Ammeo

U.S. Treasury's Lew welcomes Chinese currency move UPDATE 1-U.S. Treasury's Lew welcomes Chinese currency move | Reuters

Markets on edge as Crimea votes to quit Ukraine U.S. stock investors will start the week on edge as markets worldwide react to the referendum that appears to back Russia's claim to Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, even if the vote result is not internationally recognized. U.S. stocks closed on Friday with their largest weekly drop in the last seven weeks as the worst confrontation between Russia and the West since the end of the Cold War continues to unfold. Markets were also haunted by concerns over a slowdown in China's economy. Dozens of Russians involved in Moscow's gradual takeover of Crimea face U.S. and European Union travel bans and asset freezes on Monday. Russian state media quoted an exit poll as saying 93 percent of voters supported union with Russia. The White House rejected the referendum and called Russia's actions "dangerous and destabilizing." "There's an open question as to who suffers most," said Sam Wardwell, investment strategist at Pioneer Investments in Boston, about the planned economic sanctions. "The EU is dependent on Russian natural gas; it's an economic mutually assured destruction." Last week's record decline in foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries has led some to speculate that Russia has been cutting its dollar reserves ahead of possible sanctions from the West. "It will be harder to make a new high (on the S&P 500) with these global and geopolitical effects overhanging," said Andre Bakhos, managing director at Janlyn Capital in Bernardsville, New Jersey. "I don't know if these warnings signs result in dire results, but they are certainly to be considered when making a macro bet." Markets on edge as Crimea votes to quit Ukraine | Reuters

CBC News - Uncertainty grips Ukraine military in Crimea I think tomorrow's vote will trigger a chain of political unrest, beginning with the veto from Russia about the "illegal" vote and China's abstain. I would think that these two powerful countries have something planned. Isolation of Russia does not mean that Russia is alone. They still have China as a powerful ally. With these in mind, I'm struggling to see how GBPUSD will continue up soon. Reason being, in a situation of political unrest the market seems to see GBP as a risky currency and tend to switch to "safe haven" JPY, USD and gold. Perhaps, I will stay away from GBP and switch to easier pair, XAUUSD

Weekly outlook: March 17 - 21 The yen rose against the dollar and the euro on Friday as safe haven demand was bolstered by fears over an economic slowdown in China and tensions over the crisis in Ukraine, ahead of a referendum in Crimea. USD/JPY ended Friday’s session down 0.44% to two-week low of 101.34. For the week, the pair lost 1.84%, the largest weekly decline since late January. EUR/JPY was down 0.12% to 141.02 at the close, after falling as low as 140.45 earlier. Investor sentiment was hit as weak economic reports from China raised fresh concerns over the strength of the world’s second-largest economy. On Thursday, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang warned that the economy faced "severe challenges" in 2014. Fears over problems in China’s financial sector also sapped risk appetite following the country’s first domestic bond default this month. Meanwhile, tensions between Russia and the West remained high ahead of Sunday's referendum in Ukraine’s Crimea region, now controlled by pro-Russian forces, on whether citizens want to join Russia. The referendum has been condemned as "illegal" by Kiev and the West. The traditional safe haven Swiss franc was also stronger against the dollar, with USD/CHF down 0.26% to 0.8721 on Friday, not far from Thursday’s low of 0.8698, the weakest level since October 2011. The euro moved higher against the dollar on Friday, with EUR/USD up 0.33% to 1.3913 at the close, holding below Thursday’s peaks of 1.3966, the strongest level since October 31, 2011. The euro lost ground against the dollar and the yen on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the strong euro was putting downward pressure on euro zone inflation. Draghi said the strength of the euro was becoming increasingly relevant to the bank’s assessment of price stability, indicating growing concerns that the appreciation of the euro could undermine the fragile recovery in the euro area.

The EUR/USD is on fire. Catching bids all week. But Thursday provided a huge bearish engulfing reversal pattern so caution ahead. Russia sold 100 billion of US Treasuries this week and it appears they may have been Euros in place which would explain the demand we saw.

