Ammeo

Upward resistances: 1315.60 / 1331.20 / 1342.50 Downward supports: 1307 / 1299.50 / 1277.60 Look out for these levels in coming week..

What Could Drive GBP to 1.70 As we have seen over the past week, it does take much to drive the British pound to fresh highs. Despite slower growth in construction activity during the month of April, sterling held onto this week's gains, ending the day just shy of its 4.5 year highs. Based on the overall momentum of the currency and the weakness of the U.S. dollar, we would not be surprised if GBP/USD hit 1.70 in the coming week. There's no shortage of catalysts including the PMI services report, industrial production and trade balance. If service sector activity accelerated last month, it could trigger an extended rally in the currency. The Bank of England also has a monetary policy announcement but they are widely expect to leave policy unchanged which makes it a nonevent for the British pound. Softer U.S. data or dovish comments from Janet Yellen could also drive GBP/USD higher. Its worth noting that speculators took profits on some of their long sterling positions this past week when the currency pair struggled to break 1.6850 according to the CFTC but now that it has, we would not be surprise if those long positions were reloaded.

Gold set for weekly drop on funds selling ahead of U.S. data (Fri May 2, 2014) Gold steadied on Friday after two losing sessions but was headed for its second week of losses in three on expectations of a robust U.S. jobs number and continued selling in the top bullion-backed exchange-traded fund. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust dropped 2.39 tonnes to 785.55 tonnes on Thursday, after losing 4.19 tonnes on Wednesday. The fund saw an outflow of 25 tonnes in April, the first monthly outflow after two months of inflows and worst since December. Its movements are a good measure of underlying investor sentiment. Spot gold was up 0.1 percent at $1,284.88 an ounce by 1006 GMT, ranging in the narrowest trade for four months. It was down about 1.4 percent for the week. U.S. gold futures for June delivery rose 0.7 percent to $1,284.20 an ounce. Investors were eyeing the U.S. April nonfarm payrolls report, due to be published at 1230 GMT, for further clues on the economy, which has shown strength in recent weeks after a severe winter hurt the first quarter. Gold prices would come under pressure if growth exceeded economists' expectations for a 210,000 increase in jobs and a fall in the unemployment rate to 6.6 percent. Earlier in the week, the Federal Reserve looked past a dismal reading on first-quarter U.S. growth and gave a mostly upbeat assessment of the economy's prospects as it announced another cut in its massive bond-buying stimulus. "For gold, the salience of the nonfarm payrolls seems somewhat reduced by the Fed seemingly being on auto pilot with regards to its tapering activity," Macquarie analyst Matthew Turner said. "A bad number, given the GDP data earlier this week, would call into question the strength of the economy, but seems unlikely to change the Fed's policy."

I have to agree with your Bearish sentiment on EURUSD . As long as 1.3900 holds i am playing the downside and it may go down to ur targets of 1.3775 or even lower.

1.7000 seems to be very real number by the end of the week. I am not trading gbp/usd at these levels though. Better wait for corrections to buy or clear technical reversal patterns to sell. Non Farm payrolls could help push the pair to critical 1.7000.

Coming into the year, a favorite trade was to sell the yen on expectations of easing. Those expectations continue to be dampened and the yen is one of the top performers this year and the best G8 currency this month. There is talk that official channels are buying USD/JPY to limit the downside. If so, that’s a factor that can’t last forever." So, there is intervention since the beginning of the year to maintain Yen weakness. I think the current confrontation with Russia will cause them to throw in the towel, as far as weakening the Yen is concerned. And we will see USDJPY under 100.00 in the near term. It might even hit 90.00 depending on how far Russia/West is willing to take the fight.

$1305 becomes important resistance level for the yellow metal, breaking which $1308 and $1315 can provide consecutive levels to the gold prices.

