 percent. That’s well below the ECB’s target of “below, but close to, 2% over the medium term” and according to BNP Paribas “is likely to remain that way for a long time.” Many economists think it will fall even further – Goldman Sachs is penciling in just 0.4% for March. Against that backdrop, BNP Paribas reckons the ECB will buy between €300 and €500 billion of bonds in the initial phase of its asset purchase or “quantitative easing” programme. This will probably commence in the second half of this year and be spread across private sector and government debt. ECB to take the QE plunge this year?finally | MacroScope

ECB sees no deflation risk for now: Praet The European Central Bank sees no current risk of deflation nor signs of people delaying purchases, policymaker Peter Praet said in a newspaper interview published on Tuesday. Praet, who holds the economics portfolio on the ECB's Executive Board, told Belgian newspaper De Standaard that persistently low inflation would represent a risk. But this was at the moment being mainly driven by subdued food and energy costs. Energy prices are highly volatile. "Weak demand and high unemployment could also be playing a role," he said. The ECB's mandate is to deliver price stability, which it defines as inflation of close to but below 2 percent over the medium term. Euro zone inflation is currently running at just 0.8 percent - well below target. "We accept that price developments are weak and that the weakness is continuing in the medium term," Praet said. ECB President Mario Draghi said the central bank had not changed interest rates this month because of the need for more information about the economic recovery, putting markets on alert for a possible move in March, when the region's updated inflation outlook is due. The ECB holds its next policy meeting on March 6. ECB sees no deflation risk for now: Praet | Reuters

Draghi Says ECB Prepared to Add Stimulus If Deflation Risks Rise - Bloomberg

It was actually for the general audience,not for any specific person. I should have written it in a better way to be seen like being addressed to all audience. my bad there.

If you are bullish on the US economy this USD dip over the past 2 weeks is probably the biggest opportunity in months. If you can hold it... Once the data snapback starts in the next 6 weeks it will probably take about 3-4 blowout beat prints for it to be obvious that the US economy didnt suddenly fall off a cliff. Then the panic USD buying and treasury selling will set in.

Yes 14000 is was just my thought if it goes that high. Personally dont thing it'll be there that easily.

A pull back to $1,300(ish) puts us on top of the long term descending trend line from 2011, but there's support just above that around yesterday's low of $1,307, minor support at $1,293(ish), and $1,278(ish) is the January high and rising channel support from the December low which would be the optimal pull back. On the other hand, if gold breaks above $1,325 then forget about a pull back and look instead to the October high around $1,360.

So we have something near 1.378x (weekly close)...and 1.383x very high volume area non retraced. It's not going there 100% of the time, but that's the area i'll closely monitor for big shorts. Then i don't know, maybe near 1.41xx/1.42xx daily for some shorts if it breaks 1.40....

Bloomberg forecasters have given it a bearish outlook atm, more here.. Top Two Gold Forecasters Remain Bearish After 2014 Rally - Bloomberg

The European Commission president says member states are unlikely to agree to a newly independent Scotland joining the EU. The Scottish government says his comments are "preposterous". Full story here : http://www.channel4.com/news/difficu...to-join-the-eu

hmmm, not a bad idea though. Some traders like to work alone and some want to work in a group. For those who want to work in a gr8 this could be a good way to communicate with each other quickly.