EUR/USD Forecast March 17-21 EUR/USD had a successful week, rising to a new 2+ year high, overcoming obstacles.. Where is it headed now? Inflation data, Weidmann’s speech, German ZEW Economic Sentiment and EU Economic Summit are the main market-movers. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. It seemed like smooth sailing for the common currency: fears about China didn’t really hurt it, and some global optimism sent the pair to a two year high. Yet all this didn’t last: when Draghi opened his mouth and tensions rose in the Russia – Ukraine conflict, the euro took a hit but eventually staged an impressive recovery to high ground. Can the euro break above 1.40 or is this already too much? Inflation data: Monday, 10:00. Euro zone consumer prices plunged 1.1% in January, pulled down by a fall in non-energy industrial products, registering the fastest monthly drop ever recorded. Annual inflation remained at 0.8%, far below the European Central Bank’s target. Economists forecasted a price rise of 0.9% in January. Greece and Cyprus remained stuck in deflation. Only three countries in the bloc, Estonia, Latvia and Slovakia, saw a price increase in January. CPI is expected to edge up 0.8%, while Core CPI is predicted to gain 1.0%. Jens Weidmann speaks: Monday, 15:00. Deutsche Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann will speak in Kiel. Weidmann supported ECB President, Mario Draghi’s view that economic recovery is moderate but still fragile and called the Euro-zone citizens to trust the ECB to handle monetary policy to achieve price stability. German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. The ZEW survey of economic sentiment in Germany fell to 55.7 points in February, dropping 6 points from the previous month. The weak reading was influenced by uncertainties regarding the employment condition, US concerns that the current economic growth could lose momentum and emerging economies volatility. The ZEW survey is expected to decline to 52.3. ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. Economic expectations in the euro zone, declined in February by 5.4 points to 68.5. Analysts expected a higher reading of 73.9. The decline in sentiment may attributed to concerns about U.S. economic recovery, and market volatility in emerging markets. Despite the relatively weak reading, ZEW President Clemens Fuest believes this decline in economic expectations is a temporary setback, since the majority of surveyed financial market experts remain optimistic. A further decline to 67.3 is expected now. EU Economic Summit: Thursday. A European Union summit in Brussels will seek ways to enhance the European industrial base as a driver for economic employment growth. “The regulatory framework both at European and national levels must be made more conducive towards investment and innovation and the reassuring of manufacturing jobs,” the document adds, referring to a drive to reverse a trend of losing employment to other regions of the world. The summit, will also hold “a first policy debate on the framework for climate and energy in the period from 2020 to 2030 and agree on the way forward in terms of orientations and procedure. EUR/USD Forecast March 17-21 | Forex Crunch

EUR/USD: What Is The Level That Could Really Trigger ECB Easing? - BTMU The euro has pared some its recent gains overnight following comments from ECB President Draghi on the strengthening of the effective euro exchange rate and how this had a significant impact on current levels of inflation and price stability. In this regard, Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ (BTMU) thinks that Draghi's comments are not a game changer for the EUR arguing that the ECB’s staffs’ average forecast for inflation in 2016 is already low at 1.5%, and this already signals that a further significant strengthening of the euro would likely trigger additional ECB easing by increasing the likelihood that inflation undershoots their target. "In the near-term such euro specific rhetoric from the ECB may help to dampen further euro upside momentum although it is unlikely to prevent further gains. The EUR/USD rate may be able to rise towards the 1.45-level before triggering further ECB easing which would weigh more heavily upon the euro," BTMU projects. "ECB President Draghi remains optimistic that the ECB’s forward guidance will over time place downward pressure upon the euro as the real interest rate spread between the euro area and the rest of the world will probably fall. However, in the near-term the ongoing shrinking of the ECB’s balance sheet continues to support a stronger euro making ECB monetary policy appear relatively tight," BTMU adds. eFXnews : EUR/USD: What Is The Level That Could Really Trigger ECB Easing? - BTMU