Though i'm biased short, current price action is neither short nor long ... the pair is stuck, waiting for a catalyst to drive it somewhere?! How many times $1.38 was broken to the upside, only the pair fall down! The last time $1.34 was attacked, only price to bounce higher! It's one of these situations, that you either wait for the direction to take place and follow - or you bet, with a 50/50 chance

Morgan Stanley's profits jump but Goldman Sachs's fall BBC News - Morgan Stanley's profits jump but Goldman Sachs's fall

German business software maker SAP warned on Thursday that it expects the negative impact of the strong euro to worsen after reporting lower than expected first-quarter results. The warning comes as SAP grapples with a short-term squeeze from its shift to web-based cloud computing, prompting it to push back its profit target as it waits for subscription income to gather pace and increases investment to keep up with the fast-growing market. Along with many other European companies that rely on revenues from abroad, SAP has been hit by the climbing euro . The currency has gained 2.3 percent on the U.S. dollar and nearly 6 percent against Japan's yen in the past six months. SAP said its software and software-related service revenues would fall 6 percentage points in the second quarter if exchange rates remain at March levels, while the hit for operating profit excluding special items would be 8 percentage points. That compares with a first-quarter impact of 5 percentage points on both software and software-related service revenues and operating profit. For the full year, SAP expects exchange rates to slice 4 percentage points from revenue and 5 percentage points from operating profit, though outgoing finance chief Werner Brandt said the company's global presence would give it opportunities to balance the currency effect. The currency warning followed what one Frankfurt-based trader described as "a weak report" on the company's first quarter. Its 2 percent rise in operating profit, excluding special items, to 919 million euros, missed even the most pessimistic forecast of 924 million euros in a Reuters poll of analysts. The average forecast was 961 million euros. Shares in SAP fell 3.2 percent by 1056 GMT and are down almost 9 percent this year, against a 5 percent decline for the European technology index. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/17/sap-results-idUSL6N0N90XE20140417

BOJ Kuroda maintains positive view on economy UPDATE 2-BOJ's Kuroda maintains positive view on economy | Reuters

Gold prices are restricted by $1330 - $1335 resistance zone while Silver seems capped by 20.60 level for the near term.

Seems like FT and WSJ are heavily focusing on draghi comments yesterday... Both stories on the front page. Should be a nice gap down tomorrow, ukraine situation looks dicey again as well. FT: Mario Draghi has signalled that the European Central Bank is getting ready to unleash new unconventional monetary policy in a bid to fight low inflation. Speaking after the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund in Washington on Saturday, the ECB president said the strengthening of the euro “requires further monetary stimulus”. FT.com / Registration / Sign-up WSJ: European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Saturday ratcheted up his warnings about the strong euro, saying a further rise in the exchange rate would trigger additional monetary easing to keep inflation from falling too low. "A strengthening of the exchange rate requires further monetary stimulus. That is an important dimension for our price stability," Mr. Draghi said at a news conference during meetings of the International Monetary Fund. Mr. Draghi's comments are notable because central bankers typically shy away from commenting on exchange rates set by the financial markets. http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...&mg=reno64-wsj

The US dollar had a terrible week, falling across the board. Can it stabilize now, or will the sell off continue? US retail sales, German ZEW Economic Sentiment, US Inflation data, Janet Yellen and US Haruhiko Kuroda speeches, Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the main market movers coming our way. The greenback took a big hit following the relatively dovish FOMC minutes release where forward guidance was forsaken for a promise of low rates after the bond buying program ends. Fed Chair Yellen also surprised markets by saying that bond buying will finish in 6 months. However, later that week, the Jobless claims release was a positive surprise, plunging 32,000 to 300,000 claims, the lowest level since December 2013, indicating the US job market is on a solid growth trend. Will the US economy continue its growth trend after the QE is over? In the euro-zone, weak inflation data from France was dismissed. Strong industrial data from the UK boosted the pound, upbeat Australian data energized the Aussie and the lack of action from the BOJ fueled the yen.

Greece ends market exile with triumphant bond auction Bailed-out Greece returned to bond markets with a bang on Thursday after a four-year exile, raising 3.0 billion euros and sending a major signal that the eurozone debt crisis is fading. Greece's EU-IMF creditors hailed the move which the Greek prime minister said had "opened the way for cheaper borrowing" for the recession-hit country. "We have opened the way for cheaper borrowing on the markets tomorrow," Prime Minister Antonis Samaras said in a televised address. "If all goes well from now on, next time the country will be able to borrow higher sums at lower interest," he said. The finance ministry said Greece had sold the five-year bond at 4.75 percent interest, with participation of long-term investors outside Greece expected to approach 90 percent. In Washington, IMF chief Christine Lagarde said the bond issue showed Greece was headed in the "right direction." "I see the issuance that took place today, which was massively oversubscribed, as an indication that Greece is heading in the right direction," Lagarde told reporters at the World Bank/International Monetary Fund annual spring meetings. EU vice-president Siim Kallas added: "It is an important sign that the Greek economy is starting to regain the confidence of investors, and reflects the positive effects of the far-reaching reforms undertaken by Greece." Greece ends market exile with triumphant bond auction ? EUbusiness