Ukraine, FOMC To Dominate Gold Market Direction; Next Stop $1,400? An election in Ukraine’s Crimea and a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee will influence gold trade next week, as the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical events. The Federal Reserve monetary-policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday will give gold traders further ideas of what the Fed thinks regarding the economic outlook. So far most economists are still expecting the Fed to stay on track with reducing its quantitative easing program. April gold futures rose Friday, settling at $1,379 an ounce on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 3% on the week. May silver rose Friday, settling at $21.413 an ounce, up 2.3% on the week. In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 25 responded this week. Twenty-one see prices up, while two see prices down and two see prices trading sideways or neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts. Gold prices rallied sharply this week on safe-haven bids as tensions between Ukraine and Russia over the Crimea continued. Several gold-market analysts said Sunday’s Crimean referendum on whether or not to join Russia will give gold direction to start the week. Most other nations said they will not recognize the vote, and analysts at Nomura said if the referendum passes, “we expect relations between Kiev’s new government and Moscow to deteriorate further, and this could continue to weigh on global risk sentiment.” Weaker global risk sentiment usually translates into demand for safe-haven assets, like gold. Gold also found support from concerns about China’s economy and some of its businesses after one of its firms failed to make a bond payment, and gold-market analysts said these worries also drove some investors into gold. A few firms like Nomura and Barclays said Friday because of the softer Chinese data, they are lowering their Chinese first-quarter gross domestic growth targets, with both reducing the target to 7.3%. Due to gold’s strong gains, there’s a lot of talk in the market of the yellow metal being able to build up enough momentum to test $1,400 as soon as next week. One bullion dealer said while physical demand remains subdued, the interest by the investor community is helping to drive prices higher. “We’ve heard a few of the fund customers are getting interested again in gold, and there were some additions to the ETFs (exchange-traded funds). With the dollar under pressure and the situation in Russia being not so great, I think there will be interest to push to $1,400 next week to see what’s up there,” the bullion dealer said. Weekly Outlook

Forex Weekly Outlook March 17-21 The yen is the winner of a turbulent trading week which saw new highs for the euro and the kiwi. The first rate decision by Janet Yellen is the main event. Among other highlights are the German Economic Sentiment, speeches by heads of central banks, UK employment data, as well as US employment and housing data. These are the main market movers on Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the influential events for the coming week. US data was mixed: retail sales advanced nicely,rising 0.3%, in February but this came on top of downwards revisions. Furthermore, US jobless claims edged down by 9,000 to 315,000, its best reading since November 2013, However, consumer confidence dropped. EUR/USD climbed to new 2+ year highs, and was only temporarily hit by a comment from Draghi. NZD/USD reached new highs on a hawkish RBNZ statement that accompanied the rate hike and AUD/USD managed to focus on local job strength while escaping worries about China. Action will probably continue. Updates: German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. German economic climate dropped more than expected in February, reaching 55.7 from 61.7 in the previous month, thanks to emerging market concerns. This release marked the second consecutive fall; economists expected a small decline to 61.3. Nevertheless, analysts expect Germany to continue its growth trend this year leading its Eurozone members to recovery. German economic climate is forecasted to decline further to 52.3. US Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. Building permits plunged in January to 937,000, falling 5.4% from December. The release was considerably weaker than the 980,000 expected by analysts. The unusually cold weather and snow storms stopped growth in the housing sector. On an annual basis, starts fell 2.0% from January 2013, to 898,000, the lowest level since August 2011, while building permits, were up 2.4% from a year ago. A stronger reading of 970,000 is expected this time. US inflation data: Tuesday, 12:30. U.S. consumer prices increased in January, thanks to a rise in demand for electricity and heating fuel, caused by the cold winter. Consumer Price Index climbed 0.1%, following a 0.3% in December. In the 12 months to January, consumer prices edged up 1.6% after increasing 1.5% in December. Meanwhile, core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food components, also rose 0.1% for a second consecutive month. In the 12 months to January, core CPI rose 1.6%, following a 1.7% increase in December. Both CPI and core CPI are expected to gain 0.1%. UK employment data: Wednesday, 9:30. The British unemployment rate unexpectedly climbed in the fourth quarter, reaching 7.2% from 7.1% in the third quarter a fact that compelled the BOE to keep interest rates unchanged. Meantime, jobless claims fell 27,600 in January, beating economists forecast of 18,300. However the pace of decline will moderate in the coming months due to a certain decline in economic activity. For as long as unemployment remains above the 7% threshold, monetary policy will not be changed. Jobless claims are expected to decline by 23,300 while unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 7.2%. Fed decision: Wednesday, 18:00, press conference at 18:30. The taper train is on track and the Fed is very likely to reduce its bond buys by another $10 billion. After the Fed prepared markets for the tapering during a long period of time, only a major disaster could change the course. The recent OK NFP left little doubts. In addition, the composition of the FOMC is more hawkish, and Yellen would need to prove she is tough enough. It is her first decision and being a woman probably also plays a role. In the press conference, she is expected to show continuity, following in the footsteps of Bernanke, and in line with her recent lengthy testimonies in Washington. The move is largely priced in, and a strengthening of the dollar in the aftermath of the decision could be quite limited. http://www.forexcrunch.com/forex-weekly-outlook-march-17-21/

German GDP Growth Likely To Rise In 2014 And 2015: Bundesbank The pace of growth in the Germany economy is likely to increase again in 2014 and 2015, Bundesbank said in an annual statement on Thursday. The low level of interest rates, low unemployment rate, and a distinct increase in earnings, are fueling housing construction. However, foreign trade has not provided any positive impetus of late. Even so, the current account surplus remains high, the central bank noted. The central bank's profit increased to EUR 4.6 billion in 2013 from EUR 664 million in 2012. The higher profit came as provisions for risks decreased compared to last year. "The risk situation has eased to some extend because of the decline in the volume of refinancing loans and the reduced holdings of government bonds," Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann said. However, he added that it would not be appropriate to run down the risk provisions, as the lower key interest rates meant that the Bundesbank was likely to post a smaller profit in 2014. German GDP Growth Likely To Rise In 2014 And 2015: Bundesbank

ECB's Praet Says Policy Stance To Remain As It Is Despite Economic Improvements ECB's Praet Says Policy Stance To Remain As It Is Despite Economic Improvements

The King of Currencies has said it.. George Soros: Germany botched crisis response and EU may not survive It’s no secret that Geroge Soros thinks Germany has bungled the response to Europe’s debt crisis with its insistence on across-the-board austerity. On Wednesday, the billionaire hedge-fund legend said he feared the European Union was headed for “long-lasting stagnation” and that the pan-European institution might not survive it. “My hope is that Germany is going to change and realize that that the policy of austerity is counterproductive,” Soros told the BBC. Germany’s collective memory is of inflation, Soros said, referring to the hyperinflation that followed World War I and is often described as sowing the seeds for the rise of the Nazis. As a result, German policy makers “continue fighting inflation when the threat is deflation,” Soros said. The billionaire, in a separate event in London, said Germany’s decision to remain in the euro zone “fulfilled my worst expectations,” CNBC reported. A German exit, which he had advocated previously, would have resulted in a tough but difficult “quick fix” that would have let the region rebalance. Instead, the EU has been transformed into a “creditor-debtor relationship” that is endangering the organization. Soros is promoting his new book, “The Tragedy of the European Union.” While Soros is echoing past complaints, some of his recent predictions about Germany and Europe haven’t panned out. Soros in September 2012 predicted that the euro-zone recession would intensify and engulf Germany within six months. Instead, the euro zone slowly returned to meager growth in 2013. That didn’t appear to hold him back much, though. The man who became famous by scoring a cool billion on his bet against the British pound back in 1992 earned an estimated $4 billion in 2013, in part by shorting the Japanese yen, according to Forbes, which put him atop the publication’s list of top earning hedge-fund managers. George Soros: Germany botched crisis response and EU may not survive - The Tell - MarketWatch

EUR/USD gains as ECB official downplays deflation threats The euro hit two-and-a-half year highs against the dollar on Wednesday after a key European Central Bank official downplayed deflationary threats. In U.S. trading, EUR/USD was trading at 1.3909, up 0.35%, up from a session low of 1.3843 and off a high of 1.3909. The pair was likely to find support at 1.3834, Tuesday's low, and resistance at 1.4169, the high from Oct. 31, 2011. The euro firmed after ECB executive board member Benoit Coeure said the monetary authority saw no indications of deflation in the euro area, though the risk of softer prices remains a possibility. "We don't see deflation in the euro zone. We see it as a possible risk, and we have to be ready to act against the risk if it materializes," he said, and his comments firmed the euro by allaying expectations the ECB remains poised to cut rates or roll out fresh stimulus measures. He added that the central bank has a number of policy measures at its disposal to address the issue. The euro strengthened broadly after the ECB left interest rates at a record low 0.25% at its policy meeting last week and implemented no new policy measures to shore up growth despite forecasting low inflation for years to come. Earlier Wednesday, data revealed that the euro zone industrial production contracted 0.2% in January from a month earlier, dragged down by a 2.5% drop in energy output. Analysts were expecting a 0.5% gain. EUR/USD gains as ECB official downplays deflation threats By Investing.com

Bank of Spain sees inflation at around 0.4 percent by end of year Bank of Spain Governor Luis Maria Linde said on Wednesday he saw annual Spanish inflation rising to around 0.4 percent or 0.5 percent by year end, though he said accurate predictions were difficult. "The ECB aims to keep inflation at around 2 percent, and we're a long way from that right now. This is one more problem for the recovery. We think it will be around 0.4 percent or 0.5 percent," he said during a conference in Madrid. Consumer prices in Spain were flat in February, official data showed on Wednesday. Linde also said the European Central Bank may have to take new measures in the coming months as long-term financing operations for European banks, known as LTROs, expire in 2015 Bank of Spain sees inflation at around 0.4 percent by end of year | Reuters