Technically EUR/USD breaks one downtrend resistance line; one more to go EUR/USD breaks one downtrend resistance line; one more to go | Forex Crunch

EUR/USD recovering on lack of urgency for QE http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-recovering-on-lack-of-urgency-for-qe/ EUR/USD April 8 – Gains Continue As ECB Keeps Options Open http://www.forexcrunch.com/eurusd-april-8-gains-continue-as-ecb-keeps-options-open/

The right agenda for the IMF The right agenda for the IMF | Lawrence Summers

The best selling (for a while) is likely in May, as its always in May maybe not for the Dow (although last yr was likely only an anomaly as too many were predicating it on tv) but for the GBP and Euro, they nearly always sell-off in May how far is anyone's guess - but both the GBP and Euro need a fairly decent pull-back, otherwise both may harm exports in the near future, the Central Banks may finally give the nod for a bigger pull-back to Weekly support, but will have to see....

A fantastic article by Paul Craig Roberts with charts on gold manipulation by the federal reserve... The Federal Reserve Has No Integrity - PaulCraigRoberts.org

More Wall Street Economists Now Expect The Fed To Hike Rates By June 2015 More Wall Street economists now believe the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the first half of 2015, as evidence builds that the U.S. economy has regained some momentum lost during an unusually rough winter, a survey showed on Friday. Eight of 18 U.S. primary dealers said they expected the U.S. central bank to increase its policy rate by the end of June next year, according to a poll conducted by Reuters among the Wall Street's top 22 firms that do business directly with the Fed. A Reuters poll done three weeks earlier showed only four primary dealers anticipated a rate hike by the first half of 2015 despite comments from Fed Chair Janet Yellen that suggested increases might come sooner. Friday's solid March jobs report concluded a busy week of economic data that indicated the economy has thawed along with much of the country, where shoppers were reluctant to leave their homes and companies kept a lid on payrolls. U.S. employers hired 192,000 workers last month, fewer than the 200,000 projected by economists polled by Reuters, the U.S. Labor Department said. It upwardly adjusted its January and February payrolls figures by a combined 37,000. Another key job measure, the monthly unemployment rate, held at 6.7 percent. Economists had expected a fall to 6.6 percent. "The Fed will be very happy with this type of jobs report," said Jacob Oubina, senior economist at RBC Capital Markets in New York. More Economists Expect Fed Rate Hike By June 2015 - Business Insider

The US dollar gained against most currencies and the euro was on the back foot in a busy week. And now, rate decisions in Japan and the UK, Australian employment data and the FOMC meeting minutes of Yellen’s first decision are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the main market-movers ahead. The all-important US Non-Farm Payrolls, slightly disappointed with a 192,000 jobs gain in March. The expectations were high since the winter storms were over and a strong rebound was anticipated. Nevertheless, the release still indicates recovery and consists of encouraging details. The taper train remains on track. Mario Draghi sent the euro lower on more dovish rhetoric and despite a lack of action. Is the ECB serious about QE? In the UK, PMIs weighed on the pound, and the loonie finally staged a recovery after a great Canadian jobs report. More volatility ahead? http://www.forexcrunch.com/forex-weekly-outlook-april-7-11/

EUR/USD Forecast Apr 7-11 EUR/USD fell for the third consecutive week. Is this the beginning of a downtrend or just part of a necessary correction? German Industrial Production, trade balance, French Industrial Production, ECB Monthly Bulletin and the G20 meetings are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD. The ECB decided on another “no-change” in policy leaving the main lending rate at 0.25% despite multi-year low inflation but the tone was certainly different. Draghi put QE firmly on the agenda and mentioned the exchange rate several times. This rhetoric sent the euro down. The not so impressive US Non-Farm Payrolls was not enough to allow for a recovery. EUR/USD Forecast Apr 7-11 | Forex Crunch

Draghi: ECB Open to Further Easing http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303532704579478982999818814?mg=reno64-wsj&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052702303532704579478982999818814.html

Survey Participants See Higher Gold Prices Next Week A majority of participants in Kitco News’ weekly gold survey look for the price of the metal to rise next week. Out of 33 participants, 18 responded this week. Eleven see prices up, while five see prices down and two see prices sideways or unchanged. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts. Survey Participants See Higher Gold Prices Next Week | Kitco News