Euro Bullish Sentiment at Fresh Peak – The CFTC Report The latest report by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to March 4th shows that the bullish sentiment strengthens towards the Euro as well as net long increases with the GBP. In addition the Swiss Franc bullish bias is being built for one more week. At the same time the negative bias narrowed with the Japanese Yen to $9.7 billion, also the Canadian Dollar negative sentiment moderated by $0.65 billion. Lastly, the bearish sentiment is further built towards the Australian Dollar, with net short position increasing to $3.7 billion. The Euro had the biggest weekly change for one more week. The net long position increased to $4.03 billion, that took place until March 4th which is earlier than the European Central Bank monetary meeting. Thus, we would most likely see further building of the bullish sentiment on the common currency. The British Pound no longer maintains largest net long position among major currencies; the Euro takes now the lead. However, for another week, the British Pound has the largest Long/Short ratio. Traders have covered somewhat their short positions on the Japanese Yen and the Canadian Dollar. The Japanese Yen short covering was triggered by increased geopolitical risk due to Ukraine crisis, while Canadian bearish sentiment moderation is most likely influenced by higher energy prices. Euro Bullish Sentiment at Fresh Peak ? The CFTC Report | Forex Crunch

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence At 35-Month High Eurozone investor confidence reached its highest level since April 2011 in March, underpinned by a notable improvement in the current situation assessment, a survey conducted by the think tank Sentix showed on Monday. The composite confidence index rose to 13.9 from 13.3 in February, while economists had forecast it to rise to 14. However, it was the highest score since April 2011. The assessment of current situation climbed to 4.8, the highest since July 2011, from 1.8 in February. The current conditions index turned positive in February for the first time since August 2011. However, the expectations index declined for the first time since September. The score came in at 23.5 in March, down from 25.5 in February. Although there is a lot of talk about an expectations bubble concerning the euro area, Sentix said the expectations index signals that this bubble does not exist. Moreover, the gap between economic expectations and investors' assessments of the current situation is becoming ever smaller as expectations are adjusted to the downside. This might just be a breather, but it could also point to less economics dynamics for the Euro zone in the quarters ahead, said Sebastian Wanke, a senior analyst at Sentix. The European Central Bank forecasts the 18-nation bloc to grow 1.2 percent this year, before accelerating to 1.5 percent in 2015. According to a survey from Bank of France, the French economy is expected to expand 0.2 percent in the first quarter of 2014, unchanged from the previous estimate. Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence At 35-Month High

UBS has entered a fresh USD/JPY position as a trade recommendation from 103.00, targeting 105.00 initially and then 110.00, with a stop at 101.00.

Currently supported at 1330 level, but yet earlier bearish candle doesn't looks too well for bulls.

Week In FX Europe – Is It Time To Admit EUR Defeat? The Dollar is supposed to be king - that's what many had been hoping especially with a 'hawkish' Fed and a 'dovish' ECB running the show. Interest rate differentials are suppose to pull the "mighty" dollar higher against the 18-member single currency. If you ask a EUR bear, especially this week, you probably get the most frustrated of responses - they have been waiting patiently for most of this year to reap some reward from their 'short' EUR positions. It's not happening anytime soon, especially now after the ECB's reaction and rhetoric of this week's monetary meet-up. The ECB managed to wrong foot the markets that have been waiting for a response to the Euro-zone's low inflation problem. With rates on hold at +0.25% and Euro policy makers unlikely to provide any monetary stimulus soon, trades that been wagered on a looser policy are bleeding and will only ever support the EUR in the short to medium term. Betting against the single unit looks wrong and has the bleakest of bears nearly raising both their arms in defeat. Trading above the psychological €1.39 pre-NFP on Friday equaled levels last seen in October 2011. Most of the negative trades have been strapped on assuming that the ECB was going to counter their low inflation problem with one of their controversial policies - negative deposit rates or QE. The upbeat message that followed the ECB rate decision from Draghi at his regular press conference post monetary meet, would suggest that neither of the tools would be deployed anytime soon or if ever. Now the bears have to wait and gage the pullback from Friday's positive NFP report. If the USD does not get aggressively brought outright then the EUR bears could be in a heap of trouble - €1.40 and change looks so near! Week In FX Europe ? Is It Time To Admit EUR Defeat?

EUR/USD Forecast March 10-14 EUR/USD had a superb week, riding on the inaction of the ECB to reach levels last seen in 2011. Is it the beginning of a long rally? Industrial production data, Eurogroup and ECOFIN Meetings and inflation data are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. After the ECB made no changes in rates, Draghi gave the euro a big boost. as he refrained from taking action to ease pressure on short-term borrowing rates caused by European banks paying back LTRO loans. Some analysts expected Draghi would end sterilization of its SMP program. The lack of news was excellent news for the euro. In the US, Non-Farm Payrolls surprised to the upside, and this stopped the rally, but EUR/USD remains on high ground. French Industrial Production: Monday, 7:45. France’s industrial production declined 0.3% in December, following a sharp rise of 1.2% in the previous month. Economists expected a smaller drop of 0.1%. Output declined in transport equipment as well as energy products, however motor vehicles went up. French manufacturing showed signs of improvement, but remained in contraction as well as in the service sector. Francoise Hollande’s reform agenda may give the necessary boost to start recovery in the French economy. Industrial production is expected to increase by 0.6%. Italian Industrial Production: Monday, 9:00. Italian industrial production plunged 0.9% in December, following a 0.3% rise in November. Likewise, Italian Service and Retail sectors remained in contraction, despite some improvement in the manufacturing sector. Italian industrial production is predicted to gain 0.4%. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 9:30. Investor sentiment in the euro zone increased to 13.3 in February, reaching the highest level since April 2011, following 11.9 in January. Analysts expected a decline to 10.7 in February. Investors were more confident regarding the Eurozone’s economic outlook. Investor confidence is expected to rise to 14.3. Eurogroup meetings: Monday. The Eurogroup, an informal body includes Member States using the euro currency. It meets normally the day before the Ecofin meeting in Brussels and deals with issues relating to the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 7:00. Germany’s seasonal adjusted trade surplus, narrowed less than expected in December to €18.5 billion from a revised €18.9 billion in November. The release was above the €17.3 billion projected by analysts. Both the trade and the current account surplus were above expectations. Meanwhile, German exports in December declined 0.9% from November, but increased 4.6% on a yearly base. German exported mainly to other EU countries, followed by exports to countries outside the single market. Surplus is expected to rise to €19.3 billion.

Forex Analysis: EUR/USD Reaches New Long-Term High before Retreat EUR/USD (daily chart) reached a new 2+ year high of 1.3914 in early trading on Friday before retreating after the dollar-strengthening US Non-Farm Payrolls report. This high slightly surpasses the previous long-term high of 1.3892 that was established at the end of 2013. The upside breakout comes after a substantial rally on Thursday, and tentatively confirms a continuation of the generally bullish trend that has been in place since the July low near 1.2750. Within this uptrend, the past month has seen a rebound and steady rise from a pullback that hit a February low of 1.3475, near the key 38% Fibonacci retracement of the bullish trend. Despite the slight pullback after the U.S. employment report, the general bias currently remains bullish for the EUR/USD. With follow-through on the breakout and continued momentum above 1.3900, the bullish trend would have its next major upside targets around the 1.4000 psychological level and then the 1.4250 resistance level. Key downside support on another pullback continues to reside around the 1.3700 level.

Moody's changes outlook on Belgium's Aa3 government bond to stable from negative Moody's changed its outlook on Belgium's Aa3-rated government bond to stable from negative, citing stabilization of the country's banking sector leading to receding risks on the government's balance sheet. "The (banking) sector has been strengthened by a decline in legacy issues and in volatility related to the restructuring operations undertaken during the crisis and the authorities' decisive support efforts," the rating agency said in a statement. () Moody's also said it expects the government's fiscal position to continue to improve. The rating agency affirmed Belgium's Aa3/P-1 ratings. Moody's changes outlook on Belgium's Aa3 government bond to stable from negative | Reuters

Now a 5th Bank being accused of Gold Manipulation... Scotiabank one of 5 banks facing lawsuit over accusations of gold price manipulation | Financial Post

Wow! The NFP really has bite. Gold depreciated 2000 pips in only a few minutes. Quite astounding...

3760 is apparently the number to hit in order to form a top. The break above 3895 brought 4250 into play so 3760 needs to go or tech-wise is set up for 4250. This, from the weekly charts. Reiterating my stance, not touching EU until it reaches 4200 or so, going to use my equity on more UJ and NZD longs. Re-analysis after my miscall on short EU @3825 and even 3881